MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - GBP in Focus, Downside Exposed
MNI (LONDON) - Price Signal Summary – GBP in Focus as Downside Exposed
- S&P E-Minis traded lower last week and this resulted in a break of the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The breach does highlight a short-term bearish corrective cycle and a resumption of weakness would open 5370.62, a Fibonacci retracement. A bear threat in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains present and recent gains are considered corrective. The contract has recently breached 4846.00, the Apr 19 low. A clear break of this level would pave the way for an extension towards 4738.18, the 200 day MA (cont).
- GBPUSD is unchanged and is trading closer to its recent lows. The bear cycle that started Jul 17, remains intact. Support at the 20-day EMA has been cleared and this signals scope for a move towards 1.2792, the 50-day EMA. USDJPY remains bearish and Wednesday’s sell-off reinforces this condition. The move down confirms a resumption of the downtrend and price has traded through a key chart point at the 150.00 handle. A sharp sell-off in AUDUSD last week and Wednesday’s low print, reinforce a bearish theme. Recent weakness has resulted in a break of support at 0.6576, the Jun 10 low. This paves the way for a move towards 0.6466, a Fibonacci retracement point.
- The recent move down in Gold is considered corrective. The yellow metal did manage to pierce support at the 50-day EMA - at $2367.2. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards $2277.4, the May 3 low and a key support. A bear threat in WTI futures remains present and yesterday’s strong bounce is considered corrective - for now. The recent breach of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, reinforces a bear theme.
- A bull cycle in Bund futures remains in play and the contract has traded higher this week. The move has resulted in a break above 133.21, the Jun 14 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this level confirms a resumption of the uptrend note that the 134.00 handle has been cleared. Gilt futures have traded higher this week. This marks an extension of last Friday’s strong bounce and has resulted in a break of 98.93, the Jul 18 high, and 99.23, the Jun 21 high. Clearance of both levels confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started May 29.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Watching Support At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 1.0981 High Mar 8 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 1.0964 High Mar 13
- RES 2: 1.0897/0948 High Jul 23 / 17 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.0870 High Jul 25 / 29
- PRICE: 1.0826 @ 06:01 BST Aug 1
- SUP 1: 1.0798 Low Jul 30
- SUP 2: 1.0774 61.8% retracement of the Jun 26 - Jul 17 bull phase
- SUP 3: 1.0733 76.4% retracement of the Jun 26 - Jul 17 bull phase
- SUP 4: 1.0666 Low Jun 26
EURUSD remains in a bear-mode condition for now and price is trading just above Tuesday’s low. The pair has pierced support at the 50-day EMA, at 1.0802, an important short-term pivot support. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 1.0774, a Fibonacci retracement. . A reversal higher would highlight the end of the current corrective cycle and open the key resistance at 1.0948, the Jul 17 high.
GBPUSD TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Lows
- RES 4: 1.3193 2.236 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing
- RES 3: 1.3142 High Jul 14 ‘23 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 1.3110 Bull channel top drawn from the Oct 4 ‘23 low
- RES 1: 1.2938/3044 High Jul 24 / 17 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.2852 @ 06:19 BST Aug 1
- SUP 1: 1.2807 Low Jul 29
- SUP 2: 1.2792 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.2741 Low Julh 4
- SUP 4: 1.2613 Low Jun 27 and a key support
GBPUSD is unchanged and is trading closer to its recent lows. The bear cycle that started Jul 17, remains intact. Support at the 20-day EMA has been cleared and this signals scope for a move towards 1.2792, the 50-day EMA. The latest move down appears to be a correction. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting an uptrend. Key resistance and the bull trigger is unchanged at 1.3044, the Jul 17 high.
EURGBP TECHS: Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 0.8525 High Jun 6
- RES 3: 0.8499 High Jul 1 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 0.8478 High Jul 5
- RES 1: 0.8458/61 50-day EMA / High Jul 29
- PRICE: 0.8427 @ 06:34 BST Aug 1
- SUP 1: 0.8393/83 Low Jul 25 / 17 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.8366 2.236 proj of the Apr 23 - 30 - May 9 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.8333 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 4: 0.8279 3.00 proj of the Apr 23 - 30 - May 9 price swing
EURGBP is in consolidation mode. Recent gains appear to be corrective in nature and a bearish theme is intact. The move down earlier this month resulted in a print below 0.8397, the Jun 14 low and a bear trigger. A clear break of this price level would confirm a resumption of the medium-term downtrend and open 0.8366, a Fibonacci projection. The next firm resistance is seen at 0.8458, the 50-day EMA.
