MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EuroStoxx50 Through Resistance

Price Signal Summary - EUROSTOXX 50 Is Through Resistance

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis are firmer and approaching the key resistance at 4238.25 May 10. Key trend support is unchanged at 4029.25, May 13 low. The 20-day EMA marks initial support at 4158.91. EUROSTOXX 50 futures trend conditions remain bullish with the focus on 4099.00,1.00 projection of the Mar - Jul - Oct 2020 price swing.
• In the FX space, EURUSD continues to trade within its recent range. The pair this week cleared 1.2245 and sights set on 1.2285 next, Jan 8 high. Watch support at 1.2160, May 19 low. GBPUSD traded higher yesterday and remains bullish. The focus is on 1.4237, Feb 24 high and this year's high print. A break would confirm a resumption of the broader uptrend. USDJPY has resumed its uptrend breaking above 109.79, May 13 high and the bull trigger. This opens 110.15 next, 76.4% retracement of the Mar 31 - Apr 23 sell-off.
• On the commodity front, Gold remains bulls. The yellow metal has topped $1,900 this week and this opens the Jan 8 high of $1917.6. Trend conditions remain overbought, however this is not impacting the trend. $1872.8, May 25 low is first support. Oil contracts are trading near recent highs. Brent (N1) key resistance is at $70.24, May 18 high and this marks the bull trigger. WTI (N1) has confirmed a fresh trend high print of $67.45 today. This marks a resumption of the underlying uptrend. The focus is on $67.95, Oct 29 2018 high (cont)
• Within FI, Bunds (M1) has stalled ahead of the 50-day EMA at 1470.48. This signals the end of the recent correction. A clear breach of the average is required to signal scope for further gains. Gilts (U1) faced selling pressure yesterday. A firm resistance exists at 127.74/82, high between Apr 20 and May 26.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bullish Focus

• RES 4: 1.2414 High Apr 17, 2018
• RES 3: 1.2349/53 High Jan 6 / High Apr 20, 2018
• RES 2: 1.2285 High Jan 8
• RES 1: 1.2266 High May 25
• PRICE: 1.2198 @ 06:15 BST May 31
• SUP 1: 1.2133/26 Low May 28 / Low May 17
• SUP 2: 1.2052 Low May 13 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 1.2079 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.1986 Low May 5

EURUSD traded below the 20-day EMA Friday but managed to find support at the session low of 1.2133. The outlook remains bullish and the recent pullback is considered a correction. This follows the recent breach of 1.2245, May 19 high confirming an extension of the current bull cycle. The focus is on 1.2285, Jan 8 high. Further out, the 2021 high of 1.2349, Jan 6 high beckons. Key short-term support is unchanged at 1.2052, May 13 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Consolidation Mode

• RES 4: 1.4443 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.4315 High Apr 18, 2018
• RES 2: 1.4237 High Feb 24 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.4234 High May 21
• PRICE: 1.4196 @ 06:24 BST May 31
• SUP 1: 1.4092 Low May 27
• SUP 2: 1.4006/3972 Low May 13 / Low May 10
• SUP 3: 1.3980 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.3858 Low May 6

GBPUSD continues to trade close to recent highs. The outlook remains bullish and sights are on 1.4237, Feb 24 high and the key bull trigger. A break would reinforce a bullish theme and importantly would confirm a resumption of the broader uptrend that started March 2020. On the downside, initial firm support is unchanged at 1.4006, May 13 low where a break would suggest scope for a deeper corrective pullback. 1.4092 is first support.

