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MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - GBP Resumes Primary Downtrend

Price Signal Summary – GBP Resumes Primary Downtrend

  • S&P E-Minis maintains a bearish tone. Monday’s sell-off resulted in a break below 3810.00, the May 20 low and bear trigger. The clear break of this support has confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend and opens 3697.99 next, the 0.618 projection of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing. EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded lower again Tuesday as the contract extends the reversal from recent highs. The move lower yesterday resulted in a breach of key support at 3466.00, the May 10 low.
  • GBPUSD is bearish. Losses have accelerated this week and resulted in a breach of the bear trigger at 1.2156, May 13 low. The break lower confirms a resumption of the primary downtrend and potential is seen for an extension below the 1.2000 handle, to retest 1.1934, the Mar 20 2020 high and yesterday’s low. EURUSD maintains a bearish theme and is trading closer to its recent lows. Recent weakness that followed a reversal at the top of the bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high, highlights a bearish threat. USDJPY has traded above 135.00 again. The move higher maintains the current bullish theme and the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
  • Gold faced resistance Monday and again yesterday. The yellow metal has failed to remain above the 50-day EMA and this signals a bearish development and the potential end of the recent correction between May 16 - Jun 13. The WTI futures outlook is unchanged and the uptrend remains firmly intact. The latest pullback is considered corrective. Price on May 31, breached $116.43, Mar 7 high and a former contract high.
  • Bund futures remain in a clear downtrend. A bearish theme and strong downward price pressure delivered fresh lows once again yesterday. Price has recently cleared support at 150.97, May 9 low, and the 150.00 handle. Gilt futures traded lower again Tuesday and remain bearish. The move lower again confirms a resumption of the downtrend and an extension of the latest bear leg that began May 19.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bearish Theme Exposes Key Support

  • RES 4: 1.0852 High Apr 22
  • RES 3: 1.0787 High May 30
  • RES 2: 1.0707/74 Bear channel top from Feb 10 high / High Jun 9
  • RES 1: 1.0523/0612 High Jun 13 / 20-day EMA
  • PRICE: 1.0428 @ 05:52 BST Jun 15
  • SUP 1: 1.0397 Low Jun 14
  • SUP 2: 1.0350 Low May 13 and bear trigger
  • SUP 3: 1.0341 Low Jan 3 2017 and a key support
  • SUP 4: 1.0168 Bear channel base, drawn from the Feb 10 high

EURUSD maintains a bearish theme and is trading closer to its recent lows. Recent weakness that followed a reversal at the top of the bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high, highlights a bearish threat. The channel top intersects at 1.0707 today. The reversal lower also signals a resumption of the primary downtrend and attention is on the bear trigger at 1.0350, May 13 low. Initial firm resistance is at 1.0612, the 20-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trades Below 1.2000

  • RES 4: 1.2613 50-day EMA
  • RES 3: 1.2599 High Jun 7
  • RES 2: 1.2434 20-day EMA
  • RES 1: 1.2208/2332 High Jun 14 / High Jun 13
  • PRICE: 1.2001 @ 06:10 BST Jun 15
  • SUP 1: 1.1934 Low Jun 14 and High Mar 20 2020
  • SUP 2: 1.1795 0.764 proj of the Mar 23 - May 13 - 27 price swing
  • SUP 3: 1.1777 Low Mar 26 2020
  • SUP 4: 1.1640 Low Mar 25 2020

GBPUSD is bearish. Losses have accelerated this week and resulted in a breach of the bear trigger at 1.2156, May 13 low. The break lower confirms a resumption of the primary downtrend and potential is seen for an extension below the 1.2000 handle, to retest 1.1934, the Mar 20 2020 high and yesterday’s low. Moving average studies are in a bear mode, highlighting current sentiment. Firm resistance is seen at 1.2434, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Clears Key Resistance

  • RES 4: 0.8852 50.0% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Mar ‘22 bear leg
  • RES 3: 0.8761 1.00 proj of the Apr 14 - May 12 - 17 price swing
  • RES 2: 0.8721 High May 26 2021
  • RES 1: 0.8716 High Jun 14
  • PRICE: 0.8691 @ 06:17 BST Jun 15
  • SUP 1: 0.8619/8520 High May 12 / 20-day EMA
  • SUP 2: 0.8482 50-day EMA
  • SUP 3: 0.8433 Low May 23
  • SUP 4: 0.8393 Low May 17 and a key support

