MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - GBP S/T Correction Extends
Price Signal Summary – GBP S/T Correction Extends
- A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest shallow pullback is considered corrective. Last week’s fresh cycle highs reinforce a bullish theme and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode setup, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Eurostoxx 50 futures traded sharply higher last week resulting in a clear break of 5024.00, the Sep 3 high. This confirms a resumption of the bull leg that started Aug 5 and cancels a recent bearish theme.
- GBPUSD traded lower Tuesday as a short-term correction extends. Support at the 20-day EMA - at 1.3253 - has been pierced. A clear break of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper correction, potentially towards the 50-day EMA at 1.3107. USDJPY is unchanged. Recent gains appear to have been a correction and last Friday’s sell-off reinforces this theme. The move down also highlights a likely resumption of the downtrend. An extension lower would open 139.58, the Sep 16 low and a bear trigger. The trend condition in USDCAD is unchanged and remains bearish. The strong Sep 24 sell-off reinforces this condition. The pair has traded through support at 1.3441, the Aug 28 low. This breach confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started Aug 5.
- Gold is unchanged and bulls remain in the driver’s seat. Recent gains confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up. WTI futures traded in a volatile manner Tuesday and the contract has recovered from its recent lows. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, at $71.69, remains intact. A clear breach of this EMA is required to highlight a stronger reversal that would open $76.40.
- Bund futures traded sharply higher Tuesday and this resulted in a break above key resistance and a bull trigger at 135.66. A clear break of this hurdle confirms a resumption of the medium-term uptrend and paves the way for a climb towards 136.77. A bear threat in Gilt futures remains present - for now - despite yesterday’s strong gains. The recent move lower has exposed the next key support at 98.11, the Sep 2 low and a bear trigger.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback
- RES 4: 1.1342 2.00 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 17 - Aug 1 price swing
- RES 3: 1.1276 High Jul 18 2023
- RES 2: 1.1214/34 High Sep 25 / 1.618 proj Jun 26-Jul 17-Aug 1 swing
- RES 1: 1.1144 High Oct 1
- PRICE: 1.1060 @ 06:09 BST Oct 2
- SUP 1: 1.1045 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.1002 Low Sep 11
- SUP 3: 1.0940 61.8% retracement of the Aug 1 - 26 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.0878 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 26 bull leg
The short-term outlook in EURUSD remains bullish, however, this week’s move lower highlights scope for a deeper corrective pullback and the pair is trading closer to its latest lows. Attention is on support at the 50-day EMA, at 1.1045. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 1.1002, the Sep 11 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus sights on 1.1234, a Fibonacci projection.
GBPUSD TECHS: Testing Support At The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: 1.3629 2.236 proj of the Jun 27 - Jul 17 - Aug 8 price swing
- RES 3: 1.3527 2.00 proj of the Jun 27 - Jul 17 - Aug 8 price swing
- RES 2: 1.3500 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 1.3389/3434 Oct 1 / High Sep 26 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.3271 @ 06:22 BST Oct 2
- SUP 1: 1.3253/37 - 20-day EMA / Low Oct 1
- SUP 2: 1.3213 Trendline support drawn from the Aug 8 low
- SUP 3: 1.3154 Low Sep 19
- SUP 4: 1.3107 50-day EMA
GBPUSD traded lower Tuesday as a short-term correction extends. Support at the 20-day EMA - at 1.3253 - has been pierced. A clear break of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper correction, potentially towards the 50-day EMA at 1.3107. The trend condition remains bullish and moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, reflecting a clear uptrend. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on the 1.3500 handle.
EURGBP TECHS: Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 0.8494 High Aug 26
- RES 3: 0.8432/64 50-day EMA / High Sep 11
- RES 2: 0.8400 Low Aug 30
- RES 1: 0.8385 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.8335 @ 06:59 BST Oct 2
- SUP 1: 0.8311 3.00 projection of the Aug 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
- SUP 2: 0.8276 3.382 projection of the Aug 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 ‘22
- SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
The trend condition in EURGBP remains bearish and the cross is trading closer to its recent lows. The latest sideways move appears to be a flag formation - a bearish continuation pattern. Furthermore, recent weakness has reinforced the bearish theme. The cross has breached 0.8400, the Aug 30 low, and 0.8383, the Jul 17 low and a key support. Sights are on 0.8276 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is 0.8385, the 20-day EMA.