EURGBP TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 0.87881 2.0% 10-dma envelope / High Feb 12
• RES 3: 0.8731 High Feb 26
• RES 2: 0.8701/21 High May 7 / High Apr 26 and the bull Trigger
• RES 1: 0.8672 High May 25
• PRICE: 0.8594 @ 06:30 BST May 31
• SUP 1: 0.8575/61 Low May 28 / Low May 12
• SUP 2: 0.8531 76.4% retracement of the Apr 5 - 26 rally
• SUP 3: 0.8472 Low Apr 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8443 2.0% 10-dma envelope

EURGBP remains vulnerable, reinforced by the move lower on May 26 and 27. Attention turns to support at 0.8561, May 12 low where a break would strengthen a bearish theme and open 0.8531, a Fibonacci retracement ahead of the key support and bear trigger at 0.8472, Apr 5 low. On the upside, firm short-term resistance has been defined at 0.8672, May 25 high. A break would alter the picture.

USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 111.30 High Mar 26, 2020
• RES 3: 110.97 High Mar 31 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 110.55 High Apr 6
• RES 1: 110.20 High May 28
• PRICE: 109.71 @ 06:45 BST May 31
• SUP 1: 109.04 High May 27
• SUP 2: 108.56/34 Low May 25 / Low May 7 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: 107.48 Low Apr 23 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 106.97 Low Mar 4

The USDJPY outlook remains bullish and the move lower from Friday's high is considered corrective. The break higher last week confirmed a resumption of the recovery that started Apr 23. The pair probed 110.15, a Fibonacci retracement. This turns the focus to this year's high print of 110.97 from Mar 31. A break would confirm a resumption of this year's uptrend. Key short-term support has been defined at 108.56, Low May 25.

EURJPY TECHS: Maintains A Bullish Tone

• RES 4: 134.80 High Feb 8, 2018
• RES 3: 134.43 Bull channel top drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low
• RES 2: 134.19 1.618 proj of Jun - Sep - Oct 2020 swing
• RES 1: 134.06/09 High May 27 / Intraday high
• PRICE: 133.81 @ 06:50 BST May 31
• SUP 1: 132.52 Low May 24
• SUP 2: 131.69 Low May 12
• SUP 3: 130.99 Low May 5 and a key support
• SUP 4: 130.98 Bull channel base drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low

EURJPY traded higher into the end of last week, rallying to touch 134.06. Today's high is marginally higher at 134.09 Fresh highs reinforce bullish conditions signalling scope for further gains within the rising channel drawn off the Oct 30 2020 low. The top of the channel intersects at 134.49. Moving average studies remain in bull mode, reinforcing current conditions. Initial firm support lies at 132.52, May 24 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Remains Above The May Low

• RES 4: 0.8007 High Feb 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.7905 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.7891/95 High May 10 / 76.4% of the Feb 25 - Apr 1 sell-off
• RES 1: 0.7813/46 High May 18 / High May 12
• PRICE: 0.7724 @ 06:59 BST May 31
• SUP 1: 0.7677 Low May 28
• SUP 2: 0.7675 Low May 4 and key support
• SUP 3: 0.7635 Low Apr 14
• SUP 4: 0.7586 Low Apr 13

AUDUSD remains above this month's low of 0.7675 from May 4. A bearish theme dominates and attention is on the 0.7675 level, seen as a firm short-term support. A break would strengthen a bearish case and signal scope for a deeper pullback towards 0.7586, the Apr 13 low. For bulls, clearance of 0.7813, May 18 high would be a bullish development and open 0.7891 unstead, high May 10.

USDCAD TECHS: Range Bound

• RES 4: 1.2419 High Apr 27
• RES 3: 1.2351 High May 4 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 1.2288 High May 13
• RES 1: 1.2147/2203 20-day EMA / High May 6
• PRICE: 1.2080 @ 07:04 BST May 31
• SUP 1: 1.2013 Low May 18
• SUP 2: 1.2000 Psychological round number
• SUP 3: 1.1920 Low May 2015
• SUP 4: 1.1835 2.0% 10-dma envelope

