MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - GBPUSD Confirms Extension of Bull Cycle

Price Signal Summary – GBPUSD Confirms Extension of Bull Cycle

• S&P E-minis traded higher again Tuesday and the contract is holding on to its latest gains. The break higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, marking an extension of the bull cycle that started in October 2022. Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher Tuesday. Attention turns to resistance at 4362.00, the May 29 high. Clearance of this level would be a bullish development and signal scope for an extension higher towards key resistance at 4409.50, the Nov 18 2021 high on the continuation chart.
• GBPUSD traded higher Tuesday to confirm an extension of the current bull cycle. The pair has breached 1.2592, 76.4% of the May 10 - 25 downleg. This signals scope for a climb towards key resistance at 1.2680, the May 10 high. USDJPY traded higher yesterday but remains inside its recent range. The trend condition is bullish and attention remains on key resistance at the top of a bull channel drawn from the Jan 16 low, which intersects at 141.35 today. A clear break of this hurdle would be bullish. The AUDUSD bull cycle that started May 31 remains in play and the pair traded to a fresh short-term high yesterday. Price has recently cleared 0.6733, 76.4% of the downleg in May, reinforcing current conditions and this signals scope for a test of 0.6818, the May 10 high and a key resistance.
• The bear cycle in Gold remains intact. The yellow metal continues to challenge trendline support drawn from the Nov 3 2022 low. The trendline intersects at $1962.6. A clear breach of this line would reinforce bearish conditions and resume the downtrend. WTI futures continue to trade below resistance at $75.06, Jun 5 high. The pullback from this level reinforces a bearish theme and Monday’s sell-off marked an extension of the latest move lower. Support at $67.03, May 31 low, has been pierced, a clear break would open $63.90.
• Bund futures maintain a softer tone following last week’s move lower and yesterday’s sell-off reinforces a bearish theme. Resistance at 134.95, the Jun 6 high, remains intact. A break of this level is required to expose key short-term resistance at 135.85, the Jun 1 high. Gilt futures remain bearish and yesterday’s move lower reinforces current conditions. The contract has pierced support at 94.21, the May 26 low and bear trigger.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Watching Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.0919 61.8% retracement of the Apr 26 - May 31 downleg
• RES 3: 1.0905 High May 16
• RES 2: 1.0865 50.0% retracement of the Apr 26 - May 31 downleg
• RES 1: 1.0824 High Jun 13
• PRICE: 1.0789 @ 05:44 BST Jun 14
• SUP 1: 1.0733 Low Jun 12
• SUP 2: 1.0667/35 Low Jun 6 / Low May 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0608 Low Mar 17
• SUP 4: 1.0551 Low Mar 16

EURUSD attention is on 1.0811, the 50-day EMA, which was pierced yesterday. A clear break of this average would signal scope for an extension higher and open 1.0865, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that the trend condition remains bearish and the latest bounce still appears to be a correction. A failure at the 50-day EMA and a reversal lower would open 1.0635, May 31 low and the bear trigger.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 1.2772 High Apr 26 2022
• RES 3: 1.2680 High May 10 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.2641 High May 11
• RES 1: 1.2625 High June 13
• PRICE: 1.2612 @ 06:01 BST Jun 14
• SUP 1: 1.2482/35 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 1.2369 Low Jun 5 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.2308 Low May 25 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.2275 Low Apr 3

GBPUSD traded higher Tuesday to confirm an extension of the current bull cycle. The pair has breached 1.2592, 76.4% of the May 10 - 25 downleg. This signals scope for a climb towards key resistance at 1.2680, the May 10 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the longer-term uptrend that started Sep 26 last year. Initial firm support has been defined at 1.2369, Jun 5 low. First support is 1.2482, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 0.8768 High May 5
• RES 3: 0.8719 High May 23
• RES 2: 0.8695 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8630 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8554 @ 06:16 BST Jun 14
• SUP 1: 0.8541 Low Jun 9 / 12 low
• SUP 2: 0.8522 Low Aug 30 2022
• SUP 3: 0.8503/8487 1.0% 10-dma env / 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band
• SUP 4: 0.8454 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep 2022 bull cycle

