MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EURUSD Bullish Conditions Remain Intact

Price Signal Summary - EURUSD bullish conditions remain intact

• S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. Price rallied sharply higher last week and cleared resistance at 3928.00, Nov 1 high. The break strengthens a short-term bullish condition and price has established a sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A bullish EUROSTOXX 50 futures outlook remains intact following last week’s strong gains and the contract is trading at its recent highs. Price has cleared resistance at 3810.00, Aug 17 high and an important bull trigger.
• EURUSD bullish conditions remain intact and the pair is trading higher. Recent gains have confirmed a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart. EURGBP is consolidating. The outlook is bullish with the cross trading closer to its recent highs. Resistance at 0.8781, the Oct 21 high, was breached last week. This has strengthened the bullish theme and opens 0.8867 next. The USDJPY outlook remains bearish following last week’s sell-off. A continuation of the current bear cycle would set the scene for a move towards 138.05 and 137.37, the Aug 30 and 29 lows respectively.
• Gold rallied sharply higher last week and remains bullish. Last week’s gains resulted in the break of a number of important resistance points. The yellow metal has cleared $1729.5, the Oct 4 high. The pullback in WTI futures early last week continues to highlight a bearish threat. A bearish shooting star candle on Nov 7 was followed by a bearish engulfing candle the following day - a strong bear signal.
• Bund futures are trading below last week’s highs. Price has recently pierced the 50-day EMA at 139.94. A clear breach of this average would threaten the recent bearish theme and highlight a stronger short-term reversal. Gilt futures remain in a short-term uptrend and last week’s strength reinforces bullish conditions. The contract has cleared resistance at 104.39, the Oct 27 high and confirmed a resumption of the uptrend.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Resumes Its Uptrend

• RES 4: 1.0615 High Jun 27
• RES 3: 1.0559 1.764 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 1.0536 High Jun 29
• RES 1: 1.0450 1.764 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - 13 price swing
• PRICE: 1.0406 @ 08:17 GMT Nov 15
• SUP 1: 1.0163 Low Nov 11
• SUP 2: 1.0094 High Oct 27 and a key near-term resistance
• SUP 3: 0.9936 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4: 0.9836 Trendline support drawn from the Sep 28 low

EURUSD bullish conditions remain intact and the pair is trading higher. Recent gains have confirmed a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart and moving average studies have crossed to highlight a potential bull mode set-up. Resistance at 1.0368, the Aug 10 high, has been cleared. This opens 1.0450, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at 1.0094, the Oct 27 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 1.2069 1.00 proj of the Sep 26 - Oct 5 - 12 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2000 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 1.1901 High Aug 26
• RES 1: 1.1872 High Nov 14
• PRICE: 1.1774 @ 06:03 GMT Nov 15
• SUP 1: 1.1472 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.1334/1150 Low Nov 09 / Nov 04 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.1061 Low Oct 21
• SUP 4: 1.0924 Low Oct 12 and a key short-term support

The GBPUSD outlook remains bullish. The pair has recently cleared resistance at 1.1645, the Oct 27 high, to confirm a resumption of the bull cycle that started Sep 26. This maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and opens 1.1901, the Aug 26 high ahead of the 1.2000 psychological handle. On the downside, initial firm support has been defined at 1.1334, the Nov 9 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Moving Average Set-Up

• RES 4: 0.9066/9266 High Sep 28 / High Sep 26 and key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8980 High Sep 29
• RES 2: 0.8867 High Oct 12
• RES 1: 0.8829 High Nov 09
• PRICE: 0.8773 @ 06:22 GMT Nov 15
• SUP 1: 0.8692 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8560/59 Low Oct 31 / 76.4% of Aug 2 - Sep 26 rally
• SUP 3: 0.8522 Low Aug 30
• SUP 4: 0.8471 Low Aug 28

EURGBP is consolidating. The outlook is bullish with the cross trading closer to its recent highs. Resistance at 0.8781, the Oct 21 high, was breached last week. This has strengthened the bullish theme and opens 0.8867 next, the Oct 12 high. Note that moving average studies are in a bull mode position, highlighting a rising cycle. For bears, a stronger reversal lower and a move through the Oct 31 low of 0.8560 is required to resume recent bearish activity.

