MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EURUSD Confirms Resumption of Downtrend

Price Signal Summary – EURUSD Confirms Resumption of Downtrend

• In the equity space, the uptrend in S&P E-minis maintain a bullish tone and this week's pullback is considered corrective. Another all-time high print was registered Nov 5. Continued gains confirm a resumption of the uptrend and the focus is on 4717.00 next, a Fibonacci projection. EUROSTOXX 50 futures uptrend remains intact and the recent pullback is considered corrective - it appears to be a shallow correction. The recent breach of 4223.00, Sep 6 high and a former bull trigger strengthened the bullish theme.
• In FX, EURUSD returned lower Wednesday, showing below the 1.1514, Nov 5 low to confirm a resumption of its downtrend. The move lower maintains the downward price sequence within the bear channel drawn from the Jun 1 high. GBPUSD traded sharply lower yesterday. The pair has breached support at 1.3412, Sep 29 low to confirm a resumption of the current bear trend and this paves the way for an extension lower short-term. USDJPY worked against the short-term softer tone Wednesday. The strong recovery signals the potential end of the recent corrective pullback and yesterday's candle pattern appears to be a bullish engulfing reversal.
• On the commodity front, Gold rallied sharply higher yesterday. The move higher resulted in a clear break of resistance at $1834.0, Sep 3 high. The breach of this hurdle reinforces current bullish conditions and paves the way for further upside. WTI futures gains stalled yesterday and futures traded lower. Recent gains have exposed key resistance and the bull trigger at $85.41, Oct 25 high. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and resume the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• In the FI space, Bund futures traded higher Tuesday to confirm an extension of last week's gains. The outlook remains bullish. The recent breach of resistance at 169.83, Oct 27 high and the break of the 50-day EMA highlights this theme and signals scope for a stronger short-term corrective bounce. Gilt futures maintain a short-term bullish tone despite the pullback from recent highs. Last week's rally reinforced a recent reversal signal - the break and close above 125.27, Oct 14 high confirmed a double bottom pattern on Oct 27.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Resumes Its Downtrend

• RES 4: 1.1821 High Sep 16
• RES 3: 1.17155 / High Sep 22
• RES 2: 1.1660/92 Bear channel top from Jun 1 high / High Oct 28
• RES 1: 1.1514/1608 Low Nov 5 / High Nov 9
• PRICE: 1.1478 @ 05:56 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: 1.1465 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.1423 Low Jul 21 2020
• SUP 3: 1.1375 1.382 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1320 Bear channel base drawn from the Jun 1 high

EURUSD returned lower Wednesday, showing below the 1.1514, Nov 5 low to confirm a resumption of its downtrend. The move lower maintains the downward price sequence within the bear channel drawn from the Jun 1 high. Furthermore, moving average studies remain in a bear mode, reinforcing current conditions. The focus is on 1.1375 next, a Fibonacci projection. 1.1608, Nov 9 high marks a key short-term resistance.

GBPUSD TECHS: Clears Support

• RES 4: 1.3913 High Sep 14 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3835 High Oct 20
• RES 2: 1.3680 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3607 High Nov 9 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: 1.3418 @ 06:11 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: 1.3393 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.3354 Low Dec 23, 2020
• SUP 3: 1.3334 1.00 proj of the Sep 14 - 29 - Oct 20 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.3304 Low Dec 22, 2020

GBPUSD traded sharply lower yesterday. The pair has breached support at 1.3412, Sep 29 low to confirm a resumption of the current bear trend and this paves the way for an extension lower short-term. A doji candle pattern Tuesday highlighted the likelihood of a resumption of weakness following a corrective bounce between Nov 5 - 9. The move lower has opened 1.3354 next. Firm resistance has been defined at 1.3607, Nov 9 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Remains Below Recent Highs

• RES 4: 0.8670 High Jul 20
• RES 3: 0.8658 High Sep 29 and key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8624 High Oct 1
• RES 1: 0.8598 76.4% retracement of the Sep 29 - Oct 26 sell-off
• PRICE: 0.8555 @ 06:15 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: 0.8509 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8463/41 Low Nov 3 / Low Nov 1
• SUP 3: 0.8403 Low Oct 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8356 Low Feb 26, 2020