USDCAD is range bound but the outlook remains bearish. The recent key technical development has been the breach of major support at 1.2062, Sep 2017 low. This represents an important pivot point marking either the base of a broad range or the midpoint of a double top reversal pattern. Scope is seen for a test and break of the psychological 1.2000 handle. Initial firm resistance is at 1.2203, May 13 high. A break would signal the start of a correction.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M1) 50-Day EMA As Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 171.27 High Apr 22
• RES 3: 170.98 High May 7 and key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 170.44 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 170.40 High May 26
• PRICE: 169.89 @ 05:19 BST May 31
• SUP 1: 169.02 Low May 24
• SUP 2: 168.29 Low May 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 168.09 0.764 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 25 - Mar 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 167.52 Low Mar 19, 2020 (cont)

Recent gains in Bund futures have stalled just ahead of a key resistance highlighted by the 50-day EMA. The moving average intersects at 170.44. The recent recovery is still considered a correction. Further weakness would signal scope for a move towards 169.02, May 24 low and open the key support and bear trigger at 168.29, May 19 low. For bulls, a clear break of the 50-day EMA is required to strengthen a bullish case.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M1) Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 112.150 High Apr 8
• RES 3: 112.110/120 High May 4, 5, and 6 / High Apr 22
• RES 2: 112.085 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 112.060 High May 26 and 27
• PRICE: 112.045 @ 05:22 BST May 31
• SUP 1: 112.020 Low May 24
• SUP 2: 112.000 Low May 19
• SUP 3: 111.993 76.4% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally
• SUP 4: 111.940 Low Feb 26 ad key support

Recent Schatz futures gains are considered corrective. The outlook remains bearish following the sell-off from May 5 that marked a resumption of the bear cycle since Mar 25. Weakness earlier in May resulted in a breach of 112.060, a previous support in March and April. This strengthens a bearish case and opens 111.940, Feb 26 low. For bulls, a breach of 112.110 is required to signal a reversal. Resistance around the 50-day EMA is at 112.085.

BTP TECHS: (M1) Testing The 50-day EMA

• RES 4: 148.65 High Apr 22
• RES 3: 148.10 61.8% retracement of the Mar 29 - May 19 sell-off
• RES 2: 147.79 High May 4 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 147.39/45 50-day EMA / High May 28
• PRICE: 147.34 @ Close May 28
• SUP 1: 145.64 Low May 21
• SUP 2: 144.48 Low May 17 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 144.16 1.236 proj of the Feb 12 - 26 - Mar 11 price swing
• SUP 4: 143.61 Low Jul 13, 2020 (cont)

BTP futures remain in a clear downtrend following the recent extension lower to 144.48 on Mar 19. However, last week prices recovered and a corrective cycle is in play, allowing a recent oversold condition to unwind. The break of the 20-day EMA exposes the 50-day EMA at 147.39 that is currently being tested. This average represents a firm resistance and a clear break would signal scope for further gains. On the downside, initial firm support is 145.64.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (M1) Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 4175.00 Low Nov 26, 2007 (cont)
• RES 3: 4140.00 High Jan 18, 2008 (cont)
• RES 2: 4099.00 1.00 proj of of the Mar - Jul - Oct 2020 price swing
• RES 1: 4074.00 High May 28
• PRICE: 4057.00 @ 05:51 BST May 31
• SUP 1: 3995.41 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 3918.63/3882.00 50-day EMA / Low May 19
• SUP 3: 3844.00 Low May 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 3821.00 High Mar 18 and recent breakout level

EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain bullish following last week's breach of resistance at 4036.00, May 10 high. The break higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 4099.00, a Fibonacci projection. The climb also maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, reinforcing the current trend condition. On the downside, firm support is unchanged at 3882.00, May 19 low.

