MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EURUSD Breaches Key Support Post-Fed

Price Signal Summary – EURUSD Breaches Key Support Post-Fed

• S&P E-Minis traded lower Wednesday, extending the pullback from 3928.00, the Nov 1 high. Despite the latest retracement, a bull cycle remains in play following the recovery from 3502.00, the Oct 13 low. A bullish EUROSTOXX 50 futures theme remains intact despite the pullback from Tuesday’s high of 3679.00. Recent gains have resulted in a print above resistance at 3678.00, the Sep 13 high.
• EURUSD traded in a volatile manner Wednesday and ended the day down. The pair has breached a key area of support around 0.9812 today (0.9821 yesterday). This marks the top of the bear channel that was breached last week. EURGBP is unchanged and the short-term trend needle continues to point south. The recent print below support at 0.8579, Oct 17 low, reinforces the current bearish condition and attention is on 0.8559 next, a Fibonacci retracement. AUDUSD traded lower Wednesday, extending the pullback from the recent high of 0.6522 on Oct 27. A deeper retracement would undermine the recent bullish theme and refocus attention on the key support at 0.6170, the Oct 13 low.
• A downtrend in Gold remains intact and Wednesday’s weakness highlights this theme. A bearish outlook follows the reversal from $1729.5, Oct 4 high and the move lower signals the end of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 bull phase. The WTI futures outlook is bullish and the continued recovery from Monday’s low reinforces this theme. The contract has defined a key short-term support at $81.30, the Oct 18 low and has recently cleared resistance at $88.66, the Oct 12 high.
• Bund futures have traded lower today and, in the process, breached support at 137.57, the Oct 27 low. The break of this level undermines the recent bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement. Gilt futures maintain a bullish theme and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Price has cleared the 20-day EMA and the continuation higher last week resulted in a break of key resistance at 100.92, the Oct 4 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Breaches Key Short-Term Support

• RES 4: 1.0327 High Aug 12
• RES 3: 1.0273 1.382 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 1.0198 High Sep 12 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.9976/1.0094 High Nov 2 / High Oct 27
• PRICE: 0.9783 @ 08:18 GMT Nov 03
• SUP 1: 0.9765 Trendline support drawn from the Sep 28 low
• SUP 2: 0.9705 Low Oct 21
• SUP 3: 0.9633 Low Oct 13
• SUP 4: 0.9536 Low Sep 28 and the bear trigger

EURUSD traded in a volatile manner Wednesday and ended the day down. The pair has breached a key area of support around 0.9812 today (0.9821 yesterday). This marks the top of the bear channel that was breached last week. A clear break of this support would undermine the recent bullish outlook and signal scope for a deeper pullback. On the upside, a recovery and break of 0.9976, would be seen as a bullish development.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trades Below The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.1834 76.4% Fib retracement for the Aug - Sep downleg
• RES 3: 1.1799 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Oct 5 - 12 price swing
• RES 2: 1.1738/87 High Sep 13 / 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 1.1566/1645 High Oct 27 / High Nov 1
• PRICE: 1.1306 @ 08:25 GMT Nov 3
• SUP 1: 1.1272 Low Oct 25
• SUP 2: 1.1061 Low Oct 21
• SUP 3: 1.0924 Low Oct 12 and a key short-term support
• SUP 4: 1.0763 Low Sep 29

GBPUSD is trading lower, extending the pullback from 1.1645, the Nov 1 high and a key resistance. Price has traded below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and an extension lower would expose 1.1272 next, the Oct 25 high. The next firm support lies at 1.1061, Oct 21 low. The latest pullback is considered corrective - for now. A reversal higher and a break of 1.1645, would confirm a resumption of the recent bull cycle.

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 0.9066/9266 High Sep 28 / High Sep 26 and key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8980 High Sep 29
• RES 2: 0.8781/8867 High Oct 21 / 12
• RES 1: 0.8678 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8616 @ 06:18 GMT Nov 3
• SUP 1: 0.8559 76.4% retracement of the Aug 2 - Sep 26 rally
• SUP 2: 0.8522 Low Aug 30
• SUP 3: 0.8471 Low Aug 28
• SUP 4: 0.8408 Low Aug 24

EURGBP is unchanged and the short-term trend needle continues to point south. The recent print below support at 0.8579, Oct 17 low, reinforces the current bearish condition and attention is on 0.8559 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would open 0.8522, the Aug 30 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance is unchanged at 0.8781, the Oct 21 high, where a break would reinstate a bullish outlook.