The primary trend direction in EURGBP remains down and short-term gains are considered corrective, with initial resistance at 0.8630, the 20-day EMA. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode condition, highlighting a downtrend and recent fresh lows have reinforced bearish conditions. Clearance of 0.8541, the Jun 9 and 12 lows, would confirm a resumption of the trend. This would open 0.8522, the Aug 30 2022 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Key Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 142.51 61.8% of the Oct 16 2022 - Jan 16 bear leg
• RES 3: 142.25 High Nov 21 2022
• RES 2: 141.61 High Nov 23 2022
• RES 1: 140.45/141.35 High Jun 5 / Bull channel top from Jan 16 low
• PRICE: 140.05 @ 06:44 BST Jun 14
• SUP 1: 138.93/45 20-day EMA / Low Jun 1
• SUP 2: 137.43 Low May 19
• SUP 3: 137.13 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 136.31 Low May 17

USDJPY traded higher yesterday but remains inside its recent range. The trend condition is bullish and attention remains on key resistance at the top of a bull channel drawn from the Jan 16 low, which intersects at 141.35 today. A clear break of this hurdle would be bullish and open 141.61, the Nov 23 2022 high. For bears, a strong reversal lower would instead highlight a potential top. Support is at 138.93, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 152.81 1.50 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 3: 152.00 1.382 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 2: 151.61 High May 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 151.38 High Jun 13
• PRICE: 151.09 @ 07:03 BST Jun 14
• SUP 1: 149.64/148.59 20-day EMA / Low May 31
• SUP 2: 148.22 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 147.61 Low May 16
• SUP 4: 146.79 2.0% 10-dma envelope

The broader theme in EURJPY remains bullish and the cross traded higher yesterday, reinforcing current conditions. Price has cleared 151.07, the May 29 high and this exposes key resistance at 151.61, the May 2 high and an important bull trigger. Clearance here opens the best levels since 2008. On the downside, key short-term support is at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 148.22. A break would highlight a possible reversal.

AUDUSD TECHS: Eyeing Key Resistance

• RES 4: 0.6921 High Feb 20
• RES 3: 0.6860/65 3.0% 10-dma envelope / High Feb 22
• RES 2: 0.6818 High May 10 and key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6807 High Jun 13
• PRICE: 0.6765 @ 07:26 BST Jun 14
• SUP 1: 0.6693 Low Jun 9
• SUP 2: 0.6657 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.6567/6458 Low May 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6403 76.4% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle

The AUDUSD bull cycle that started May 31 remains in play and the pair traded to a fresh short-term high yesterday. Price has recently cleared 0.6733, 76.4% of the downleg in May, reinforcing current conditions and this signals scope for a test of 0.6818, the May 10 high and a key resistance. On the downside, a strong reversal is required to refocus attention on 0.6458, the May 31 low. Initial firm support is seen at 0.6657, the 20-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Key Support Gives Way

• RES 4: 1.3668 High Apr 28 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3585 High Jun 1
• RES 2: 1.3487 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3443 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3312 @ 07:58 BST Jun 14
• SUP 1: 1.3286 Low Jun 13
• SUP 3: 1.3275 Low Feb 14
• SUP 2: 1.3271 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.3137 2.0% 10-dma envelope

USDCAD broke lower Tuesday, taking out key support at the mid-April lows of 1.3302. This reinforces bearish conditions and a continuation lower would open 1.3275 - the Feb 14 low - and vol band support undercutting at 1.3271. Clearance here would further strengthen bearish conditions. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 1.3443, the 20-day EMA. A break of this level is required to ease bearish pressure.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U3) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 136.50 High May 11
• RES 3: 135.85 High Jun 1 and key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 134.77/95 / High Jun 12 / 6
• RES 1: 134.10 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 133.44 @ 05:24 BST Jun 14
• SUP 1: 133.18 Low Jun 13
• SUP 2: 133.00/132.97 76.4% of the May 26 - Jun 1 rally / Low Jun 8
• SUP 3: 132.33 Low May 29
• SUP 4: 132.12 Low May 26 and key support

Bund futures maintain a softer tone following last week’s move lower and yesterday’s sell-off reinforces a bearish theme. Resistance at 134.95, the Jun 6 high, remains intact. A break of this level is required to expose key short-term resistance at 135.85, the Jun 1 high. On the downside, support to watch is 132.97, the Jun 8 low. A break would strengthen bearish conditions and expose 132.12, May 26 low and bear trigger.

