MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EuroStoxx Futures Continue to Push Back Against Bearish Condition

Price Signal Summary – EuroStoxx Futures Continue to Push Back Against Bearish Condition

• The e-mini S&P printed a higher high for a fifth consecutive session on Thursday before fading into the close. Nonetheless, the index has narrowed in on the cluster of resistance at the 50/100-dmas for the Dec contract. Eurostoxx 50 futures continue to push back against the recent bearish trend condition. Friday’s rally and the follow through early this week is, for now, deemed corrective in nature. Signs of further strength and a bottoming of prices would follow a break back above the 50-day EMA.
• AUDUSD remains bearish following last week’s breach of support at 0.6331, despite the broad strength posted across the past three sessions. Last week’s break of support confirmed a range breakout and a resumption of the downtrend that started early February. USDJPY traded stronger through the Thursday close, keeping support at last Tuesday’s low of 147.43 intact. The recovery from this level last week is bullish and - for now - the uptrend remains in play. A clear break of the 150.00 handle would reinforce bullish conditions. The GBPUSD rally was sold into the Thursday close, largely reversing the post-payrolls market reaction posted across the first half of the week. The pullback puts spot back below the 20-day EMA, as overriding USD strength dominates.
• The stronger start to the week for WTI futures faded through the Wednesday close, although dips were put across the Thursday session. Recent bearish price action resulted in a break of support at $88.19, the Sep 26 low. The contract has also cleared support at the 50-day EMA. The previously bearish theme reversed further Thursday, putting prices at the highest level since late September and printing five consecutive sessions of higher highs.
• Bund futures broke convincingly higher still Wednesday, further erasing the late September pull lower. The moves narrow the gap with the key upside resistance at the 50-dma of 130.30, a break above which would shift the balance in favour of bulls. Gilt futures rallied sharply Monday, and strength persisted through the Wednesday session. This works against the previously bearish condition, with prices looking to break and close above the 94.08 20-day EMA.

EURUSD TECHS: Profit-taking Takes Pair Off Highs

• RES 4: 1.0769 High Sep 12
• RES 3: 1.0732 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.0674 High Sep 21
• RES 1: 1.0640 High Oct 11
• PRICE: 1.0537 @ 08:15 BST Oct 13
• SUP 1: 1.0448 Low Oct 03 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.0406 50.0% retracement of the Sep ‘22 - Jul ‘23 bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.0335 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.0291 Low Nov 30 2022

EUR/USD finished higher for a sixth consecutive session on Wednesday, breaking north of the 20-day EMA in the process. As a result, the outlook is beginning to improve for the pair, however momentum measures and the medium-term trend direction remain lower for now. Recent cycle lows printed last week confirmed a resumption of the downtrend, opening 1.0406, a Fibonacci retracement. A close above the 20-day EMA is required to then open 1.0674 and levels last seen in late September.

GBPUSD TECHS: Rallies Sold Into Thursday Close

• RES 4: 1.2452 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.2441 200-dma
• RES 2: 1.2351 High Sep 21
• RES 1: 1.2337 High Oct 11
• PRICE: 1.2197 @ 08:21 Oct 13
• SUP 1: 1.2037 Low Oct 04 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.2028 Low Mar 16
• SUP 3: 1.2011 Low Mar 15 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.1964 3.00 proj of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing

The GBPUSD rally was sold into the Thursday close, largely reversing the post-payrolls market reaction posted across the first half of the week. The pullback puts spot back below the 20-day EMA, as overriding USD strength dominates. The longevity of the pullback will be key for informing the viability of the recent base at the Oct 4 low. A return higher opens gains toward the 200-dma above at 1.2441 and levels last seen in mid-September. For now, last week’s fresh cycle lows remain in view, which has reinforced bearish conditions over the medium-term. To return focus lower, 1.2028, the Mar 16 low will be the key downside target. For now, short-term gains are considered corrective.

EURGBP TECHS: Signs of a Top

• RES 4: 0.8768 High May 5
• RES 3: 0.8736 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 downleg
• RES 2: 0.8719 High May 23
• RES 1: 0.8706 High Sep 26 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.8639 @ 08:22 BST Oct 13
• SUP 1: 0.8622 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8616 Low Oct 11
• SUP 2: 0.8569 Low Sep 15 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.8558 Low Sep 11
• SUP 4: 0.8524 Low Sep 06

EURGBP drifted lower still through Wednesday trade, defying the bull cycle that had remained in play into the tail-end of last week. A potential close today below the 50-day EMA would be a bearish development and could signal a near-term top. Further losses expose 0.8569, the Sep 15 low and key support. Prices need to rise north of 0.8706 to re-initiate any bull cycle.