USDJPY TECHS: Impulsive Bearish Wave
- RES 4: 157.86 High Jul 19
- RES 3: 156.51/156.73 20- and 50-day EMA values
- RES 2: 155.25 High Jul 30
- RES 1: 151.94 Low Jul 25
- PRICE: 149.97 @ 06:51 BST Aug 1
- SUP 1: 148.51 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 148.04 Low Mar 13 / 8
- SUP 3: 147.24/146.49 Low
- SUP 4: 145.37 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 ‘23 - Jul 3 upleg
USDJPY remains bearish and Wednesday’s sell-off reinforces this condition. The move down confirms a resumption of the downtrend and price has traded through a key chart point at the 150.00 handle. A close below this level would reinforce a bearish theme. 148.54, 61.8% of the Dec 28 ‘23 - Jul 3 upleg, has been pierced. A resumption of weakness would open 148.04, the Mar 15 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 155.22, the Jul 30 high.
EURJPY TECHS: Bear Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 171.09 High Jul 23
- RES 3: 169.55 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 168.01 High Jul 26
- RES 1: 164.83 Low Jul 25
- PRICE: 162.08 @ 07:07 BST Aug 1
- SUP 1: 160.89 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 160.22 Low Mar 11
- SUP 3: 158.92 Low Feb 7
- SUP 4: 158.47 76.4% retracement of the Dec 7 ‘23 - Jul 11 bull cycle
The sharp sell-off in EURJPY this week, reinforces a bearish theme. The move down since Jul 11 has resulted in the break of a trendline drawn from Dec 7 low last year, and a breach of the 50-day EMA. Moving average studies are also highlighting a bear cross. This signals scope for an extension towards 160.22, the Mar 11 low. On the upside, a key short-term resistance is seen at 168.01, Jul 26 high. Initial resistance is 164.83, Jul 25 low.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains Intact
- RES 4: 0.6702 High Jul 22
- RES 3: 0.6641 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6620 Low Jun 28
- RES 1: 0.6583 High Jul 25
- PRICE: 0.6528 @ 07:58 BST Aug 1
- SUP 1: 0.6480 Low Jul 31
- SUP 2: 0.6466 76.4% retracement of the Apr 19 - Jul 11 bull phase
- SUP 3: 0.6441 Low Apr 23
- SUP 4: 0.6407 Low Apr 22
A sharp sell-off in AUDUSD last week and Wednesday’s low print, reinforce a bearish theme. Recent weakness has resulted in a break of support at 0.6576, the Jun 10 low. This paves the way for a move towards 0.6466, a Fibonacci retracement point. From a near-term perspective, the short-term trend is oversold. A recovery would allow this condition to unwind. Key short-term resistance is seen at 0.6641, the 50-day EMA.
USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Trend Structure
- RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13, 2022
- RES 3: 1.3934 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 1.3865 High Jul 29
- PRICE: 1.3820 @ 08:04 BST Aug 1
- SUP 1: 1.3788 Low Jul 31
- SUP 2: 1.3755 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3711 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.3367 Low Jul 17
Trend conditions in USDCAD remain bullish and yesterday’s pullback appears to be a correction. Recent gains resulted in a break of 1.3792, the Jun 11 high, and more recently, a print above key resistance at 1.3846, the Apr 16 high. The trend condition is overbought, however, a clear break of 1.3846 would strengthen the bull theme and open 1.3899, the Nov 1 ‘23 high and a key resistance. Firm support lies at 1.3711, the 50-day EMA.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (U4) Northbound
- RES 4: 135.88 High Feb 2 (cont)
- RES 3: 134.78 2.382 projection of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 1 price swing
- RES 2: 134.46 2.236 projection of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 1 price swing
- RES 1: 134.17 Intraday high
- PRICE: 134.01 @ 05:41 BST Aug 1
- SUP 1: 133.06 Low Jul 30
- SUP 2: 132.40 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 132.02/62 50-day EMA / Low Jul 22 and a key support
- SUP 4: 131.39 Low Jul 15
A bull cycle in Bund futures remains in play and the contract has traded higher this week. The move has resulted in a break above 133.21, the Jun 14 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this level confirms a resumption of the uptrend note that the 134.00 handle has been cleared. Sights are on 134.46, a Fibonacci projection. First key support is 132.40, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
BOBL TECHS: (U4) Bull Cycle Remains Intact
- RES 4: 118.100 High Apr 12 (cont)
- RES 3: 117.9300 2.50 proj of the May 31 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
- RES 2: 117.800 2.382 proj of the May 31 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
- RES 1: 117.760 Intraday high
- PRICE: 117.660 @ 06.00 BST Aug 1
- SUP 1: 117.140/116.779 Low Jul 30 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 116.320 Low Jul 22
- SUP 3: 115.980 Low Jul 10 / 11
- SUP 4: 115.530 Low Jul and the key short-term support
Bobl futures have traded higher this week. This has resulted in a break of key resistance at the Jun 14 high of 117.160. A medium-term bull cycle remains in play and the clear breach of 117.160 reinforces current conditions. This opens 117.800, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, a reversal would instead refocus attention on 116.320, the Jul 22 low and key support. Initial firm support is 116.779, the 20-day EMA.