USDJPY TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 153.39 3.764 proj of the May 24 - Jul 14 - Aug 2 price swing
• RES 3: 152.30 High Jul 1990
• RES 2: 151.95 High Oct 21
• RES 1: 149.71 High Oct 24
• PRICE: 147.64 @ 06:24 GMT Nov 3
• SUP 1: 145.68/145.11 Low Nov 2 / Low Oct 27
• SUP 2: 144.51 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 143.53 Low Oct 5
• SUP 4: 141.77 Low Sep 23

USDJPY still appears vulnerable despite the recent recovery from 145.11, Oct 27 low. Last week’s print below 145.56, Oct 24 low, reinforces a bearish condition and suggests the correction lower is likely to extend. Momentum studies continue to trend down. Attention is on the 50-day EMA at 144.51 - a key support. Key resistance is at 151.95, the Oct 21 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is at 149.71.

EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Pullback Extends

• RES 4: 149.46 1.382 proj of the May 12 - Jun 28 - Aug 2 price swing
• RES 3: 148.88 High Dec 9 2014
• RES 2: 148.40/45 High Oct 21 and the bull trigger / High Dec 15 2014
• RES 1: 147.75 High Oct 31
• PRICE: 144.86 @ 06:45 GMT Nov 3
• SUP 1: 143.80 Low Oct 24 and key support
• SUP 2: 143.26 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 141.78 Low Oct 13
• SUP 4: 140.90 Low Oct 10

EURJPY maintains this week’s softer tone and price has traded below the 20-day EMA. The outlook is bullish and key support to watch lies at 143.80, Oct 24 low. A break would suggest scope for a deeper pullback. Key resistance is unchanged at 148.40, the Oct 21 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 149.46, a Fibonacci retracement. MA studies are in a bull mode position highlighting an uptrend.

AUDUSD TECHS: Remains Below The Oct 27 High

• RES 4: 0.6682 Low Jul 14 and a recent breakout level
• RES 3: 0.6656 High Sep 23
• RES 2: 0.6600 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 0.6526/47 50-day EMA / High Oct 4 and key resistance
• PRICE: 0.6345 @ 06:55 GMT Nov 3
• SUP 1: 0.6303 Low Oct 25
• SUP 2: 0.6210/6170 Low Oct 21 / 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6133 1.382 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6099 76.4% retracement of the 2020 - 2021 bull cycle

AUDUSD traded lower Wednesday, extending the pullback from the recent high of 0.6522 on Oct 27. A deeper retracement would undermine the recent bullish theme and refocus attention on the key support at 0.6170, the Oct 13 low. This is the trigger for a resumption of the longer-term downtrend. A recovery would expose 0.6522 where a break is required to signal scope for a stronger corrective bull cycle.

USDCAD TECHS: Bounce From Recent Lows Extends

• RES 4: 1.4016 3.382 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 7 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 1.4000 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 1.3855/3977 High Oct 21 / 13 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.3774 High Oct 24
• PRICE: 1.33738 @ 08:07 GMT Nov 3
• SUP 1: 1.3496 Low Oct 27
• SUP 2: 1.3489 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3358 Low Sep 21
• SUP 4: 1.3227 Low Sep 20

USDCAD continues to trade above 1.3496, the Oct 27 low and remains above the 50-day EMA, at 1.3489. These two chart points highlight an important support zone where a break is required to trigger an extension of the bear cycle that started on Oct 13. The extension higher this week signals scope for a climb towards 1.3855, the Oct 21 high, where a break would undermine the recent bearish and expose 1.3977, the Oct 13 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z2) Trades Through Support

• RES 4: 142.87 High Oct 4 and a key reversal point
• RES 3: 141.74 High Oct 5
• RES 2: 140.76/92 50-day EMA / High Oct 28
• RES 1: 139.95 High Nov 1
• PRICE: 137.34 @ 08:19 GMT Nov 3
• SUP 1: 136.97 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 136.46/134.02 Low Oct 25 / 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 133.74 0.618 proj of the Aug 2 - 12 - 15 price swing
• SUP 4: 132.89 Low Oct 28 2011

Bund futures have traded lower today and in the process breached support at 137.57, the Oct 27 low. The break of this level undermines the recent bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement. Attention turns to 136.46, the Oct 25 low. Note that key support is still far off at 134.02, the Oct 21 low. On the upside, key resistance is at the 50-day EMA, at 140.76. Clearance of the average is required to strengthen a bullish case.

