MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - GBPUSD Approaching Key Resistance

Price Signal Summary – GBPUSD Approaching Key Resistance

• S&P E-Minis traded higher Wednesday and the contract has once again moved to levels above the 50-day EMA. The average intersects at 4021.12. Attention is on resistance at 4073.75, the Mar 22 high. Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher Wednesday. The contract has cleared resistance at 4164.00, the Mar 22 high. This cancels a recent bearish threat and confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started Mar 20.
• EURUSD is holding on to this week’s gains and price remains above 1.0713, the Mar 24 low. Key short-term resistance is at 1.0930, the Mar 23 high. A break of this level would reinstate the recent bull theme and signal scope for a climb towards 1.1033, the Feb 2 high. EURGBP is unchanged. The cross remains below 0.8866, the Mar 23 high. Recent gains, between Mar 15 - 23, highlight a bullish picture and attention is on a key short-term trendline resistance at 0.8883. The trendline is drawn from the Feb 3 high and a break would strengthen bullish conditions. EURJPY traded sharply higher Wednesday and topped 143.63, the Mar 22 high. This level represents a key short-term resistance. A clear break would reinstate a bullish theme and signal scope for a climb towards 145.57, the Mar 2 high and a key resistance.
• Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the recent short-term pullback is considered corrective. Note too that price action since Mar 20 appears to be a pennant - a continuation pattern. This reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for an extension higher near-term. WTI futures continue to trade closer to this week’s highs. Price has breached resistance at the 20-day EMA which intersects at $72.64. The break is a short-term bullish development and a continuation higher would expose the 50-day EMA, at $74.96.
• Bund futures traded lower Wednesday as the contract extended the pullback from 139.54, the Mar 24 high. Price has tested a key support at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 135.57. Gilt futures traded lower Wednesday. This week’s move down has resulted in a break of support at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 103.74. The average represents an important short-term support and a clear break would signal scope for a continuation lower near-term, towards 102.84, the Mar 22 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Support Remains Intact - For Now

• RES 4: 1.1076 High Apr 1 2022
• RES 3: 1.1033 High Feb 2 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.0940 High Feb 3
• RES 1: 1.0871/0930 High Mar 29 / 23
• PRICE: 1.0839 @ 05:49 BST Mar 30
• SUP 1: 1.0736/13 20-day EMA / Low Mar 24
• SUP 2: 1.0693 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.0608 Low Mar 17
• SUP 4: 1.0516 Low Mar 15 and the bear trigger

EURUSD is holding on to this week’s gains and price remains above 1.0713, the Mar 24 low. Key short-term resistance is at 1.0930, the Mar 23 high. A break of this level would reinstate the recent bull theme and signal scope for a climb towards 1.1033, the Feb 2 high. On the downside, support to watch lies at 1.0736 (20-day EMA) and 1.0693 (50-day EMA). A move through this support zone would expose the recent low at 1.0516 on Mar 15.

GBPUSD TECHS: Approaching Key Resistance

• RES 4: 1.2496 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.2448 High Jan 23 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 2: 1.2401 High Feb 2
• RES 1: 1.2362 High Mar 29
• PRICE: 1.2317 @ 06:31 BST Mar 30
• SUP 1: 1.2191 Low Mar 24
• SUP 2: 1.2184 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2130 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.2011 Low Mar 15

GBPUSD maintains a bullish tone for now. The pair has recently cleared a number of resistance points, strengthening a short-term bullish condition. Sights are on resistance at 1.2401, the Feb 2 high and 1.2448, the Jan 23 high. The latter is a key medium-term hurdle for bulls. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 1.2191, the Mar 24 low, ahead of 1.2184, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of the EMA would be a bearish development.

EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Focus

• RES 4: 0.8925 High Mar 7 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8918 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 15 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.8885 Trendline drawn from the Feb 3 high
• RES 1: 0.8827 High Mar 24
• PRICE: 0.8799 @ 06:39 BST Mar 30
• SUP 1: 0.8771 Low Mar 28
• SUP 2: 0.8719 Low Mar 15 and key support
• SUP 3: 0.8712 61.8% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull leg
• SUP 4: 0.8691 Low Dec 19

EURGBP is unchanged. The cross remains below 0.8866, the Mar 23 high. Recent gains, between Mar 15 - 23, highlight a bullish picture and attention is on a key short-term trendline resistance at 0.8883. The trendline is drawn from the Feb 3 high and a break would strengthen bullish conditions. On the downside, key support to watch is unchanged at 0.8719, the Mar 15 low. Clearance of this level would instead reinstate a recent bearish theme.

