MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EURGBP Outlook Remains Bullish

Price Signal Summary – EURGBP Outlook Remains Bullish

• The EUROSTOXX 50 futures trend direction remains down and recent gains are considered corrective. The breach last week of key support at 3456.00, May 10 low, reinforces bearish conditions and signals potential for weakness towards 3300.00 next. A bearish threat in S&P E-Minis remains present and the primary downtrend is intact. S/T gains are still considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bear mode condition and recent fresh cycle lows point to a continuation of the trend.
• USDJPY broke to new cycle highs Tuesday and this confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. The move higher also maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 136.88 next, the Oct 30 1998 high. EURUSD traded marginally higher Wednesday to 1.0606. Trend signals such as moving averages, continue to highlight a downtrend and short-term gains are still considered corrective. Recent weakness in EURGBP is considered corrective and the outlook remains bullish. Moving average studies are in a bull mode and this clearly highlights a positive trend outlook. AUDUSD is trading lower but remains above 0.6851, the Jun 14 low. Recent gains are considered corrective and the outlook is bearish. A stronger resumption of weakness would signal scope for a test of key support and the bear trigger at 0.6829, the May 12 low.
• Gold is consolidating. The yellow metal remains vulnerable short-term, despite its recent recovery. Price has recently failed to remain above the 50-day EMA and this highlights a bearish threat that also signals the potential end of the recent correction between May 16 - Jun 13. WTI futures are trading closer to this week’s lows. The contract has cleared support at the 50-day EMA and this strengthens the current bearish theme, signalling scope for a continuation lower.
• Bund futures traded higher yesterday but remain inside the current range as price consolidates. The trend outlook is bearish and the consolidation is likely a pause in the downtrend - a bear flag pattern. Gilt futures traded higher Wednesday but the outlook remains bearish. Last week’s cycle lows confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend. The move lower also highlighted an acceleration of the downtrend and moving average studies remain in a bear mode.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 1.0852 High Apr 22
• RES 3: 1.0787 High May 30 and a reversal trigger
• RES 2: 1.0654/0774 Bear channel top from Feb 10 high / High Jun 9
• RES 1: 1.0606 High Jun 22
• PRICE: 1.0569 @ 06:10 BST Jun 23
• SUP 1: 1.0445/0359 Low Jun 17 and 15
• SUP 2: 1.0350 Low May 13 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0341 Low Jan 3 2017 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0233 1.382 proj of Feb 10 - Mar 7 - 31 Price swing

EURUSD traded marginally higher Wednesday to 1.0606. Trend signals such as moving averages, continue to highlight a downtrend and short-term gains are still considered corrective. The recent reversal lower from the top of a bear channel, drawn from the Feb 10 high also highlights a bearish condition. The channel top intersects at 1.0654 and is a key short-term resistance. Attention is on 1.0350, May 13 low and the bear trigger.

GBPUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 1.2667 High May 27 and a reversal trigger
• RES 3: 1.2538 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.2518 High Jun 10
• RES 1: 1.2406 High Jun 16
• PRICE: 1.2255 @ 06:16 BST Jun 23
• SUP 1: 1.2161/2042 Low Jun 22 and 16
• SUP 2: 1.1934 Low Jun 14 and High Mar 20 2020
• SUP 3: 1.1795 0.764 proj of the Mar 23 - May 13 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1777 Low Mar 26 2020

GBPUSD is consolidating and remains above 1.1934, the Jun 14 low and bear trigger. A corrective bull cycle is still in play as the pair holds on to its recent gains. The primary trend direction is down though and a move lower would refocus attention on 1.1934 where a break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. This would open 1.1795, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.2406, Jun 16 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 0.8852 50.0% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Mar ‘22 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.8762 1.00 proj of the Apr 14 - May 12 - 17 price swing
• RES 2: 0.8721 High May 26 2021 and Jun 15
• RES 1: 0.8634 High Jun 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.8622 @ 06:38 BST Jun 23
• SUP 1: 0.8557 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8503 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.8433 Low May 23
• SUP 4: 0.8393 Low May 17 and a key support