EURGBP remains firm. The cross traded higher Tuesday and in the process cleared resistance at 0.8619, the May 12 high and an important short-term bull trigger. The break reinforces bullish conditions and has confirmed a resumption of the underlying uptrend. The focus is on a climb towards 0.8721 next, the Apr 26 high. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 0.8535, the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Bullish Focus

  • RES 4: 138.56 1.618 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
  • RES 3: 137.30 1.50 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
  • RES 2: 136.04 1.382 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
  • RES 1: 135.59 Intraday high
  • PRICE: 135.05 @ 06:37 BST Jun 15
  • SUP 1: 133.19/131.87 Low Jun 9 / Low Jun 7
  • SUP 2: 131.39 20-day EMA
  • SUP 3: 128.46 50-day EMA
  • SUP 4: 126.36 Low May 24 and key support

USDJPY has traded above 135.00 again. The move higher maintains the current bullish theme and the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are pointing north and indications are that the USD has further to go, despite being overbought. The focus is on the 136.04, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is seen at 131.39, the 20-day EMA. Any short-term retracement would be considered corrective.

EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play

  • RES 4: 145.58 High Dec 31 2014
  • RES 3: 145.00 Round number resistance
  • RES 2: 144.25/58 High Jun 8 / 0.764 proj of Mar 7 - 28 - Apr 5 swing
  • RES 1: 142.79 High Jun 10
  • PRICE: 141.25 @ 06:52 BST Jun 15
  • SUP 1: 139.62/40 1.0% 10-dma envelope / 20-day EMA
  • SUP 2: 138.32 High May 9
  • SUP 3: 137.30 50-day EMA
  • SUP 4: 136.25 Low May 30

EURJPY remains below last week’s high of 144.25 on Jun 8 with the cross currently in a corrective cycle. The primary trend remains up. The recent rally above 140.00 confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Mar 7. Moving average studies still point north, reinforcing current conditions and signalling scope for a continuation higher towards 144.58 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm short-term support is seen at 139.40, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bears Eye Key Support

  • RES 4: 0.7400 Round number resistance
  • RES 3: 0.7343 61.8% retracement of the Apr 5 - May 12 bear leg
  • RES 2: 0.7150/7283 50-day EMA / High Jun 3 and the bull trigger
  • RES 1: 0.6970/7063 High Jun 14 / High Jun 13
  • PRICE: 0.6908 @ 07:01 BST Jun 15
  • SUP 1: 0.6851 Low Jun 14
  • SUP 2: 0.6829 Low May 12 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 3: 0.6805 Low Jun 22 2020
  • SUP 4: 0.6647 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing

AUDUSD traded lower again Tuesday, reinforcing the bearish significance of the latest reversal and the failure to remain above the 50-day EMA. Attention is on key support and the bear trigger at 0.6829, the May 12 low. Clearance of this support would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 0.6805, the Jun 22 2020 low. On the upside, 0.7063, Jun 13 high is seen as an initial firm resistance.

USDCAD TECHS: Strong Bullish Reversal Extends

  • RES 4: 1.3113 High Nov 23 2020
  • RES 3: 1.3077 High May 16 and the bull trigger
  • RES 2: 1.2982 High May 16
  • RES 1: 1.2975 High June 14
  • PRICE: 1.2947 @ 07:24 BST Jun 15
  • SUP 1: 1.2866/2741 Low Jun 14 / 20-day EMA
  • SUP 2: 1.2518 Low Jun 8 and key support
  • SUP 3: 1.2459 Low Apr 21
  • SUP 4: 1.2403 Low Apr 5 and key support

USDCAD has continued to climb this week and the move higher has cemented the recent short-term reversal. Yesterday’s gains resulted in a break of 1.2945, 76.4% of the bear leg between May 12 - Jun 8. The breach reinforces a bullish theme and signals potential for a climb towards key resistance at 1.3077, the May 16 high. Initial firm support is at 1.2741, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U2) Fresh Cycle Lows

  • RES 4: 150.97 Low May 9
  • RES 3: 149.98 20-day EMA
  • RES 2: 147.19/148.51 High Jun 13 / High Jun 10
  • RES 1: 145.58 High Jun 14
  • PRICE: 142.73 @ 04:57 BST Jun 15
  • SUP 1: 142.29 Low Jun 14
  • SUP 2: 142.00 Round number support
  • SUP 3: 141.67 2.50 proj of the Apr 28 - May 9 - 12 price swing
  • SUP 4: 141.00 2.618 proj of the Apr 28 - May 9 - 12 price swing

