MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Firmer Short-Term Tone for Gold

Price Signal Summary - Firmer Short-Term Tone for Gold

• S&P E-Minis continue to above recent lows, but remain vulnerable. This follows the reversal from 4095.00 on May 18. The pullback has left key resistance at 4099.00 intact, May 9 high. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain in consolidation mode. The primary trend direction is down but a corrective cycle is still in play, following the recovery from 3466.00, May 10 low.
• EURUSD faced some resistance Wednesday. A positive short-term theme remains intact. The pair has this week cleared the 20-day EMA and breached a key resistance at 1.0642, the May 5 high. USDJPY traded lower Tuesday and breached support at 126.95, Apr 27 low. This level represented an important short-term pivot support and the break suggests scope for a continuation lower. AUDUSD is still trading closer to its recent highs and maintains a firmer short-term tone. Resistance at 0.7054, May 11 high, has been cleared. A continuation higher would strengthen the current bull cycle and open the 50-day EMA at 0.7172.
• Gold maintains a firmer short-term tone and is trading closer to its recent highs, despite the latest minor pullback. The yellow metal has this week traded above resistance at $1859.1, the 20-day EMA. WTI futures continue to trade closer to recent highs and maintain a bullish S/T tone. Price has recently breached resistance at $109.77, May 5 high and this improved the outlook for bulls.
• Bund futures are unchanged and continue to consolidate plus trade below recent highs. The trend direction remains down. The primary trend direction in Gilt futures remains down. The pullback from recent highs just above the 50-day EMA is a bearish development.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Short-Term Bull Cycle Intact

• RES 4: 1.0936 High Apr 21
• RES 3: 1.0831 Bear channel resistance drawn from the Feb 10 high
• RES 2: 1.0800 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 1.0758 Low Apr 14 and a recent breakout level
• PRICE: 1.0682 @ 06:12 BST May 26
• SUP 1: 1.0533 Low May 20
• SUP 2: 1.0461/350 Low May 18 and19 / Low May 13 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0341 Low Jan 3 2017 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0333 1.236 proj of the Feb 10 - Mar 7 - 31 price swing

EURUSD faced some resistance Wednesday. A positive short-term theme remains intact. The pair has this week cleared the 20-day EMA and breached a key resistance at 1.0642, the May 5 high. This strengthens the current bull cycle that began on May 13. Note that the latest recovery also started from the base of a bear channel, drawn from the Feb 10 high. The channel top intersects at 1.0831. Initial support is at 1.0533, May 20 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Maintains A Firmer Tone

• RES 4: 1.2800 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 1.2772 High Apr 26
• RES 2: 1.2736 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.2638 High May 4 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 1.2563 @ 06:19 BST May 26
• SUP 1: 1.2438 Low May 20
• SUP 2: 1.2317/2156 Low May 17 / Low May 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.2081 76.4% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Jun ‘21 uptrend
• SUP 4: 1.2000 psychological round number

GBPUSD maintains a firmer tone. On Monday, the pair traded above last week’s high of 1.2525 and the 20-day EMA, currently at 1.2510. The clear break of this average signals scope for a stronger short-term recovery and opens 1.2638, the May 4 high and a key resistance. On the downside key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at 1.2156, the May 13 low. Initial firm support lies at 1.2317, the May 17 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 0.8658 High Sep 29 2021
• RES 3: 0.8643 High Sep 30 2021
• RES 2: 0.8619 High May 12 and bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8587 High May 24
• PRICE: 0.8499 @ 06:24 BST May 26
• SUP 1: 0.8476/8433 20-day EMA / Low May 23
• SUP 2: 0.8393/ 0.8391 Low May 17 / 61.8% of Apr 14 - May 12 upleg
• SUP 3: 0.8367 Low May 2 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.8337 76.4% retracement of the Apr 14 - May 12 upleg

EURGBP rallied Tuesday and cleared 0.8534, May 16 high. The cross faced resistance Wednesday though and retraced the bulk of Tuesday gains. Despite the move lower, a positive theme remains intact. The break higher this week reinstates a S/T bullish theme and attention is on 0.8619, May 12 high and the next hurdle for bulls. Clearance of this level would resume a 3.5 month uptrend. Initial support lies at 0.8476, the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Monitoring The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 132.39 High Apr 15 2002
• RES 3: 131.96 1.00 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 129.78/131.35 High May 17 / High May 9 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 128.22 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 127.43 @ 06:30 BST May 26
• SUP 1: 126.36 Low May 24
• SUP 2: 125.95 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 125.09 Low Apr 14
• SUP 4: 124.01 Low Apr 11