BOBL TECHS: (Z2) Extends This Week’s Bearish Retracement

• RES 4: 122.510 High Sep 12
• RES 3: 121.950 High Oct 4 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 121.010/330 High Oct 28 / 5
• RES 1: 120.420 High Nov 1
• PRICE: 119.050 @ 08:27 GMT Nov 3
• SUP 1: 118.900 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 118.430 Low Oct 24
• SUP 3: 117.630 2.50 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 117.342 2.618 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing

Bobl futures are trading lower and have breached support at 119.090, the Oct 27 low. This undermines the recent bullish theme and an extension lower would highlight the risk of a pullback towards the key support and bear trigger at 117.630, the Oct 21 low. On the upside, key resistance has been defined at 121.010, the Oct 28 high. A break of this level is required to confirm a resumption of bullish activity.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z2) Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 108.010 High Sep 13
• RES 3: 107.770 High Oct 4 and the reversal trigger
• RES 2: 107.610 High Oct 5
• RES 1: 107.165/400 High Nov 1 / High Oct 28
• PRICE: 106.760 @ 08:33 GMT Nov 3
• SUP 1: 106.675 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 106.350 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 106.270 2.50 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.00 Round number support

The Schatz futures primary trend direction is down. The continuation lower this week undermines the recent bull theme. The contract has cleared initial support at 106.710, the Oct 27 low. The break lower strengthens a bearish threat and an extension lower would highlight potential for a test of the key support and bear trigger at 106.350, the Oct 21 low. Key resistance is at 107.400, Oct 28 high. A break would confirm a resumption of bullish activity.

GILT TECHS: (Z2) Trend Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 106.84 High Sep 8
• RES 3: 106.25 High Sep 12
• RES 2: 105.34 High Sep 22 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 104.39 High Oct 27 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 103.11 @ Close Nov 2
• SUP 1: 100.38 Low Oct 25
• SUP 2: 100.21/98.15 20-day EMA / Low Oct 24
• SUP 3: 95.82 Low Oct 21 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: 94.82/92.66 Low Oct 17 / 14

Gilt futures maintain a bullish theme and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Price has cleared the 20-day EMA and the continuation higher last week resulted in a break of key resistance at 100.92, the Oct 4 high. The breach strengthens bullish conditions and opens 105.34 next, the Sep 23 high. Key support has been defined at 95.82, the Oct 21 low. A break of this level would be bearish.

BTP TECHS: (Z2) Pullback Extends

• RES 4: 121.32 High Aug 25
• RES 3: 120.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 119.06 High Sep 8 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 116.54/117.93 High Nov 1 / High Oct 27 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 113.71 @ 08:39 GMT Nov 3
• SUP 1: 112.98 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 112.07/110.14 Low Oct 25 / 14
• SUP 3: 108.82 Low Oct 21
• SUP 4: 108.13 Low Sep 28 and key support

BTP futures continue to trade below 117.93, the Oct 27 high. The short-term outlook is bullish following last week’s climb, however, the contract has traded lower again today. A continuation lower would undermine a bull theme and expose the next support 112.07, the Oct 25 low. Key support lies at 108.82, Oct 21 low and 108.13, the Sep 28 trend low. On the upside, the contract needs to clear resistance at 117.93 to confirm a resumption of bullish activity.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z2) Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 3810.00 High Aug 17 and key pivot point
• RES 3: 3753.00 High Aug 19
• RES 2: 3692.00 High Aug 26
• RES 1: 3678.00/79.00 High Sep 13 and key resistance / High Nov 1
• PRICE: 3587.00 @ 06:23 GMT Nov 3
• SUP 1: 3555.00/3508.50 Low Oct 28 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 3418.00 Low Oct 21
• SUP 3: 3352.00 Low Oct 14
• SUP 4: 3251.00/3236.00 Low Oct 13 / 3 and a key support zone

A bullish EUROSTOXX 50 futures theme remains intact despite the pullback from Tuesday’s high of 3679.00. Recent gains have resulted in a print above resistance at 3678.00, the Sep 13 high. A clear break of this level would strengthen bullish conditions and pave the way for gains above the 3700.00 level. The next key resistance is at 3810.00, the Aug 17 high. Firm support is seen at the 50-day EMA. The average intersects at 3508.50.

