MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - GBP/USD Snaps Trendline

MNI (LONDON) - Price Signal Summary – GBP/USD Snaps Trendline

• S&P E-Minis traded lower between Jul 16 - 25, resulting in a break of the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The breach does highlight a short-term bearish threat - a corrective cycle. Yesterday’s move lower and today’ extension reinforces the short-term bearish theme. A bear threat in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains present and the contract traded lower Thursday. Price has recently breached 4846.00, the Apr 19 low. The clear break of this level paves the way for an extension towards 4711.10.
• GBPUSD remains in a bear-mode condition and the pair traded lower Thursday. The move down has resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA - at 1.2790 - and a trendline at 1.2759, drawn from the Apr 22 low. USDJPY remains bearish and this week’s sell-off reinforces this condition. The move down confirms a resumption of the downtrend and price has traded through a key chart point at the 150.00 handle. A bearish theme is AUDUSD remains intact and the pair is trading closer to its latest lows. Recent weakness has resulted in a break of support at 0.6576, the Jun 10 low. This paves the way for a move towards 0.6466, a Fibonacci retracement point.
• Gold has traded higher this week. The recent move down appears to have been a correction. The yellow metal did manage to pierce support at the 50-day EMA - at $2370.3. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. A bear threat in WTI futures remains present and Wednesday’s strong bounce is considered corrective - for now. The recent breach of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, reinforces a bear theme.
• The bull cycle in Bund futures remains in play and the contract has traded higher this week. The move has resulted in a break above 133.21, the Jun 14 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this level confirms a resumption of the uptrend note that the 134.00 handle has been cleared. Gilt futures have traded higher this week and the uptrend accelerated Thursday. This week’s climb marks an extension of the reversal on Jul 26 and has resulted in a break of 99.23, the Jun 21 high. Clearance of this level confirms a resumption of the bull cycle.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains In Play 

• RES 4: 1.0981 High Mar 8 and a key resistance  
• RES 3: 1.0964 High Mar 13
• RES 2: 1.0897/0948 High Jul 23 / 17 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.0835/1.0870 20-day EMA / High Jul 25 / 29
• PRICE: 1.0797 @ 06:03 BST Aug 2
• SUP 1: 1.0778 Low Aug 01 
• SUP 2: 1.0774 61.8% retracement of the Jun 26 - Jul 17 bull phase
• SUP 3: 1.0733 76.4% retracement of the Jun 26 - Jul 17 bull phase
• SUP 4: 1.0666 Low Jun 26 

EURUSD remains in a bear-mode condition for now and price traded lower Thursday, confirming a resumption of the current bear leg. The pair has breached the 50-day EMA and this signals scope for a deeper retracement towards 1.0774, a Fibonacci retracement. A clear reversal higher would highlight the end of the current corrective cycle and open key resistance at 1.0948, the Jul 17 high. Initial firm resistance is 1.0870, the Jul 25 / 29 high.   

GBPUSD TECHS: Breaches Trendline Support   

• RES 4: 1.3044 High Jul 17 and the bull trigger   
• RES 3: 1.2938 High Jul 24
• RES 2: 1.2863 High Aug 1 
• RES 1: 1.2790 50-day EMA 
• PRICE: 1.2730 @ 06:17 BST Aug 2
• SUP 1: 1.2713/1.2700 Intraday low / Round number support
• SUP 2: 1.2672 50.0 retracement of the Apr 22 - Jul 17 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 1.2613 Low Jun 27 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 1.2584 50.0 retracement of the Apr 22 - Jul 17 bull cycle 

GBPUSD remains in a bear-mode condition and the pair traded lower Thursday. The move down has resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA - at 1.2790 - and a trendline at 1.2759, drawn from the Apr 22 low. The clear break of the EMA and the trendline, suggests scope for an extension towards the 1.2700 handle next, and 1.2672, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance to watch is at 1.2790, the 50-day EMA.         

EURGBP TECHS: Approaching Key Short-Term Resistance                              

• RES 4: 0.8541 High May 31  
• RES 3: 0.8525 High Jun 6
• RES 2: 0.8499 High Jul 1 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.8486 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 0.8483 @ 06:34 BST Aug 2
• SUP 1: 0.8433 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.8393/83 Low Jul 25 / 17 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8366 2.236 proj of the Apr 23 - 30 - May 9 price swing 
• SUP 4: 0.8333 1.0% 10-dma envelope

EURGBP traded higher Thursday and the cross is firmer again, today. This week’s gains have exposed resistance at 0.8499, the Jul 1 high and a key hurdle for bulls. Clearance of this level would undermine the recent bearish theme and highlight a potential short-term reversal. Note that price is also above the 50-day EMA. Initial support to watch lies at 0.8433, the 20-day EMA.     

