MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EURUSD Parity in Striking Distance

Price Signal Summary – EURUSD Parity in Striking Distance

• S&P E-Minis traded higher last week and price remains above recent lows. The outlook is unchanged and bearish, following the reversal from 3950.00, the Jun 28 high. The next support lies at 3735.00, the Jun 23 low. EUROSTOXX 50 futures recovered last week from 3343.00, Jul 5 low. Short-term gains are still considered corrective and the primary trend direction remains down.
• EURUSD started the week on a soft note, trading lower Monday and resuming its downtrend. Last week’s breach of 1.0350, May 13 low, confirmed an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. USDJPY remains bullish. The pair traded higher Monday and breached resistance at 137.00, the Jun 29 high. The break confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and signals scope for an extension. AUDUSD started this week on a soft note, trading to a fresh trend low. The strong sell-off Monday resulted in a break of support at 0.6762, the Jul 5 / 6 low and 0.6759, 50.0% of the Mar ‘20 - Feb ‘ 21 bull cycle.
• Gold traded sharply lower last week and in the process confirmed a breach of key short-term support and the bear trigger at $1787.00, May 16 low. The break marks a resumption of the broader downtrend and sets the scene for weakness towards $1706.8 next, a Fibonacci projection. A sharp sell-off in WTI futures last week strengthened bearish conditions and signals scope for a continuation lower. The move lower resulted in a break of support at $101.53, Jun 22 low and a short-term bear trigger.
• Bund futures remain below recent highs but did trade higher Monday. A short-term bullish tone remains intact, following recent gains that resulted in a breach of resistance at 149.00. The short-term outlook in Gilt futures remains bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Recent gains confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle that started Jun 16 - price has cleared resistance at 114.55, the Jun 24 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Approaching Parity And The Channel Base

• RES 4: 1.0615 High Jun 27 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.0538 Bull channel resistance drawn from the Feb 10 high
• RES 2: 1.0359/0378 Low Jun 15 / 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.0191 High Jul 8
• PRICE: 1.0016 @ 06:00 BST Jul 12
• SUP 1: 1.0000 Bear channel base and psychological support
• SUP 2: 0.9944 1.618 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.9883 1.764 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.9785 2.00 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing

EURUSD started the week on a soft note, trading lower Monday and resuming its downtrend. Last week’s breach of 1.0350, May 13 low, confirmed an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on parity, the base of a channel drawn from the Feb 10 high and a psychological level. A break would strengthen bearish conditions and open 0.9944. Firm resistance is at 1.0378, the 20-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Resumes Its Downtrend

• RES 4: 1.2406 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2332 High Jun 27
• RES 2: 1.2213 High Jun 29
• RES 1: 1.2056/2141 High Jul 8 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.1859 @ 06:17 BST Jul 12
• SUP 1: 1.1846 0.764 proj of the May 27 - Jun 14 - 16 price swing
• SUP 2: 1.1795 0.764 proj of the Mar 23 - May 13 - 27 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1777 Low Mar 26 2020
• SUP 4: 1.1673 1.00 proj of the May 27 - Jun 14 - 16 price swing

Trend conditions in GBPUSD remain bearish. The pair is trading at a fresh trend low and has resumed its downtrend. This marks an extension of last week’s move lower that resulted in a break of a bear trigger at 1.1934, Jun 14 low. The focus is on 1.1795 next, a Fibonacci projection. Weakness through here would open the Mar 26 2020 lows of 1.1777. Firm resistance is at 1.2141, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 0.8762 1.00 proj of the Apr 14 - May 12 - 17 price swing
• RES 3: 0.8721 High May 26 2021 and Jun 15 / bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8627/79 High Jul 4 / High Jul 1
• RES 1: 0.8526 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8444 @ 06:26 BST Jul 12
• SUP 1: 0.8433 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.8393 Low May 17 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.8367 Low May 2
• SUP 4: 0.8313 Low Apr 22

EURGBP remains vulnerable. The cross traded sharply lower on Jul 7 and cleared key support at the 50-day EMA. The move lower reverses a recent bullish theme and short-term bearish conditions suggest scope for a deeper retracement. Potential is seen for a move towards support at 0.8393, the May 17 low. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 0.8526, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA is required to ease the current bearish threat.

USDJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 140.00 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 139.48 1.00 proj of the Jun 16 - 22 - 23
• RES 2: 138.56 1.618 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 137.75/138.00 High Jul 8 / Round number resistance
• PRICE: 137.37 @ 06:31 BST Jul 12
• SUP 1: 135.21/134.27 20-day EMA / Low Jun 23
• SUP 2: 133.10 Bull channel base from the Mar 4 low
• SUP 3: 131.50 Low Jun 16 and a key support
• SUP 4: 130.00 Round number support

USDJPY remains bullish. The pair traded higher Monday and breached resistance at 137.00, the Jun 29 high. The break confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and signals scope for an extension. The fresh cycle high also highlights the fact that corrections remain shallow, reinforcing underlying bullish conditions. The focus is on the 138.00 handle and 138.56 further out, a Fibonacci projection. Firm short-term support lies at 134.27, the Jun 23 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 144.28 High Jun 28 and key resistance
• RES 3: 142.37 High Jul 5
• RES 2: 140.31 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 139.50 High Jul 6
• PRICE: 137.69 @ 06:49 BST Jul 12
• SUP 1: 136.87 Low Jul 8
• SUP 2: 136.25 Low May 30
• SUP 3: 136.10 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 135.40 76.4% retracement of the May 12 - Jun 28 climb

EURJPY remains vulnerable following the recent reversal from 144.28, the Jun 28 high. The sell-off resulted in a break below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and price has traded below support at 137.85. A clear breach of this level would strengthen bearish conditions and open 136.25, the May 30 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 140.31, the 20-day EMA ahead of 142.37, the July 5 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Price Action

• RES 4: 0.7202 High Jun 9
• RES 3: 0.7138 High Jun 10
• RES 2: 0.0.7006/69 50-day EMA / High Jun 16 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6894/6964 20-day EMA / High Jun 28
• PRICE: 0.6723 @ 06:55 BST Jul 12
• SUP 1: 0.6685 High Mar 9 2020
• SUP 2: 0.6647 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.6588 Low May 28 2020
• SUP 4: 0.6538 Low May 26 2020

AUDUSD started this week on a soft note, trading to a fresh trend low. The strong sell-off Monday resulted in a break of support at 0.6762, the Jul 5 / 6 low and 0.6759, 50.0% of the Mar ‘20 - Feb ‘ 21 bull cycle. The break lower confirms a resumption of the downtrend and sets the scene for a move towards 0.6685, the Mar 9 2020 high. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 0.6894, the 20-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Still Looking For Gains

• RES 4: 1.3300 High Nov 4 2020
• RES 3: 1.3192 1.00 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 8 price swing
• RES 2: 1.3113 High Nov 23 2020
• RES 1: 1.3084 High Jul 5 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3034 @ 07:00 BST Jul 12
• SUP 1: 1.2936 Low Jul 8
• SUP 2: 1.2918 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2846/19 50-day EMA / Low Jun 28 and key support
• SUP 4: 1.2763 Low Jun 13

USDCAD trend conditions remain bullish and the recent pullback is considered corrective. The pair rallied sharply higher on Jul 5, reinforcing short-term bullish conditions. Key support around the 50-day EMA has remained intact - the average intersects at 1.2846. Last week’s climb resulted in a print above resistance at 1.3079, May 17 high and a bull trigger. A clear break would strengthen bullish conditions and open 1.3113, Nov 23 ‘20 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U2) Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 155.01 1.236 projection of the Jun 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 154.65 High May 27
• RES 2: 153.36 High May 31
• RES 1: 152.92 High Jul 6 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 151.49 @ 05:04 BST Jul 12
• SUP 1: 149.05/146.50 20-day EMA / Low Jun 30
• SUP 2: 144.72 Low Jun 28 and a key support
• SUP 3: 142.56 Low Jun 17
• SUP 4: 140.67 Low Jun 16 and bear trigger

Bund futures remain below recent highs but did trade higher Monday. A short-term bullish tone remains intact, following recent gains that resulted in a breach of resistance at 149.00. This established a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart. The contract has also cleared the 50-day EMA. A resumption of gains would open 153.36, May 31 high. On the downside, key short-term support is unchanged at 144.72, the Jun 28 low.