USDJPY traded lower Tuesday and breached support at 126.95, Apr 27 low. This level represented an important short-term pivot support and the break suggests scope for a continuation lower. A move down is still considered a correction and is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. Attention is on the 50-day EMA, at 125.95. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 129.78, May 17 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Watching Resistance

• RES 4: 141.06 High Jun 4 2015 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 140.87 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 28 - Apr 5 price swing
• RES 2: 138.32/140.00 High May 9 / High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 136.80 High May 23
• PRICE: 136.03 @ 06:42 BST May 26
• SUP 1: 133.93 Low May 19
• SUP 2: 132.76/66 100-dma / Low May 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 132.20 50% retracement of the Mar 7 - Apr 21 bull phase
• SUP 4: 131.59 Low Mar 22

On Monday, EURJPY attempted a break of resistance at 136.75, the May 12 high, but has since pulled back. 132.66, the May 12 low has been defined as a key S/T support. The recovery since May 12 threatens a recent bearish theme. An extension higher would open 138.32, the May 9 high and an important short-term resistance. On the downside, clearance of 132.66 would be a bearish development and open 132.20, a Fibonacci retracement.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs

• RES 4: 0.7343 61.8% retracement of the Apr 5 - May 12 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.7266 High May 4/5 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.7172 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.7127 High May 23
• PRICE: 0.7061 @ 06:53 BST May 26
• SUP 1: 0.7002 Low May 20
• SUP 2: 0.6950/29 Low May 18 / Low May 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6805 Low Jun 22 2020
• SUP 4: 0.6784 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 2 - 4 price swing

AUDUSD is still trading closer to its recent highs and maintains a firmer short-term tone. Resistance at 0.7054, May 11 high, has been cleared. A continuation higher would strengthen the current bull cycle and open the 50-day EMA at 0.7172. Gains are still considered corrective and the primary trend direction is down. The bear trigger is 0.6829, the May 12 low. Initial firm support to watch is at 0.6950, May 18 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Remains Above Tuesday’s Low

• RES 4: 1.3116 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.3091 High Nov 24 2020
• RES 2: 1.3077 High May 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2896/2982 High May 18 / High May 16
• PRICE: 1.2847 @ 06:57 BST May 26
• SUP 1: 1.2767/65 50-day EMA / Low May 24
• SUP 2: 1.2714 Low May 5 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.2568 Low Apr 22
• SUP 4: 1.2459 Low Apr 21

USDCAD continues to trade closer to its recent lows. The latest move down is considered corrective and the broader trend outlook remains bullish. Recent gains resulted in a breach of 1.2914, May 2 high, and 1.2964, the Dec 20 2021 high. The break of the latter marks an important medium-term bullish development. Key support to watch is at 1.2714, May 5 low. A break would alter the short-term outlook.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M2) Consolidating

• RES 4: 157.87 High Apr 7
• RES 3: 157.29 High Apr 8
• RES 2: 156.00 High Apr 28, 50-day EMA and a key resistance
• RES 1: 155.33 High May 12
• PRICE: 153.81 @ 05:09 BST May 26
• SUP 1: 151.89/150.49 Low May 18 / Low May 9
• SUP 2: 150.15 0.764 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 150.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 4: 149.49 Low Jul 13 2015 (cont)

Bund futures are unchanged and continue to consolidate plus trade below recent highs. The trend direction remains down. Recent fresh cycle lows have maintained the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs - the definition of a downtrend. Moving average studies are in a bear mode condition. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 150.49, the bear trigger. Firm trend resistance is unchanged at 156.00.