USDJPY TECHS: Trading Above Support

• RES 4: 151.95 High Oct 21 and a major resistance
• RES 3: 151.09 2.764 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
• RES 2: 150.40 2.618 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
• RES 1: 150.16 High Oct 3 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 149.68 @ 08:23 BST Oct 13
• SUP 1: 147.43 Low Oct 3
• SUP 2: 146.45 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 145.91 Low Sep 11
• SUP 4: 144.45 Low Sep 1

USDJPY traded stronger through the Thursday close, keeping support at last Tuesday’s low of 147.43 intact. The recovery from this level last week is bullish and - for now - the uptrend remains in play. A clear break of the 150.00 handle would reinforce bullish conditions. The bull trigger is 150.16, the Oct 3 high and a break would open 150.40, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, clearance of 147.43 would be a bearish development and signal scope for a deeper retracement.

EURJPY TECHS: Bear Threat Still Present

• RES 4: 160.00 Psychological handle
• RES 3: 159.76 High Aug 30 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 158.65 High Sep 13
• RES 1: 158.61 High Oct 12
• PRICE: 157.83 @ 08:26 BST Oct 13
• SUP 1: 154.46 Low Oct 3
• SUP 2: 154.10 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 153.39 76.4% of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 bull run
• SUP 4: 151.42 Late July Low and Bear Trigger

EURJPY traded sharply lower last Tuesday and rallies continue to be sold in the cross. As such, a bearish threat remains present. The cross has cleared support at the 50-day EMA and breached 156.59, the Sep 11 low. The break lower highlights a possible short-term reversal. Tuesday’s low of 154.46 represents a key short-term support where a breach would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Initial resistance was cleared at the 50-day EMA of 157.13, ahead of 158.65.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 0.6630 High Aug 2
• RES 3: 0.6616 High Aug 16
• RES 2: 0.6522 High Aug 30 and Sep 1, and the key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6445/6501 High Oct 11 / High Sep 29
• PRICE: 0.6326 @ 08:27 BST Oct 13
• SUP 1: 0.6287 2.00 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing
• SUP 2: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 2022 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.6215 2.236 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6170 Low Oct 13 2022 and a key support

AUDUSD remains bearish following last week’s breach of support at 0.6331, despite the broad strength posted across the past three sessions. Last week’s break of support confirmed a range breakout and a resumption of the downtrend that started early February. This signals scope for 0.6215 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key trend resistance is at 0.6522, the Aug 30 and Sep 1 high. Short-term gains are considered corrective.

USDCAD TECHS: Bearish Outlook Pauses

• RES 4: 1.3862 High Mar 10 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3857 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.3805 High Mar 24
• RES 1: 1.3786 High Oct 5
• PRICE: 1.3669 @ 08:32 BST Oct 13
• SUP 1: 1.3569 Low Oct 10
• SUP 2: 1.3514 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3417 Low Sep 29
• SUP 4: 1.3381 Low Sep 19 and a key support

USDCAD traded higher last week, but has faded since. Last week, price breached key resistance at 1.3695, the Sep 7 high. This highlights a bullish theme and a reversal of the recent bearish phase. The break also confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started mid-July. Trendline resistance - at 1.3699 and drawn from the Oct 13 ‘22 high, has also been cleared and is a bullish development. Support is at 1.3514, the 50-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z3) Bullish Reversal Stalls, But Still Firmer

• RES 4: 131.54 100-dma
• RES 3: 130.30 50-dma
• RES 2: 130.19 High Sep 22 and key resistance
• RES 1: 129.99 High Oct 11
• PRICE: 129.15 @ 16:45 BST Oct 12
• SUP 1: 126.54 1.764 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 8 price swing
• SUP 2: 126.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 125.69 2.00 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 8 price swing
• SUP 4: 124.84 2.236 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 8 price swing

Bund futures broke convincingly higher still Wednesday, further erasing the late September pull lower. The moves narrow the gap with the key upside resistance at the 50-dma of 130.30, a break above which would shift the balance in favour of bulls. To weaken the outlook and resume the medium-term downtrend, prices need to slip back below the 128.00 handle, targeting pullback lows of 126.62.

