MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EURJPY Bearish Condition Strengthens

Price Signal Summary – EURJPY Bearish Condition Strengthens

• S&P E-Minis traded higher Thursday, marking an extension of Wednesday's climb that resulted in a breach of 4016.25, the Jul 22 high. The break higher confirms a resumption of the current bull cycle and signals potential for a climb towards 4145.75, the Jun 9 high. EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded higher Thursday, marking an extension of Wednesday's gains that confirmed a bull flag on the daily chart and a resumption of the current uptrend.
• EURUSD support to watch is at 1.0097, Jul 27 low. The pair is still trading below immediate resistance at 1.0278, the Jul 21 high. A break above this hurdle would once again resume short-term bullish conditions and signal scope for an extension higher. The sharp drop in EURGBP continued Thursday, reinforcing bearish conditions and putting the cross at new multi-month lows. The latest spell of weakness puts prices through 0.8367, the May 2 low. EURJPY traded sharply lower Thursday and in the process, the cross breached support at 136.87, the Jul 8 low. Clearance of this level strengthens bearish conditions and paves the way for weakness towards 135.40 next, a Fibonacci retracement.
• Gold maintains a firmer tone and is trading higher today. Current gains are considered corrective and attention is resistance at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at $1786.1. WTI futures continue to trade above the most recent lows. The contract however is also trading below the 50-day EMA, at $100.84. Clearance of this average is required to strengthen bullish conditions and signal scope for a stronger reversal.
• Bund futures maintain a bullish tone and the contract traded higher once again on Thursday. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and the break higher maintains the current bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The short-term outlook in Gilt futures remains bullish and the contract resumed its climb on Thursday. This highlights an extension of the recent breach of resistance at 117.09, the Jul 6 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Watching Resistance

• RES 4: 1.0423 Bull channel resistance drawn from the Feb 10 high
• RES 3: 1.0379 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.0359 Low Jun 15
• RES 1: 1.0223/78 20-day EMA / High Jul 21
• PRICE: 1.0214 @ 06:20 BST Jul 29
• SUP 1: 1.0097 Low Jul 27
• SUP 2: 1.0064/0.9952 Low Jul 18 / 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.9944 1.618 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.9883 1.764 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing

EURUSD support to watch is at 1.0097, Jul 27 low. The pair is still trading below immediate resistance at 1.0278, the Jul 21 high. A break above this hurdle would once again resume short-term bullish conditions and signal scope for an extension higher within the bull channel - the top intersects at 1.0423. A move lower, would instead raise the risk of a return back toward lows below parity, at 0.9952 (Jul 14).

GBPUSD TECHS: Challenging The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.2518 High Jun 6
• RES 3: 1.2406 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2332 High Jun 27
• RES 1: 1.2245 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.2217 @ 08:13 BST Jul 29
• SUP 1: 1.2052 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.1890/1760 Low Jul 21 / Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.1673 1.00 proj of the May 27 - Jun 14 - 16 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1640 Low Mar 25 2020

GBPUSD continues to trade higher, extending the recent recovery from 1.1760, the Jul 14 low. The pair has pierced the 50-day EMA - the average intersects at 1.2209. A clear breach would strengthen bullish conditions, signalling scope for a climb towards 1.2332, the Jun 27 high. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at 1.1890, the Jul 21 low. A break would signal a resumption of bearish activity.

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 0.8627 High Jul 4
• RES 3: 0.8585 High Jul 21 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8501 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8426 High Jul 27
• PRICE: 0.8380 @ 16:32 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 0.8346 Low Jul 28
• SUP 2: 0.8313 Low Apr 22
• SUP 3: 0.8302 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 and a key support

The sharp drop in EURGBP continued Thursday, reinforcing bearish conditions and putting the cross at new multi-month lows. The latest spell of weakness puts prices through 0.8367, the May 2 low. This strengthens the bearish threat and initially opens 0.8313, Apr 22 low. The Jul 21 high of 0.8585 has been defined as a key S/T resistance where a break is required to reinstate a bullish theme. Initial firm resistance is at 0.8501, the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Channel Breakout