Recent weakness in EURGBP is considered corrective and the outlook remains bullish. Moving average studies are in a bull mode and this clearly highlights a positive trend outlook. The recent breach of resistance at 0.8619, May 12 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and the focus is on a retest of 0.8721, the Jun 15 high and bull trigger. A break would resume the trend. Firm support is seen at 0.8503, the 50-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 139.07 Bull channel top drawn from the Mar 4 low
• RES 3: 138.56 1.618 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 137.30 1.50 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 136.71/88 High Jun 22 / High Oct 30 1998
• PRICE: 135.55 @ 06:43 BST Jun 23
• SUP 1: 134.54 Low Jun 20
• SUP 2: 133.04/131.50 20-day EMA / Low Jun 16 and key support
• SUP 3: 130.43 Low Jun Low Jun 6
• SUP 4: 130.00 Round number support

USDJPY broke to new cycle highs Tuesday and this confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. The move higher also maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 136.88 next, the Oct 30 1998 high. A bull channel is also evident on the daily chart - drawn from the Mar 4 low. The top, at 139.27, is a near-term objective too. Key short-term support has been defined at 131.50.

EURJPY TECHS: The 144.25 Bull Trigger Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 146.74 High Dec 30, 2014
• RES 3: 145.00/58 Round number resistance / High Dec 31 2014
• RES 2: 144.58 0.764 proj of Mar 7 - 28 - Apr 5 swing
• RES 1: 144.25 High Jun 8 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 143.29 @ 06:56 BST Jun 23
• SUP 1: 140.62 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 138.29/37.85 50-day EMA and key support / Low Jun 16
• SUP 3: 136.25 Low May 30
• SUP 4: 134.99 Low May 25

EURJPY maintains a bullish outlook following this week’s gains and the extension of the bull run from 137.85, Jun 16 low. This has exposed the bull trigger at 144.25, Jun 8 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend and open the 145.00 handle. Moving average studies remain in bull mode, clearly highlighting current bullish sentiment. Initial firm support is seen at 140.62, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Key Support Still Exposed

• RES 4: 0.7343 61.8% retracement of the Apr 5 - May 12 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.7283 High Jun 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.7112 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.7069 High Jun 16
• PRICE: 0.6898 @ 07:01 BST Jun 23
• SUP 1: 0.6851 Low Jun 14
• SUP 2: 0.6829 Low May 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6805 Low Jun 22 2020
• SUP 4: 0.6647 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing

AUDUSD is trading lower but remains above 0.6851, the Jun 14 low. Recent gains are considered corrective and the outlook is bearish. A stronger resumption of weakness would signal scope for a test of key support and the bear trigger at 0.6829, the May 12 low. Clearance of this support would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 0.6805, the Jun 22 2020 low. On the upside, 0.7069, Jun 16 high marks a key short-term resistance.

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Price Structure

• RES 4: 1.3338 38.2% of the 2020 - 2021 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.3192 1.00 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 8 price swing
• RES 2: 1.3113 High Nov 23 2020
• RES 1: 1.3079 High May 17 and a bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2956 @ 07:05 BST Jun 23
• SUP 1: 1.2861 Low Jun 16
• SUP 2: 1.2837 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2789 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.2681 Low Jun 10

The USDCAD outlook is bullish and price is trading closer to recent highs. The pair cleared 1.3000 last week and the rally also resulted in a print above key resistance at 1.3077, the May 16 high and a bull trigger. A clear break of 1.3077 would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and pave the way for strength towards 1.3113, the Nov 23 2020 high. Initial firm support is at 1.2837, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U2) Bear Flag

• RES 4: 148.51 High Jun 10
• RES 3: 147.34 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 147.19 High Jun 13
• RES 1: 145.72 High Jun 22
• PRICE: 145.13 @ 05:07 BST Jun 23
• SUP 1: 142.56/140.67 Low Jun 17 / Low Jun 16 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 140.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 3: 138.68 Low Jan 2 2014 (cont)
• SUP 4: 138.33 3.00 proj of the Apr 28 - May 9 - 12 price swing

Bund futures traded higher yesterday but remain inside the current range as price consolidates. The trend outlook is bearish and the consolidation is likely a pause in the downtrend - a bear flag pattern. Moving average studies are in a bear mode too and a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs remains intact. The focus is on the 140.00 psychological level. Firm resistance is at 147.34, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (U2) Downtrend Intact

