MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EURJPY Extends Bullish Price Sequence

Price Signal Summary – EURJPY Extends Bullish Price Sequence

• S&P E-Minis trend conditions remain bearish and short-term signals suggest scope for an extension lower near-term. The contract continues to trade below the 50-day EMA, at 4023.15 and sights are set on 3901.75, the Jan 19 low. Eurostoxx 50 futures remain above Friday’s low of 4175.00. Key support to watch is 4183.90, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Oct 13 low. While channel support holds, the broader uptrend remains intact and a continuation higher near-term would expose the bull trigger at 4323.00.
• EURJPY trend conditions remain bullish and the cross is trading closer to its recent highs. Fresh gains maintain a bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows, with the cross having cleared 144.19. This is the 61.8% retracement of the Oct 21 - Jan 3 bear leg. GBPUSD trend conditions remain bearish despite this week’s bounce and resistance remains intact. A break of 1.1915, the Feb 17 low would confirm a resumption of the bear leg and expose key support at 1.1842, the Jan 6 low. USDCAD bulls remain in the driver’s seat for now and sights are on the key short-term resistance at 1.3705, the Dec 16 high. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen bullish conditions and pave the way for a test and break of the 1.3800 handle.
• Trend conditions in Gold remain bearish and price is trading below the 50-day EMA, at $1846.8 - current gains are considered corrective. The break of the 50-day EMA, in mid-February, strengthened the case for bears. WTI futures remain above last week’s lows and key short-term support has been defined at $73.80, the Feb 22 low. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position and for now, this continues to highlight a downtrend.
• Bund futures remain in a downtrend and the contract traded lower Tuesday. This has resulted in a test of the 132.60 key support. the Jan 2 low. A clear breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend. Gilt futures recovered from Tuesday’s intraday low of 99.20. Despite the bounce, trend conditions remain bearish and this week’s lows reinforce current conditions. The move down confirms a resumption of the trend and note that the 100.00 handle has been cleared.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bear Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 1.0803 High Feb 14 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 1.0745 High Feb 15
• RES 2: 1.0662 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.0645 High Feb 28
• PRICE: 1.0592 @ 05:49 GMT Mar 1
• SUP 1: 1.0533 Low Feb 27
• SUP 2: 1.0484 Low Jan 6 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.0461 38.2% retracement of the Sep 28 - Feb 2 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.0436 2.0% 10-dma envelope

EURUSD failed to hold on to Tuesday’s gains and the pair was sold into the close. The trend direction remains down. The recent break of the 50-day EMA, at 1.0662, reinforces bearish conditions and attention is on 1.0484, the Jan 6 low. Clearance of this level would expose 1.0461, 38.2% of the Sep 28 - Feb 2 bull cycle. A break of the 1.0484/61 support zone would strengthen the bearish theme. Initial resistance to watch is 1.0662.

GBPUSD TECHS: Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 1.2269 High Feb 14
• RES 3: 1.2244 61.8% retracement of the Jan 23 - Feb 17 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.2182 High Feb 15
• RES 1: 1.2147 High Feb 21
• PRICE: 1.2042 @ 06:05 GMT Mar 1
• SUP 1: 1.1915 Low Feb 17 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 1.1842 Low Jan 6 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 3: 1.1790 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.1764 Low Nov 17

GBPUSD trend conditions remain bearish despite this week’s bounce and resistance remains intact. A break of 1.1915, the Feb 17 low would confirm a resumption of the bear leg and expose key support at 1.1842, the Jan 6 low. Clearance of this important price level would highlight a broader reversal threat and a potential double top reversal pattern. Key short-term resistance is seen at 1.2147, the Feb 21 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 0.8979 High Feb 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.8929 High Feb 17
• RES 2: 0.8887 High Feb 21
• RES 1: 0.8835 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8758 @ 16:23 GMT Feb 28
• SUP 1: 0.8755 Low Feb 28
• SUP 2: 0.8751 100-dma
• SUP 3: 0.8722 Low Jan 19 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.8649 76.4% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 upleg

EURGBP traded lower Tuesday but did recover from its session low. The cross remains vulnerable. Price has recently cleared both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, reinforcing a bearish threat. A continuation lower would open 0.8751, the 100-dma ahead of key support at 0.8722, the Jan 19 low. On the upside, initial resistance is at 0.8835, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this level would ease the current bearish threat.