BOBL TECHS: (U3) Bearish Price Action

• RES 4: 118.000 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 117.700 High Jun 1 and key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 117.200 High Jun 6
• RES 1: 116.990/117.010 High Jun 12 / 7
• PRICE: 116.160 @ 05:35 BST Jun 14
• SUP 1: 116.030 Low Jun 13
• SUP 2: 116.000Round number support
• SUP 3: 115.970 Low May 29
• SUP 4: 115.870 Low May 26 and key support

Bobl futures maintain a softer tone and yesterday’s sell-off reinforces bearish conditions. The break lower resulted in a move through support at 116.250, the Jun 8 low. This confirms a resumption of the current bearish cycle and exposes key support at 115.870, the May 26 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen bearish conditions. On the upside, resistance to watch is 116.990, the Jun 12 high. A break would ease bearish pressure.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U3) Resumes Its Downtrend

• RES 4: 105.975 High May 17
• RES 3: 105.875 High Jun 1 and key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 105.655/815 High Jun 6 / 4
• RES 1: 105.550 High Jun 12 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 105.230 @ 05:51 BST Jun 14
• SUP 1: 105.185 Low Jun 13
• SUP 2: 105.000 Round number support
• SUP 3: 104.960 Low Mar 13 (cont)
• SUP 4: 104.695 Low Mar 10 (cont)

Schatz futures traded lower yesterday and cleared support at 105.330, the May 26 low and bear trigger. The break confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This opens the 105.000 handle next. Note that moving average studies remain in a bear mode condition, highlighting a downtrend. Initial firm resistance is seen at 105.550, the Jun 12 high.

GILT TECHS: (U3) Testing Key Support

• RES 4: 97.64 High Jun 1 and the reversal trigger
• RES 3: 96.63/97.06 High Jun 9 / 6
• RES 2: 96.31 High Jun 12
• RES 1: 95.18 High Jun 13
• PRICE: 94.34 @ Close Jun 13
• SUP 1: 94.21/19 May 26 and the bear trigger / Low Jun 13
• SUP 2: 94.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 93.45 1.618 proj of the Feb 2 - 28 - Mar 20 price swing (cont)
• SUP 4: 92.19 1.764 proj of the Feb 2 - 28 - Mar 20 price swing (cont)

Gilt futures remain bearish and yesterday’s move lower reinforces current conditions. The contract has pierced support at 94.21, the May 26 low and bear trigger. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open the 94.00 handle initially. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position reflecting current sentiment. Initial firm resistance is at 96.63, the Jun 9 high.

BTP TECHS: (U3) Key Resistance Cleared

• RES 4: 118.41 1.00 projection of May 26 - Jun 2 - Jun 8 price swing
• RES 3: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 2: 117.33 0.764 projection of May 26 - Jun 2 - Jun 8 price swing
• RES 1: 117.08 High Jun 13
• PRICE: 116.33 @ Close Jun 14
• SUP 1: 114.97 Low Jun 9
• SUP 2: 113.83 Low Jun 8 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 112.48 Low May 29
• SUP 4: 111.78 Low May 26 and a key support

BTP futures traded to a fresh cycle high again yesterday. The contract has cleared resistance at 116.36, the Jun 2 high and a short-term bull trigger. This cancels a recent bearish threat and instead confirms a resumption of the uptrend and signals scope for a climb towards 117.33, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 113.83, the Jun 8 low. A break would be bearish.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Approaching Resistance

• RES 4: 4457.50 0.5 proj of the Mar 20 - Apr 21 - May 4 price swing
• RES 3: 4448.00 High Jan 2008 (cont)
• RES 2: 4409.50 High Nov 18 2021 (cont) and a major resistance
• RES 1: 4362.00 High May 29
• PRICE: 4348.00 @ 06:20 BST Jun 14
• SUP 1: 4216.00 Low May 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4200.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 4175.00 Low Mar 30
• SUP 4: 4164.00 High Mar 22

Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher Tuesday. Attention turns to resistance at 4362.00, the May 29 high. Clearance of this level would be a bullish development and signal scope for an extension higher towards key resistance at 4409.50, the Nov 18 2021 high on the continuation chart. The recent break of a number of support levels still highlights a potential bearish threat. A reversal lower would expose 4216.00, May 31 low and bear trigger.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U3) Bullish Extension