E-MINI S&P (Z2): Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 4100.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 4023.44 61.8% retracement of the Aug 16 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 2: 3981.25 High Sep 14
• RES 1: 3928.00 High Nov 1
• PRICE: 3773.25 @ 06:53 GMT Nov 3
• SUP 1: 3736.50/3641.50 Low Oct 24 / 21
• SUP 2: 3590.50/3502.00 Low Oct 17 / 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 3491.13 50.0% retracement of the 2020 - 2022 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 3453.78 1.618 proj of the Aug 16 - Sep 7 - 13 price swing

S&P E-Minis traded lower Wednesday, extending the pullback from 3928.00, the Nov 1 high. Despite the latest retracement, a bull cycle remains in play following the recovery from 3502.00, the Oct 13 low. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on 3502.00, where a break would confirm the bull theme and open 3981.25, the Sep 14 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 3641.50, the Oct 21 low. Initial firm support to watch is at 3736.50.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F3) Sights Are On Key Resistance

• RES 4: $105.58 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 8 - Sep 26 bear leg
• RES 3: $102.28 - High Jul 5
• RES 2: $99.50 - High Aug 30
• RES 1: $96.75 - High Oct 10 and key resistance
• PRICE: $95.56 @ 06:58 GMT Nov 3
• SUP 1: $91.46 - Low Oct 31 and a key near-term support
• SUP 2: $87.52 Low Oct 18
• SUP 3: $84.67 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep 26 - Oct 10 rally
• SUP 4: $80.94 - Low Sep 26 and key support

Brent futures traded higher Wednesday and the contract maintains a firmer tone. Recent gains confirm an extension of the recovery from $87.52, the Oct 18 low and reinforce bullish conditions. The focus is on resistance at $96.75, the Oct 10 high and the next key resistance. A break of this level would strengthen the bullish condition. On the downside, initial firm support lies at $91.46, the Oct 31 low.

WTI TECHS: (Z2) Heading North

• RES 4: $97.38 - 61.8% retracement of the Jun 8 - Sep 26 downleg
• RES 3: $95.55 - High Aug 30
• RES 2: $92.34 - High Oct 12 / 10 and key resistance
• RES 1: $90.36 - High Nov 2
• PRICE: $89.08 @ 07:10 GMT Nov 3
• SUP 1: $85.30/81.30 - Low Oct 31 / Low Oct 18 and key support
• SUP 2: $79.63 - 76.4% retracement points of the Sep 26 - Oct 10 rally
• SUP 3: $78.36 - Low Sep 30
• SUP 4: $75.70 - Low Sep 26 and the bear trigger

The WTI futures outlook is bullish and the continued recovery from Monday’s low reinforces this theme. The contract has defined a key short-term support at $81.30, the Oct 18 low and has recently cleared resistance at $88.66, the Oct 12 high. The break of this hurdle signals scope for a climb towards $92.34, the Oct 10 high and a key resistance. On the downside, initial firm support lies at $85.30, the Oct 31 low.

GOLD TECHS: Bear Threat Still Present

• RES 4: $1729.5 - High Oct 4 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $1714.8 - High Oct 7
• RES 2: $1681.1 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $1674.9 - High Oct 26
• PRICE: $1631.2 @ 07:12 GMT Nov 3
• SUP 1: $1615.0 - Low Sep 28 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: $1610.5 - 1.00 proj of the Jun 13 - Jul 21 - Aug 10 swing
• SUP 3: $1600.00 - Round number support
• SUP 4: $1569.1 - Low Apr 1 2020

A downtrend in Gold remains intact and Wednesday’s weakness highlights this theme. A bearish outlook follows the reversal from $1729.5, Oct 4 high and the move lower signals the end of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 bull phase. An extension lower would open key support and the bear trigger at $1615.0, Sep 28 low. On the upside, the next firm resistance is at $1681.1, the 50-day EMA. A break of this EMA is required to highlight a stronger reversal.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Theme Remains Intact

• RES 4: $21.540 - High Jun 27
• RES 3: $21.242 - High Oct 4 and key resistance
• RES 2: $20.499 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 4 - 14 downleg
• RES 1: $20.080 - High Oct 2
• PRICE: $19.173 @ 08:13 GMT Nov 3
• SUP 1: $18.904/17.967 - Low Oct 31 / Low Sep 28
• SUP 2: $17.562 - Low Sep 1 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: $16.955 - Low Jun 15 2020
• SUP 4: $16.473 - 1.00 proj of the Jun 6 - Jul 14 - Aug 10 price swing

The Silver outlook remains bearish and the metal has failed to hold on to this week’s gains. Resistance has been defined at $20.080, Wednesday’s high, where a break would once again threaten the bearish theme. A continuation lower would refocus attention on the next firm support at $17.967, the Sep 28 low. Clearance of this level would open $17.562, the Sep 1 low and the bear trigger.