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 138.17 High Dec 15 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 137.69.38 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 137.53 2.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 1: 136.92 High Feb 28
• PRICE: 136.33 @ 06:39 GMT Mar 1
• SUP 1: 134.06 Low Feb 24
• SUP 2: 133.50 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 132.55 Low Feb 15
• SUP 4: 131.52 Low Feb 14

USDJPY bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the pair delivered a fresh short-term trend high on Tuesday. Price has pierced 136.67, the 38.2% retracement of the downleg between Oct 21 and Jan 16. A clear break of this level sets the scene for a climb towards 138.17, the Dec 15 high. On the downside, the support top watch lies at 133.50, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA is required to signal a possible reversal.

EURJPY TECHS: Heading North

• RES 4: 147.10 High Nov 9 2022
• RES 3: 146.73 High Dec 15 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 145.80 76.4% retracement of the Oct 21 - Jan 3 bear leg
• RES 1: 145.47 High Feb 28
• PRICE: 144.59 @ 06:56 GMT Mar 1
• SUP 1: 143.57 Low Feb 27
• SUP 2: 142.15 Low Feb 24 and a key support
• SUP 3: 141.52 Low Feb 14
• SUP 4: 140.14 Low Feb 13

EURJPY trend conditions remain bullish and the cross is trading closer to its recent highs. Fresh gains maintain a bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows, with the cross having cleared 144.19. This is the 61.8% retracement of the Oct 21 - Jan 3 bear leg. The breach opens 145.80, the 76.4% retracement and 146.73, the Dec 15 high. On the downside, a key short-term support has been defined at 142.15, the Feb 24 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 0.6989 High Feb 15
• RES 3: 0.6921 High Feb 20
• RES 2: 0.6843 Former trendline support drawn from Oct 13 2022 low
• RES 1: 0.6812 Low Dec 17
• PRICE: 0.6751 @ 16:35 GMT Feb 28
• SUP 1: 0.6695 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.6664 50% retracement Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 3: 0.6629 Low Dec 20 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6585 Low Nov 21

AUDUSD’s February downtrend remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. The recent breach of both the 200-dma and 100-dma, reinforces bearish conditions and note too that the pair has cleared trendline support drawn from the Oct 13 2022 low. The focus is on 0.6629, the Dec 20 low and the next key support. Resistance to watch is at 0.6843, the former trendline support.

USDCAD TECHS: Sights Are On Key Resistance At 1.3705

• RES 4: 1.3808 High Nov 34
• RES 3: 1.3795 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.3705 Dec 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.3665 High Feb 24
• PRICE: 1.3607 @ 07:02 GMT Mar 1
• SUP 1: 1.3515 Low Feb 22
• SUP 2: 1.3465 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3400 Round number support
• SUP 4: 1.3358 Low Feb 16

USDCAD bulls remain in the driver’s seat for now and sights are on the key short-term resistance at 1.3705, the Dec 16 high. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen bullish conditions and pave the way for a test and break of the 1.3800 handle. On the downside, the support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA. It intersects at 1.3465 and a clear break would be seen as a short-term bearish development.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H3) Southbound

• RES 4: 136.40 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 136.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 135.15 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 133.61/134.36 High Feb 28 / 27
• PRICE: 132.20 @ 07:52 GMT Mar 1
• SUP 1: 132.05 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 132.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 131.57 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 131.16 2.00 proj of the Jan 19 - Jan 30 - Feb 2 price swing

Bund futures remain in a downtrend and the contract traded lower Tuesday. This has resulted in a test of the 132.60 key support. the Jan 2 low. A clear breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend and open the 132.00 handle next ahead of 131.57, support based on a MA envelope study. Initial firm resistance to watch is at 135.15, the 20-day EMA. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.