Bund futures remain in a clear downtrend. A bearish theme and strong downward price pressure delivered fresh lows once again yesterday. Price has recently cleared support at 150.97, May 9 low, and the 150.00 handle. This marked a resumption of the primary downtrend and maintains a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Bears haven’t looked back. The focus is on 1432.00 next. Firm resistance is at 149.98, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (U2) Trend Needle Still Points South

  • RES 4: 124.147 20-day EMA
  • RES 3: 124.190 High Jun 9
  • RES 2: 122.600/123.280 High Jun 13 / High Jun 10
  • RES 1: 121.660 High Jun 14
  • PRICE: 120.790 @ 05:05 BST Jun 15
  • SUP 1: 120.520 Low Jun 14
  • SUP 2: 120.480 3.50 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
  • SUP 3: 120.270 3.618 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
  • SUP 4: 120.000 Psychologicals round number

Bobl futures remain soft with a fresh low print registered again yesterday. The downtrend continues to accelerate and this signals scope for a continuation lower. The recent breach of 124.840, May 6 low confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend and has maintained the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 120.480 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is still seen at 124.147, the 20-day EMA.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U2) Bear Cycle Extension

  • RES 4: 109.300 High Jun 2
  • RES 3: 109.180 High Jun 3 and 9
  • RES 2: 109.030 20-day EMA
  • RES 1: 108.495/108.715 High Jun 13 / High Jun 9
  • PRICE: 107.840 @ 05:24 BST Jun 15
  • SUP 1: 107.935 Intraday low
  • SUP 2: 107.736 3.50 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
  • SUP 3: 107.589 3.618 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
  • SUP 4: 107.430 Low Jul 4 2011 (cont)

Bearish conditions continue to prevail and Schatz futures remain soft. Another fresh cycle low on Tuesday reinforces the downtrend and confirms an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This also suggests scope for a continuation of the trend. The focus is on 107.662 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 109.030, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (U2) Heading South

  • RES 4: 117.49 High May 31
  • RES 3: 116.20 High Jun 1
  • RES 2: 115.55 High Jun 6 and key near-term resistance
  • RES 1: 113.01/114.86 High Jun 13 / High Jun 9
  • PRICE: 111.91@ Close Jun 14
  • SUP 1: 111.28 Low Jun 14
  • SUP 2: 111.00 Round number support
  • SUP 3: 110.59 4.00 proj of the May 19 - 24 - 26 price swing3.5
  • SUP 4: 110.12 4.236 proj of the May 19 - 24 - 26 price swing

Gilt futures traded lower again Tuesday and remain bearish. The move lower again confirms a resumption of the downtrend and an extension of the latest bear leg that began May 19. This also maintains a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 111.00 next. Initial firm resistance is seen at 115.55, the Jun 6 high. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.

BTP TECHS: (U2) Southbound

  • RES 4: 123.88 Low May 9 and a recent breakout level
  • RES 3: 122.33 20-day EMA
  • RES 2: 119.99 High Jun 10
  • RES 1: 118.68 High Jun13
  • PRICE: 114.61 @ Close Jun 14
  • SUP 1: 113.78 Low Jun 14
  • SUP 2: 113.22 3.764 proj of the May 12 - 24 - 26 price swing
  • SUP 3: 112.31 4.00 proj of the May 12 - 24 - 26 price swing
  • SUP 4: 110.83 4.382 proj of the May 12 - 24 - 26 price swing

The primary trend condition in BTP futures remains bearish. This condition was again reinforced Tuesday as price traded lower and this highlights an acceleration of the primary downtrend. The move lower also maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. 120.00 has been cleared, the focus is on 113.22 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 122.33, the 20-day EMA.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M2) Trades Through Key Support

  • RES 4: 3888.00 High Apr 5
  • RES 3: 3883.00 High Apr 21
  • RES 2: 3857.00 High Jun 6 and key short-term resistance
  • RES 1: 3590.00/3729.50 Low Jun 10 / 50-day EMA
  • PRICE: 3849.00 @ 05:14 BST Jun 15
  • SUP 1: 3447.00 Low Jun 14
  • SUP 2: 3400.00 Round number support
  • SUP 3: 3379.00 1.00 proj of the Mar 29 - May 10 - Jun 6 price swing
  • SUP 4: 3309.00 Low Mar 7 and major support

EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded lower again Tuesday as the contract extends the reversal from recent highs. The move lower yesterday resulted in a breach of key support at 3466.00, the May 10 low. This reinforces bearish conditions and signals potential for weakness towards the next key support at 3309.00, the Mar 7 low and a bear trigger. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 3719.60, the 50-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P (U2): Outlook Remains Bearish