• RES 4: 124.490 High Jun 3
• RES 3: 124.190 High Jun 9
• RES 2: 122.947 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 122.390 High Jun 15
• PRICE: 121.930 @ 05:13 BST Jun 23
• SUP 1: 120.760/119.940 Low Jun 17 / Low Jun 16 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 119.590 4.00 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 119.050 Low Jul 29 2011 (cont)
• SUP 4: 118.420 Low Jul 27 2011

The primary downtrend in Bobl futures remains intact and fresh cycle lows last week reinforce bearish conditions. Short-term gains are considered corrective. The current consolidation is likely a pause in the downtrend - a bear flag formation. Moving average studies are in a bear mode, highlighting current market sentiment. The focus is on 119.590 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at 122.947, the 20-day EMA.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U2) Trend Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 109.180 High Jun 3 and 9
• RES 3: 108.715 High Jun 10
• RES 2: 108.644 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 108.460 High Jun 15
• PRICE: 108.330 @ 05:00 BST Jun 23
• SUP 1: 107.885/107.705 Low Jun 17 / Low Jun 16 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 107.662 3.50 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 107.589 3.618 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 107.430 Low Jul 4 2011 (cont)

Schatz futures remain above recent lows and continue to consolidate.This pause in the downtrend appears to be a bear flag formation - a pattern that reinforces bearish conditions. Moving average studies are in a bear mode too highlighting current trend conditions. This suggests scope for a continuation of the downtrend and the focus is on 107.662 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at 108.644, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (U2) Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 115.55 High Jun 6
• RES 3: 114.28 High Jun 10
• RES 2: 113.78 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 112.67/113.25 High Jun 22 and 15
• PRICE: 112.37 @ Close Jun 22
• SUP 1: 110.57 Low Jun 21
• SUP 2: 109.89/60 Low Jun 16 / 4.50 proj of May 19 - 24 - 26 swing
• SUP 3: 109.33 Low Jul 8 2014 (cont)
• SUP 4: 108.98 Low Jul 7 2014 (cont)

Gilt futures traded higher Wednesday but the outlook remains bearish. Last week’s cycle lows confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend. The move lower also highlighted an acceleration of the downtrend and moving average studies remain in a bear mode, reinforcing current trend conditions. The focus is on 109.60 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at 113.25, Jun 15 high.

BTP TECHS: (U2) Tests The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 127.79 High May 26
• RES 3: 125.11 High Jun1
• RES 2: 123.88 Low May 9 and a recent breakout level
• RES 1: 120.98/121.13 20-day EMA / High Jun 22
• PRICE: 120.76 @ Close Jun 22
• SUP 1: 115.72/113.78 Low Jun 16 / Low Jun 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 113.22 3.764 proj of the May 12 - 24 - 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 112.31 4.00 proj of the May 12 - 24 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 110.83 4.382 proj of the May 12 - 24 - 26 price swing

BTP futures are holding on to recent gains. The primary trend condition is bearish. A bearish theme was reinforced last week as price traded lower, confirming an extension of the trend. This maintains a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. A resumption of weakness would open 113.78, Jun 14 low. Initial firm resistance is at 120.98, the 20-day EMA. The average has been tested, a clear break would signal scope for a stronger bounce.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U2) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 3902.00 High Mar 29
• RES 3: 3840.00 High Jun 6
• RES 2: 3651.70 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 3567.00 High Jun 16
• PRICE: 3439.00 @ 05:28 BST Jun 23
• SUP 1: 3384.00 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3300.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 3241.70 1.382 proj of the Mar 29 - May 10 - Jun 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 3189.10 1.50 proj of the Mar 29 - May 10 - Jun 6 price swing

The EUROSTOXX 50 futures trend direction remains down and recent gains are considered corrective. The breach last week of key support at 3456.00, May 10 low, reinforces bearish conditions and signals potential for weakness towards 3300.00 next. Moving average studies remain in a bear mode condition, highlighting current trend conditions. Initial firm resistance is seen at 3651.70, the 50-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P (U2): Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 4396.75 High Apr 22
• RES 3: 4308.50 High Apr 28
• RES 2: 4057.77/4204.75 50-day EMA / High May 31
• RES 1: 3843.00/3903.24 High Jun 15 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 3758.25 @ 06:11 BST June 23
• SUP 1: 3639.00 Low Jun 17 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3578.27 0.618 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 3500.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 3384.75 0.764 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing

