MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EURUSD Trend Needle Points South

Price Signal Summary - EURUSD bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• In the equity space, the uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact. Resistance at 4841.50, the Dec 28 high, has recently been cleared, confirming an extension of the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 4952.45 next, the 1.382 projection of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing. Initial support lies at 4522.80, the 20-day EMA. EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded sharply higher last week, resulting in a move through key resistance at 4634.00, the Dec 14 high. The break confirms a resumption of the medium-term uptrend and opens 4662.90 next, the 1.236 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing, ahead of the 4700.00 handle. Initial support lies at 4522.80, the 20-day EMA.
• In FX, EURUSD found resistance last week at 1.0932 (Jan 24 high) and a bearish theme dominates for now. 1.0822, the Jan 23 low, has been pierced. A clear break of it would resume the current downtrend. Sights are on 1.0793, 50.0% of the Oct - Dec bull leg. On the upside, clearance of 1.0932 would instead signal scope for a stronger recovery and expose key short-term resistance at 1.0998, the Jan 5 high. GBPUSD is in consolidation mode. Key resistance is at 1.2827, the Dec 28 high, and key support lies at 1.2597, the Jan 17 low. Both price points represent important directional triggers. A break of 1.2827 would resume the uptrend and open 1.2881, 76.4% of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg. For bears, clearance of 1.2597 would highlight a S/T reversal and open 1.2500, the Dec 13 low. The USDJPY trend outlook remains bullish and the pair is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Moving average studies have crossed and are in a bull-mode set-up. This reinforces the current trend condition. Sights are on 149.16 next, 76.4% of the Nov 13 - Dec 28 bull leg. Initial firm support to watch lies at 146.08, the 50-day EMA.
• On the commodity front, Gold continues to trade above the Jan 17 low of $2001.9. The recent print below the 50-day EMA and the break of $2013.4, the Jan 11 low, has strengthened a bearish threat and a resumption of weakness would open a key level at $1973.2, the Dec 13 low. For bulls, clearance of 2062.3, the Jan 12 high, is required to signal a reversal. In the oil space, WTI futures traded higher last week. The contract has breached resistance at $76.31, the Dec 26 high. The clear break of this hurdle highlights a stronger short-term bullish condition. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards $79.56, the Nov 30 high. On the downside, initial key support lies at $74.55, the 50-day EMA. A break would be a bearish development.
• In the FI space, Bund futures remain in a downtrend and short-term gains are considered corrective. Key support at the Dec 8 low of 134.37, has recently been cleared and this opens 133.42, the Dec 4 low. Initial resistance is at 135.02, the Jan 26 high and just above the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced. A clear break of this hurdle would ease bearish pressure and open 136.16 the Jan 5 / 8 high. The trend needle in Gilt futures continues to point south and last week’s bearish extension reinforces current conditions. Short-term gains are considered corrective. The contract recently cleared support at 99.60, the Jan 5 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend, signalling scope for a continuation lower towards 97.39, the Dec 11 low. Firm resistance to watch is 99.43, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of the average would ease bearish pressure and open 100.00.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 1.1139 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.1077 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Jan 5 sell-off
• RES 2: 1.1046 High Jan 2
• RES 1: 1.0932/98 High Jan 24 / 5 and a reversal trigger
• PRICE: 1.0842 @ 05:12 GMT Jan 29
• SUP 1: 1.0813 Low Jan 26
• SUP 2: 1.0793 50.0% retracement of the Oct - Dec bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.0724 Low Dec 8
• SUP 4: 1.0712 61.8% retracement of the Oct - Dec bull leg

EURUSD found resistance last week at 1.0932 (Jan 24 high) and a bearish theme dominates for now. 1.0822, the Jan 23 low, has been pierced. A clear break of this support would resume the current downtrend. Sights are on 1.0793, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, clearance of 1.0932 would instead signal scope for a stronger recovery and expose key short-term resistance at 1.0998, the Jan 5 high and a reversal trigger.

GBPUSD TECHS: Directional Parameters Defined

• RES 4: 1.2996 High Jul 27
• RES 3: 1.2881 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.2827 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2775 High Jan 24
• PRICE: 1.2702 @ 05:28 GMT Jan 29
• SUP 1: 1.2639/2597 50-day EMA / Low Jan 17 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: 1.2525 38.2% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 28 bull phase
• SUP 3: 1.2500 Low Dec 13
• SUP 4: 1.2432 50.0% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 28 bull phase