USDJPY TECHS: Bearish Impulsive Wave    

• RES 4: 157.86 High Jul 19   
• RES 3: 156.44 50-day EMA  
• RES 2: 155.25 High Jul 30   
• RES 1: 151.94 Low Jul 25   
• PRICE: 148.99 @ 06:57 BST Aug 2
• SUP 1: 148.51 Low Aug 1
• SUP 2: 148.04 Low Mar 13 / 8
• SUP 3: 147.24/146.49 Low 
• SUP 4: 145.37 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 ‘23 - Jul 3 upleg

USDJPY remains bearish and this week’s sell-off reinforces this condition. The move down confirms a resumption of the downtrend and price has traded through a key chart point at the 150.00 handle, reinforcing a bearish theme. 148.54, 61.8% of the Dec 28 ‘23 - Jul 3 upleg, has been pierced. A resumption of weakness would open 148.04, the Mar 15 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 155.22, the Jul 30 high.   

EURJPY TECHS: Bears Remains In The Driver’s Seat   

• RES 4: 171.09 High Jul 23
• RES 3: 169.55 50-day EMA   
• RES 2: 168.01 High Jul 26      
• RES 1: 162.89/164.83 High Aug 1 / Low Jul 25 
• PRICE: 161.11 @ 07:06 BST Aug 2
• SUP 1: 160.65 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 160.22 Low Mar 11  
• SUP 3: 158.92 Low Feb 7 
• SUP 4: 158.47 76.4% retracement of the Dec 7 ‘23 - Jul 11 bull cycle

The sharp sell-off in EURJPY this week, reinforces a bearish theme. The move down since Jul 11 has resulted in the break of a trendline drawn from Dec 7 low last year, and a breach of the 50-day EMA. Moving average studies are also highlighting a bear cross. This signals scope for an extension towards 160.22, the Mar 11 low. On the upside, a key short-term resistance is seen at 168.01, Jul 26 high. Initial firm resistance is 164.83, Jul 25 low. 

AUDUSD TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Lows   

• RES 4: 0.6702 High Jul 22     
• RES 3: 0.6635 50-day EMA                
• RES 2: 0.6620 Low Jun 28 
• RES 1: 0.6583 High Jul 25  
• PRICE: 0.6525 @ 07:53 BST Aug 2
• SUP 1: 0.6480 Low Jul 31
• SUP 2: 0.6466 76.4% retracement of the Apr 19 - Jul 11 bull phase   
• SUP 3: 0.6441 Low Apr 23  
• SUP 4: 0.6407 Low Apr 22 

A bearish theme is AUDUSD remains intact and the pair is trading closer to its latest lows. Recent weakness has resulted in a break of support at 0.6576, the Jun 10 low. This paves the way for a move towards 0.6466, a Fibonacci retracement point. From a near-term perspective, the short-term trend is oversold. A recovery would allow this condition to unwind. Key short-term resistance is seen at 0.6635, the 50-day EMA.   

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Trend Structure 

• RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13, 2022
• RES 3: 1.3951 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance    
• RES 1: 1.3889 High Aug 1
• PRICE: 1.3863 @ 08:01 BST Aug 2
• SUP 1: 1.3766 Low Aug 1   
• SUP 2: 1.3766 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 1.3718 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.3367 Low Jul 17 

Trend conditions in USDCAD remain bullish and Thursday’s gains reinforce this condition. Recent gains resulted in a break of 1.3792, the Jun 11 high, and more recently, a print above key resistance at 1.3846, the Apr 16 high. The trend condition is overbought, however, the break of 1.3846 strengthens the bull theme and opens 1.3899, the Nov 1 ‘23 high and a key resistance. Firm support lies at 1.3718, the 50-day EMA. 

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U4) Continues To Appreciate 

• RES 4: 135.88 High Feb 2 (cont)           
• RES 3: 135.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 134.78 2.382 projection of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 1 price swing
• RES 1: 134.64 Intraday high                      
• PRICE: 134.45 @ 05:44 BST Aug 2
• SUP 1: 133.36 Low Jul 31           
• SUP 2: 132.59 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 132.11/131.62 50-day EMA / Low Jul 22 and a key support   
• SUP 4: 131.39 Low Jul 15  

A bull cycle in Bund futures remains in play and the contract has traded higher this week. The move has resulted in a break above 133.21, the Jun 14 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this level confirms a resumption of the uptrend note that the 134.00 handle has been cleared. Sights are on 134.78, a Fibonacci projection. First key support is 132.59, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.    