USDJPY TECHS: Bear Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 145.16 20-day EMA
• RES 3: 144.34 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 142.48 High Nov 11
• RES 1: 140.80 High Nov 14
• PRICE: 140.28 @ 06:53 GMT Nov 15
• SUP 1: 138.46 Low Nov 14
• SUP 2: 138.05 Low Aug 30
• SUP 3: 137.37 Low Aug 29
• SUP 4: 135.49 76.4% retracement of the Aug 2 - Oct 21 bull leg

The USDJPY outlook remains bearish following last week’s sell-off. A continuation of the current bear cycle would set the scene for a move towards 138.05 and 137.37, the Aug 30 and 29 lows respectively. The pair has pierced 138.64, 61.8% of the Aug 2 - Oct 21 bull leg. A clear break of this Fibonacci retracement would reinforce bearish conditions. Initial firm resistance is seen at 144.34, the 50-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Recovers From Friday’s Low

• RES 4: 148.40/45 High Oct 21 and the bull trigger / High Dec 15 2014
• RES 3: 147.75 High Oct 31
• RES 2: 147.10 High Nov 9
• RES 1: 145.27 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 145.05 @ 06:59 GMT Nov 15
• SUP 1: 142.57 Low Nov 11 and the bear Trigger
• SUP 2: 141.78 Low Oct 13
• SUP 3: 140.90 Low Oct 10
• SUP 4: 140.00 76.4% retracement of the Sep 26 - Oct 21 rally

EURJPY traded sharply lower on Oct 11 but has recovered from last week’s lows. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of support at 143.80, the Oct 24 low and price traded below the 50-day EMA. A resumption of weakness would signal potential for a deeper retracement and open 141.78, the Oct 13 low. On the upside, a stronger reversal higher and a break of resistance at 147.10, the Nov 9 high would instead expose the bull trigger at 148.40.

AUDUSD TECHS: Uptrend Extends

• RES 4: 0.6956 High Aug 30
• RES 3: 0.6909 76.4% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 2: 0.6800 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 0.6768 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 downleg
• PRICE: 0.6753 @ 08:05 GMT Nov 15
• SUP 1: 0.6578 Low Nov 11
• SUP 2: 0.6529/0.6482 50-day EMA / 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.6387 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 and a key support

AUDUSD remains firm and continues to climb. This strengthens and reinforces current bullish conditions and signals scope for an extension of the rally that started mid-October. The pair is approaching 0.6768, 61.8% of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 downleg. A break of this level would open the 0.6800 handle. Firm short-term support has been defined at 0.6387, last Thursday’s low. Initial support lies at 0.6578, the Nov 11 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 1.3808 High Nov 3 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3718 Trendline resistance drawn from the Oct 13 high
• RES 2: 1.3571 High Nov 10
• RES 1: 1.3361/1.3475 High Nov 11 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3257 @ 08:11 GMT Nov 15
• SUP 1: 1.3236 Low Nov 11
• SUP 2: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally
• SUP 3: 1.3139 Low Sep 14
• SUP 4: 1.3023 76.4% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally

USDCAD maintains a bearish theme and the pair is trading at its recent lows. Last Thursday’s sell-off resulted in a new multi-month low, reinforcing a bearish theme and marking an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The outlook remains bearish. A continuation lower would open 1.3205, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.3571, the Nov 10 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z2) Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 142.87 High Oct 4 and a key reversal point
• RES 3: 141.74 High Oct 5
• RES 2: 140.92 High Oct 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 140.72 High Nov 10
• PRICE: 138.56 @ 05:14 GMT Nov 15
• SUP 1: 138.19 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 135.76/65 Low Nov 8 / 76.4% of the Oct 21 - 28 bull phase
• SUP 3: 135.23 Low Oct 24
• SUP 4: 134.02 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger

Bund futures are trading below last week’s highs. Price has recently pierced the 50-day EMA at 139.94. A clear breach of this average would threaten the recent bearish theme and highlight a stronger short-term reversal. This would open 140.92, the Oct 28 high and 142.87, the Oct 4 high. The 20-day EMA is seen as initial support - it intersects at 138.19. Key short-term support lies at 135.76, the Nov 8 low.