GBPUSD is in consolidation mode and continues to trade inside its range. Key resistance is at 1.2827, the Dec 28 high, and key support lies at 1.2597, the Jan 17 low. Both price points represent important directional triggers. A break of 1.2827 would resume the uptrend and open 1.2881, a Fibonacci retracement. For bears, clearance of 1.2597 would highlight a S/T reversal and signal scope for weakness towards the 1.2500 handle, the Dec 13 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 0.8768 High Nov 20
• RES 3: 0.8715 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8676 High Jan 3
• RES 1: 0.8586/8616 20- and 50-day EMA values
• PRICE: 0.8535 @ 05:41 GMT Jan 29
• SUP 1: 0.8521 Low Jan 25
• SUP 2: 0.8493 Low Aug 23 2023 and a key medium-term support
• SUP 3: 0.8487 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 0.8454 61.8% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase

The trend needle in EURGBP continues to point south. Last week's move lower resulted in a break of support at 0.8549, the Dec 11 low, strengthening the current bearish condition. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a clear downtrend. Sights are on 0.8493, the Aug 23 ‘23 low and a key support. The 50-day EMA, at 0.8616, is the initial firm resistance to watch. First resistance is at 0.8586, the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Condition Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 150.78 High Nov 17
• RES 3: 149.75 High Nov 22
• RES 2: 149.16 76.4% retracement of the Nov 13 - Dec 28 bull leg
• RES 1: 148.80 High Jan 19
• PRICE: 148.06 @ 06:06 GMT Jan 29
• SUP 1: 146.66 Low Jan 24
• SUP 2: 146.08 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 144.36 Low Jan 12 and key S/T support
• SUP 4: 143.42 Low Jan 9

The USDJPY trend outlook remains bullish and the pair is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Moving average studies have crossed and are in a bull-mode set-up. This reinforces the current trend condition. Sights are on 149.16 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support has been defined at 144.36, the Jan 12 low. A break of this level is required to signal a top. Initial firm support to watch lies at 146.08, the 50-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 164.30 High Nov 16 and key resistance
• RES 3: 163.72 High Nov 27
• RES 2: 162.25 High Nov 29
• RES 1: 161.86 High Jan 19 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 160.43 @ 06:15 GMT Jan 29
• SUP 1: 159.71 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 158.55 Low Jan 12 and a key short-term support
• SUP 3: 157.21 Low Jan 9
• SUP 4: 156.08 Low Jan 4

The EURJPY trend condition remains bullish and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. The recent breach of resistance at 160.18, the Jan 11 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. Note that 161.69, 76.4% of the Nov 16 - Dec 7 bear leg, has been pierced. A clear break of this retracement point would open 162.25, the Nov 29 high. Initial firm support is at 158.55, the Jan 12 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bear Flag Formation

• RES 4: 0.6900 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.6729/71 High Jan 12 / 3
• RES 1: 0.6627 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6592 @ 06:33 GMT Jan 29
• SUP 1: 0.6526/25 Low Dec 7 and key support / Low Jan 17
• SUP 2: 0.6500 61.8% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg
• SUP 3: 0.6453 Low Nov 17
• SUP 4: 0.6412 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg

AUDUSD remains in consolidation mode. From a trend perspective, a bearish theme dominates for now and the latest pause appears to be a flag formation - a bearish continuation pattern. A resumption of weakness would open 0.6500, a Fibonacci retracement and the next objective. Clearance of this level would further strengthen the current bearish theme. Initial resistance is at 0.6627, the 50-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Sights Are On The Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 1.3661 High Nov 27
• RES 3: 1.3623 61.8% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.3608 High Dec 13
• RES 1: 1.3542 High Jan 17 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3443 @ 06:49 GMT Jan 29
• SUP 1: 1.3415 Low Jan 22
• SUP 2: 1.3343 Low Jan 12
• SUP 3: 1.3288/3177 Low Jan 5 / Low Dec 27
• SUP 4: 1.3093 Low Jul 14 and key support

USDCAD maintains a firmer tone and the latest recovery reinforces a bullish theme. The latest short-term pullback is - for now - considered corrective. Sights are on 1.3542, the Jan 17 high and bull trigger. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the bull cycle that started Dec 27 and open 1.3623, 61.8% of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg. Initial support is 1.3415, the Jan 22 / 26 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H4) Downtrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 139.39 3.764 proj of the Nov of the 13 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: 137.96/138.84 High Jan 4 / High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 136.16 High Jan 5 / 8
• RES 1: 135.02 High Jan 26
• PRICE: 134.52 @ 04:49 GMT Jan 29
• SUP 1: 133.55 Low Jan 25
• SUP 2: 133.42 Low Dec 4
• SUP 3: 132.89 50.0% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 27 bull phase
• SUP 4: 132.29 Low Nov 30

Bund futures remain in a downtrend and short-term gains are considered corrective. The recent move lower has strengthened the current bear trend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Key support at the Dec 8 low of 134.37, has recently been cleared and this opens 133.42, the Dec 4 low. Initial resistance is at 135.02, the Jan 26 high and just above the 20-day EMA. A clear break of 135.02 would ease bearish pressure.