USDJPY TECHS: Firm Resistance Is Seen At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 135.11 High Mar 15
• RES 3: 133.77 50.0% retracement of the Mar 8 - 24 bear leg
• RES 2: 133.38 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 132.89 High Mar 29
• PRICE: 132.46 @ 06:53 BST Mar 30
• SUP 1: 130.76 Low MAr 29
• SUP 2: 129.64 Low Mar 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 128.09 Low Feb 2
• SUP 4: 127.23 Low Jan 16 and key support

The trend direction in USDJPY remains down and this week’s gains are considered corrective. The 20-day EMA has been tested. A firmer resistance is seen at the 50-day EMA that intersects at 133.38. A clear break of this EMA would highlight a stronger reversal. On the downside, the bear trigger has been defined at 129.64. A break would resume the downtrend and open 129.12, the Feb 2 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 145.83 High Dec 20 2022
• RES 3: 145.57 High Mar 2 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 144.96 High Mar 15
• RES 1: 144.10 High Mar 29
• PRICE: 143.66 @ 07:04 BST Mar 30
• SUP 1: 141.79 Low Mar 29
• SUP 2: 140.41/139.07 Low Mar 27 / 24
• SUP 3: 138.83 Low Mar 20 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 137.92 Low Jan 19

EURJPY traded sharply higher Wednesday and topped 143.63, the Mar 22 high. This level represents a key short-term resistance. A clear break would reinstate a bullish theme and signal scope for a climb towards 145.57, the Mar 2 high and a key resistance. Initial firm support is seen at yesterday’s low of 141.79. A reversal lower and a break of this support would be a bearish development.

AUDUSD TECHS: Short-Term Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 0.6865 High Feb 22
• RES 3: 0.6824 High Feb 24
• RES 2: 0.6784 High Mar 1
• RES 1: 0.6755 50-day EMA and a key resistance
• PRICE: 0.6699 @ 07:21 BST Mar 30
• SUP 1: 0.6625 Low Mar 24
• SUP 2: 0.6590 Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: 0.6565/47 Low Mar 10 / 61.8% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.6500 Round number support

AUDUSD is consolidating. The trend condition is unchanged and the outlook remains bearish - recent gains, since Mar 10, appear to be a correction. The 20-day EMA has been breached but resistance at the 50-day EMA remains intact. The average intersects at 0.6755. A clear breach of it would signal scope for a stronger short-term recovery. Key support and the bear trigger lies at 0.6565, the Mar 10 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 1.3898 High Oct 14
• RES 3: 1.3805/3862 High Mar 24 / 10 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.3745 High Mar 27
• RES 1: 1.3663 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3546 @ 08:10 BST Mar 30
• SUP 1: 1.3517/15 100-dma / Low Feb 22
• SUP 2: 1.3491 61.8% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 rally
• SUP 3: 1.3442 Low Feb 20 / 21
• SUP 4: 1.3404 76.4% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 rally

The current bear cycle in USDCAD remains in play and the pair is trading lower again today. This week’s bearish extension has resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA and 1.3562, the 50% retracement for the Feb 2 - Mar 10 rally. The move lower signals scope for a continuation towards 1.3515, the Feb 22 low and 1.3491, the 61.8% retracement. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 1.3663, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Tests Support At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 140.30 High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 140.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 137.85/139.54 High Mar 27 / 24
• RES 1: 136.56 High Mar 28
• PRICE: 135.54 @ 05:18 BST Mar 30
• SUP 1: 135.57/45 20-day EMA / Low Mar 29
• SUP 2: 134.80 Low Mar 22
• SUP 3: 134.15 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2 - 20 rally
• SUP 4: 133.33 Low Mar 15