• RES 4: 138.88 High Jul 21
• RES 3: 137.96 High Jul 22
• RES 2: 136.46/137.46 20-day EMA / High Jul 27
• RES 1: 135.70 Former channel support drawn from the Mar 4 low
• PRICE: 133.41 @ 05:44 BST Jul 29
• SUP 1: 132.17 Low Jun 17
• SUP 2: 131.50 Low Jun 16 and a key support
• SUP 3: 130.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 129.51 Low Jun 2

USDJPY traded sharply lower Thursday and bearish activity has resumed today. The pair cleared an important support at 135.50 Thursday, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Mar 4 low. The break strengthens current bearish conditions and has resulted in a move below 134.26, the Jun 23 low. This signals scope for an extension towards 131.50, the Jun 16 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 137.46, the Jul 27 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 143.85 High Jun 29
• RES 3: 142.32/36 High Jul 21 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 139.49/140.69 20-day EMA / High Jul 22
• RES 1: 138.13 Low Jul 26
• PRICE: 135.81 @ 06:45 BST Jul 29
• SUP 1: 135.40 76.4% retracement of the May 12 - Jun 28 climb
• SUP 2: 134.58 Low May 20
• SUP 3: 133.93 Low May 19
• SUP 4: 132.66 Low May 12 and a key support

EURJPY traded sharply lower Thursday and in the process, the cross breached support at 136.87, the Jul 8 low. Clearance of this level strengthens bearish conditions and paves the way for weakness towards 135.40 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is seen at 139.49, the 20-day EMA. Key resistance has been defined at 142.32, the Jul 21 high. A break would reinstate a bullish theme.

AUDUSD TECHS: Holding On To Its Gains

• RES 4: 0.7202 High Jun 9
• RES 3: 0.7141 76.4% retracement of the Jun 3 - Jul 14 downleg
• RES 2: 0.7069 High Jun 16
• RES 1: 0.7053 61.8% retracement of the Jun 3 - Jul 14 downleg
• PRICE: 0.7008 @ 06:51 BST Jul 29
• SUP 1: 0.6903/0.6859 20-day EMA / Low Jul 21
• SUP 2: 0.6786/6682 Low Jul 18 / 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6647 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6588 Low May 28 2020

AUDUSD is holding on to its recent gains and the short-term outlook remains bullish. A continuation higher would open the Jun 16 high at 0.7069, and potentially 0.7141 further out, a Fibonacci retracement. A strong reversal lower would instead refocus attention on the 0.6682 bear trigger, Jul 14 low, where a break would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend. Initial support to watch is at 0.6903, the 20-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Heading South

• RES 4: 1.3224 High Jul 14
• RES 3: 1.3188 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 2: 1.3038 High Jul 18
• RES 1: 1.2904/47 20-day EMA / High Jul 25
• PRICE: 1.2806 @ 06:59 BST Jul 29
• SUP 1: 1.2788 61.8% retracement of the Jun 8 - Jul 14 upleg
• SUP 2: 1.2763 Low Jun 13
• SUP 3: 1.2685 76.4% retracement of the Jun 8 - Jul 14 upleg
• SUP 4: 1.2633 2.0% 10-dma envelope

USDCAD maintains a bearish theme and the pair is trading at its recent lows. 1.2819, the Jun 28 low, has been pierced. A clear break of this support would strengthen bearish conditions and extend the move below both the 20- and 50-day EMA values. This would open 1.2763, the Jun 13 low. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is currently at 1.2947, Jul 25 high. A break would ease the current bearish threat.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U2) Northbound

• RES 4: 161.38 2.00 projection of the Jun 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 160.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 159.79 High Apr 4 (cont)
• RES 1: 158.19 1.618 projection of the Jun 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• PRICE: 157.72 @ 04:49 BST Jul 29
• SUP 1: 154.75/152.81 Low Jul 28 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 151.93 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 149.69 Low Jul 21 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 148.24 Low Jul 1

Bund futures maintain a bullish tone and the contract traded higher once again on Thursday. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and the break higher maintains the current bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 159.79 next, the Apr 4 high (cont). Key trend support has been defined at 149.69, the Jul 21 low. A break of this level is required to signal a potential top. Initial support is at 154.75.

