MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - GBP/USD Breaches Key S/T Support

Price Signal Summary – GBP/USD Breaches Key S/T Support

• The short-term condition in S&P E-Minis remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. Price last week cleared key short-term support at 3960.75, Mar 2 low to confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that has been in place since Feb 2. The Eurostoxx 50 futures move lower Wednesday marks a resumption of the current downtrend. The contract traded through Monday’s low and this reinforces last week’s breach of a key support at the base of a bull channel drawn from the Oct 13 low.
• GBPUSD has pulled back from the Tuesday high of 1.2204 and this has resulted in a breach of key short-term support at 1.2043, the 20-day EMA. A continuation lower would further undermine the recent bullish theme and instead signal scope for a deeper retracement. Recent weakness in USDJPY highlights potential for a deeper corrective pullback and the pair is trading at this week’s lows. 132.29, the Mar 13 low, represents an important short-term support. It was pierced yesterday, a clear break would resume the bear leg and open 131.31, a Fibonacci retracement point. The AUDUSD trend condition remains bearish - recent gains appear to be a correction. The Mar 7 sell-off reinforced and strengthened a bearish theme. The break lower maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and price has breached key support at 0.6629, the Dec 20 low.
• Gold remains bullish and the metal traded higher yesterday. Resistance at $1858.3, the Mar 6 high, has recently been cleared and the latest rally signals scope for an extension towards $1959.7, the Feb 2 high and a key near-term resistance. WTI futures remain vulnerable and yesterday’s move lower resulted in the break of key support at $70.86, the Dec 9 low. The move down confirms a resumption of the medium-term downtrend and reinforces current bearish conditions.
• Bund futures remain volatile and the contract rallied Wednesday, trading through resistance at 137.24, Monday’s high. A continuation higher would pave the way for strength towards 138.00 next. Gilt futures remain volatile and the contract recovered from yesterday’s 103.12 low. For now, the outlook is bullish and a resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards 106.88, the Feb 6 high on the continuation chart.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Key Short-Term Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.0836 61.8% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 8 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.0803 High Feb 14 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.0775 50.0% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 15 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.0651/0760 50-day EMA / High Mar 15 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.0605 @ 06:05 GMT Mar 16
• SUP 1: 1.0516 Low Mar 15
• SUP 2: 1.0484 Low Jan 6 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.0439 Trendline support drawn from the Sep 28 2022 low
• SUP 4: 1.0394 Low Dec 1

EURUSD traded sharply lower Wednesday. The pair did pierce key short-term support at 1.0525, the Mar 8 low. A clear break of this level is required to reinstate a bearish theme that would open 1.0484, the Jan 6 low and 1.0439, a trendline support drawn from the Sep 28 2022 low. Yesterday’s high of 1.0760 marks a key short-term resistance - a break of this level is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

GBPUSD TECHS: Key Resistance Defined At 1.2204

• RES 4: 1.2401 High Feb 2
• RES 3: 1.2296 76.4% retracement of the Jan 23 - Mar 8 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.2269 High Feb 14
• RES 1: 1.2204 High Mar 14 and a bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2069 @ 06:28 GMT Mar 16
• SUP 1: 1.2011/1908 Low Mar 15 / 10
• SUP 2: 1.1895 200-dma
• SUP 3: 1.1804 Low Mar 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.1763 2.0% 10-dma envelope

GBPUSD has pulled back from the Tuesday high of 1.2204 and this has resulted in a breach of key short-term support at 1.2043, the 20-day EMA. A continuation lower would further undermine the recent bullish theme and instead signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, clearance of 1.2204 is required to reinstate a bullish theme. This would signal open 1.2269, the Feb 14 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Pierces Key Support

• RES 4: 0.8925 High Mar 7 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8908 Trendline drawn from the Feb 3 high
• RES 2: 0.8890 High Mar 10
• RES 1: 0.8844 High Mar 15
• PRICE: 0.8786 @ 06:41 GMT Mar 16
• SUP 1: 0.8719 Low Mar 15 and key support
• SUP 2: 0.8712 61.8% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull leg
• SUP 3: 0.8691 Low Dec 19
• SUP 4: 0.8649 76.4% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull leg

EURGBP traded lower Wednesday, marking an extension of the pullback from 0.8925, the Mar 7 high. The cross has breached support at 0.8755, the Feb 28 low and has pierced 0.8722, the Jan 19 low. Clearance of this level would leave the 0.8700 handle exposed. The cross has bounced from yesterday’s low. Initial firm resistance is seen at yesterday’s high of 0.8844. A breach of this resistance is required to ease bearish pressure.