Bund futures traded lower Wednesday as the contract extended the pullback from 139.54, the Mar 24 high. Price has tested a key support at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 135.57. It represents an important pivot level and a clear break of the average is required to signal scope for a deeper pullback. This would open 134.80, the Mar 22 low. On the upside, initial resistance is at Wednesday’s intraday high of 136.56.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Bear Leg Extends

• RES 4: 121.000 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 120.610 High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 119.170/120.130 High Mar 27 / 24
• RES 1: 118.490 High Mar 28
• PRICE: 117.880 @ 05:23 BST Mar 30
• SUP 1: 117.781 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 117.300 Low Mar 22
• SUP 3: 116.982 61.8% retracement of the Mar 6 - 20 rally
• SUP 4: 116.370 Low Mar 15

Bobl futures continue to edge lower. Support at 117.300 remains intact, Mar 22 low. Note that an important pivot support lies at the 20-day EMA, at 117.781. A clear break of this EMA is required to signal scope for a deeper pullback. This would expose 116.982, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on 120.610, the Mar 21 high and a bull trigger. Initial resistance is at 118.490, the Mar 28 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Corrective Pullback Extends

• RES 4: 107.110 High Dec 7 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 106.955 High Mar 20 and key resistance
• RES 2: 106.315/695 High Mar 27 / 24
• RES 1: 106.050 High Mar 28
• PRICE: 105.795 @ 05:40 BST Mar 30
• SUP 1: 105.721 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 105.575 Low Mar 22
• SUP 3: 105.336 61.8% retracement of the Mar 9 - 20 rally
• SUP 4: 105.030 Low Mar 15

A key support in Schatz futures lies at 105.721, the 20-day EMA, where a break is required to strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper pullback. This would open 105.575, the Mar 22 low. For now, the recent move lower appears to be a correction. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger is at 106.955, the Mar 20 high. Initial resistance is seen at 106.050, Tuesday’s high.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Trades Through The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 107.78 High Feb 2 (cont) a and a key resistance
• RES 3: 107.33 High Mar 20
• RES 2: 105.62/106.37 High Mar 27 / 76.4% of Mar 24 - 28 pullback
• RES 1: 104.35 High Mar 28
• PRICE: 103.96 @ Close Mar 29
• SUP 1: 103.26 50.0% retracement of the entire rally from Feb 28
• SUP 2: 102.84 Low Mar 22
• SUP 3: 102.31 61.8% retracement of the entire rally from Feb 28
• SUP 4: 102.00 Round number support

Gilt futures traded lower Wednesday. This week’s move down has resulted in a break of support at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 103.74. The average represents an important short-term support and a clear break would signal scope for a continuation lower near-term, towards 102.84, the Mar 22 low. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 104.35, Tuesday’s intraday high. A move above this level would ease the developing bearish threat.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Watching Support

• RES 4: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 3: 118.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 117.17 High Mar 24 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 115.75 Intraday high
• PRICE: 115.19 @ 08:58 BST Mar 30
• SUP 1: 114.69 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 114.15 Low Mar 22
• SUP 3: 113.02 High Mar 9 and a gap low
• SUP 4: 111.79 Low Mar 9

BTP futures continue to trade below last week’s high of 117.17, on Mar 24. The short-term outlook is bullish and the recent pullback is considered corrective. A resumption of gains would open 118.18 next, the Jan 19 high on the continuation chart and a key resistance. Support to watch lies at 113.02, the Mar 9 high and a gap low on the daily chart. Initial firm support is seen at 114.69, the 20-day EMA.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Clears Short-Term Resistance

• RES 4: 4300.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 4268.00 High Mar 6 and key resistance
• RES 2: 4240.00 High Mar 9
• RES 1: 4189.00 High Mar 29
• PRICE: 4184.00 @ 06:01 BST Mar 30
• SUP 1: 4102.40 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4034.00 Low Mar 24 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 4000.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 3914.00 Low Mar 20

Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher Wednesday. The contract has cleared resistance at 4164.00, the Mar 22 high. This cancels a recent bearish threat and confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started Mar 20. A continuation higher would open key resistance at 4268.00, Mar 6 high. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up and this suggests the broader uptrend is intact. Initial firm support lies at 4034.00, the Mar 24 low.