BOBL TECHS: (M2) 50-Day EMA Remains Intact

• RES 4: 129.770 High Mar 29
• RES 3: 129.350 High Apr 4 and a reversal point
• RES 2: 128.380 High May 12
• RES 1: 128.293 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 127.430 @ 05:11 BST May 26
• SUP 1: 126.610/126.010 Low May 18 / Low May 6 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 126.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 125.450 0.618 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 125.260 Low Apr 24 20014 (cont)

Bobl futures remain in consolidation mode. Price, on May 12, probed resistance at 128.310, the Apr 14/28 high. A resumption of strength and a clear breach of 128.310 would leave the 50-day EMA at 128.293 exposed. A clear breach of the average would signal scope for a stronger corrective cycle. The primary trend remains down, a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 126.010.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M2) Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 111.095 50.0% retracement of the Mar 7 - May 6 downleg
• RES 3: 111.000 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 110.855 High Apr 4
• RES 1: 110.600/110.690 50-day EMA / High May 12
• PRICE: 110.360 @ 05:09 BST May 26
• SUP 1: 109.980 Low May 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 109.777 0.618 proj of the Mar 7 - 30 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 109.555 Low Oct 31 2011 (cont)
• SUP 4: 109.340 Low Oct 28 011 (cont)

Schatz futures are consolidating. The primary trend direction remains down and following the pullback from 110.690, May 13 high, the recent bullish corrective cycle appears to be over. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 109.980, May 6 low, where a break would resume the downtrend. The 50-day EMA, at 110.600, remains intact and this indicator represents an important resistance.

GILT TECHS: (M2) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 122.72 High Mar 18
• RES 3: 122.35 High Apr 4
• RES 2: 121.84 50.0% retracement of the Mar 1 - May 9 bear leg
• RES 1: 119.95/121.07 High May 19 / High May 12
• PRICE: 118.61 @ Close May 25
• SUP 1: 117.91 Low May 23
• SUP 2: 116.87 Low May 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 116.35 Low Dec 30 2015 (cont)
• SUP 4: 115.40 1.00 proj of the Mar 1 - 28 - Apr 4 price swing

The primary trend direction in Gilt futures remains down. The pullback from recent highs just above the 50-day EMA is a bearish development. This still suggests the correction between May 9 - 12 is over. Attention is on the key support and bear trigger at 116.87, May 9 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 121.07, May 12 high, where a break is required to reinstate a short-term bullish bullish theme.

BTP TECHS: (M2) Key Support Still Intact

• RES 4: 135.23 High Apr 14
• RES 3: 133.53 High Apr 28
• RES 2: 132.81 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 131.24 High May 12
• PRICE: 128.89 @ Close May 25
• SUP 1: 127.24/125.54 Low May 11 and 24 / Low May 9
• SUP 2: 125.02 1.236 proj of the Mar 1 - 29 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 124.02 Low Mar 18 2020 (cont) and a major support
• SUP 4: 123.41 1.382 proj of the of the Mar 1 - 29 - 31 price swing

The primary trend condition in BTP futures is bearish. A corrective (bullish) cycle has recently been established though and the contract did on May 12, manage to trade above a trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 1 high. Price has since pulled back however a resumption of strength would signal scope for a move towards 133.53, Apr 28 high. Key support is at 125.54, May 9 low. A break of this level would resume the downtrend.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M2) Primary Trend Direction Remains Down

• RES 4: 3944.00 High Mar 29 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 3883.00 High Apr 21
• RES 2: 3775.00 High May 5
• RES 1: 3723.80/3745.00 50-day EMA / High May 18
• PRICE: 3678.00 @ 05:45 BST May 26
• SUP 1: 3576.00/3466.00 Low May 19 / Low May 10 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3458.90 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally
• SUP 3: 3400.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 3309.00 Low Mar 7 and a major support

EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain in consolidation mode. The primary trend direction is down but a corrective cycle is still in play, following the recovery from 3466.00, May 10 low. Price last week challenged the 50-day EMA, at 3722.00 today, which has so far capped gains. A clear breach of the EMA would improve a short-term bullish theme and open 3775.00, the May 5 high. Key support and the bear trigger to watch is at 3466.00, May 10 low.