BOBL TECHS: (U2) Bull Trend Extends

• RES 4: 130.000 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 129.950 2.00 projection of the Jun 16 -24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 129.001 1.764 projection of the Jun 16 -24 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 128.380 High May 12 (cont)
• PRICE: 128.000 @ 05:17 BST Jul 29
• SUP 1: 126.450/125.791 Low Jul 28 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 125.318 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 124.030 Low Jul 21 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 4: 123.010 Low Jun 30

Bobl futures outlook remains bullish and the contract traded higher once again yesterday. This confirms a resumption of the current uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 128.380 next, the May 12 high (cont). On the downside, key support has been defined at 124.030, the Jul 21 low. A break of this level is required to signal a reversal. Initial support is at yesterday’s 126.450 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U2) Resumes Its Uptrend

• RES 4: 110.855 High Apr 4 (cont)
• RES 3: 110.500 High May 26 (cont)
• RES 2: 110.412 1.50 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 110.260 High Jul 28
• PRICE: 110.135 @ 05:37 BST Jul 29
• SUP 1: 109.587 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 108.950 Low Jul 21 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 108.760/425 Low Jun 30 / Low Jun 28 and a key support
• SUP 4: 108.025 Low Jun 21

Schatz futures traded sharply higher Thursday to confirm a resumption of the current uptrend. The move higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and signals scope for a continuation of the bull cycle. The focus is on 110.412 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key support has been defined at 108.950, the Jul 21 low. Initial firm support is seen at 109.587, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (U2) Fresh Trend High

• RES 4: 121.07 High May 12 (cont)
• RES 3: 120.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 119.26 1.618 proj of the Jun 16 - 24- 29 price swing
• RES 1: 118.71 1.50 proj of the Jun 16 - 24- 29 price swing
• PRICE: 118.45@ Close Jul 28
• SUP 1: 116.70 Low Jul 28
• SUP 2: 116.07 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 114.08/113.03 Low Jul 8 / Low Jun 30
• SUP 4: 111.72 Low Jun 29 and key near-term support

The short-term outlook in Gilt futures remains bullish and the contract resumed its climb on Thursday. This highlights an extension of the recent breach of resistance at 117.09, the Jul 6 high. The move higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and paves the way for a climb towards 118.71 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support is unchanged at 114.08, the Jul 8 low. Initial firm support is at 116.07.

BTP TECHS: (U2) Sights Are On The Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 130.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 129.00 High May 12
• RES 2: 127.79 High May 26
• RES 1: 126.41 High Jul 1 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 125.35 @ Close Jul 28
• SUP 1: 122.71/119.57 Low Jul 25 / Low Jul 21 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: 118.60 Low Jun 22
• SUP 3: 115.72 Low Jun 16
• SUP 4: 113.78 Contract Low

BTP futures short-term trend conditions remain bullish and the contract traded higher Thursday. Key short-term support has been defined at 119.57, the Jul 22 low, where a break is required to highlight a stronger bearish reversal. An extension higher would refocus attention on key resistance at 126.41, the Jul 1 high and bull trigger. A break would resume the uptrend and pave the way for a climb towards 127.79, May 26 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U2) Heading North

• RES 4: 3840.00 High Jun 6
• RES 3: 3774.00 High Jun 9
• RES 2: 3722.70 76.4% retracement of the Jun 6 - Jul 5 downleg
• RES 1: 3689.00 High Jun 10
• PRICE: 3663.00 @ 05:52 BST Jul 29
• SUP 1: 3565.20/3467.00 50-day EMA / Low Jul 18 / 19
• SUP 2: 3343.00 Low Jul 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 3321.30 50.0% of the major 2020 - 2021 upleg (cont)
• SUP 4: 3300.00 Round number support

EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded higher Thursday, marking an extension of Wednesday's gains that confirmed a bull flag on the daily chart and a resumption of the current uptrend. The short-term outlook remains bullish and the focus is on a recovery towards 3689.00 next, the Jun 10 high. The key support and bear trigger is unchanged at 3343.00, Jul 5 low. Initial firm support to watch lies at 3565.20, the 50-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P (U2): Bull Still In The Driver's Seat