BOBL TECHS: (Z3) Corrective Bounce Takes Hold

• RES 4: 116.908 100-dma
• RES 3: 116.740 High Sep 14
• RES 2: 116.570 61.8% Sep - Oct Downleg
• RES 1: 116.500 High Oct 10
• PRICE: 116.010 @ 16:48 BST Oct 12
• SUP 1: 115.310 Low Oct 4
• SUP 2: 114.880 Low Sep 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 114.817 2.236 proj of the Sep 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
• SUP 4: 115.691 2.382 proj of the Sep 8 - 13 - 14 price swing

The downtrend in Bobl futures hit reverse Monday, with prices rallying smartly through several consecutive resistance levels. Most notably, firm S/T resistance at 116.150, the Sep 22 high gave way, making for a short-term momentum shift and opening 116.570 as the next upside level. The bear trigger remains 114.880, the Sep 28 low. A resumption of the downtrend would open 114.817, a Fibonacci projection.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z3) Short-Term Momentum Fades

• RES 4: 106.102 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 105.560 High Sep 1
• RES 2: 105.372 76.4% Fib retracement Sep - Oct downleg
• RES 1: 105.320 High Oct 10
• PRICE: 105.050 @ 16:49 BST Oct 12
• SUP 1: 104.905 Low Oct 4
• SUP 2: 104.830/765 Low Sep 29 / 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 104.720 2.00 proj of the Aug 24 - 30 - Sep 1 price swing
• SUP 4: 104.645 Low Jul 12 (cont)

Schatz futures made light work of resistance at both the 50- and 100-dmas earlier this week, but momentum failed to sustain further gains. Key near-term resistance at 105.170, the Sep 14 high, gave way on the move, meaning the downtrend has now concluded. On the downside, watch support at 104.905, the Oct 4 low. A break of this level would signal a resumption of the trend and expose key support at 104.765, the Sep 21 low and bear trigger.

GILT TECHS: (Z3) Tops 20-day EMA, Shifts in S/T Momentum Bullish

• RES 4: 96.71 High Sep 20
• RES 3: 95.95 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 95.67 High Sep 26
• RES 1: 95.24 High Oct 11
• PRICE: 94.24 @ 16:51 BST Oct 12
• SUP 1: 91.47 Low Aug 17 and key support
• SUP 2: 91.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 90.06 1.00 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 17 - Sep 20 price swing
• SUP 4: 90.00 Psychological round number

Gilt futures rallied sharply Monday, and strength persisted through the Wednesday session. This works against the previously bearish condition, with prices looking to break and close above the 94.08 20-day EMA. Such a close Wednesday would confirm a short-term shift in momentum. To the downside, the contract recently breached 93.36, the Sep 6 low and a key support. Furthermore, 92.71, 76.4% of Aug 17 - Sep 20 bull run, has been breached.

BTP TECHS: (Z3) Holding Bulk of Gains

• RES 4: 113.84 High Sep 14
• RES 3: 112.52 High Sep 20
• RES 2: 110.81 High Oct 11
• RES 1: 110.66 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 109.83 @ 16:52 Oct 12
• SUP 1: 107.62 Low Oct 4
• SUP 2: 107.08 2.236 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)
• SUP 3: 106.40 2.382 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)
• SUP 4: 105.85 2.50 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)

BTP futures traded lower Thursday, however hold the bulk of the gains posted across the week. Short-term gains are considered corrective for now, but strength north of the 20-day EMA at 110.66 would prove constructive for the outlook. To resume the downtrend, prices need to slip back below 107.08, a Fibonacci projection on the continuation chart.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z3) Corrective Bounce Extends

• RES 4: 4388.00 High Aug 30 and reversal trigger
• RES 3: 4359.00 High Sep 15 and key resistance
• RES 2: 4257.70 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 4256.00 High Oct 12
• PRICE: 4210.0 @ 08:35 BST Oct 13
• SUP 1: 4082.00 Low Oct 4
• SUP 2: 4055.40 76.4% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 31 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 4034.00 Low Mar 24 (cont)
• SUP 4: 4000.00 Psychological round number

Eurostoxx 50 futures continue to push back against the recent bearish trend condition. Friday’s rally and the follow through early this week is, for now, deemed corrective in nature. Signs of further strength and a bottoming of prices would follow a break back above the 50-day EMA - a key level on Thursday at 4257.70. A break of this average would signal a possible short-term base, opening levels last seen in mid-September.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (Z3) Bear Cycle Hits Pause