  • RES 4: 4396.75 High Apr 22
  • RES 3: 4308.50 High Apr 28
  • RES 2: 4129.35/4204.75 50-day EMA / High May 31
  • RES 1: 4012.36 20-day EMA
  • PRICE: 3755.75 @ 06:56 BST June 15
  • SUP 1: 3708.50 Low Jun 14
  • SUP 2: 3697.99 0.618 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing
  • SUP 3: 3600.00 Round number support
  • SUP 4: 3578 27 618 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing

S&P E-Minis maintains a bearish tone. Monday’s sell-off resulted in a break below 3810.00, the May 20 low and bear trigger. The clear break of this support has confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend and opens 3697.99 next, the 0.618 projection of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 4012.36, the 20-day EMA. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q2) Trend Outlook Remains Bullish

  • RES 4: $130.00 - Psychological round number
  • RES 3: $126.95 - 1.764 proj of the May 11 - 17 - 19 price swing
  • RES 2: $125.04 - 1.618 proj of the May 11 - 17 - 19 price swing
  • RES 1: $124.42/25.19 - High Mar 7 and the bull trigger / High Jun 14
  • PRICE: $121.69 @ 07:02 BST Jun 15
  • SUP 1: $117.25 - 20-day EMA
  • SUP 2: $112.45 - Low Jun 2
  • SUP 3: $111.01 - 50-day EMA
  • SUP 4: $103.84 - Low May 19 and a key support

Brent futures did trade to a fresh trend high Tuesday before pulling back. The outlook is bullish and a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows remains intact. Scope is seen for a retest and clear break of 124.42, the Mar 7 high. A clear break would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. On the downside, the 20-day EMA, at $117.25, is still seen as initial firm support. A break would suggest scope for a deeper corrective pullback.

WTI TECHS: (N2) Uptrend Still Intact

  • RES 4: $127.65 - 1.382 proj of the May 11 - 17 -19 price swing
  • RES 3: $125.73 - 1.382 proj of the May 11 - 17 -19 price swing
  • RES 2: $124.00 - Round number resistance
  • RES 1: $123.68 - High Jun 14 and fresh cycle high
  • PRICE: $119.30 @ 07:49 BST Jun 15
  • SUP 1: $116.62/115.70 - Low Jun 7 / 20-day EMA
  • SUP 2: $108.91 - 50-day EMA
  • SUP 3: $103.24 - Low May 19 and a key support
  • SUP 4: $100.00 - Round number support

The WTI futures outlook is unchanged and the uptrend remains firmly intact. The latest pullback is considered corrective. Price on May 31, breached $116.43, Mar 7 high and a former contract high. This confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and paved the way for an extension higher. The contract has also traded above the psychological $120.00 handle, opening 124.00 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support is seen at $115.70, the 20-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Bearish Threat Still Present

  • RES 4: $1909.8 - High May 5
  • RES 3: $1894.0 - Trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 8 high
  • RES 2: $1878.4 - High Jun 13
  • RES 1: $1847.7 - 20-day EMA
  • PRICE: $1819.0 @ 07:17 BST Jun 15
  • SUP 1: $1805.2 - Low Jun 14
  • SUP 2: $1787.0 - Low May 16 and bear trigger
  • SUP 3: $1780.4 - Low Jan 28 and a key support
  • SUP 4: $1753.7 - Low Dec 15 2021

Gold faced resistance Monday and again yesterday. The yellow metal has failed to remain above the 50-day EMA and this signals a bearish development and the potential end of the recent correction between May 16 - Jun 13. An extension lower would open the key support and bear trigger at $1787.0, May 16 low. A break would resume the downtrend. Key trendline resistance is at $1894.0.

SILVER TECHS: Support Remains Exposed

  • RES 4: $24.666 - High Apr 22
  • RES 3: $23.974 - Low Mar 29
  • RES 2: $22.558 - 50-day EMA
  • RES 1: $22.517 - High Jun 6
  • PRICE: $21.262 @ 08:02 BST Jun 15
  • SUP 1: $20.896/20.464 - Low Jun 13 / Low May 13 and bear trigger
  • SUP 2: $20.282 - 2.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
  • SUP 3: $20.000 - Psychological round number
  • SUP 4: $19.581 - 2.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing

Silver remains below its recent highs and Monday’s sell-off reinforces a bearish theme. The metal recently tested levels above resistance at $22.446, May 27 high. A clear break of this level is still required to suggest scope for an extension higher that would open the 50-day EMA at $22.620. For bears, a resumption of weakness would signal potential for a move towards key support and the bear trigger at $20.464, May 13 low.

MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com

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