E-MINI S&P (M1): All Eyes On Resistance

• RES 4: 4292.25 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 4239.26 1.764 proj of the Feb 1 - Feb 16 - Mar 4 price swing
• RES 2: 4238.25 High May 10 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4217.50 High May 31
• PRICE: 4205.75 @ 06:05 BST May 31
• SUP 1: 4142.50 Low May 24
• SUP 2: 4055.60 Low May 19
• SUP 3: 4029.25 Low May 13 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 4021.00 Low Apr 5

S&P E-minis remain firm. The contract breached former resistance at 4185.00 last week, May 21 high. Recent gains have also reinforced the bullish significance of the recovery in May from support defined by the 50-day EMA. The average has been tested twice this month. Attention is on key resistance and the bull trigger at 4238.25, May 10 high. Initial firm support is unchanged at 4055.50, May 19 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q1) Focus Is On Key Resistance

• RES 4: $71.95 - High Sep 16, 2019 (cont)
• RES 3: $71.75 - High Jan 8 2020 (cont)
• RES 2: $71.38 - High Mar 8 (cont)
• RES 1: $69.90 - High May 18 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $69.13 @ 07:05 BST May 31
• SUP 1: $67.64 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $66.39/64.50 - Low May 24 / Low May 21 and key support
• SUP 3: $63.51 - Low Apr 22
• SUP 4: $61.64 - Low Apr 12

Brent crude traded higher last week extending the recovery from $64.50, May 21 low. The underlying uptrend remains intact and attention is on $69.90, May 18 high and the bull trigger. Price has recently traded below the 50-day EMA however levels around the average continue to provide support. Weakness through $64.50 low is required to signal a short-term top and the start of a corrective pullback.

WTI TECHS: (N1) Fresh Trend High Print

• RES 4: $70.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $68.39 - 2.236 proj of Mar 23 - 30 - Apr 5 price swing
• RES 2: $67.95 - High Oct 29, 2018
• RES 1: $67.52 - High May 28
• PRICE: $66.85 @ 07:09 BST May 31
• SUP 1: $63.63/61.56 - Low May 24 / Low May 21
• SUP 2: $60.55 - Low Apr 22 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: $58.70 - Low Apr 12
• SUP 4: $57.63 - Low Apr 5

WTI crude traded higher Friday and confirmed a fresh trend high print of $67.52. This marks a resumption of the underlying uptrend and signals scope for an extension of the uptrend. The focus is on $67.95, Oct 29 2018 high (cont) and $68.39, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key support has been defined at $61.56, May 21 low. A break is required to suggest a short-term top and the start of a deeper corrective pullback.

GOLD TECHS: Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: $1959.4 - High Jan 6 and key resistance
• RES 3: $1927.7 - High Jan 7
• RES 2: $1917.6 - High Jan 8
• RES 1: $1912.8 - High May 26
• PRICE: $1906.4 @ 07:29 BST May 31
• SUP 1: $1872.8/52.3 - Low May 25 / Low May 19
• SUP 2: $1816.3 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1808.9 - Low May 13
• SUP 4: $1782.1 - Low May 6

Gold bulls remain in charge. Last week's gains confirmed once again a resumption of the underlying uptrend as the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows extends. Price has cleared $1892.7, 76.4% of the Jan 6 - Mar 8 sell-off. This signals scope for a climb towards $1917.6, high Jan 8 while further out, attention is on $1959.4, Jan 6 high and the key resistance. Initial firm support is $1852.3.

SILVER TECHS: Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: $30.100 - High Feb 1 and key resistance
• RES 3: $30.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $29.053 - High Feb 2
• RES 1: $28.753 - High May 18
• PRICE: $27.893 @ 07:41 BST May 31
• SUP 1: $27.202 - Low May 21
• SUP 2: $26.776 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $26.721 - Low Mar 13 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: $25.718 - Low Apr 29

The Silver outlook remains bullish. Price action May 18 probed $28.609, 76.4% of the sell-off between Feb 1 - Mar 31. This session's high of $28.753 marks a short-term bull trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and pave the way for strength towards $29.00 and above. Key short-term support has been defined at $26.721, Mar 13 low. Clearance of this level is required to threaten the trend. Initial support is at $27.202.