• RES 4: 4345.75 2.00 proj of the Jun 17 - 28 - Jul 14 price swing
• RES 3: 4306.50 High May 4
• RES 2: 4204.75 High May 31 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 4145.75 High Jun 9
• PRICE: 4101.75 @ 06:57 BST Jul 29
• SUP 1: 3913.25 Low Jul 26 and key near-term support
• SUP 2: 3820.25 Low Jul 18
• SUP 3: 3723.75/3639.00 Low Jul 14 / Low Jun 17 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 3578.27 0.618 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing

S&P E-Minis traded higher Thursday, marking an extension of Wednesday's climb that resulted in a breach of 4016.25, the Jul 22 high. The break higher confirms a resumption of the current bull cycle and signals potential for a climb towards 4145.75, the Jun 9 high. The next key resistance is at 4204.75, the May 31 high. Initial support has been defined at 3913.25, the Jul 26 low. A break would highlight a possible early bearish reversal signal.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V2) Watching Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $115.31- High Jun 17
• RES 3: $112.92- High Jun 29 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $110.72 - High Jul 5
• RES 1: $104.20 - High Jul 28
• PRICE: $101.92 @ 07:05 BST Jul 29
• SUP 1: $96.70 - Low Jul 25
• SUP 2: $94.37/91.22 - Low Jul 15 / Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $90.00 - Round number support
• SUP 4: $88.31 - Low Mar 9 and a key support

Brent futures pierced the 50-day EMA, at $103.59, yesterday. A clear breach of this average would strengthen the case for bulls and signal scope for a climb towards $110.72, the Jul 5 high. Note too that a clear break higher would also highlight an inverted head and shoulders reversal on the daily chart. On the downside, support to watch lies at $96.70, the Jul 25 low. A break would be bearish.

WTI TECHS: (U2) Remains Below Key Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $113.87 - High Jun 17
• RES 3: $111.14 - High Jun 29 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 2: $108.28- High Jul 5
• RES 1: $100.84 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $97.20 @ 07:20 BST Jul 29
• SUP 1: $93.01/88.23 - Low Jul 25 / Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $85.37 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: $83.51 - 1.50 projection of the Jun 8 - 22 - 29 price swing
• SUP 4: $81.34 - 1.618 projection of the Jun 8 - 22 - 29 price swing

WTI futures continue to trade above the most recent lows. The contract however is also trading below the 50-day EMA, at $100.84. Clearance of this average is required to strengthen bullish conditions and signal scope for a stronger reversal. On the downside, a resumption of weakness would open $88.23, the Jul 14 low and the bear trigger. The first support to watch is at $93.01, the Jul 25 low.

GOLD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Extends

• RES 4: $1847.9 - High Jun 22
• RES 3: $1825.1 - High Jun 30
• RES 2: $1814.5 - Trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 8 high
• RES 1: $1786.1 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $1766.7 @ 07:24 BST Jul 29
• SUP 1: $1743.0 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1711.7/1681.0 - Low Jul 27 / 21
• SUP 3: $1680.5 - 1.764 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 4: $1676.9 - Low Mar 8 2021

Gold maintains a firmer tone and is trading higher today. Current gains are considered corrective and attention is resistance at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at $1786.1. A break of this average would suggest potential for an extension and expose trendline resistance at $1814.50. A break of the trendline would represent an important technical break. On the downside, initial firm support lies at $1711.7, the Jul 27 low. Key support is at $1681.0.

SILVER TECHS: Approaching The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $21.540 - High Jun 27
• RES 3: $21.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $21.540 - High Jun 27
• RES 1: $20.374 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $20.204 @ 08:08 BST Jul 29
• SUP 1: $18.146/18.000 - Low Jul 14 / Round number support
• SUP 2: $17.312 - 3.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 3: $16.955 - Low Jun 15 2020
• SUP 4: $16.735 - Low May 22 2020

Silver is firmer and has traded above the 20-day EMA this week. Short-term gains are considered corrective. A stronger bounce however signals scope for a climb towards the 50-day EMA, at $20.374. This average marks a key pivot short-term resistance and a break would signal scope for a stronger recovery. The broader downtrend remains intact and key support has been defined at $18.146, Jul 14 low. A break would resume the downtrend.