USDJPY TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 149.39 High Aug 15 and a reversal trigger
- RES 3: 148.05 High Sep 19
- RES 2: 147.21 High Sep 3
- RES 1: 146.18 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 143.54 @ 06:37 BST Oct 2
- SUP 1: 141.65/139.58 Low Sep 30 / 16 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 139.00 1.382 proj of the Aug 15 - 26 - Sep 3 price swing
- SUP 3: 138.30 1.50 proj of the Aug 15 - 26 - Sep 3 price swing
- SUP 4: 138.07 Low Jul 28 2023
USDJPY is unchanged. Recent gains appear to have been a correction and last Friday’s sell-off reinforces this theme. The move down also highlights a likely resumption of the downtrend. An extension lower would open 139.58, the Sep 16 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 139.00, a Fibonacci projection. Key resistance is at 146.18, the 50-day EMA.
EURJPY TECHS: Bearish Outlook
- RES 4: 166.53 High Jul 31
- RES 3: 165.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 163.89 High Aug 15 and a reversal trigger
- RES 1: 161.41/163.49 50-day EMA / High Sep 27
- PRICE: 159.03 @ 07:15 BST Oct 2
- SUP 1: 158.11/155.15 Low Sep 30 / Low Sep 16
- SUP 2: 154.42 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 154.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
A bear cycle in EURJPY remains intact and last Friday’s strong sell-off reinforces this theme. It also highlights the end of the recent corrective cycle. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A continuation lower would open 155.15, the Sep 16 low, and 154.42, the Aug 5 low and a bear trigger. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 163.49, the Sep 27 high, and 163.89, the Aug 15 high.
AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 0.7029 High Feb 14 ‘23
- RES 3: 0.6984 0.764 proj of the Aug 5 - 29 - Sep 11 price swing
- RES 2: 0.6977 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 1: 0.6942 High Sep 30
- PRICE: 0.6890 @ 07:56 BST Oct 2
- SUP 1: 0.6808 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6741 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.6622 Low Sep 11 and key support
- SUP 4: 0.6608 Low Aug 16
An uptrend in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair traded to a fresh cycle high Monday, reinforcing the current bullish set-up. Key resistance at 0.6824, the Aug 29 high, has recently been cleared. The break confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle that started Aug 5. Sights are on 0.6984 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 0.6808, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
USDCAD TECHS: Trading Below Resistance
- RES 4: 1.3693 High Aug 19
- RES 3: 1.3647 High Sep 19 and key resistance
- RES 2: 1.3589 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.3536 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3484 @ 08:01 BST Oct 2
- SUP 1: 1.3420 Low Sep 25 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3413 Low Feb 9
- SUP 3: 1.3358 76.4% retracement of the Dec 27 ‘23 - Aug 5 bull run
- SUP 4: 1.3288 Low Jan 5
The trend condition in USDCAD is unchanged and remains bearish. The strong Sep 24 sell-off reinforces this condition. The pair has traded through support at 1.3441, the Aug 28 low. This breach confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started Aug 5 and paves the way for an extension towards 1.3358, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.3536, the 20-day EMA. Short-term gains are considered corrective.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (Z4) Clears Key Resistance
- RES 4: 137.85 1.382 projection of the Sep 2 - 11 - 20 price swing
- RES 3: 136.77 1.00 projection of the Sep 2 - 11 - 20 price swing
- RES 2: 136.37 1.236 retracement proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 2 bear leg
- RES 1: 136.20 High Oct 1
- PRICE: 135.76 @ 05:47 BST Oct 2
- SUP 1: 134.46 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 134.31/133.83 Low Sep 27 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 132.65 Low Sep 2 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 132.25 Low Jul 29
Bund futures traded sharply higher Tuesday and this resulted in a break above key resistance and a bull trigger at 135.66. A clear break of this hurdle confirms a resumption of the medium-term uptrend and paves the way for a climb towards 136.77, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a clear uptrend. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 134.59, the 20-day EMA.
