MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EURJPY Uptrend Intact

Price Signal Summary – EURJPY Uptrend Intact

• The trend outlook in S&P E-minis remains bullish and the latest move lower (from last Tuesday’s high) is considered corrective. Support to watch lies at 4125.73, the 20-day EMA where a break is required to suggest scope for a deeper pullback - this would expose 4083.76, the 50-day EMA. The Eurostoxx 50 futures uptrend remains intact and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. The recent extension higher has reinforced the bullish significance of the break of 4268.00, Mar 6 high and a former key resistance.
• A bull cycle in EURGBP remains in play. The cross has traded above trendline resistance that intersects at 0.8841. The line is drawn from the Feb 3 high. 0.8866, the Mar 23 high, has been pierced - on Apr 17. EURJPY recovered from Friday’s low and the cross is trading closer to its recent highs. The uptrend remains intact - the cross cleared 145.67 on Apr 11, the Mar 31 high, to reinforce bullish conditions. A resumption of gains would open 148.40 next, the Oct 21 2022 high. Initial firm support lies at 145.58, the 20-day EMA. USDCAD maintains a firmer tone. The pair has topped 1.3526 resistance - the 50-day EMA. The clear break of this hurdle strengthens the current bull cycle and signals scope for a climb towards 1.3573, the 1.0% 10-dma envelope.
• Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish, however, the yellow metal has entered a short-term corrective cycle and is trading below recent highs. Price has breached a firm support at $1986.9, the 20-day EMA, highlighting potential for a deeper retracement. WTI futures traded lower last week. This resulted in a breach of support at $79.04, the Apr 3 low and the gap high on the daily chart. The continuation lower has also resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and this has opened $75.83, the Mar 31 high.
• Bund futures maintain a bearish tone and short-term gains are considered corrective. Recent weakness resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA, at 134.92, and a key short-term support at 134.70 has been cleared, Mar 31 low. A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. Price has recently breached support at 102.74, the Mar 31 low and a bear trigger.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trading Above Support At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.1185 High Mar 31 2022
• RES 3: 1.1127 1.00 projection of the Mar 15 - 23 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 1.1076 High Apr 1 2022 and high Apr 14
• RES 1: 1.1000 High Apr 17
• PRICE: 1.0981 @ 05:47 BST Apr 24
• SUP 1: 1.0913 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0831 Low Apr 10
• SUP 3: 1.0817 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.0788 Low Apr 3

EURUSD trend signals remain bullish and recent weakness appears to be a correction. Price is trading above 1.0913, the 20-day EMA and moving average studies are in a bull mode position, highlighting an uptrend. The bull trigger is unchanged at 1.1076, Apr 14 high, a break would open 1.1127, a Fibonacci projection and 1.1185, Mar 31 2022 high. On the downside, clearance of the 20-day EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Continues To Point North

• RES 4: 1.2683 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.2667 High May 27 2022
• RES 2: 1.2599 High Jun 7 2022
• RES 1: 1.2474/2546 High Apr 19 / 14 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2436 @ 06:00 BST Apr 24
• SUP 1: 1.2353/45 Low Apr 17 / 10
• SUP 2: 1.2278 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2191 Low MAr 24
• SUP 4: 1.2161 Low Mar 20

GBPUSD is in consolidation mode. The uptrend remains intact and price is trading above support at 1.2387, the 20-day EMA. The average was pierced last week, a clear breach of it would signal scope for a deeper correction. On the upside, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on 1.2546, the Apr 14 high, where a break would resume the uptrend for 1.2599, the Jun 7 2022 high. Support below the 20-day EMA lies at 1.2345, Apr 10 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 0.8918 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 15 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.8880 61.8 retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 15 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.8872 High Apr 17
• RES 1: 0.8861 High Apr 21
• PRICE: 0.8832 @ 06:17 BST Apr 24
• SUP 1: 0.8792 Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: 0.8763/8729 Low Apr 11 / 4
• SUP 3: 0.8719 Low Mar 15 and key support
• SUP 4: 0.8712 61.8% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull leg