USDJPY TECHS: Bear Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 137.91 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 136.99 High Mar 10
• RES 2: 135.11 High Mar 15
• RES 1: 134.74 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 132.89 @ 06:55 GMT Mar 16
• SUP 1: 132.22 Low Mar 15
• SUP 2: 131.31 61.8% retracement of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 3: 129.81 Low Feb 10
• SUP 4: 128.09 Low Feb 2

Recent weakness in USDJPY highlights potential for a deeper corrective pullback and the pair is trading at this week’s lows. 132.29, the Mar 13 low, represents an important short-term support. It was pierced yesterday, a clear break would resume the bear leg and open 131.31, a Fibonacci retracement point. For bulls, a resumption of strength would open the 136.00 handle and signal scope for a test of the bull trigger at 137.91, the Mar 8 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Impulsive Bear Leg

• RES 4: 143.46 20-day EMA
• RES 3: 142.88 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 142.15 Low Feb 24
• RES 1: 141.42 Intraday high
• PRICE: 140.91 @ 07:03 GMT Mar 16
• SUP 1: 139.48 Low Mar 15 and today’s bear trigger
• SUP 2: 139.06 Low Jan 20
• SUP 3: 137.92 Low Jan 19
• SUP 4: 137.39 Low Jan 3 and a key support

EURJPY traded sharply lower Wednesday and the cross cleared Monday’s low of 141.37. The breach of this key short-term support resumes the downleg that started Mar 2. The move lower signals scope for an extension towards the 138.00 handle. A clear break of 139.56, the Feb 10 low (pierced), would strengthen bearish conditions. Initial firm resistance is seen at 142.15, the Feb 24 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 0.6865 High Feb 22
• RES 3: 0.6792 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 0.6784 High Mar 1 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6723 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6661 @ 08:05 GMT Mar 16
• SUP 1: 0.6547 61.8% retracement of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 2: 0.6500 Round number support
• SUP 3: 0.6425 2.00 projection of the Feb 2 - 6 - 14 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6403 76.4% retracement of the Oct - Feb bull cycle

The AUDUSD trend condition remains bearish - recent gains appear to be a correction. The Mar 7 sell-off reinforced and strengthened a bearish theme. The break lower maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and price has breached key support at 0.6629, the Dec 20 low. This signals potential for weakness towards 0.6547, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 0.6784, the Mar 1 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Phase Still In Play

• RES 4: 1.4000 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 1.3977 High Oct 13
• RES 2: 1.3898 High Oct 14
• RES 1: 1.3814/3862 High Mar 15 / 10 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3730 @ 08:01 GMT Mar 16
• SUP 1: 1.3652 Low Mar 14
• SUP 2: 1.3555 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3515 Low Feb 22
• SUP 4: 1.3442 Low Feb 20 / 21

USDCAD maintains a firmer tone. The recent move lower appears to be a correction and this is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. Last week’s rally strengthened the bullish theme. Price cleared the Dec 16 high of 1.3705 and traded above 1.3800. Scope is seen for gains towards 1.3977, the Oct 13 high. Initial support is seen at 1.3652, Tuesday’s low. Key short-term resistance and the bull trigger is at 1.3862, the Mar 10 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Bullish But Volatile

• RES 4: 140.00 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 139.40 High Jan 18
• RES 2: 138.40 High Feb 2
• RES 1: 138.00 Round number resistance
• PRICE: 136.28 @ 05:14 GMT Mar 16
• SUP 1: 135.65 50.0% retracement of Wednesday’s rally
• SUP 2: 135.45 High Feb 14
• SUP 3: 134.30 High Feb 24
• SUP 4: 133.61/33 20-day EMA / Low Mar 15

Bund futures remain volatile and the contract rallied Wednesday, trading through resistance at 137.24, Monday’s high. A continuation higher would pave the way for strength towards 138.00 next. Wednesday’s gains leave support 133.61 intact, the 20-day EMA. A reversal lower and a break of this support is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement. For now though the outlook remains bullish but volatile.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Watching Support