BOBL TECHS: (Z4) Resumes Its Uptrend
- RES 4: 121.379 1.236 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 20 price swing
- RES 3: 121.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 120.99 1.00 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 20 price swing
- RES 1: 120.650 High Oct 1
- PRICE: 120.450 @ 06:00 BST Oct 2
- SUP 1: 120.010 Low Oct 1
- SUP 2: 119.747 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 119.660 Low Sep 27
- SUP 4: 119.340 Low Sep 20 and key support
The trend condition in Bobl futures remains bullish and Tuesday’s rally reinforces this theme. The contract has traded through resistance at 120.230, the Sep 11 high and a bull trigger. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish sequence of higher lows. Sights are set on a climb towards 120.990 next, a Fibonacci retracement level. Initial firm support is seen at 119.747, the 20-day EMA.
SCHATZ TECHS: (Z4) Bull Cycle Extension
- RES 4: 107.693 1.382 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 18 price swing
- RES 3: 107.600 1.236 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 18 price swing
- RES 2: 107.450 1.00 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 18 price swing
- RES 1: 107.335 High Oct 1
- PRICE: 107.265 @ 06:10 BST Oct 2
- SUP 1: 1007.140/106.999 Low Oct 1 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 106.815 Low Sep 18
- SUP 3: 106.675 Low Sep 4
- SUP 4: 105.520 Low Sep 3 and a key support
A bull cycle in Schatz futures remains intact and the latest pullback has been a correction. Tuesday’s gains confirm a resumption of the uptrend - key resistance at 107.155, the Sep 11 high, has been breached. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and paves the way for a climb towards 107.450, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch is 106.999, the 20-day EMA.
GILT TECHS: (Z4) Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: 100.30 76.4% retracement of the Sep 17 - 30 bear leg
- RES 3: 100.30 61.8% retracement of the Sep 17 - 30 bear leg
- RES 2: 99.92 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - 30 bear leg
- RES 1: 99.38/47 20-day EMA / High Oct 1
- PRICE: 99.19 @ Close Oct 1
- SUP 1: 98.30 Low Sep 30
- SUP 2: 98.11 Low Sep 2 and a key support
- SUP 3: 98.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 97.30 1.236 Fibonacci retracement proj of the Sep 2 - 17 rally
A bear threat in Gilt futures remains present - for now - despite yesterday’s strong gains. The recent move lower has exposed the next key support at 98.11, the Sep 2 low and a bear trigger. A break of this level would strengthen the bearish theme and open 98.00. On the upside, key near-term resistance is seen at 99.38, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, however a clear break of this average is required to highlight a possible reversal.
BTP TECHS: (Z4) Uptrend Remains Intact
- RES 4: 123.40 3.500 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 3: 123.12 3.382 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 2: 122.78 3.236 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 1: 122.62 High Oct 1
- PRICE: 122.21 @ Close Oct 1
- SUP 1: 120.74/17 20-day EMA / Low Sep 19
- SUP 2: 119.32 Low Sep 9
- SUP 3: 118.85 Low Sep 4
- SUP 4: 118.16 Low Sep 2 and key support
The medium-term trend condition in BTP futures is bullish and Tuesday’s rally reinforces this theme. The contract has cleared key short-term resistance at 121.59, the Sep 17 high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. This maintains the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The break higher paves the way for a climb towards 122.78, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 120.74, the 20-day EMA.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z4) Pullback Appears To Be A Correction
- RES 4: 5256.00 1.00 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 5200.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 5138.24 0.764 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 5106.00 High Sep 30
- PRICE: 4997.00 @ 06:16 BST Oct 2
- SUP 1: 4919.85 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 4848.00/4757.00 Low Sep 13 / Low Sep 6 and 10
- SUP 3: 4813.00 Low Sep 12
- SUP 4: 4757.00 Low Sep 6 / 10 and key support
Eurostoxx 50 futures traded sharply higher last week resulting in a clear break of 5024.00, the Sep 3 high. This confirms a resumption of the bull leg that started Aug 5 and cancels a recent bearish theme. It also suggests that the latest outback is likely a correction. Scope is seen for a continuation of the trend with sights on 5138.24, a Fibonacci projection, and the 5200 handle further out. Key short-term support to watch is 4919.85, the 50-day EMA.