BOBL TECHS: (H4) Pierces Resistance Around The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 119.640 High Jan 4
• RES 3: 119.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 118.590 High Jan 12 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 118.130 High Jan 26
• PRICE: 117.900 @ 05:03 GMT Jan 29
• SUP 1: 117.280 Low Jan 25
• SUP 2: 117.060 Low Dec 1
• SUP 3: 117.000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 116.830 Low Nov 29

A bearish cycle in Bobl futures remains intact and the latest recovery appears to be a correction - for now. The recent breach of support at 117.800, the Dec 8 low, highlights potential for a continuation lower. This has exposed 117.060, the Dec 1 low. On the upside, the contract has pierced resistance at the 20-day EMA at 117.983. A continuation higher would open firm resistance at 118.590, the Jan 12 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H4) Bounce Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 106.640 High Dec 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 106.360 Low Jan 3
• RES 2: 106.270 High Jan 5 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 106.200 50.0% retracement of the Dec 29 - Jan 25 bear leg
• PRICE: 106.035 @ 05:16 GMT Jan 29
• SUP 1: 105.760 Low Jan 25
• SUP 2: 105.730 Low Nov 30
• SUP 3: 105.660 High Nov 17
• SUP 4: 105.470 Low Nov 28

The downtrend in Schatz futures remains intact and last Thursday’s recovery appears - for now - to be a correction. A key short-term support at 105.955, the Dec 13 low, has recently been cleared, strengthening a bearish theme. Sights are on 105.730 next, the Nov 30 low. Initial key resistance is 106.270, the Jan 5 / 12 high. A clear breach of this hurdle would ease bearish pressure and signal a reversal. First resistance is 106.200, a Fibonacci retracement.

GILT TECHS: (H4) Bear Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 101.98 High Jan 3
• RES 3: 100.81 High Jan 5
• RES 2: 100.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 99.43 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 98.34 @ Close Jan 26
• SUP 1: 97.57 Low Jan 25
• SUP 2: 97.39 Low Dec 11 and a key support
• SUP 3: 96.67 Low Dec 5
• SUP 4: 96.10 Low Nov 30

The trend needle in Gilt futures continues to point south and last week’s bearish extension reinforces current conditions. The contract recently cleared support at 99.60, the Jan 5 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started Dec 27, signalling scope for a continuation lower towards 97.39, the Dec 11 low. Firm resistance to watch is 99.43, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of the average would ease bearish pressure.

BTP TECHS: (H4) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 122.63 High Dec 7 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 122.18 3.00 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 121.43 2.764 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 119.23/77 High Jan 12 and a key S/T resistance / High Jan 4
• PRICE: 118.07 @ Close Jan 26
• SUP 1: 116.98 Low Jan 25
• SUP 2: 116.77 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 115.18 Low Dec 4
• SUP 4: 114.10 50.0% retracement of the Oct 19 - Dec 27 bull cycle

A bearish corrective cycle in BTP futures remains in play and short-term gains are considered corrective. Price has recently traded through the 20-day EMA and support at 117.24, the Jan 5 low, has been breached. This opens the 50-day EMA at 116.77 - the next key support. Initial firm resistance is at 119.23, the Jan 12 high. A reversal higher and a break of this level would highlight a base and a potential resumption of the primary uptrend.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H4) Bear Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 114-06+ 2.00 proj of the Oct 19 - Nov 3 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: 114-00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 113-12 High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 111-20/112-26+ 20-day EMA / High Jan 12
• PRICE: 111-13+ @ 11:05 GMT Jan 26
• SUP 1: 110-26 Low Jan 19
• SUP 2: 110-16 Low Dec 13
• SUP 3: 109-31+ Low Dec 11 and a key short-term support
• SUP 4: 109-17 50.0% of the Oct 19 - Dec 27 bull phase

The trend needle in Treasuries continues to point south despite the latest bounce, with sights on 110-26, the Jan 19 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the current bear cycle and highlight a clear break of the 50-day EMA, at 111-03+. This would set the scene for a move towards 110-16, the Dec 13 low. Firm resistance is 112-26+, the Jan 12 high. Initial resistance is at 111-20, the 20-day EMA.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H4) Heading North

• RES 4: 4725.50 1.50 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 4700.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4662.90 1.236 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 4660.00 High Jan 26
• PRICE: 4545 00 @ 05:46 GMT Jan 29
• SUP 1: 4522.80 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4402.00 Low Jan 17 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 4370.00 Low Nov 28
• SUP 4: 4334.00 50.0% retracement of the Oct 27 - Dec 14 bull leg