EURGBP continues to trade below last week's high of 0.8595 on Nov 5. The short-term outlook remains bullish. The recent rally confirmed a breach of the 50-day EMA and the break has improved short-term conditions for bulls, signaling scope for an extension higher. 0.8561, 61.8% of the Sep 29 - Oct 26 sell-off, has been cleared and this opens 0.8598, the 76.4% retracement. Initial firm support is unchanged at 0.8463, Nov 3 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Bullish Engulfing Candle

• RES 4: 115.51 High Mar 10, 2017
• RES 3: 114.99 1.50 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 price swing
• RES 2: 114.70/73 High Oct 20 / High Nov 6, 2017
• RES 1: 114.44 High Nov 1
• PRICE: 113.94 @ 06:22 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: 112.73/42 Low Nov 9 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 112.08 High Sep 30 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 3: 111.51 Low Oct 8
• SUP 4: 110.82/80 Low Oct 4 / High Aug 11

USDJPY worked against the short-term softer tone Wednesday. The strong recovery signals the potential end of the recent corrective pullback and yesterday's candle pattern appears to be a bullish engulfing reversal. If correct, this pattern signals scope for a climb towards key resistance at 114.70, Oct 20 high. A break would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. Key short-term support has been defined at 112.73, Nov 9 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 134.13 High Jun 1 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 133.76 High Jun 10
• RES 2: 132.92/133.48 High Oct 29 / High Oct 20
• RES 1: 131.47 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 130.84 @ 06:26 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: 130.65 Low Nov 10
• SUP 2: 130.05 61.8% retracement of the Sep 22 - Oct 20 rally
• SUP 3: 129.28 Low Oct 11
• SUP 4: 128.94 Low Oct 8

EURJPY maintains a weaker short-term tone and the cross is trading just above recent lows. The cross has recently breached its 50- and 20-day EMAs suggesting scope for a deeper corrective pullback. Support at 130.75, Sep 3 high has been probed and the focus is on 130.05, a Fibonacci retracement. Broader trend signals continue to point north though and the recent sell-off is still considered corrective.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 0.7599 High Jul 6
• RES 3: 0.7549/57 200-dma / 50.0% of the Feb - Aug sell-off
• RES 2: 0.7432/7471 High Nov 9 / High Nov 4
• RES 1: 0.7360 Low Nov 5
• PRICE: 0.7316 @ 06:35 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: 0.7295 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.7261 76.4% retracement of the Sep 29 - Oct 28 rally
• SUP 3: 0.7241 Bull channel base drawn from the Aug 20 low
• SUP 4: 0.7226/7170 Low Oct 6 / Low Sep 29

AUDUSD is trading lower again today as the pair extends the current short-term bear cycle. The continued weakness suggests scope for a deeper pullback and this has opened 0.7261 next, a Fibonacci retracement. A firm support lies just below, at 0.7241, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Aug 20 low. The recent move lower is still considered corrective. Resistance to watch is 0.7432, Nov 9 high. A break would ease bearish pressure.

USDCAD TECHS: Consolidation Mode

• RES 4: 1.2775 High Sep 29
• RES 3: 1.2664 61.8.0% retracement of the Sep 20 - Oct 21 sell-off
• RES 2: 1.2589 50.0% retracement of the Sep 20 - Oct 21 sell-off
• RES 1: 1.2562 High Oct 8
• PRICE: 1.2508 @ 06:54 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: 1.2387 Low Nov 10
• SUP 2: 1.2288 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.2253 Low Jun 23
• SUP 4: 1.2229 76.4% retracement of the Jun - Aug rally

USDCAD is trading slightly higher this morning and maintains the current short-term positive tone. These recent gains however are still considered corrective with moving average studies in a bear mode condition. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on the bear trigger of 1.2288, Oct 21 low where a break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. Next resistance is seen at 1.2562.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z1) Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 172.12 High Sep 14
• RES 3: 171.95 61.8% retracement of the Aug - Nov sell-off
• RES 2: 171.72 High Sep 23
• RES 1: 171.44 High Nov 9
• PRICE: 170.34 @ 05:22 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: 170.06 Low Nov 5
• SUP 2: 168.98 Low Nov 3
• SUP 3: 167.69 Low Nov 1 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 167.52 Low Mar 19 2020 (cont)

Bund futures traded higher Tuesday to confirm an extension of last week's gains. The outlook remains bullish. The recent breach of resistance at 169.83, Oct 27 high and the break of the 50-day EMA highlights this theme and signals scope for a stronger short-term corrective bounce. 171.14, 50.0% of the Aug - Nov sell-off has been breached and attention is on 171.95, the 76.4% level. On the downside, initial support is at 170.06.