BOBL TECHS: (H3) Fresh Cycle Low

• RES 4: 117.024 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 116.760 Low Feb 8
• RES 2: 116.351 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 115.520/850 High Feb 28 / 27
• PRICE: 114.750 @ 07:53 GMT Mar 1
• SUP 1: 114.710 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 114.511 2.236 proj of the Jan 19 - Jan 30 - Feb 2 price swing
• SUP 3: 114.239 2.382 proj of the Jan 19 - Jan 30 - Feb 2 price swing
• SUP 4: 114.020 2.50 proj of the Jan 19 - Jan 30 - Feb 2 price swing

Bobl futures extended recent weakness on Tuesday to hit fresh YTD lows at 114.730. The break lower confirms a resumption of the current bear cycle and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position and this highlights current sentiment. Sights are on 114.511, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is 116.351, the 20-day EMA.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H3) Downtrend Intact

• RES 4: 105.6943 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 105.425 High Feb 16
• RES 2: 105.402 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 105.090/195 High Feb 28 / 27
• PRICE: 104.845 @ 07:53 GMT Mar 1
• SUP 1: 104.830 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 104.842 2.50 proj of the Jan 18 - Feb 1 - Feb 2 price swing
• SUP 3: 104.620 Lower 3.0% Bollinger Band
• SUP 4: 104.585 3.00 proj of the Jan 18 - Feb 1 - Feb 2 price swing

Schatz futures remain in a clear downtrend and Tuesday’s extension lower and fresh YTD lows reinforces bearish conditions. The move maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The 105.000 handle has been breached and this paves the way for a move towards 104.842, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, firm resistance is seen at 105.402, the 20-day EMA. Clearance of this resistance would signal a short-term reversal.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 103.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 102.20 High Feb 20
• RES 2: 101.92 High Feb 24
• RES 1: 100.25/100.98 High Feb 28 / 27
• PRICE: 99.96 @ Close Feb 28
• SUP 1: 99.20 Low Feb 28
• SUP 2: 99.17 1.382 projection of the Feb 20 - 23 - 24 price swing
• SUP 3: 98.94 1.50 projection of the Feb 20 - 23 - 24 price swing
• SUP 4: 98.70 1.618 projection of the Feb 20 - 23 - 24 price swing

Gilt futures recovered from Tuesday’s intraday low of 99.20. Despite the bounce, trend conditions remain bearish and this week’s lows reinforce current conditions. The move down confirms a resumption of the trend and note that the 100.00 handle has been cleared. A continuation lower would open 99.17, the 1.382 projection of the Feb 20 - 23 - 24 price swing. On the upside, resistance is seen at Monday’s 100.98 high.

BTP TECHS: (H3) Short-Term Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 116.33 High Feb 9
• RES 3: 116.11 High Feb 14
• RES 2: 115.30 High Feb 15
• RES 1: 114.14 50-day EMA and a key resistance
• PRICE: 112.69 @ Close Feb 28
• SUP 1: 111.78 Low Feb 28
• SUP 2: 111.08 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 110.77 Low Jan 4 and 76.4% of the Dec 30 - Jan 19 rally
• SUP 4: 109.29 Low Jan 3

BTP futures traded to a fresh short-term trend low of 111.78 on Tuesday. The trend outlook remains bearish and the next downside levels to watch cross at 111.08, the 2.0% 10-dma envelope and 110.77, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the upside, resistance to watch is at 114.14, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this average is required to signal a potential base and would highlight a possible reversal.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H3) Bull Channel Support Intact

• RES 4: 4446.00 3.00 proj of the Sep 29 - Oct 4 rally from Dec 20 low
• RES 3: 4409.50 High Nov 18 2021 and a major resistance
• RES 2: 4381.50 High Jan 5 2022 (cont)
• RES 1: 4323.00 High Feb 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4251.00 @ 05:37 GMT Mar 1
• SUP 1: 4183.90 Bull channel base drawn from the Oct 13 low
• SUP 2: 4131.60 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 3955.00 Low Jan 5
• SUP 4: 3753.00 Low Dec 20 and a key support

Eurostoxx 50 futures remain above Friday’s low of 4175.00. Key support to watch is 4183.90, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Oct 13 low. While channel support holds, the broader uptrend remains intact and a continuation higher near-term would expose the bull trigger at 4323.00, Feb 16 high. A break of this hurdle would resume the broader uptrend. On the downside, a breach of the channel base would alter the picture.