• RES 4: 120.220 Low Dec 6 2022
• RES 3: 120.00 Psychological resistance
• RES 2: 119.580 High Dec 9 2022 (cont)
• RES 1: 119.190 High Mar 15
• PRICE: 118.060@ 05:27 GMT Mar 16
• SUP 1: 117.920 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 117.490 38.2% retracement of the Mar 6 - 15 rally
• SUP 3: 116.965 50.0% retracement of the Mar 6 - 15 rally
• SUP 4: 116.535/370 20-day EMA / Low Mar 15 and key support

Bobl futures rallied sharply higher yesterday and breached Tuesday’s high. The outlook remains bullish and volatile. A continuation higher would pave the way for gains towards 119.580, the Dec 9 2022 high on the continuation chart. Further out, scope would be seen for a climb to the 120.00 handle. On the downside, key short-term support is seen at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 116.535.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 107.000 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 106.800 Low Dec 5 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: 106.680 High Dec 13 2022 (cont)
• RES 1: 106.360 High Mar 15 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 105.840 @ 05:41GMT Mar 16
• SUP 1: 105.745 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 105.590 38.2% retracement of the Mar 8 - 15 rally
• SUP 3: 105.353 50.0% retracement of the Mar 8 - 15 rally
• SUP 4: 105.150/030 20-day EMA / Low Mar 15 and key support

Schatz futures rallied sharply higher yesterday and breached Tuesday’s peak. The outlook - for now - remains bullish in a volatile environment. A continuation higher would open 106.680, the Dec 5 2022 high on the continuation chart. Further out, scope would be seen for a climb to the 107.00 handle. On the downside, key short-term support is seen at the 20-day EMA. The average intersects at 105.150.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Key Support Lies At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 108.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 107.78 High Feb 2 and a key resistance (cont)
• RES 2: 106.88 High Feb 6 (cont)
• RES 1: 106.23 High Mar 15
• PRICE: 1005.32 @ Close Mar 15
• SUP 1: 104.57 23.6% retracement of the entire rally from Feb 28
• SUP 2: 103.54 38.2% retracement of the entire rally from Feb 28
• SUP 3: 103.12 Yesterday’s low
• SUP 4: 102.03 20-day EMA

Gilt futures remain volatile and the contract recovered from yesterday’s 103.12 low. For now, the outlook is bullish and a resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards 106.88, the Feb 6 high on the continuation chart. On the downside, firm support is seen at the 20-day EMA, where a break would strengthen any developing bearish threat. The average intersects at 102.03.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Remains Above Support

• RES 4: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 3: 116.49 76.4% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 2 downleg (cont)
• RES 2: 116.33 High Feb 9 (cont)
• RES 1: 115.88 High Mar 13
• PRICE: 115.52 @ Close Mar 15
• SUP 1: 113.02 High Mar 9 and a gap low on the daily chart
• SUP 2: 111.79 Low Mar 9
• SUP 3: 110.79 Low Mar 7
• SUP 4: 110.25 Low Mar 2 and the bear trigger

BTP futures traded higher Monday to extend the reversal from 110.25, the Mar 2 low. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of a key short-term resistance at 113.43, the Feb 24 high. The move strengthens current bullish conditions and a continuation higher would open 116.49, a Fibonacci retracement. Tuesday’s pullback appears to be a correction. Support to watch lies at 113.02, the Mar 9 high and a gap low on the daily chart.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H3) Bear Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 4409.50 High Nov 18 2021 and a major resistance (cont)
• RES 3: 4381.50 High Jan 5 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: 4328.00 High Mar 6 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4166.70/4161.50 50- and 20-day EMA values
• PRICE: 4106.00 @ 06:03 GMT Mar 16
• SUP 1: 4015.00 Low Mar 15
• SUP 2: 4000.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 3955.00 Low Jan 5
• SUP 4: 3916.20 38.2% retracement of the Sep 29 - Mar 6 bull phase

