MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR/USD Undergoing Shallow Corrective Pullback

Price Signal Summary - EUR/USD Undergoing Shallow Corrective Pullback

• S&P E-Minis traded higher Thursday and confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend. The breach of resistance paves the way for strength towards 4090.75, the Dec 14 high and leaves the 4100.00 handle exposed. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain above support at 4097.00, Jan 19 low and the contract is trading just ahead of key short-term resistance at 4206.00, the Jan 18 high. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and pave the way for a climb towards 4215.00, a Fibonacci projection.
• EURUSD bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the latest move lower appears to be a shallow correction. Key short-term support levels remain intact and note that moving average studies continue to highlight positive market sentiment. The USDJPY trend outlook is bearish and resistance at 131.58, the Jan 18 high, remains intact. Note too that the price is also trading below the 20-day EMA, at 130.72. A resumption of weakness would open 126.81, a Fibonacci projection. AUDUSD remains firm and traded higher Thursday. Resistance at 0.7063, the Jan 18 high, has been cleared this week. This has confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Recent cycle highs confirm an extension of the uptrend and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. WTI futures are consolidating and the contract remains below Monday’s high of $82.64. Key short-term resistance is located at $82.66, the Jan 18 high. Clearance of this hurdle would reinstate the recent bullish theme and expose $83.14, the Dec 1 high and $85.33, a Fibonacci retracement.
• Bund futures are trading lower and have pierced support at 137.53, the Jan 16 low. The move lower threatens a recent bullish theme and a clear break of 137.53 would signal scope for a deeper retracement near-term. Gilt futures remain in an uptrend and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Recent trend highs confirm a resumption of the short-term uptrend. The move signals potential for a climb towards 107.06, the Nov 24 high and a key resistance.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Shallow Correction

• RES 4: 1.1054 High Apr 4 2022
• RES 3: 1.1022 3.00 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - Oct 13 price swing
• RES 2: 1.0954 High Apr 11, 2022
• RES 1: 1.0929 High Jan 26
• PRICE: 1.0871 @ 05:54 GMT Jan 27
• SUP 1: 1.0781/0767 20-day EMA / Low Jan 18
• SUP 2: 1.0634 Low Jan 9
• SUP 3: 1.0607/1.0484 50-day EMA / Low Jan 6
• SUP 4: 1.0423 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band

EURUSD bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the latest move lower appears to be a shallow correction. Key short-term support levels remain intact and note that moving average studies continue to highlight positive market sentiment. The next objective is 1.0954, the Apr 11 2022 high. The 20-day EMA marks initial firm support - it intersects at 1.0781. A break of the average would signal the start of a correction.

GBPUSD TECHS: Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.2599 High Jun 7
• RES 3: 1.2558 High Jub 9, 2022
• RES 2: 1.2506 1.382 proj of the Sep 26 - Oct 5 - Oct 12 price swing
• RES 1: 1.2448 High Jan 23 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2381 @ 06:08 GMT Jan 27
• SUP 1: 1.2264/59 Low Jan 24 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2106 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 1.1842 Low Jan 6 and the bear trigger

GBPUSD is largely unchanged and remains below its recent highs. Short-term weakness is considered corrective and the current uptrend remains intact - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting positive market sentiment. Price has recently pierced resistance at 1.2446, Dec 14 high. A clear break would resume the uptrend and open 1.2506, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is 1.2259, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 0.8992 61.8% Retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.8980 High Sep 29
• RES 2: 0.8907 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8852/97 High Jan 25 / 13 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.8783 @ 06:33 GMT Jan 27
• SUP 1: 0.8767/22 Low Jan 24 / 19
• SUP 2: 0.8691 Low Dec 19
• SUP 3: 0.8630 76.4% retracement of the Dec 1 - Jan 13 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.8593 Low Dec 15

EURGBP traded lower again Thursday. The cross remains above the key short-term support that has been defined at 0.8722, the Jan 19 low. A break of this level would reinstate a recent bearish threat. On the upside, a resumption of gains would expose resistance at 0.8897, the Jan 13 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bull cycle that started early December last year.