BOBL TECHS: (Z2) Trading Above Support

• RES 4: 121.950 High Oct 4 and a reversal trigger
• RES 3: 121.330 High Oct 5
• RES 2: 121.010 High Oct 28 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 120.530 High Nov 10
• PRICE: 119.330 @ 05:22 GMT Nov 15
• SUP 1: 119.110/118.260 Low Nov 10 / 8 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 117.630 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 117.342 2.618 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 116.986 2.764 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing

Bobl futures continue to trade below last week’s highs. The rally last week resulted in a test above the 50-day EMA at 120.280. A clear break of this EMA would undermine the recent bearish theme and expose 121.010, the Oct 28 high and potentially 121.950 further out, the Oct 4 high. On the downside, a break of 118.260, Nov 8 low is required to highlight a resumption of bearish activity.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z2) Broader Trend Condition Still Bearish

• RES 4: 107.610 High Oct 5
• RES 3: 107.400 High Oct 28 and key resistance
• RES 2: 107.202 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 107.075 High Nov 11
• PRICE: 106.685 @ 05:29 GMT Nov 15
• SUP 1: 106.615/415 Low Nov 10 / 8
• SUP 2: 106.350 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 106.270 2.50 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.00 Round number support

Schatz futures continue to trade above the Nov 8 low. The trend condition remains bearish, however, a resumption of last week’s gains would expose resistance at the 50-day EMA which intersects at 107.202. Clearance of this average would signal scope for a stronger short-term recovery. On the downside, key support lies at 106.415, the Nov 8 low and 106.350, the Oct 21 low. The latter is a bear trigger.

GILT TECHS: (Z2) Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 107.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 106.84 High Sep 8
• RES 2: 106.25 High Sep 12
• RES 1: 105.59 High Nov 10
• PRICE: 104.32 @ Close Nov 14
• SUP 1: 102.34/99.92 50-day EMA / Low Nov 8
• SUP 2: 98.15 Low Oct 24
• SUP 3: 95.82 Low Oct 21 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: 94.82/92.66 Low Oct 17 / 14

Gilt futures remain in a short-term uptrend and last week’s strength reinforces bullish conditions. The contract has cleared resistance at 104.39, the Oct 27 high and confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. Note too that the move higher also confirmed the recent bull flag formation on the daily chart. Resistance at 105.34, the Nov 4 high has been pierced. A clear break would open 106.25, the Sep 12 high. Key support is at 99.92, the Nov 8 low.

BTP TECHS: (Z2) Resistance Appears Exposed

• RES 4: 121.32 High Aug 25
• RES 3: 120.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 119.06 High Sep 8 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 118.00 High Nov 10
• PRICE: 115.989 @ Close Nov 14
• SUP 1: 114.40/112.45 20-day EMA / Low Nov 8
• SUP 2: 112.07/110.14 Low Oct 25 / 14
• SUP 3: 108.82 Low Oct 21
• SUP 4: 108.13 Low Sep 28 and key support

BTP futures continue to trade below last week’s high. The move higher last week resulted in a test of resistance at 117.93, the Oct 27 high. A clear break would suggest scope for an extension towards 119.06, Sep 8 high and a key resistance. Initial firm support is seen at 114.40, the 20-day EMA ahead of 112.45, the Nov 8 low. A break below the latter would reinstate a bearish theme.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z2) Testing Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 115-14+ 50.0% retracement of the Aug 2 - Oct 21 downleg
• RES 3: 114-17 High Sep 20
• RES 2: 113-30 High Oct 4 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 112-19 High Oct 27 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 112-00+ @ 15:22 GMT Nov 14
• SUP 1: 111-00/109-10+ 20-day EMA / Low Nov 04
• SUP 2: 108-26+ Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 108-06+ Low Oct 2007 (cont)
• SUP 4: 107.12 3.0% 10-dma envelope

Treasuries traded sharply higher last Thursday, resulting in a break of resistance at 111-31, the Oct 27 high. The contract has also pierced the 50-day EMA, at 112-12+. A clear break of the EMA would strengthen the case for short-term bulls and open 113-30, the Oct 4 high and a key resistance. On the downside, key support has been defined at 108-26+, the Oct 21 low. Initial support lies at 111-00, the 20-day EMA.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z2) Heading North

• RES 4: 4000.00 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 3961.20 61.8/% of the Nov ‘21 - Mar ‘22 bear leg (cont)
• RES 2: 3944.00 High Mar 29 and a key resistance (cont)
• RES 1: 3914.00 High Nov 14
• PRICE: 3891.00 @ 05:52 GMT Nov 15
• SUP 1: 3810.00/3697.00 High Aug 7 / Low Nov 10
• SUP 2: 3664.50 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 3578.70 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 3418.00 Low Oct 21

A bullish EUROSTOXX 50 futures outlook remains intact following last week’s strong gains and the contract is trading at its recent highs. Price has cleared resistance at 3810.00, Aug 17 high and an important bull trigger. Moving average studies are in a bull mode set-up and this highlights the current positive market sentiment. The focus is on 3944.00, the Mar 29 high on the continuation chart. Initial firm support lies at Thursday's 3697.00 low.