BOBL TECHS: (U4) Northbound                                           

• RES 4: 118.480 3.00 proj of the May 31 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 3: 118.100 High Apr 12 (cont)   
• RES 2: 118.060 2.618 proj of the May 31 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing   
• RES 1: 118.030 Intraday high               
• PRICE: 117.930 @ 05.53 BST Aug 2
• SUP 1: 117.350/116.882 Low Jul 31 / 20-day EMA     
• SUP 2: 116.320 Low Jul 22   
• SUP 3: 115.980 Low Jul 10 / 11 
• SUP 4: 115.530 Low Jul and the key short-term support

Bobl futures have traded higher this week. This has resulted in a break of key resistance at the Jun 14 high of 117.160. A medium-term bull cycle remains in play and the clear breach of 117.160 reinforces current conditions. This opens 118.060 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, a reversal would instead refocus attention on 116.320, the Jul 22 low and key support. Initial firm support is 116.882, the 20-day EMA.             

SCHATZ TECHS: (U4) Heading North  

• RES 4: 106.620 High Jan 4 (cont)  
• RES 3: 106.359 3.382 projection of the May 24 - Jun 4 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 106.308 3.236 projection of the May 24 - Jun 4 - 7 price swing 
• RES 1: 106.290 Intraday high  
• PRICE: 106.260 @ 06:07 BST Aug 2
• SUP 1: 106.040/844 Low Jul 31 / 20-day EMA       
• SUP 2: 105.630 Low Jul 22  
• SUP 3: 105.495 Low Jul 11 
• SUP 4: 105.390 Low Jul 5 and a key support 

The current uptrend in Schatz futures remains intact. The contract has traded through resistance at 105.975, the Jun 14 high. The clear break of this hurdle confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started May 24. Sights are on 106.308 a Fibonacci projection. Firm support to watch lies at 105.807, the 20-day EMA, and 105.844, the Jul 22 low. A clear break of this average would be seen as a bearish development.                       

GILT TECHS: (U4) Uptrend Accelerates                                          

• RES 4: 101.78 2.236 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing 
• RES 3: 101.18 2.00 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 2: 101.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 100.61 Intraday high   
• PRICE: 100.57 @ 08:23 BST Aug 2 
• SUP 1: 99.23 High Jun 21       
• SUP 2: 98.47/97.46 20-day EMA / Low Jul 26     
• SUP 3: 96.96 Low Jul 3 
• SUP 4: 96.57 Low Jul 1 and a key support 

Gilt futures have traded higher this week and the uptrend accelerated Thursday. This week’s climb marks an extension of the reversal on Jul 26 and has resulted in a break of 99.23, the Jun 21 high. Clearance of this level confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started May 29 and signals scope for a climb towards the 101.00 handle next. Initial support lies at 99.23. A pullback would allow an overbought trend condition to unwind.    

BTP TECHS: (U4) Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 120.85 2.236 proj  of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
• RES 3: 120.20 2.00 proj  of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
• RES 2: 119.55 1.764 proj  of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
• RES 1: 119.30 High Aug 1  
• PRICE: 119.14 @ Close Aug 1
• SUP 1: 117.94/37 20- and 50-day EMA values   
• SUP 2: 116.07 Low Jul 8 
• SUP 3: 114.72 Low Jul 2 
• SUP 4: 114.35 Low Jun 11 and key support 

BTP futures have traded higher this week. The medium-term trend remains positive following recent strong gains. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards 119.55, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is seen at 117.94, the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA lies at 117.37 A clear break of both averages would instead highlight a bearish threat and a potential reversal.                         

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U4) Bear Cycle Extends     

• RES 4: 5087.00 High Jul 12 and a key resistance   
• RES 3: 5012.00 High Jul 16        
• RES 2: 4951.89/4980.00 50-day EMA / High Jul 23 
• RES 1: 4860.00 Low Jun 14    
• PRICE: 4740.00 @ 06:38 BST Aug 2
• SUP 1: 4737.00 Low Aug 2
• SUP 2: 4711.10 1.382 proj of the Jun 6 - 14 - Jul 12 price swing
• SUP 3: 4679.00 1.50 proj of the Jun 6 - 14 - Jul 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 4599.00 High Jan 2 (cont)

A bear threat in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains present and the contract traded lower Thursday. Price has recently breached 4846.00, the Apr 19 low. The clear break of this level paves the way for an extension towards 4711.10 next, a Fibonacci projection. Note that price has also pierced the 200-dma, reinforcing a bearish theme. Initial firm resistance to watch is 4951.89, the 50-day EMA.           