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 134.77/81 High Jan 6 / 23.6% Oct - Jan downleg
• RES 3: 133.79 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 132.87 High Jan 11
• RES 1: 130.72/131.58 20-day EMA / High Jan 18
• PRICE: 130.18 @ 07:00 GMT Jan 27
• SUP 1: 128.36/127.23 Low Jan 20 / 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 126.81 1.382 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 15 - 21 price swing
• SUP 3: 126.36 Low May 24 and a key support
• SUP 4: 125.49 1.50 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 15 - 21 price swing

The USDJPY trend outlook is bearish and resistance at 131.58, the Jan 18 high, remains intact. Note too that the price is also trading below the 20-day EMA, at 130.72. A resumption of weakness would open 126.81, a Fibonacci projection - the bear trigger is 127.23, Jan 16 low. On the upside, clearance of 131.58 would be a bullish development. This would signal a short-term reversal and open 133.79, the 50-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 144.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 143.16 61.8% retracement of the Dec 15 - Jan 3 bear leg
• RES 2: 142.86/94 High Jan 11 / High Dec 28 and key resistance
• RES 1: 142.30 High Jan 25
• PRICE: 141.52 @ 07:07 GMT Jan 27
• SUP 1: 140.47/137.92 Low Jan 23 / Low Jan 19
• SUP 2: 137.39 Low Jan 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 137.03 Low Aug 29
• SUP 4: 136.02 Low Aug 25

EURJPY is consolidating and remains inside a tight range. The cross is holding on to its recent gains following the bounce from 137.92, the Jan 19 low. The 50-day EMA, at 141.77, has been pierced. A clear break of this average would expose key resistance at 142.86, the Jan 11 high. The broader trend direction is down. A reversal lower would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 137.39, Jan 3 low. A break resumes the downtrend.

AUDUSD TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: 0.7245 2.00 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 13 - Dec 20 price swing
• RES 3: 0.7202 High Jun 9
• RES 2: 0.7172 1.764 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 13 - Dec 20 price swing
• RES 1: 0.7142 High Jan 26
• PRICE: 0.7104 @ 07:59 GMT Jan 27
• SUP 1: 0.6994/6943 Low Nov 24 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.6872 Low Jan 19 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.6826 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.6688 Low Jan 3 and key support

AUDUSD remains firm and traded higher Thursday. Resistance at 0.7063, the Jan 18 high, has been cleared this week. This has confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on a move to 0.7172 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the 20-day EMA - it intersects at 0.6943.

USDCAD TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 1.3751 High Nov 4
• RES 3: 1.3705 Dec 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.3665 High Jan 6
• RES 1: 1.3434/3521 20-day EMA / High Jan 19
• PRICE: 1.3334 @ 08:02 GMT Jan 27
• SUP 1: 1.3304 Low Jan 26
• SUP 2: 1.3226 Low Nov 15 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally
• SUP 4: 1.3131 0.764 proj of the Oct 13 - Nov 15 - Dec 16 price swing

USDCAD bearish trend conditions have been reinforced. The move lower Thursday resulted in a print below initial support at 1.3322, the Jan 13 low. A clear break of this level would signal scope for 1.3226, the Nov 13 low and the bear trigger. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a downtrend. On the upside, the pair needs to clear 1.3521 to signal a reversal.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H3) Has Pierced A Key Short-Term Support

• RES 4: 142.55 High Dec 8
• RES 3: 141.70 High Dec 13
• RES 2: 140.73 High Jan 19 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 138.62/139.36 High Jan 26 / 25 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 137.50 @ 05:12 GMT Jan 27
• SUP 1: 137.00 Round number support
• SUP 2: 136.67 50.0% retracement of the Jan 2 - 19 bull run
• SUP 3: 136.04 Low Jan 10
• SUP 4: 135.71 61.8% retracement of the Jan 2 - 19 bull run

Bund futures are trading lower and have pierced support at 137.53, the Jan 16 low. The move lower threatens a recent bullish theme and a clear break of 137.53 would signal scope for a deeper retracement near-term. This would open 136.67, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 139.36, the Jan 25 high. A break of this hurdle would signal a base and a bullish reversal.