E-MINI S&P: (Z4) MA Studies Highlight A Dominant Uptrend
- RES 4: 5900.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 5871.77 2.0% Upper Bollinger Band
- RES 2: 5868.50 1.00 proj of the Apr 19 - Jul 16 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 1: 5830.00 High Sep 26
- PRICE: 5744.75 @ 07:17 BST Oct 2
- SUP 1: 5723.22 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 5652.72 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 5500.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 5451.25 Low Sep 6 and a bear trigger
A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest shallow pullback is considered corrective. Last week’s fresh cycle highs reinforce a bullish theme and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode setup, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Scope is seen for a climb towards 5868.50, a Fibonacci projection, and 5900.00 further out. On the downside, initial support to watch is 5723.22, the 20-day EMA. Key support lies at 5652.72, the 50-day EMA.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (Z4) Watching Resistance At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: $81.47 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- RES 3: $79.68 - High Aug 26
- RES 2: $76.92 - 50.0% retracement of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- RES 1: $75.14/45 - 50-day EMA / High Oct 1
- PRICE: $74.80 @ 07:00 BST Oct 2
- SUP 1: $69.91/68.29 - Low Oct 1 / 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $67.73 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 3: $66.12 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $63.52 - 2.00 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
Brent futures traded in a volatile manner yesterday and the contract has recovered from its latest lows. Key short-term resistance at the 50-day EMA, at $75.14, has been pierced. A clear break of this average is required to highlight a stronger reversal. The trend condition remains bearish - for now. A resumption of weakness would open $68.29, the Sep 10 low and bear trigger. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.
WTI TECHS: (X4) Trend Set-Up Remains Bearish
- RES 4: $79.69 - High Jul 18
- RES 3: $77.70 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- RES 2: $76.40 - High Aug 26
- RES 1: $71.69/72.40 - 50-day EMA / High Sep 24
- PRICE: $70.95 @ 07:13 BST Oct 2
- SUP 1: $66.33/64.61 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $63.89 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 3: $60.00 - Psychological round number
- SUP 4: $57.07 - 2.2368 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
WTI futures traded in a volatile manner Tuesday and the contract has recovered from its recent lows. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, at $71.69, remains intact. A clear breach of this EMA is required to highlight a stronger reversal that would open $76.40, the Aug 26 high. A reversal lower would refocus attention on the key support and bear trigger at $64.61, the Sep 10 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend.
GOLD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: $2708.4 - 2.764 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 3: $2697.9 - 3.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: $2690.2 - 2.618 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 1: $2685.6 - High Sep 26
- PRICE: $2648.2 @ 07:12 BST Oct 2
- SUP 1: $2622.7 - Low Sep 24
- SUP 2: $2596.8 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2547.0 - Low Sep 18
- SUP 4: $2520.1 - 50-day EMA
Gold is unchanged and bulls remain in the driver’s seat. Recent gains confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a clear uptrend and positive market sentiment. The focus is on $2690.2 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support lies at $2596.8, the 20-day EMA.
SILVER TECHS: Still Looking For Gains
- RES 4: $33.738 - 1.618 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 3: $33.297 - 1.50 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 2: $33.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $32.715 - High Sep 26
- PRICE: $31.353 @ 08:06 BST Oct 2
- SUP 1: $30.518/29.819 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: $28.535 - Low Sep 12
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 and a key support
- SUP 4: $27.180 - Low Aug 14
Bullish conditions in Silver remain intact and last week’s climb reinforces this set-up. The metal has traded through resistance at $31.754, the Jul 11 high. Note too that price has pierced $32.518, the May 20 high and a key resistance. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the medium-term uptrend and open $33.297, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support lies at $29.819, the 50-day EMA.