A bull cycle in EURGBP remains in play. The cross has traded above trendline resistance that intersects at 0.8841. The line is drawn from the Feb 3 high. 0.8866, the Mar 23 high, has been pierced - on Apr 17. A clear break of the trendline and 0.8866 would open 0.8880, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support lies at 0.8719, Mar 15 low. Clearance of this level would be bearish. Initial firm support is 0.8792, the Apr 19 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Direction Remains Up

• RES 4: 137.38 High Mar 9
• RES 3: 136.99 High Mar 10
• RES 2: 135.96 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - 24 bear leg
• RES 1: 135.13 High Apr 19
• PRICE: 134.44 @ 06:48 BST Apr 24
• SUP 1: 133.40 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 132.02 Low Apr 13
• SUP 3: 131.53 Low Feb 2
• SUP 4: 130.64 Low Apr 5 and a key support

The USDJPY trend needle still points north. Resistance at 134.75, 61.8% of the Mar 8 - 24 bear leg, was breached last week. This has strengthened the current bull cycle and signals scope for a continuation higher towards 135.96 next, the 76.4% retracement point. Initial firm support lies at 133.40, the 20-day EMA. Key short-term support is at 132.02, Apr 13 low. A break would be bearish.

EURJPY TECHS: Bulls Remains In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 150.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 149.39 1.00 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 2: 148.40 High Oct 21 2022 and key resistance
• RES 1: 147.86 High Apr 19
• PRICE: 147.53 @ 06:55 BST Apr 24
• SUP 1: 146.41/145.67 Low Apr 21 / High Mar 31
• SUP 2: 145.58 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 144.21 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 142.55 Low Apr 6

EURJPY recovered from Friday’s low and the cross is trading closer to its recent highs. The uptrend remains intact - the cross cleared 145.67 on Apr 11, the Mar 31 high, to reinforce bullish conditions. A resumption of gains would open 148.40 next, the Oct 21 2022 high. Initial firm support lies at 145.58, the 20-day EMA. Short-term weakness would be considered corrective and a move lower would allow an overbought condition to unwind.

AUDUSD TECHS: Watching Support

• RES 4: 0.6921 High Feb 20
• RES 3: 0.6861 50.0% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6824 High Feb 24
• RES 1: 0.6772/0.6806 High Apr 20 / Apr 14
• PRICE: 0.6673 @ 07:04 BST Apr 24
• SUP 1: 0.6620 Low Apr 10
• SUP 2: 0.6590 Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: 0.6565/47 Low Mar 10 / 61.8% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.6500 Round number support

AUDUSD appears vulnerable. The pair failed to hold on to last Thursday’s gains and is trading lower. A key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.6806, the Apr 14 high. A break would reinstate a bullish theme and open 0.6861, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support to watch is 0.6620, the Apr 10 low. Clearance of this level would represent a bearish development and leave the 0.6565 bear trigger exposed, Mar 10 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Trading Above The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: .36448 61.8% retracement of the Mar 10 - Apr 14 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.3617 High Mar 29
• RES 2: 1.3582 50.0% retracement of the Mar 10 - Apr 14 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.3573 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• PRICE: 1.3566 @ 08:02 BST Apr 24
• SUP 1: 1.3473 Low Apr 21
• SUP 2: 1.3385/3302 Low Apr 19 / 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3275 Low Feb 14
• SUP 4: 1.3262 Low Feb 2 and a key support

USDCAD maintains a firmer tone. The pair has topped 1.3526 resistance - the 50-day EMA. The clear break of this hurdle strengthens the current bull cycle and signals scope for a climb towards 1.3573, the 1.0% 10-dma envelope. For bears, a failure to hold above the 50-day EMA would signal the end of the correction and attention would turn to the key support at 1.3302, the Apr 14 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 136.44/138.09 High Apr 12 / 6 and key near-term resistance
• RES 3: 135.52 High Apr 13
• RES 2: 134.92 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 134.41 High Apr 18
• PRICE: 133.80 @ 05:14 BST Apr 24
• SUP 1: 133.10 Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: 132.70 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 20 rally
• SUP 3: 132.37 Low Mar 10
• SUP 4: 132.00 Round number support