The Eurostoxx 50 futures move lower Wednesday marks a resumption of the current downtrend. The contract traded through Monday’s low and this reinforces last week’s breach of a key support at the base of a bull channel drawn from the Oct 13 low. The trendline break highlights a reversal of the uptrend that started late September 2022. The focus is on the 4000.00 handle next. Initial firm resistance is at 4212.50, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P (M3): Trend Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 4244.00 High Feb 2 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4200.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4119.50 High Mar 6
• RES 1: 3972.50/4031.46 High Mar 14 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 3926.50 @ 07:07 GMT Mar 16
• SUP 1: 3839.25 Low Mar 13
• SUP 2: 3822.00 Low Dec 22 and a key support
• SUP 3: 3778.00 Low Nov 3
• SUP 4: 3724.86 76.4% retracement of the Oct 13 - Feb 2 bull cycle

The short-term condition in S&P E-Minis remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. Price last week cleared key short-term support at 3960.75, Mar 2 low to confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that has been in place since Feb 2. The move lower signals scope for an extension towards 3822.00 next, the Dec 22 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 4031.46, the 50-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K3) Clears A Key Support

• RES 4: $88.78 - High Jan 23 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $84.00/86.75 - High Mar 9 / 7 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $81.85 - 20-day EMA
• RES 1: $78.84 - Feb 6 low
• PRICE: $74.39 @ 06:57 GMT Mar 16
• SUP 1: $71.67 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 2: $71.30 - 1.00 proj of the Nov 7 - Dec 12 - Jan 23 price swing
• SUP 3: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $65.72 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)

Brent futures remain vulnerable and the contract traded lower again Wednesday. Price has breached a key support at $76.04, the Dec 12 low and a key medium term chart point. The break confirms a resumption of the medium-term downtrend and paves the way for weakness towards $71.30, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is $78.84, the Feb 6 low. Gains would be considered corrective.

WTI TECHS: (J3) Clears A Key Medium-Term Support

• RES 4: $82.89 - High Jan 23 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $78.06/80.94 - High Mar 9 / 7 and key resistance
• RES 2: $75.77 - 20-day EMA
• RES 1: $72.56 - High Mar 15
• PRICE: $68.02 @ 07:05 GMT Mar 16
• SUP 1: $65.60 - Low Dec 3 2021 (cont)
• SUP 2: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont) and a key support
• SUP 3: $60.44 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 23 - Feb 6 - Mar 7 price swing
• SUP 4: $58.02 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 23 - Feb 6 - Mar 7 price swing

WTI futures remain vulnerable and yesterday’s move lower resulted in the break of key support at $70.86, the Dec 9 low. The move down confirms a resumption of the medium-term downtrend and reinforces current bearish conditions. Note too that price has cleared the psychological $70.00 handle. Attention is on $65.60, the Dec 3 2021 low (cont). Initial resistance is at $72.56, yesterday’s high.

GOLD TECHS: Approaching Key Resistance

• RES 4: $2000.00 Psychological round number
• RES 3: $1987.4 - 3.236 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - Nov 3 price swing
• RES 2: $1959.7 - High Feb 2 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $1937.4 - High Mar 15
• PRICE: $1914.0 @ 07:22 GMT Mar 16
• SUP 1: $1871.6 - Low Mar 13
• SUP 2: $1851.9 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1804.9 - Low Feb 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $1787.3 - 50.0% retracement of the Sep 28 - Feb 2 bull leg

Gold remains bullish and the metal traded higher yesterday. Resistance at $1858.3, the Mar 6 high, has recently been cleared and the latest rally signals scope for an extension towards $1959.7, the Feb 2 high and a key near-term resistance. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at $1851.9, the 50-day EMA. A break of this level is required to signal a top - this would expose the bear trigger at $1804.9, the Feb 28 low.

SILVER TECHS: Testing Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $23.520 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 downleg
• RES 3: $23.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $22.829 - 61.8% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 downleg
• RES 1: $22.385 - High Mar 15
• PRICE: $21865 @ 08:09 GMT Mar 16
• SUP 1: $20.591/19.904 - Low Mar 13 / 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $19.416 - Low Nov 4
• SUP 3: $19.232 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep 1 - Feb 2 bull leg
• SUP 4: $18.835 - Low Nov 3 2022

Silver remains firm having reversed sharply higher from last week’s low of $19.904, on Mar 10. The metal is testing resistance at the 50-day EMA - the average intersects at $21.846. A clear breach of the average would strengthen bullish conditions and signal scope for a climb towards $22.829, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, Monday’s low at $20.591 marks initial support ahead of the bear trigger at $19.904.