BOBL TECHS: (U2) Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 127.160 High May 12
• RES 3: 126.879 1.236 projection of the Jun 16 -24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 126.710 High May 26
• RES 1: 126.560 High Jul 6 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 125.690 @ 05:09 BST Jul 12
• SUP 1: 124.222 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 123.010 Low Jun 30
• SUP 3: 121.910 Low Jun 28 and a key near-term support
• SUP 4: 120.990 Low Jun 21

A bull cycle in Bobl futures remains in play and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The recent breach of resistance at 123.960, the Jun 24 high, confirmed a resumption of the current bullish corrective cycle and price has established a positive sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Scope is seen for a climb towards 126.710, the May 26 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 121.190, Jun 28 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U2) Trend Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 110.412 1.382 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 110.256 1.382 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 110.063 1.236 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 110.005 High Jul 6 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 109.675 @ 05:17 BST Jul 12
• SUP 1: 109.147 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 108.760/425 Low Jun 30 / Low Jun 28 and a key support
• SUP 3: 108.025 Low Jun 21
• SUP 4: 107.705 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger

The short-term bullish outlook in Schatz futures remains intact and pullbacks are considered corrective. Resistance at 109.030, Jun 24 high, has recently been cleared. This marks an extension of a corrective cycle and price has established a bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Scope is seen for a climb towards 110.063, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 108.425, the Jun 28 low.

GILT TECHS: (U2) Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 118.63 High May 24
• RES 3: 118.16 1.382 proj of the Jun 16 - 24- 29 price swing
• RES 2: 117.48 1.236 proj of the Jun 16 - 24- 29 price swing
• RES 1: 115.65/117.09 High Jul 7 / High Jul 6 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 115.06 @ Close Jul 11
• SUP 1: 114.08/113.03 Low Jul 8 / Low Jun 30
• SUP 2: 111.72 Low Jun 29 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 110.57 Low Jun 21
• SUP 4: 109.89 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger

The short-term outlook in Gilt futures remains bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Recent gains confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle that started Jun 16 - price has cleared resistance at 114.55, the Jun 24 high. A resumption of gains would open 117.48 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 111.72, the Jun 29 low.

BTP TECHS: (U2) Consolidating

• RES 4: 130.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 129.00 High May 12
• RES 2: 127.79 High May 26
• RES 1: 126.41 High Jul 1 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 124.57 @ Close Jul 11
• SUP 1: 122.91/119.81 20-day EMA / Low Jun 28 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: 118.60 Low Jun 22
• SUP 3: 115.72 Low Jun 16
• SUP 4: 113.78 Low Jun 14 and the bear trigger

BTP futures are in consolidation mode. The short-term trend condition remains bullish. Recent gains resulted in a breach of resistance at 122.80, the Jun 24 high. The break suggests potential for a stronger short-term correction and attention is on 127.79, the May 26 high. Initial key support to watch is 119.81, the Jun 28 low. A break of this level would instead signal a potential short-term top and the end of the current corrective cycle.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U2) Primary Trend Direction Remains Down

• RES 4: 3774.00 High Jun 9
• RES 3: 3689.00 High Jun 10
• RES 2: 3584.00 High Jun 27 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 3504.00/3574.70 High Jul 8 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 3436.00 @ 05:25 BST Jul 12
• SUP 1: 3343.00 Low Jul 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3321.30 50.0% retracement the major 2020 - 2021 upleg
• SUP 3: 3300.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 3241.70 1.382 proj of the Mar 29 - May 10 - Jun 6 price swing

EUROSTOXX 50 futures recovered last week from 3343.00, Jul 5 low. Short-term gains are still considered corrective and the primary trend direction remains down. Last week’s breach of support at 3384.00, Jun 16 low, reinforces bearish conditions and highlights a resumption of the broader downtrend, opening 3321.30, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term resistance is at 3584.00, the Jun 27 high. A break would alter the picture.