E-MINI S&P (H3): Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 4168.50 High Feb 16
• RES 3: 4096.00 High Feb 17
• RES 2: 4047.25 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 4023.15 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 3982.75 @ 07:51 GMT Mar 1
• SUP 1: 3947.50 Low Feb 24
• SUP 2: 3901.75 Low Jan 19
• SUP 3: 3787.62 76.4% retracement of the Dec 22 - Feb 2 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 3819.00 Low Jan 6

S&P E-Minis trend conditions remain bearish and short-term signals suggest scope for an extension lower near-term. The contract continues to trade below the 50-day EMA, at 4023.15 and sights are set on 3901.75, the Jan 19 low and 3887.62, the 76.4% retracement of the Dec 22 - Feb 2 bull cycle. Resistance to watch is 4047.25, the 20-day EMA. Note that a clear break of both the 50- and 20-day EMAs would signal a possible reversal.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K3) Trading Above Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $88.78 - High Jan 23 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $86.55 - High Feb 13
• RES 2: $85.83 - High Feb 16
• RES 1: $84.53 - High Feb 17
• PRICE: $84.03 @ 07:01 GMT Mar 1
• SUP 1: $80.25/78.84 - Low Feb 23 / 6
• SUP 2: $77.76 - Low Jan 5
• SUP 3: $76.04 - Low Dec 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $75.43 - 0.764 proj of the Nov 7 - Dec 12 - Jan 23 price swing

Brent futures remain above last week’s lows and key short-term support has been defined at $80.25, the Feb 23 low. The contract is trading higher today and price has moved above resistance at the 50-day EMA - the average intersects at 83.66. A continuation higher would open $86.55, the Feb 13 high. On the downside, sub $80.25 levels would reinstate the recent bearish theme and this would open $78.84, the Feb 6 low.

WTI TECHS: (J3) Remains Below Resistance - For Now

• RES 4: $85.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $82.89 - High Jan 23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $80.78 - High Feb 13
• RES 1: $77.93 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $77.59 @ 07:05 GMT Mar 1
• SUP 1: $73.80 - Low Feb 22 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: $72.64 - Low Feb 6
• SUP 3: $70.86 - Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $70.00 - Psychological round number

WTI futures remain above last week’s lows and key short-term support has been defined at $73.80, the Feb 22 low. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position and for now, this continues to highlight a downtrend. A break of the $73.80, would open $72.64, the Feb 6 low. Initial resistance to watch is at $77.93, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would be a bullish development.

GOLD TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: $1900.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $1890.2 - High Feb 9
• RES 2: $1870.5 - High Feb 14
• RES 1: $1846.8 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $1835.0 @ 07:21 GMT Mar 1
• SUP 1: $1804.9 - Low Feb 28
• SUP 2: $1792.8- 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: $1787.3 - 50.0% retracement of the Sep 28 - Feb 2 bull leg
• SUP 4: $1774.0 - Low Dec 15

Sights are on $1800.0 and $1787.3, the 50.0% retracement of the uptrend between Sep 28 and Feb 2. On the upside, the 50-day EMA marks the first key short-term resistance. A clear breach of this average would ease bearish pressure.

SILVER TECHS: Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: $23.606 - High Feb 3
• RES 3: $23.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $22.340 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $21.834 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $21.111 @ 07:26 GMT Mar 1
• SUP 1: $20.265 - 61.8% retracement of the Sep 1 - Feb 2 bull leg
• SUP 2: $20.000 - Psychological round number
• SUP 3: $19.416 - Low Nov 4
• SUP 4: $19.232 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep 1 - Feb 2 bull leg

The sharp sell-off in Silver accelerated last week and the trend outlook remains bearish, despite this week’s bounce. The recent move lower exposes $20.265 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would signal scope for a test and break of the $20.00 handle. Initial resistance to watch is at $21.834, the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA intersects at $22.340. The area between these two averages marks a key resistance zone.