• RES 4: 4492.25 2.00 projection of the May 4 - 19 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: 4452.42 1.764 projection of the May 4 - 19 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 4427.79 1.618 projection of the May 4 - 19 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 4415.50 Intraday high
• PRICE: 4417.25 @ 07:08 BST Jun 14
• SUP 1: 4348.75/4292.26 High Jun 5 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4225.03 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4154.75 Low May 24
• SUP 4: 4098.25 Low May 4 and a key support

S&P E-minis traded higher again Tuesday and the contract is holding on to its latest gains. The break higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, marking an extension of the bull cycle that started in October 2022. The focus is on a climb towards 4427.79, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is at 4292.26, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q3) Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: $84.56 - High Apr 18
• RES 3: $82.47 - High Apr 25
• RES 2: $80.08 - High Apr 28
• RES 1: $75.47/78.73 - 20-day EMA / High Jun 5 and a bull trigger
• PRICE: $74.59 @ 06:57 BST Jun 14
• SUP 1: $71.50 - Low May 31
• SUP 2: $71.20 - Low May 4
• SUP 3: $70.06 - Low Mar 20 and a key support
• SUP 4: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)

Brent futures continue to trade below last week’s high of $78.73, a key short-term resistance. The outlook is bearish and Monday’s sell-off reinforces current conditions. Scope is seen for a move towards $71.20, the May 4 low, ahead of $70.06, the Mar 20 low. Moving average studies remain in a bear mode position and this highlights a downtrend. On the upside, clearance of $78.73 would alter the picture. Short-term gains are considered corrective.

WTI TECHS: (N3) Bear Threat Still Present

• RES 4: $80.93 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $79.00 - High Apr 24
• RES 2: $76.74 - High Apr 28
• RES 1: $71.12/75.06 - 20-day EMA / High Jun 5 and a key resistance
• PRICE: $69.63 @ 07:00 BST Jun 14
• SUP 1: $66.80 - Low Jun 12
• SUP 2: $63.90 - Low May 4 and key support
• SUP 3: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number

WTI futures continue to trade below resistance at $75.06, Jun 5 high. The pullback from this level reinforces a bearish theme and Monday’s sell-off marked an extension of the latest move lower. Support at $67.03, May 31 low, has been pierced, a clear break would open $63.90, May 4 low. MA studies are in a bear mode position highlighting a downtrend. A break of $75.06 is required to signal a reversal. S/T gains are considered corrective.

GOLD TECHS: Continues To Test Trendline Support

• RES 4: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: $2063.0 - High May 4
• RES 2: $2022.6 - High May 12
• RES 1: $1985.3 - High May 24 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $1947.1 @ 07:14 BST Jun 14
• SUP 1: $1932.2/18.3 - Low May 31 / Low Mar 17
• SUP 2: $1903.5 - 61.8% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle
• SUP 3: $1885.8 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: $1865.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle

The bear cycle in Gold remains intact. The yellow metal continues to challenge trendline support drawn from the Nov 3 2022 low. The trendline intersects at $1962.6. A clear breach of this line would reinforce bearish conditions and resume the downtrend. This would open $1903.5, 61.8% of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle. Initial firm resistance is $1985.3, the May 24 high. Clearance of this resistance would signal a short-term reversal instead.

SILVER TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact - For Now

• RES 4: $26.771 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $25.477/26.135 - High May 11 / 5 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $24.492/530 - Low Apr 25 and double midpoint / High Jun 12
• PRICE: $23.775 @ 08:00 BST Jun 14
• SUP 1: $23.250/22.682 - Low June 5 / Low May 26 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $22.284 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally
• SUP 3: $22.157 - Low Mar 21
• SUP 4: $21.375 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally

Silver traded higher last Friday. The metal has tested resistance at $24.492, the Apr 25 low and midpoint of a double top confirmed on May 11. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a stronger recovery and open $25.477, the May 11 high. Key support has been defined at $22.682, the May 26 low and bear trigger. A break would reinstate a bearish theme. Initial support to watch lies at $23.250, the Jun 5 low.