E-MINI S&P (U2): Key Resistance Still Intact

• RES 4: 4308.50 High Apr 28
• RES 3: 4204.75 High May 31 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 3980.07 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 3950.00 High Jun 27
• PRICE: 3835.00 @ 06:57 BST Jul 12
• SUP 1: 3735.00/3639.00 Low Jun 23 / 17 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3578.27 0.618 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 3500.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 3384.75 0.764 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing

S&P E-Minis traded higher last week and price remains above recent lows. The outlook is unchanged and bearish, following the reversal from 3950.00, the Jun 28 high. The next support lies at 3735.00, the Jun 23 low. A breach of this level would expose key support at 3639.00, the Jun 17 low. On the upside, clearance of resistance at 3950.00 is required to reinstate a bullish theme. This would open the 50-day EMA, currently at 3980.07.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U2) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: $118.12 - High Jun 17
• RES 3: $116.24 - High Jun 29 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $108.94/114.75 - 50-day EMA / High Jul 5
• RES 1: $107.70 High Jul 8
• PRICE: $105.25 @ 07:01 BST Jul 12
• SUP 1: $103.64/98.50 - Low Jul 11 / Low Jul 6 / 7 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: $97.25 - Low Apr 25
• SUP 3: $95.92 - Low Apr 11
• SUP 4: $95.13 - Low Mar 29

Brent futures remain vulnerable despite last week’s gains. Recent weakness resulted in a break of support at $104.35, the Jun 22 low and a short-term bear trigger. This has strengthened bearish conditions and established a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs on the daily chart. The focus is on $97.25 next, the Apr 25 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $116.24, the Jun 29 high.

WTI TECHS: (Q2) Bear Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: $116.58 - High Jun 17
• RES 3: $114.05 - High Jun 29 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 2: $106.54/111.45 - 50-day EMA / High Jul 5
• RES 1: $105.24 - High Jul 8
• PRICE: $102.13 @ 07:11 BST Jul 12
• SUP 1: $95.10 - Low Jul 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $93.45 - Low Apr 25
• SUP 3: $90.13 - 1.236 proj of the Jun 14 - 22 - 29 price swing
• SUP 4: $86.81 - Low Mar 15

A sharp sell-off in WTI futures last week strengthened bearish conditions and signals scope for a continuation lower. The move lower resulted in a break of support at $101.53, Jun 22 low and a short-term bear trigger. This signals scope for weakness towards $93.45 next, the Apr 25 low and beyond. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at $114.05, the Jun 29 high. Short-term gains are considered corrective.

GOLD TECHS: Southbound

• RES 4: $1878.4 - High Jun 13
• RES 3: $1846.8 - Trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 8 high
• RES 2: $1794.8/30.0 - 20-day EMA / 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $1787.0 - Low May 16 and recent breakout level
• PRICE: $1729.5 @ 07:19 BST Jul 12
• SUP 1: $1723.3/21.7 - Intraday low / Low Sep 29 2021
• SUP 2: $1706.8 - 1.618 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 3: $1690.6 - Low Aug 9 2021
• SUP 4: $1680.5 - 1.764 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing

Gold traded sharply lower last week and in the process confirmed a breach of key short-term support and the bear trigger at $1787.00, May 16 low. The break marks a resumption of the broader downtrend and sets the scene for weakness towards $1706.8 next, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bear mode condition and today’s fresh trend low, reinforces the current trend direction. Initial resistance is at $1787.0.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Trend Conditions

• RES 4: $21.967 - High Jun 17
• RES 3: $21.400 - 50-day EMA
• RES 2: $20.464 - Low May 13 and recent breakout level
• RES 1: $20.350 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $19.034 @ 08:04 BST Jul 12
• SUP 1: $18.874 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $18.693 - 61.8% retracement of Mar ‘20 - Feb ‘21 bull cycle
• SUP 3: $18.447 - 2.618 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 4: $18.250 - Low Jul 8 2020

The Silver outlook remains bearish following a resumption of the downtrend last week. This marks an extension of the current bear cycle that started Jun 6 and an extension of the broader downtrend that has been in place since early February 2021. The metal has also cleared the $20.00 handle and sights are on $18.693 next, a Fibonacci retracement. The 20-day EMA, at $20.350 marks a key short-term resistance.