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U4) Bearish Corrective Cycle    

• RES 4: 5741.34 3.382 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing 
• RES 3: 5721.25 High Jul 16 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 5664.00 High Jul 18  
• RES 1: 5600.75 High Aug 1 
• PRICE: 5584.50 @ 14:33 BST Aug 1
• SUP 1: 5421.00 Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 5370.62 50.0% retracement of the Apr 19 - Jul 16 bull leg
• SUP 3: 5353.41 3.0% 10-dma envelope  
• SUP 4: 5267.75 Low May 31 and key support

S&P E-Minis traded lower between Jul 16 - 25, resulting in a break of the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The breach does highlight a short-term bearish threat - a corrective cycle. Yesterday’s move lower and today’ extension reinforces the short-term bearish theme and this has opened 5370.62, a Fibonacci retracement. Resistance to watch is 5600.75, the Aug 1 high. Clearance of this level would highlight a bullish break and signal the end of the correction.  

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V4) Bear Threat Still Present 

• RES 4: $89.34 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 3: $88.44 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $84.66/87.05 - High Jul 18 / 5
• RES 1: $82.26 - 50-day EMA   
• PRICE: $80.11 @ 07:04 BST Aug 2
• SUP 1: $77.95 - Low Jul 30 
• SUP 2: $76.42 - Low Jun 4 and a key support 
• SUP 3: $74.96 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $73.31 - Low Dec 13 2023

A bear cycle in Brent futures remains in play and the latest bounce appears to be a correction - for now. The recent breach of the 20- and 50 EMAs continues to suggest scope for an extension lower near-term. This has opened $76.42, the Jun 4 low and the next key support. Note that the  medium-term trend remains bullish. A reversal higher would refocus attention on $87.05, the Jul 5 high and a key resistance.  

WTI TECHS: (U4) Bearish Cycle Remains Intact

• RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $87.43 - 1.00 proj of the Dec 13 ‘23 - Apr 12 - Jun 4 swing 
• RES 2: $84.36 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $78.71/83.58 - 50-day EMA / High Jul 5   
• PRICE: $76.88 @ 07:13 BST Aug 2
• SUP 1: $74.59 - Low Jul 30 
• SUP 2: $72.23 - Low Jun 4 and a key support 
• SUP 3: $70.73 - Low Feb 5 
• SUP 4: $69.16 - Low Dec 13 2023

A bear threat in WTI futures remains present and Wednesday’s strong bounce is considered corrective - for now. The recent breach of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, reinforces a bear theme. A continuation lower would open $72.23, the Jun 4 low and the next key support. For bulls, a reversal higher would instead refocus attention on the key resistance points at $83.58, the Jul 5 high, and $84.36, the Apr 12 high.  

GOLD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish

• RES 4: $2575.4 - 3.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing   
• RES 3: $2528.4 - 3.00 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2500.0 - Round number resistance 
• RES 1: $2483.7 - High Jul 17 and the bull trigger                  
• PRICE: $2465.0 @ 07:19 BST Aug 2
• SUP 1: $2401.4/2353.2 - 20-day EMA / Low Jul 25
• SUP 2: $2286.9 - Low Jun 7
• SUP 3: $2277.4 - Low May 3 and a pivot support 
• SUP 4: $2228.6 - Low Apr 1

Gold has traded higher this week. The recent move down appears to have been a correction. The yellow metal did manage to pierce support at the 50-day EMA - at $2370.3. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards $2277.4, the May 3 low and a key support. For bulls, this week’s gains are constructive. Sights are on $2483.7, the Jul 17 high, and a bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle resumes the uptrend.      

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Short-Term Condition 

• RES 4: $35.226 - 50.0% of the Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 bear leg        
• RES 3: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
• RES 2: $32.518 - High May 20 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $29.322/31.754 - 50-day EMA /  High Jul 11                
• PRICE: $28.868 @ 08:04 BST Aug 2
• SUP 1: $27.311 - Low Jul 29
• SUP 2: $27.011 - Low May 8
• SUP 3: $26.018 - Low May 2 and a key support  
• SUP 4: $24.328 - Low Mar 27

A bearish cycle in Silver remains in play despite this week’s gains. The metal slipped through supports last week, extending the negative response to the recent break of the 50-day EMA at $29.322. Note too that support at $28.573, the Jun 26 low, has been cleared. This paves the way for an extension towards $26.018, the May 2 low and a key support. A reversal would refocus attention on $31.754 initially, the Jul 11 high.