BOBL TECHS: (Z1) Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 135.660 High Sep 9
• RES 3: 135.540 High Sep 21 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 135.380 High Sep 23
• RES 1: 135.280 High Nov 10
• PRICE: 134.760 @ 05:20 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: 134.664/320 20-day EMA / Low Nov 3
• SUP 2: 133.900/690 Low Nov 2
• SUP 3: 133.340 Low Mar 19 and key medium-term support (cont)
• SUP 4: 133.308 1.764 proj of the Oct 4 - 13 - 14 price swing

The Bobl futures near-term outlook remains bullish despite yesterday's pullback from a fresh short-term trend high. Attention remains on resistance at 135.20, Sep 17 low, the Oct 4 high plus Friday's high. It has been probed, a clear break would open 135.540, Sep 21 high. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 134.320, Nov 3 low. A break would sour the recent positive tone and signal a possible resumption of the broader downtrend.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z1) Short-Term Needle Points North

• RES 4: 112.415 High Aug 5 (cont) and a key resistance
• RES 3: 112.370 High Aug 20
• RES 2: 112.340 Aug 31 high
• RES 1: 112.330 High Nov 10
• PRICE: 112.265 @ 05:33 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: 112.200/100 50-day EMA / Low Nov 3
• SUP 2: 112.050/111.945 Low Nov 2 / Low Oct 28
• SUP 3: 111.925 1.236 proj of the Oct 14 - 19 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 111.897 1.382 proj of the Oct 14 - 19 - 26 price swing

A sharp rally in Schatz futures last week means the contract has established a corrective bullish short-term cycle and yesterday's fresh high reinforces this theme. Resistance at 112.290, Sep 20 high has been breached and the break paves the way for strength towards 112.340, Aug 31 high. Recent gains are still considered corrective though and the broader trend direction is down. Initial firm support is 112.100.

GILT TECHS: (Z1) Bullish Despite Pullback

• RES 4: 128.18 High Sep 10 and 14
• RES 3: 127.95 76.4% retracement of the Aug - Oct downleg
• RES 2: 127.69 High Sep 21
• RES 1: 127.29 High Nov 9
• PRICE: 126.25 @ Close Nov 10
• SUP 1: 125.93 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 124.79/25 Low Nov 4 / Low Nov 1
• SUP 3: 123.43 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 123.16 Low Feb 27, 2019 (cont)

Gilt futures maintain a short-term bullish tone despite the pullback from recent highs. Last week's rally reinforced a recent reversal signal - the break and close above 125.27, Oct 14 high confirmed a double bottom pattern on Oct 27. With a number of important short-term resistance levels cleared, attention is on 127.69 next, Sep 21 high. Initial key support has been defined at 124.25, Nov 1 low. First support though is at 125.93, the 50-day EMA.

BTP TECHS: (Z1) Bull Theme Intact

• RES 4: 155.14 High Aug 31
• RES 3: 154.64 High Sep 22 / 23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 153.59 High Sep 24
• RES 1: 153.08 High Nov 10
• PRICE: 152.02 @ Close Nov 10
• SUP 1: 151.41/149.89 20-day EMA / Nov 3 low
• SUP 2: 148.14/147.12 Low Nov 2 / Low Nov 1 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 146.65 1.618 proj of the Sep 23 - Oct 6 - 14 price swing
• SUP 4: 146.12 1.764 proj of the Sep 23 - Oct 6 - 14 price swing

BTP futures traded higher again yesterday before facing some resistance. Last week's rally confirmed a short-term bull cycle and this week's breach of 152.54, Oct 14 high reinforces this condition. The break strengthens the short-term case for bulls and opens 153.59 next, Sep 24 high. Initial firm support is seen at 149.89, Nov 3 low. Key support has been defined at 147.12, Nov 1 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (Z1) Correction Shallow So Far

• RES 4: 4448.00 High Jan 2, 2008 (cont)
• RES 3: 4400.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4371.00 1.236 proj of Jul 19-Sep 6-Oct 6 2020 swing (cont)
• RES 1: 4367.00 High Nov 5
• PRICE: 4326.00 @ 05:46 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: 4223.50 High Sep 6 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 4179.60 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4004.00 / 3949.50 Low Oct 12 / Low Oct 6 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: 3902.50 Low Jul 20

EUROSTOXX 50 futures uptrend remains intact and the recent pullback is considered corrective - it appears to be a shallow correction. The recent breach of 4223.00, Sep 6 high and a former bull trigger strengthened the bullish theme. The break confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and attention is on 4371.00 next, a Fibonacci projection. The 50-day EMA, at 4179.60, remains a key support. A break is required to signal a potential top.