SCHATZ TECHS: (U4) Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 106.308 3.236 projection of the May 24 - Jun 4 - 7 price swing
- RES 3: 106.270 High Jan 12 (cont)
- RES 2: 106.225 3.00 projection of the May 24 - Jun 4 - 7 price swing
- RES 1: 106.170 Intraday high
- PRICE: 106.135 @ 05:57 BST Aug 1
- SUP 1: 105.935/807 Low Jul 30 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 105.630 Low Jul 22
- SUP 3: 105.495 Low Jul 11
- SUP 4: 105.390 Low Jul 5 and a key support
The current uptrend in Schatz futures remains intact. The contract has traded through resistance at 105.975, the Jun 14 high. The clear break of this hurdle confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started May 24. Sights are on 106.225, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support to watch lies at 105.807, the 20-day EMA, and 105.630, the Jul 22 low. A clear break of these two levels would be seen as a bearish development.
GILT TECHS: (U4) Has Cleared Resistance
- RES 4: 100.21 1.50 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
- RES 3: 100.00 Psychological round number
- RES 2: 99.62 1.382 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
- RES 1: 99.43 High Jul 31
- PRICE: 99.22 @ Close Jul 31
- SUP 1: 98.27/97.46 20-day EMA / Low Jul 26
- SUP 2: 96.96 Low Jul 3
- SUP 3: 96.57 Low Jul 1 and a key support
- SUP 4: 96.25 76.4% retracement of the May 29 - Jun 21 bull run
Gilt futures have traded higher this week. This marks an extension of last Friday’s strong bounce and has resulted in a break of 98.93, the Jul 18 high, and 99.23, the Jun 21 high. Clearance of both levels confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started May 29 and signals scope for a climb towards 99.62, a Fibonacci projection. For bears, a reversal and break of 97.46, the Jul 26 low, would instead reinstate a bearish threat.
BTP TECHS: (U4) Bulls Remain IN The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 120.85 2.236 proj of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
- RES 3: 120.20 2.00 proj of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
- RES 2: 119.55 1.764 proj of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
- RES 1: 119.07 High Jul 31
- PRICE: 118.96 @ Close Jul 31
- SUP 1: 117.81/30 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 116.07 Low Jul 8
- SUP 3: 114.72 Low Jul 2
- SUP 4: 114.35 Low Jun 11 and key support
BTP futures have traded higher this week. The medium-term trend remains positive following recent strong gains. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards 119.55, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is seen at 117.81, the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA lies at 117.30. A clear break of both averages would instead highlight a bearish threat and a potential reversal.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U4) Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 5087.00 High Jul 12 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 5012.00 High Jul 16
- RES 2: 4958.56/4980.00 50-day EMA 5132.00 / High Jul 23
- RES 1: 4924.00 High Jul 29
- PRICE: 4907.00 @ 06:27 BST Aug 1
- SUP 1: 4793.00 Low Jul 25
- SUP 2: 4762.00 Low Apr 19 (cont)
- SUP 3: 4734.54 200-dma (cont)
- SUP 4: 4679.00 1.50 proj of the Jun 6 - 14 - Jul 12 price swing
A bear threat in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains present and recent gains are considered corrective. The contract has recently breached 4846.00, the Apr 19 low. A clear break of this level would pave the way for an extension towards 4738.18, the 200 day MA (cont). Moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a downtrend. Initial firm resistance to watch is 4980.00, Jul 23 high.