E-MINI S&P (M3): Climbs Above The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4148.48 76.4% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 13 downleg
• RES 3: 4119.50 High Mar 6
• RES 2: 4089.39 61.8% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 13 downleg
• RES 1: 4073.75 High Mar 22
• PRICE: 4064.50 @ 07:02 BST Mar 30
• SUP 1: 4005.39 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 3937.00/3897.25 Low Mar 24 / 20
• SUP 3: 3839.25 Low Mar 13
• SUP 4: 3822.00 Low Dec 22 and a key support

S&P E-Minis traded higher Wednesday and the contract has once again moved to levels above the 50-day EMA. The average intersects at 4021.12. Attention is on resistance at 4073.75, the Mar 22 high. A break of this hurdle would strengthen bullish conditions and signal scope for a climb towards 4119.50, the Mar 6 high. On the downside, key short-term support lies at 3937.00, the Mar 24 low. A break of this support would be bearish.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K3) Approaching The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $84.00 - High Mar 9
• RES 3: $82.83 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 20 downleg
• RES 2: $80.71 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $79.68 - High Mar 29
• PRICE: $78.95 @ 06:31 BST Mar 29
• SUP 1: $75.24 - Trendline drawn from the Mar 20 low
• SUP 2: $72.68/70.12 - Low Mar 24 / Low Mar 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $65.72 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)

Brent futures have pulled back from Wednesday’s high of $79.68. Price has this week breached the 20-day EMA which intersects at $78.40. This average represented a key short-term resistance and the break strengthens current bullish conditions, signalling scope for a continuation higher. The next key resistance is $80.71, the 50-day EMA. Initial firm support lies at $72.68, the Mar 24 low. A break would be bearish.

WTI TECHS: (K3) Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: $81.04 - High Mar 7 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $78.17 - High Mar 9
• RES 2: $77.10 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 20 downleg
• RES 1: $75.12 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $72.94 @ 06:46 BST Mar 30
• SUP 1: $69.28 Trendline drawn from the Mar 20 low
• SUP 2: $66.82/64.36 - Low Mar 24 / 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont) and a key support
• SUP 4: $63.19 - 1.764 proj of the Jan 23 - Feb 6 - Mar 7 price swing

WTI futures continue to trade closer to this week’s highs. Price has breached resistance at the 20-day EMA which intersects at $72.64. The break is a short-term bullish development and a continuation higher would expose the 50-day EMA, at $74.96. This average represents the next key resistance point. On the downside, initial firm support lies at $66.82, the Mar 24 low. A break of this level would be bearish.

GOLD TECHS: Bullish Pennant Formation Reinforces Bullish Conditions

• RES 4: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $2059.2 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 2: $2034.0 - 2.00 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 rally from Feb 28
• RES 1: $2009.7 - High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1967.1 @ 07:15 BST Mar 30
• SUP 1: $1928.4 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1918.3 - Low Mar 17
• SUP 3: $1889.9 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $1827.8 - Low Mar 10

Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the recent short-term pullback is considered corrective. Note too that price action since Mar 20 appears to be a pennant - a continuation pattern. This reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for an extension higher near-term. The recent test above $2000.0 opens $2034.0 next, a Fibonacci projection. $1918.3 marks a firm support, the Mar 17 low - a break would signal scope for a deeper pullback.

SILVER TECHS: Fresh Trend High

• RES 4: $24.729 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep 2022 bear leg
• RES 3: $24.637 - High Feb 2 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $24.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $23.542 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $23.473 @ 07:26 BST Mar 30
• SUP 1: $22.157 - Low Mar 21
• SUP 2: $21.474 - Low Mar 16
• SUP 3: $20.591/19.904 - Low Mar 13 / 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $19.416 - Low Nov 4

Silver remains firm and the metal has traded to a fresh trend high today. Price has recently cleared resistance at the 50-day EMA - the average intersects at $22.189 and the break of this average strengthens bullish conditions. $23.520, 76.4% of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 downleg, has been pierced. A clear break would open the $24.00 handle. On the downside, $22.157 marks initial firm support, the Mar 21 low.