Eurostoxx 50 futures traded sharply higher last week. This resulted in a move through key resistance at 4634.00, the Dec 14 high. The break of this hurdle confirms a resumption of the medium-term uptrend and opens 4662.90 next, a Fibonacci projection, ahead of the 4700.00 handle. Initial support lies at 4522.80, the 20-day EMA. Key trend support has been defined at 4402.00, the Jan 17 low.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (H4) Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 5000.00 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 4982.62 1.50 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 4952.45 1.382 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: 4934.25 High Jan 26
• PRICE: 4914.50 @ 06:32 GMT Jan 29
• SUP 1: 4832.56/4736.35 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 4702.00 Low Jan 5
• SUP 3: 4594.00 Low Nov 30
• SUP 4: 4550.75 Low Nov 16

The uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and last week’s move higher reinforces current conditions. Resistance at 4841.50, the Dec 28 high, has recently been cleared, confirming an extension of the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode condition, highlighting positive market sentiment. Sights are on 4952.45 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key support lies at 4736.35, the 50-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (H4) Clears Resistance

• RES 4: $89.99 - High Oct 20
• RES 3: $87.78 - High Oct 27
• RES 2: $86.64 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep 15 - Dec 13 bear cycle
• RES 1: $84.80 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $83.79 @ 07:00 GMT Jan 29
• SUP 1: $79.46 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $76.50 - Low Jan 17
• SUP 3: $74.79 - Low Jan 03
• SUP 4: $72.67/71.21 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger / Low Jun 23

Brent futures traded higher last week, extending the bull cycle that resulted in a break of resistance at $81.45, the Dec 26 high. The breach undermines the recent bearish theme and highlights a stronger bullish condition. Today’s early gains have resulted in a print above $84.22, the Nov 30 high and the next key hurdle for bulls. A clear break would open $86.64, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial support to watch lies at $79.46, the 50-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (H4) Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: $86.68 - High Sep 19 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $85.71 - High Oct 20
• RES 2: $82.34 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep 19 - Dec 13 bear cycle
• RES 1: $79.56 - High Nov 30 and a key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $78.17 @ 07:12 GMT Jan 29
• SUP 1: $74.55/70.62 - 50-day EMA / Low Jan 17
• SUP 2: $69.56 - Low Jan 3
• SUP 3: $68.28 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $65.63 - Low Jun 12

WTI futures traded higher last week. The contract has breached resistance at $76.31, the Dec 26 high. The clear break of this hurdle undermines the recent bearish theme and highlights a stronger short-term bullish condition. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards $79.56, the Nov 30 high. On the downside, initial key support lies at $74.55, the 50-day EMA. A break would be a bearish development.

GOLD TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: $2135.4 - High Dec 4 and all-time high
• RES 3: $2097.1 - 76.4% retracement of the Dec 4 - 13 bear leg
• RES 2: $2062.3/2088.5 - High Jan 12 / High Dec 28
• RES 1: $2039.4 - High Jan 19
• PRICE: $2031.0 @ 07:14 GMT Jan 29
• SUP 1: $2001.9 - Low Jan 17
• SUP 2: $1973.2 - Low Dec 13 and key support
• SUP 3: $1931.7 - Low Nov 13
• SUP 4: $1908.3 - Low Oct 16

Gold remains in consolidation mode and continues to trade above the Jan 17 low of $2001.9. The recent print below the 50-day EMA and the break of support at $2013.4, the Jan 11 low, has strengthened a bearish threat and a resumption of weakness would open a key level at $1973.2, the Dec 13 low. For bulls, clearance of 2062.3, the Jan 12 high, is required to signal a reversal. This would expose $2088.5, the Dec 28 high.

SILVER TECHS: Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: $26.135 - High May 5 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $25.761 - High Dec 4 and key resistance
• RES 2: $24.606/994 - High Dec 22 / 76.4% of Dec 4 - 13 bear leg
• RES 1: $23.534 - High Jan 12
• PRICE: $22.996 @ 07:26 GMT Jan 29
• SUP 1: $21.883 - Low Nov 13 and a key support
• SUP 2: $20.689 - Low Oct 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 2023

A bearish theme in Silver remains intact and the latest recovery appears to be a correction - for now. The recent breach of support at $22.510, the Dec 13 low, signals scope for a move to $21.883, the Nov 13 low. A break of this support would further strengthen the bearish theme. On the upside, key short-term resistance is at $24.606, Dec 22 high. A move above this hurdle would reinstate a bullish theme. First resistance is $23.534, the Jan 12 high.