A bearish threat in S&P E-Minis remains present and the primary downtrend is intact. S/T gains are still considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bear mode condition and recent fresh cycle lows point to a continuation of the trend. The focus is on 3600.00 next, and below. Initial resistance is at 3843.00, the Jun 15 high. The next firm resistance is seen at 3903.24, the 20-day EMA. A break would signal scope for a stronger short-term recovery.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q2) Remains Below The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $125.04 - 1.618 proj of the May 11 - 17 - 19 price swing
• RES 3: $125.19 - High Jun 14 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $121.25 - High Jun 17
• RES 1: $116.25 - High Jun 21
• PRICE: $110.55 @ 07:00 BST Jun 23
• SUP 1: $107.03 - Low May 22
• SUP 2: $103.84 - Low May 19 and a key support
• SUP 3: $100.14 - Low May 11
• SUP 4: $98.32 - Low Apr 25

Brent futures traded lower yesterday and in the process, cleared support at the 50-day EMA. The break lower strengthens the current bearish threat and signals potential for an extension lower with the focus on $103.84 next, the May 19 low and a key support. Initial support to watch is yesterday’s low of $107.03, the intraday bear trigger. On the upside, initial support is seen at $116.25,Tuesday’s high.

WTI TECHS: (Q2) Maintains A Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: $122.68- 1.50 proj of the May 11 - 17 -19 price swing
• RES 3: $120.88 - High Jun 14 and key resistance
• RES 2: $116.58 - High Jun 17
• RES 1: $111.94 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $104.65 @ 07:10 BST Jun 23
• SUP 1: $101.53/100.66 - Low Jun 22 / Low May 19
• SUP 2: $99.36 - Low May 12
• SUP 3: $95.47 - Low May 11
• SUP 4: $93.45 - Low Apr 25

WTI futures are trading closer to this week’s lows. The contract has cleared support at the 50-day EMA and this strengthens the current bearish theme, signalling scope for a continuation lower. The break lower has opened $100.66, the May 19 low. A breach of this level would pave the way for a move towards $95.47, the May 11 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at $116.58, the Jun 17 high. A break would ease the bearish threat.

GOLD TECHS: Consolidating But Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: $1909.8 - High May 5
• RES 3: $1879.1 - Trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 8 high
• RES 2: $1878.4 - High Jun 13
• RES 1: $1861.4 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $1833.6 @ 07:16 BST Jun 23
• SUP 1: $1805.2 - Low Jun 14
• SUP 2: $1787.0 - Low May 16 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: $1780.4 - Low Jan 28 and a key support
• SUP 4: $1753.7 - Low Dec 15 2021

Gold is consolidating. The yellow metal remains vulnerable short-term, despite its recent recovery. Price has recently failed to remain above the 50-day EMA and this highlights a bearish threat that also signals the potential end of the recent correction between May 16 - Jun 13. An extension lower would open the key support and bear trigger at $1787.0, May 16 low. A break would resume the downtrend. Key trendline resistance is at $1879.1.

SILVER TECHS: Support Appears Exposed

• RES 4: $24.666 - High Apr 22
• RES 3: $23.974 - Low Mar 29
• RES 2: $23.278 - High May 5
• RES 1: $22.373/517 - 50-day EMA / High Jun 6
• PRICE: $21.352 @ 07:24 BST Jun 23
• SUP 1: $20.896/20.464 - Low Jun 13 / Low May 13 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $20.282 - 2.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 3: $20.000 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $19.581 - 2.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing

Silver is trading lower. The metal remains below its recent highs and the short-term outlook is bearish. Price recently tested levels above resistance at $22.446, May 27 high. A clear break of this level is still required to suggest scope for an extension higher and would also highlight a breach of the 50-day EMA, at $22.373. For bears, a stronger resumption of weakness would signal potential for a move towards key support at $20.464, May 13 low.