E-MINI S&P (Z2): Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 4175.00 High Sep 13 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 4146.63 76.4% retracement of the Aug 16 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 2: 4100.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4023.44 61.8% retracement of the Aug 16 - Oct 13 downleg
• PRICE: 3988.50 @ 07:00 GMT Nov 15
• SUP 1: 3842.49 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 3750.00 Low Nov 9
• SUP 3: 3704.25 Low Nov3 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 3641.50 Low Oct 21

S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. Price rallied sharply higher last week and cleared resistance at 3928.00, Nov 1 high. The break strengthens a short-term bullish condition and price has established a sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the daily scale. This opens 4023.44 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 3704.25, the Nov 3 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F3) Testing Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $105.58 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 8 - Sep 26 bear leg
• RES 3: $102.28 - High Jul 5
• RES 2: $100.10 - High Jul 29
• RES 1: $96.95/99.56 - High Nov 14 / 7 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $93.18 @ 06:56 GMT Nov 15
• SUP 1: $91.73 - Low Nov 10 and a key support
• SUP 2: $87.52 - Low Oct 18 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: $83.38 - Low Sep 30
• SUP 4: $80.94 - Low Sep 26 and key medium-term support

Brent futures traded lower Monday. A bearish threat remains present following last week’s reversal lower from 99.56, the Nov 7 high. A bearish engulfing pattern on Nov 8 reinforced bearish conditions. Price is testing the 50-day EMA at $92.68. A clear break of this EMA would open the $90.00 handle and $87.52, the Oct 18 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at $99.56, the Nov 7 high. A break would be bullish.

WTI TECHS: (Z2) Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: $99.79 - High Jul 5
• RES 3: $97.38 - 61.8% retracement of the Jun 8 - Sep 26 downleg
• RES 2: $95.55 - High Aug 30
• RES 1: $90.10/93.74 - High Nov 11 / 7 and key resistance
• PRICE: $85.66 @ 07:08 GMT Nov 15
• SUP 1: $84.70 - Low Nov 10 and a key support
• SUP 2: $81.30 - Low Oct 18 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: $78.36 - Low Sep 30
• SUP 4: $75.70 - Low Sep 26 and a key medium-term support

The pullback in WTI futures early last week continues to highlight a bearish threat. A bearish shooting star candle on Nov 7 was followed by a bearish engulfing candle the following day - a strong bear signal. Yesterday’s move lower reinforces this theme. A continuation lower would open $81.30, Oct 18 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance is at $93.74, Nov 7 high. A break of this hurdle would be bullish.

GOLD TECHS: Bullish Trend Conditions

• RES 4: $1833.0 - High Jun 29
• RES 3: $1807.9 - High Aug 10 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $1800.0 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $1784.4 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $1780.14 @ 08:20 GMT Nov 15
• SUP 1: $1729.5/1702.3 - High Oct 4 / Low Nov 9
• SUP 2: $1692.8 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1664.8 - Low Nov 8
• SUP 4: $1615.0 - Low Sep 28 and a bear trigger

Gold rallied sharply higher last week and remains bullish. Last week’s gains resulted in the break of a number of important resistance points. The yellow metal has cleared $1729.5, the Oct 4 high. This strengthens the current bullish theme and paves the way for an extension towards the $1800.0 handle and resistance at $1807.9, the Aug 10 high. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at $1702.3, the Nov 9 low.

SILVER TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: $23.360 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 3: $22.517 - High Jun 6
• RES 2: $22.252 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 1: $22.064 - High Nov 11
• PRICE: $22.048 @ 07:21 GMT Nov 15
• SUP 1: $20.197 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $18.835/17.967 - Low Nov 3 / Low Sep 28
• SUP 3: $17.562 - Low Sep 1 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: $16.955 - Low Jun 15 2020

The Silver outlook remains bullish. The metal rallied sharply higher on Nov 4 and traded higher last week. Price has breached resistance at $21.242, the Oct 4 high. The break strengthens short-term bullish conditions and highlights a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart. This opens $22.253, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support is seen at $20.367, the 20-day EMA.