E-MINI S&P (Z1): Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 4800.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4783.40 1.764 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - Aug 19 price swing
• RES 2: 4746.68 1.618 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - Aug 19 price swing
• RES 1: 4717.00 1.50 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - Aug 19 price swing
• PRICE: 4648.50 @ 06:59 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: 4585.38 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4543.75 Low Oct 27
• SUP 3: 4501.78/ 4472.00 50-day EMA / High Sep 27
• SUP 4: 4317.25/4260.00 Low Oct 12 / Low Oct 1 and the bear trigger

S&P E-minis maintain a bullish tone and this week's pullback is considered corrective. Another all-time high print was registered Nov 5. Continued gains confirm a resumption of the uptrend and the focus is on 4717.00 next, a Fibonacci projection. Trend signals such as moving average studies remain in a bull mode, reinforcing current conditions and market sentiment. The 50-day EMA at 4501.78 continues to represent a key support handle.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F2) Remains Below Key Resistance

• RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $87.73 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 2: $87.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $85.77 - High Oct 25 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $82.56 @ 06:54 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: $82.08/80.20 - Low Nov 10 / Low Nov 4
• SUP 2: $79.78 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $78.42 - Low Oct 7
• SUP 4: $75.80 - Low Sep 30

Brent futures gains stalled yesterday. Recent gains have exposed key resistance and the bull trigger at $85.77, Oct 25 high. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the underlying uptrend and resume the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This would open $87.73, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at $80.20 Nov 4 low where a break would instead reverse the trend.

WTI TECHS: (Z1) Resistance Emerges

• RES 4: $88.96 - 1.382 proj of the Sep 21 - Oct 6 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: $87.45 - 1.236 proj of the Sep 21 - Oct 6 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: $86.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $84.97/85.41 - High Nov 10 / High Oct 25 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $81.34 @ 07:05 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: $80.81/78.25 - Low Nov 10 / Low Nov 4 and key support
• SUP 2: $77.91- 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $74.67 - Low Oct 7 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: $72.82 - Low Sep 30

WTI futures gains stalled yesterday and futures traded lower. Recent gains have exposed key resistance and the bull trigger at $85.41, Oct 25 high. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and resume the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This would open $87.45, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at $78.25 Nov 4 low. A break would be bearish.

GOLD TECHS: Heading North

• RES 4: $1916.6 - High Jun 1 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $1909.7 - High Jun 3
• RES 2: $1903.8 - High Jun 8
• RES 1: $1868.7/1877.7 - High Nov 10 / High Jun 14
• PRICE: $1853.6 @ 07:10 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: $1822.4/1799.2 - Low Nov 10 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1789.0/1759.0 - 50-day EMA / Low Nov 3 and a key support
• SUP 3: $1746.0 - Low Oct 6
• SUP 4: $1721.7 - Low Sep 29 and the bear trigger

Gold rallied sharply higher yesterday. The move higher resulted in a clear break of resistance at $1834.0, Sep 3 high. The breach of this hurdle reinforces current bullish conditions and paves the way for further upside. Note too that the yellow metal has also breached $1863.3, 76.4% of the Jun - Aug sell-off. The focus is on $1877.7 next, Jun 14 high. Support is seen at f $1822.4, yesterday's low.

SILVER TECHS: Probes Resistance

• RES 4: $26.467 - High Jul 14
• RES 3: $26.002 - High Aug 4 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $25.206 - High Jun 8
• RES 1: $25.128 - High Nov 10
• PRICE: $24.908 @ 07:25 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: $23.762/020 - 50-day EMA / Low Nov 3
• SUP 2: $22.213 - Low Oct 6
• SUP 3: $21.423 - Low Sep 29 and key support
• SUP 4: $20.871 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar '20 - Feb '21 rally

Silver traded higher yesterday. Recent price action has defined key short-term directional triggers at; $23.020, Nov 3 low and $24.828, Oct 22 high. Resistance was probed yesterday, a clear breach would confirm a resumption of the underlying uptrend. This would open $25.206 initially, Jun 8 high. For bears, weakness through $23.020 would instead expose $22.213, Oct 6 low.