Bund futures maintain a bearish tone and short-term gains are considered corrective. Recent weakness resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA, at 134.92, and a key short-term support at 134.70 has been cleared, Mar 31 low. The focus is on 132.70, a Fibonacci retracement. A move above 138.09, the Apr 6 high, is required to reinstate a stronger bullish theme. Initial firm resistance is seen at the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 119.307 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - 31 downleg
• RES 3: 118.280/119.190 High Apr 12 / High Mar 27
• RES 2: 117.830 High Apr 13
• RES 1: 117.160/467 High Apr 18 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 116.900 @ 05:21 BST Apr 24
• SUP 1: 116.420 Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: 116.370 Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: 116.125 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - 20 rally
• SUP 4: 115.700 Low Mar 10

Bobl futures are consolidating. The outlook remains bearish and the contract has recently breached 117.200, the Mar 31 low. This reinforced the bearish theme and the focus is on 116.370, the Mar 15 low. Clearance of this level would open 116.125, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on 119.190, Mar 27 high and the trigger for a stronger short-term climb. Initial firm resistance is 117.467, the 20-day EMA.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Trend Condition Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 106.190 High Apr 6 and key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 105.815 High Apr 12
• RES 2: 105.552/665 20-day EMA / High Apr 13
• RES 1: 105.440 High Apr 18
• PRICE: 105.325 @ 05:35 BST Apr 24
• SUP 1: 105.165 Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: 105.030 Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: 104.953 76.4% retracement of the Mar 9 - 20 rally
• SUP 4: 104.695 Low Mar 10

Schatz futures are consolidating but remain in a downtrend and short-term gains are considered corrective. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of support at 105.465, the Mar 31 low. This led to a break of 105.336, 61.8% of the Mar 9 - 20 rally. The focus is on 105.030, the Mar 15 low. On the upside, clearance of 106.190, Apr 6 high, is required to reinstate a bullish theme. Initial firm resistance is seen at 105.552, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 102.50 20-day EMA
• RES 3: 102.37 High Apr 17
• RES 2: 101.60 High Apr 18
• RES 1: 101.34 High Apr 21
• PRICE: 100.82 @ Close Apr 21
• SUP 1: 99.73 Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: 99.55 Low Mar 8
• SUP 3: 99.20 Low Feb 28 and key support
• SUP 4: 99.00 Round number support

A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. Price has recently breached support at 102.74, the Mar 31 low and a bear trigger. The extension lower has also resulted in a test of the 100.00 handle. A continuation lower would open 99.55, the Mar 8 low ahead of 99.20, the Feb 28 low and key support. Initial resistance is seen at 101.34, Friday’s high.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Downtrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 117.17 High Mar 24 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 115.92/116.97 High Apr 12 / 6
• RES 2: 114.94 High Apr 13
• RES 1: 114.37 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 113.27 @ Close Apr 21
• SUP 1: 113.09 Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: 112.89 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
• SUP 3: 111.88 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
• SUP 4: 111.05 Low Mar 8

The BTP futures trend condition is unchanged and remains bearish. The contract has recently cleared support at 114.04, the Mar 31 low, strengthening a bearish theme. Attention is on 112.89, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 114.37, the 20-day EMA. Key resistance is far off at 117.17, the Mar 24 high. A break above the 20-day EMA would highlight a potential bullish reversal.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs

• RES 4: 4520.00 High June 2001 (cont)
• RES 3: 4403.50 High Nov 18 2021 (cont) and a major resistance
• RES 2: 4381.50 High Jan 5 2022 (cont)
• RES 1: 4363.00 High Apr 21
• PRICE: 4348.00 @ 05:55 BST Apr 23
• SUP 1: 4309.00 Low Apr 17
• SUP 2: 4266.00 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4190.70 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 4095.00 Low Mar 28