BOBL TECHS: (H3) Watching Support

• RES 4: 119.310 High Dec 14
• RES 3: 119.086 76.4% retracement of the Dec 7 - Jan 2 downleg
• RES 2: 118.880 High Jan 19 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 118.320 High Jan 25 and a key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 117.570 @ 05:22 GMT Jan 27
• SUP 1: 117.510 Low Jan 23 / 24
• SUP 2: 117.170 Low Jan 11
• SUP 3: 116.950 Low Jan 10
• SUP 4: 116.740 Low Jan 6

Bobl futures have recently tested support at 117.560, the Jan 16 low. A clear breach of this level would threaten a bullish theme and suggest potential for a deeper pullback and expose 117.260, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 118.320, the Jan 25 high. For bulls, a break would be a positive development and attention would turn to the bull trigger at 118.880, Jan 19 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H3) Support Stays Intact

• RES 4: 106.517 76.4% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 2 bear leg
• RES 3: 106.370 Low Dec 12
• RES 2: 106.296 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 2 bear leg
• RES 1: 106.025/106.155 High Jan 25 / 18 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 105.820 @ 05:26 GMT Jan 27
• SUP 1: 105.760 Low Jan 23
• SUP 2: 105.735 Low Jan 16 and a key short-term support
• SUP 3: 105.375 Low Jan 11
• SUP 4: 105.625 Low Jan 10

Schatz futures trend conditions remain bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective - for now. Support to watch lies at 105.735, the Jan 16 low. A break would alter the picture and instead signal potential for a deeper retracement. This would open 105.625, the Jan 10 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch has been defined at 106.025, Jan 25 high. A break would be bullish and expose the bull trigger at 106.155, the Jan 18 high.

GILT TECHS: (H3) Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 107.06 High Nov 24 and key resistance
• RES 3: 106.23 High Dec 9
• RES 2: 106.18 High Dec 12
• RES 1: 106.00 Round number resistance
• PRICE: 104.74 @ Close Jan 26
• SUP 1: 103.79 Low Jan 23 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 103.21/102.78 Low Jan 17 / High Jan 6
• SUP 3: 102.19/101.40 Low Jan 11 / 10
• SUP 4: 99.97 Low Jan 3

Gilt futures remain in an uptrend and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Recent trend highs confirm a resumption of the short-term uptrend. The move signals potential for a climb towards 107.06, the Nov 24 high and a key resistance. The first objective is the 106.00 handle. On the downside, initial firm support has been defined at 103.79, the Jan 17 low. A break would threaten the recent recovery.

BTP TECHS: (H3) Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 120.73 0.764 proj of the Dec 30 - Jan 12 - 16 price swing
• RES 3: 120.00 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 118.57/96 High Jan 25 / Dec 7 and a key resistance zone
• RES 1: 116.94 High Jan 25
• PRICE: 115.20 @ Close Jan 26
• SUP 1: 114.88/87 Low Jan 12 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 114.46 Low Jan 16 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 113.50 Low Nov 11
• SUP 4: 111.59 Low Jan 6

A bull cycle in BTP futures remains intact and recent weakness is considered corrective. The support to watch has been defined at 114.46, the Jan 16 low. A break of this level would threaten the bull theme and instead signal scope for a deeper pullback. This would open 113.50 initially, the Nov 11 low. Initial firm resistance is at 116.94, the Jan 25 high. A breach would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 118.56/96, Jan 19 and Dec 7 high respectively.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H3) Approaching The Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 4269.50 2.236 proj of the Sep 29 - Oct 4 rise from Dec 20 low
• RES 3: 4230.50 High Feb 10, 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: 4215.00 2.00 proj of the Sep 29 - Oct 4 rise from Dec 20 low
• RES 1: 4206.00 High Jan 18 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4191.00 @ 05:44 GMT Jan 27
• SUP 1: 4097.00/4085.40 Low Jan 19 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 3965.70 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 3753.00 Low Dec 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 3720.00 Low Nov 10

EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain above support at 4097.00, Jan 19 low and the contract is trading just ahead of key short-term resistance at 4206.00, the Jan 18 high. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and pave the way for a climb towards 4215.00, a Fibonacci projection. Note that the trend remains overbought. A pullback, if seen, would be seen as a healthy bull trend correction. Support to watch is 4085.4, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P (H3): Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 4194.25 High Sep 13
• RES 3: 4180.00 High Dec 13 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 4090.75 High Dec 14
• RES 1: 4077.00 High JAn 26
• PRICE: 4060.25 @ 07:16 GMT Jan 27
• SUP 1: 3949.56 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 3901.75/3891.50 Low Jan 19 / Low Jan 10
• SUP 3: 3788.50/78.45 Low Dec 22 / 61.8% of Oct 13-Dec 13 uptrend
• SUP 4: 3735.00 Low Nov 3

S&P E-Minis traded higher Thursday and confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend. The breach of resistance paves the way for strength towards 4090.75, the Dec 14 high and leaves the 4100.00 handle exposed. Further out, an extension higher would open 4180.00, the Dec 13 high and a bull trigger. Initial firm support has been defined at 3949.56, the 50-day EMA. A move below the average would be seen as a bearish development.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (H3) Bullish Focus

• RES 4: $93.97 - High Nov 14
• RES 3: $92.43 - High Nov 16
• RES 2: $91.39 - 76.4% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 9 bear leg
• RES 1: $89.18 - High Dec 1
• PRICE: $87.75 @ 07:00 GMT Jan 27
• SUP 1: $84.73/77.61 - 20-day EMA / Low Jan 5
• SUP 2: $82.37 - Low Jan 12
• SUP 3: $75.64 - Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $73.73 - 1.00 proj of the Nov 7 - 28 - Dec 1 price swing

Brent futures have recovered from Wednesday’s low of $85.41. The recent move through resistance at $87.85, the Jan 18 high, is a bullish development and cancels a recent bearish threat. Attention is on $89.18, the Dec 1 high. A break of this level would strengthen the case for bulls and pave the way for a climb towards $90.49, the Nov 17 high. Key short-term support to watch lies at $84.73, the 20-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (H3) Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $87.00 - High Nov 14
• RES 3: $85.33 - 76.4% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 9 bear leg
• RES 2: $83.14 - High Dec 1 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $82.66 - High Jan 18
• PRICE: $81.25 @ 07:04 GMT Jan 27
• SUP 1: $78.45/72.74 - Low Jan 19 / Low Jan 5
• SUP 2: $70.56 - Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $70.00 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $67.44 - 1.236 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing

WTI futures are consolidating and the contract remains below Monday’s high of $82.64. Key short-term resistance is located at $82.66, the Jan 18 high. Clearance of this hurdle would reinstate the recent bullish theme and expose $83.14, the Dec 1 high and $85.33, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, the support to watch lies at $78.45, the Jan 19 low. A break of this level would signal a potential reversal.

GOLD TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: $1998.4 - High Apr 18, 2022
• RES 3: $1982.0 - High Apr 19, 2022
• RES 2: $1963.0 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep 2022 bear leg
• RES 1: $1949.2 - High Jan 26
• PRICE: $1924.8 @ 07:19 GMT Jan 27
• SUP 1: $1896.7/93.7 - Low Jan 12 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1825.2 - Low Jan 5 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: $1797.1 - Low Dec 28
• SUP 4: $1774.0 - Low Dec 15

Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Recent cycle highs confirm an extension of the uptrend and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies remain in a bull mode position - reflecting the uptrend. The focus is on $1963.0 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm support to watch lies at $1893.7, the 20-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: $26.002 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $25.293 - High Apr 20
• RES 2: $24.729 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 1: $24.548 - High Jan 3 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $23.698 @ 08:04 GMT Jan 27
• SUP 1: $22.988 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $22.557 - Low Dec 16 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: $20.872 - Low Nov 28
• SUP 4: $20.585 - Low Nov 21

Silver continues to trade inside a range. The trend direction remains up and moving average studies are in a bull mode position. Fresh trend highs in December reinforced the positive theme. Furthermore, the move higher has maintained the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on $24.729, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support is at $22.557, the Dec 16 low.