E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U4) Short-Term Resistance Remains Intact For Now
- RES 4: 5741.34 3.382 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
- RES 3: 5721.25 High Jul 16 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 5629.75 High Jul 23
- RES 1: 5596.50 Intraday high
- PRICE: 5582.50 @ 07:24 BST Aug 1
- SUP 1: 5432.50 Low Jul 25
- SUP 2: 5370.62 50.0% retracement of the Apr 19 - Jul 16 bull leg
- SUP 3: 5364.49 3.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 4: 5267.75 Low May 31 and key support
S&P E-Minis traded lower last week and this resulted in a break of the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The breach does highlight a short-term bearish corrective cycle and a resumption of weakness would open 5370.62, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, this week’s gains are a positive development. Resistance to watch is 5629.75, the Jul 23 high. Clearance of this level would highlight a bullish break and signal the end of the recent correction.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (V4) Bear Threat Still Present And Gains Appear Corrective
- RES 4: $89.34 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
- RES 3: $88.44 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: $84.66/87.05 - High Jul 18 / 5
- RES 1: $ 82.37 - 50-day EMA
- PRICE: $81.49 @ 07:07 BST Aug 1
- SUP 1: $77.95 - Low Jul 30
- SUP 2: $76.42 - Low Jun 4 and a key support
- SUP 3: $74.96 - Low Feb 5
- SUP 4: $73.31 - Low Dec 13 2023
A bear cycle in Brent futures remains in play and the latest bounce appears to be a correction - for now. The recent breach of the 20- and 50 EMAs continues to suggest scope for an extension lower near-term. This has opened $76.42, the Jun 4 low and the next key support. Note that the medium-term trend remains bullish. A reversal higher would refocus attention on $87.05, the Jul 5 high and a key resistance.
WTI TECHS: (U4) Bear Cycle Remains Intact Despite A Bounce In Price
- RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
- RES 3: $87.43 - 1.00 proj of the Dec 13 ‘23 - Apr 12 - Jun 4 swing
- RES 2: $84.36 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $78.81/83.58 - 50-day EMA / High Jul 5
- PRICE: $78.64 @ 07:16 BST Aug 1
- SUP 1: $74.59 - Low Jul 30
- SUP 2: $72.23 - Low Jun 4 and a key support
- SUP 3: $70.73 - Low Feb 5
- SUP 4: $69.16 - Low Dec 13 2023
A bear threat in WTI futures remains present and yesterday’s strong bounce is considered corrective - for now. The recent breach of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, reinforces a bear theme. A continuation lower would open $72.23, the Jun 4 low and the next key support. For bulls, a reversal higher would instead refocus attention on the key resistance points at $83.58, the Jul 5 high, and $84.36, the Apr 12 high.
GOLD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: $2575.4 - 3.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
- RES 3: $2528.4 - 3.00 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
- RES 2: $2500.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $2483.7 - High Jul 17 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $2447.0 @ 07:22 BST Aug 1
- SUP 1: $2396.7/2353.2 - 20-day EMA / Low Jul 25
- SUP 2: $2286.9 - Low Jun 7
- SUP 3: $2277.4 - Low May 3 and a pivot support
- SUP 4: $2228.6 - Low Apr 1
The recent move down in Gold is considered corrective. The yellow metal did manage to pierce support at the 50-day EMA - at $2367.2. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards $2277.4, the May 3 low and a key support. For bulls, this week’s gains are constructive. A continuation higher would expose $2483.7, the Jul 17 high, and a bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle resumes the uptrend.
SILVER TECHS: Bearish Condition Despite Recent Gains
- RES 4: $35.226 - 50.0% of the Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 bear leg
- RES 3: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
- RES 2: $32.518 - High May 20 and bull trigger
- RES 1: $29.354/31.754 - 50-day EMA / High Jul 11
- PRICE: $28.932 @ 08:08 BST Aug 1
- SUP 1: $27.311 - Low Jul 29
- SUP 2: $27.011 - Low May 8
- SUP 3: $26.018 - Low May 2 and a key support
- SUP 4: $24.328 - Low Mar 27
A bearish cycle in Silver remains in play despite this week’s gains. The metal slipped through supports last week, extending the negative response to the recent break of the 50-day EMA at $29.354. Note too that support at $28.573, the Jun 26 low, has been cleared. This paves the way for an extension towards $26.018, the May 2 low and a key support. A reversal would refocus attention on $31.754 initially, the Jul 11 high.