• RES 4: 4566.00 High Sep 15 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 4514.50 High Sep 18
• RES 2: 4431.80 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 4427.75 High Oct 12
• PRICE: 4388.25 @ 08:41 BST Oct 12
• SUP 1: 4235.50 Low Oct 4
• SUP 2: 4194.75 Low May 24
• SUP 3: 4166.25 1.50 proj of the Jul 27 - Aug 18 - Sep 1 price swing
• SUP 4: 4134.00 Low May 4

The e-mini S&P printed a higher high for a fifth consecutive session on Thursday before fading into the close. The index has narrowed in on the cluster of resistance at the 50/100-dmas for the Dec contract. Overall, a bear cycle remains in play, however downside momentum has paused in favour of a corrective rally. Pivot resistance remains above at the 50-day EMA at 4431.80, with the medium-term outlook remaining bearish the longer price holds below this level.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Z3) Previous Bear Cycle Still Exerting Influence

• RES 4: $99.73 - 1.236 proj of Jun 23 - Aug 10 - Aug 24 price swing
• RES 3: $96.22 - 1.00 proj of Jun 23 - Aug 10 - Aug 24 price swing
• RES 2: $95.35 - High Sep 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $89.96 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $87.36 @ 15:55 BST Oct 12
• SUP 1: $83.84 - Low Oct 5
• SUP 2: $82.80 - 50.0% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run
• SUP 3: $81.33 - Low Aug 24
• SUP 4: $79.84 - 61.8% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run

Recent weakness remains the driving factor for oil prices, with the inability of Brent to build on this week’s early rally evident in the four consecutive sessions of lower highs for prices. Recent price action resulted in a break of support around the 50-day EMA - $87.43. Short-term trendline support at $88.32, drawn from the Jun 28 low, was also been cleared to confirm the bearish cycle and signal scope for a deeper retracement. $84.58 marks the level at which the gap would be closed, and re-touching this mark would be a bearish development.

WTI TECHS: (X3) Dip Stabilises, But Bears in Control

• RES 4: $99.42 - 1.382 proj of the Jun 28 - Aug 10 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: $97.08 - 1.236 proj of the Jun 28 - Aug 10 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: $91.88/95.03 - High Oct 2 / High Sep 28 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: $86.52 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $84.66 @ 16:08 BST Oct 12
• SUP 1: $81.00 - Low Aug 31
• SUP 2: $79.57 - 50.0% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run
• SUP 3: $77.32 - Low Aug 24
• SUP 4: $75.92 - 61.8% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run

The stronger start to the week for WTI futures faded through the Wednesday close, although dips were put across the Thursday session. Recent bearish price action resulted in a break of support at $88.19, the Sep 26 low. The contract has also cleared support at the 50-day EMA, at $84.46. This signals scope for a deeper retracement towards the $80.00 handle and $79.57, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance is at $86.52, the 20-day EMA. A break would signal a possible reversal.

GOLD TECHS: Base Established, Eyes Turn Higher

• RES 4: $1953.0 - High Sep 1 and key resistance
• RES 3: $1899.7 - 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: $1897.0 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $1885.1 - High Oct 12
• PRICE: $1872.9 @ 16:11 BST Oct 12
• SUP 1: $1813.2 - Low Oct 3
• SUP 2: $1804.9- Low Feb 28 and a key support
• SUP 3: $1786.1 - 61.8% of the Sep 28 ‘22 - May 4 bull leg
• SUP 4: $1774.0 - Low Dec 15 2022

The previously bearish theme reversed further Thursday, putting prices at the highest level since late September and printing five consecutive sessions of higher highs. The 50-day EMA sits above as key resistance at 1897.0, a break above would add to the evidence of a bullish reversal. To the downside, the focus is on $1804.9, the Feb 28 low and a key support.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Theme

• RES 4: $25.014 - High Aug 30
• RES 3: $24.298 - High Sep 4
• RES 2: $23.774 - High Sep 22 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $22.242/22.398 - High Oct 12 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $21.822 @ 16:19 BST Oct 12
• SUP 1: $20.689 - Low Oct 3
• SUP 2: $20.000 - Round number support
• SUP 3: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support
• SUP 4: $19.585 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep ‘22 - May ‘23 upleg

Silver trend conditions are bearish despite the Monday rally, although Friday’s finish close to the highs possibly signalling a short-term corrective cycle. Last week, the metal breached support at $22.111, the Jun 23 low and a bear trigger. This confirms a resumption of the broader bear cycle that started early May. Sights are on the $20.00 handle next. On the upside, firm resistance has been defined at $23.774, the Sep 22 high.