The Eurostoxx 50 futures uptrend remains intact and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. The recent extension higher has reinforced the bullish significance of the break of 4268.00, Mar 6 high and a former key resistance. The move confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 4381.50, Jan 5 2022 high (cont). Initial firm support lies at 4266.00, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M3) Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 4244.00 High Feb 2 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 4223.00 High Feb 14
• RES 2: 4205.50 High Feb 16
• RES 1: 4200.00 Round number resistance
• PRICE: 4134.25 @ 07:10 BST Apr 24
• SUP 1: 4125.73 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4083.76 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 3980.75 Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: 3937.00 Low Mar 24

The trend outlook in S&P E-minis remains bullish and the latest move lower (from last Tuesday’s high) is considered corrective. Support to watch lies at 4125.73, the 20-day EMA where a break is required to suggest scope for a deeper pullback - this would expose 4083.76, the 50-day EMA. Attention is on the 4200.00 handle where a breach would resume the uptrend and open 4205.50, Feb 16 high ahead of 4244.00, the Feb 2 high and key resistance.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M3) Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: $90.46 - High Nov 15 2022
• RES 3: $88.35 - High Jan 23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $87.49 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $82.92/85.15 - High Apr 20 / 19
• PRICE: $80.73 @ 06:48 BST Apr 24
• SUP 1: $79.95 - High Mar 31 and gap low on the daily chart
• SUP 2: $78.77 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 12 bull run
• SUP 3: $77.18 - Low Mar 30
• SUP 4: $74.39 - Low Mar 27

Brent futures remain vulnerable following last week’s sell-off. The move lower resulted in a break of support at $83.50, the Apr 3 low, and price has also breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This signals scope for a move to $79.95, the Mar 31 high and a gap low on the daily chart. Key resistance has been defined at $87.49, the Apr 12 high. A break would resume the recent bull run.

WTI TECHS: (M3) Bearish Price Action

• RES 4: $86.40 - High Nov 7 2022
• RES 3: $85.54 - High Nov 8 2022
• RES 2: $83.38 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $79.07/81.24 - High Apr 20 / 19
• PRICE: $76.79 @ 07:01 BST Apr 24
• SUP 1: $75.83 - High Mar 31 and gap low on the daily chart
• SUP 2: $73.98 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 12 rally
• SUP 3: $72.19 - Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: $69.13 - Low Mar 27

WTI futures traded lower last week. This resulted in a breach of support at $79.04, the Apr 3 low and the gap high on the daily chart. The continuation lower has also resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and this has opened $75.83, the Mar 31 high and a gap low on the daily chart. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at $83.38, the Apr 12 high. A break would resume the recent uptrend.

GOLD TECHS: Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: $2075.5 - All-Time High Aug 7 2020
• RES 3: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $2059.2 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 1: $2015.1/2048.7 - High Apr 17 / High Apr 13 and bull trigger
• PRICE: $1981.4 @ 07:15 BST Apr 24
• SUP 1: $1969.3/49.7 - Low Apr 19 / 3
• SUP 2: $1942.8 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1900.0 - Round number support
• SUP 4: $1885.8 - Low Mar 15

Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish, however, the yellow metal has entered a short-term corrective cycle and is trading below recent highs. Price has breached a firm support at $1986.9, the 20-day EMA, highlighting potential for a deeper retracement. This has opened $1949.7, Apr 3 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $2048.7, the Apr 5 high. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

SILVER TECHS: Pullback Appears To Be A Correction

• RES 4: $26.943 - High Mar 8 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $26.771 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 2: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $26.088 - High Apr 14
• PRICE: $24.832 @ 08:05 BST Apr 24
• SUP 1: $24.604 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $23.591 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $22.828 - Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: $22.157 - Low Mar 21

Silver remains in an uptrend and the recent pullback is considered corrective - for now. The break, on Apr 4, of resistance at $24.637, the Feb 2 high, confirmed a resumption of the bull trend that started early September 2022. The focus is on $26.222 next, the Apr 18 2022 high. On the downside, a key support to watch is seen at $24.604, the 20-day EMA. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper (corrective) pullback.