E-MINI S&P (M2): Trend Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 4509.00 High Apr 21
• RES 3: 4393.25 High Apr 22
• RES 2: 4303.50 High Apr 26/28 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 4099.00/4197.54 High May 9 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 3969.50 @ 06:36 BST May 26
• SUP 1: 3807.50 Low May 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3801.97 38.2% of the Mar ‘20 - Jan ‘22 bull leg (cont)
• SUP 3: 3787.74 2.618 proj of the Mar 29 - Apr 18 - 21 price swing
• SUP 4: 3747.52 2.764 proj of the Mar 29 - Apr 18 - 21 price swing

S&P E-Minis continue to above recent lows, but remain vulnerable. This follows the reversal from 4095.00 on May 18. The pullback has left key resistance at 4099.00 intact, May 9 high. The move lower, and last Friday’s trend low, opens 3801.97 next, 38.2% of the Mar ‘20 - Jan ‘22 bull leg (cont). Clearance of 4099.00 is required to ease the bearish threat and signal a potential short-term base.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N2) Eyeing Resistance

• RES 4: $123.44 - High Mar 8
• RES 3: $121.13 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 15 downleg
• RES 2: $115.76 - High Mar 24 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: $115.69 - High May 17
• PRICE: $114.38 @ 06:55 BST May 26
• SUP 1: $105.70/101.30 - Low May 13 / Low May 11
• SUP 2: $99.25 - Low Apr 25 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: $97.18 - Low Apr 11
• SUP 4: $92.59 - Low Mar 15 and a bear trigger

Brent futures are unchanged and holding on to recent gains. Short-term conditions remain bullish. The contract last week breached resistance at $114.00, May 5 high. This highlights potential for an extension higher and opens $115.76, the Mar 24 high and a bull trigger. A break of $115.76 would open the $120.00 handle. On the downside, key support is unchanged at $101.30, the May 11 low. Initial firm support is seen at $105.70, May 19 low.

WTI TECHS: (N2) Bullish Focus

• RES 4: $120.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $116.43 - High Mar 7 and the trend high
• RES 2: $115.04 - High Mar 8
• RES 1: $113.20 - High May 17
• PRICE: $110.79 @ 07:06 BST May 26
• SUP 1: $103.24 - Low May 19
• SUP 2: $102.33/96.93 - 50-day EMA / Low May 11 and key S/T level
• SUP 3: $94.47 - Low Apr 25
• SUP 4: $92.15 - Low Apr 11 and a key support

WTI futures continue to trade closer to recent highs and maintain a bullish S/T tone. Price has recently breached resistance at $109.77, May 5 high and this improved the outlook for bulls. Note that $110.07, the Mar 24 high has also been cleared. A resumption would signal scope for a climb towards key resistance at $116.43, the Mar 7 trend high. Key short-term support lies at $96.93, May 11 low, where a break would instead signal a potential top.

GOLD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: $1919.9 - High Apr 29 and key resistance
• RES 3: $1909.8 - High May 5
• RES 2: $1883.3 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $1869.7 - High May 24
• PRICE: $1844.7 @ 07:11 BST May 26
• SUP 1: $1807.5/1787.0 - Low May 18 / Low May 16 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $1780.4 - Low Jan 28 and a key support
• SUP 3: $1753.7 - Low Dec 15 2021
• SUP 4: $1749.3 - 1.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing

Gold maintains a firmer short-term tone and is trading closer to its recent highs, despite the latest minor pullback. The yellow metal has this week traded above resistance at $1859.1, the 20-day EMA. This suggests potential for a test of the 50-day EMA at $1883.3. Gains are still considered corrective though and the primary trend direction is down. A resumption of bearish activity would refocus attention on last week’s $1787.0 low (May 16).

SILVER TECHS: Resistance At The 20-Day EMA Remains Intact

• RES 4: $24.666 - High Apr 22
• RES 3: $23.974 - Low Mar 29
• RES 2: $23.121 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $22.216 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $21.769 @ 07:20 BST May 26
• SUP 1: $20.464 - Low May 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $20.282 - 2.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 3: $20.000 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $19.581 - 2.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing

The Silver outlook remains bearish despite the recovery from $20.464, May 13 low. Recent weakness resulted in a break of support at $22.008, Feb 3 low and a bear trigger. The move lower reinforced the bearish theme and has resulted in a breach of $21.427/423, the Dec 15 2021 low and Sep 29 2021 low. Sights are on $20.000 next. Firm short-term resistance to watch is at $22.240 the 20-day EMA. A break would signal scope for a stronger recovery.