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MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - GBP Structure Still Bearish

Price Signal Summary – GBP Trend Structure Still Bearish

  • A sell-off in the S&P E-Minis contract on Dec 18 highlights a S/T top and a corrective cycle. The move down resulted in a breach of the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A resumption of weakness would open 5811.65, 38.2% of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg. A bull cycle in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact, however, the recent move down highlights a corrective phase and a short-term bear threat remains present - for now. Price has traded through the 50-day EMA, at 4920.51.
  • The trend structure in GBPUSD remains bearish and last week’s move lower reinforces current conditions. Key support at 1.2487, the Nov 22 low, was pierced on Dec 20. A clear breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 1.2446. Bullish conditions in USDJPY remain intact and last week’s strong gains reinforce current conditions. The breach of 156.75, the Nov 15 high and a bull trigger, confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 159.45, the Jul 12 high. The trend needle in AUDUSD continues to point south and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows.Recent weakness maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.
  • Gold traded sharply lower on Dec 18. The move down undermines a recent bullish theme. A resumption of weakness would signal scope for an extension towards the key support at $2536.9, the Nov 14 low. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position. A bearish threat in WTI futures remains present and recent gains are - for now - considered corrective. A resumption of the bear cycle would open $65.57, the Oct 1 low, and $63.73, the Sep 10 low and key support.
  • The current trend cycle in Bund futures is unchanged, it remains bearish and the contract is trading at its recent lows. 133.98, 61.8% of the Nov 6 - Dec 2 bull cycle, has been breached, paving the way for a move towards 133.22. A strong bearish theme in Gilt futures remains in play and last week’s extension reinforces current conditions. The move down has resulted in a breach of key short-term support at 93.40, the Nov 18 low. The break of this level highlights a stronger reversal.

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Price Signal Summary – GBP Trend Structure Still Bearish

  • A sell-off in the S&P E-Minis contract on Dec 18 highlights a S/T top and a corrective cycle. The move down resulted in a breach of the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A resumption of weakness would open 5811.65, 38.2% of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg. A bull cycle in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact, however, the recent move down highlights a corrective phase and a short-term bear threat remains present - for now. Price has traded through the 50-day EMA, at 4920.51.
  • The trend structure in GBPUSD remains bearish and last week’s move lower reinforces current conditions. Key support at 1.2487, the Nov 22 low, was pierced on Dec 20. A clear breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 1.2446. Bullish conditions in USDJPY remain intact and last week’s strong gains reinforce current conditions. The breach of 156.75, the Nov 15 high and a bull trigger, confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 159.45, the Jul 12 high. The trend needle in AUDUSD continues to point south and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows.Recent weakness maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.
  • Gold traded sharply lower on Dec 18. The move down undermines a recent bullish theme. A resumption of weakness would signal scope for an extension towards the key support at $2536.9, the Nov 14 low. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position. A bearish threat in WTI futures remains present and recent gains are - for now - considered corrective. A resumption of the bear cycle would open $65.57, the Oct 1 low, and $63.73, the Sep 10 low and key support.
  • The current trend cycle in Bund futures is unchanged, it remains bearish and the contract is trading at its recent lows. 133.98, 61.8% of the Nov 6 - Dec 2 bull cycle, has been breached, paving the way for a move towards 133.22. A strong bearish theme in Gilt futures remains in play and last week’s extension reinforces current conditions. The move down has resulted in a breach of key short-term support at 93.40, the Nov 18 low. The break of this level highlights a stronger reversal.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

Keep reading...Show less