MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - GBPUSD Maintains a Bullish Tone, With Scope for Further Gains

Price Signal Summary – GBPUSD Maintains a Bullish Tone, With Scope for Further Gains

• S&P E-Minis reversed sharply lower last Wednesday. The move down means that price has - so far - failed to remain above pivot resistance at the 50-day EMA. The EMA intersects at 4020.71 and price is again testing this level today. Eurostoxx 50 futures remain below last week’s high of 4164.00 on Mar 22 high. The pullback threatens the recent bull theme and signals the possible end of what appears to have been a corrective bounce.
• GBPUSD maintains a bullish tone despite the pullback from 1.2344, the Mar 23 high. The pair has recently cleared a number of resistance points signalling scope for an extension higher. This has opened 1.2401, the Feb 2 high and 1.2448, the Jan 23 high. The current downtrend in USDJPY remains intact and the pair traded lower again Friday, reinforcing current conditions. The move down maintains the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The AUDUSD trend condition is unchanged and remains bearish - the recovery that started on Mar 10 appears to be a correction. The 20-day EMA has been breached but resistance at the 50-day EMA remains intact.
• Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the recent short-term pullback is considered corrective. The breach on Mar 17 of former resistance at $1959.7, Feb 2 high, confirmed a resumption of the bull trend that started late September 2022. WTI futures remain in a downtrend and last week’s recovery appears to be a correction. Note that the latest move higher has allowed a recent oversold condition to unwind. Firm resistance is seen at $72.51 the 20-day EMA.
• Bund futures remain above 134.80, the Mar 22 low. A key support at the 20-day EMA, which intersects at 135.05 today, remains intact. A clear break of the average is required to signal scope for a deeper pullback. Gilt futures traded to a low of 102.84 on Mar 22. Price has recovered from this low. Sights are on 107.33, the Mar 20 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this level would reinforce a bullish theme and open 107.78, the Feb 2 high on the continuation chart.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Approaching Support At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.1076 High Apr 1 2022
• RES 3: 1.1033 High Feb 2 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.0940 High Feb 3
• RES 1: 1.0839/0930 High Mar 24 / 23
• PRICE: 1.0768 @ 05:42 GMT Mar 27
• SUP 1: 1.0703 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0675 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.0608 Low Mar 17
• SUP 4: 1.0516 Low Mar 15 and the bear trigger

EURUSD traded lower Friday and the pair remains below 1.0930, the Mar 23 high. Price has breached 1.0760, Mar 15 high and attention turns to support at 1.0703 (20-day EMA) and 1.0675 (50-day EMA). A break of this support zone would expose the recent low at 1.0516 on Mar 15. For bulls, clearance of 1.0930 would reinstate the recent bull theme and signal scope for a climb towards 1.1033, the Feb 2 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 1.2448 High Jan 23 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 3: 1.2440 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.2401 High Feb 2
• RES 1: 1.2344 High Mar 23
• PRICE: 1.2236 @ 05:54 GMT Mar 27
• SUP 1: 1.2179 Low Mar 23 / 21
• SUP 2: 1.2138 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2106 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.2011 Low Mar 15

GBPUSD maintains a bullish tone despite the pullback from 1.2344, the Mar 23 high. The pair has recently cleared a number of resistance points signalling scope for an extension higher. This has opened 1.2401, the Feb 2 high and 1.2448, the Jan 23 high. The latter is a key medium-term resistance. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 1.2179, the Mar 21 low, ahead of 1.2138, the 20-day EMA and a key short-term chart point.

EURGBP TECHS: Short-Term Outlook Appears Bullish

• RES 4: 0.8925 High Mar 7 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8918 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 15 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.8890 Trendline drawn from the Feb 3 high
• RES 1: 0.8880 61.8% retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 15 bear leg
• PRICE: 0.8798 @ 06:16 GMT Mar 27
• SUP 1: 0.8772 Low Mar 22
• SUP 2: 0.8719 Low Mar 15 and key support
• SUP 3: 0.8712 61.8% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull leg
• SUP 4: 0.8691 Low Dec 19

EURGBP remains below last week’s high of 0.8866 (Mar 23). Recent gains highlight a bullish picture and this has exposed a key short-term trendline resistance at 0.8890. The trendline is drawn from the Feb 3 high and a break would strengthen bullish conditions. On the downside, key support has been defined at 0.8719, the Mar 15 low. A reversal lower and a break of this level would reinstate the recent bearish theme.

USDJPY TECHS: Downtrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 135.11 High Mar 15
• RES 3: 133.59 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 133.00/133.17 High Mar 22 / 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 131.66 High Mar 23
• PRICE: 130.74 @ 06:38 GMT Mar 27
• SUP 1: 129.75/64 76.4% of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 rally / Intraday low
• SUP 2: 129.12 High Feb 2
• SUP 3: 128.09 Low Feb 2
• SUP 4: 127.23 Low Jan 16 and key support

The current downtrend in USDJPY remains intact and the pair traded lower again Friday, reinforcing current conditions. The move down maintains the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Price has pierced 129.75, 76.4% of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 rally. A clear break would open 129.12, the Feb 2 low. Firm resistance is seen at the 20-day EMA, at 133.17 where a break is required to ease bearish pressure.

EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 145.57 High Mar a2 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 144.96 High Mar 15
• RES 2: 143.98 76.4% retracement of the recent Mar 2 - 20 bear cycle
• RES 1: 142.56/143.63 50-day EMA / High Mar 22
• PRICE: 140.93 @ 06:47 GMT Mar 27
• SUP 1: 139.07 Low Mar 24
• SUP 2: 138.83 Low Mar 20 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 137.92 Low Jan 19
• SUP 4: 137.66 3.0% 10-dma envelope

EURJPY gains last week stalled at 143.63, the Mar 22 high. This level represents a key short-term resistance where a break is required to reinstate a bullish theme. A continuation lower would expose key support at 138.83, the Mar 20 low and a bear trigger. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull mode set-up - this suggests the latest pullback is a correction. A break of 143.63 would open 143.98, 76.4% of the Mar 2 - 20 bear cycle.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 0.6865 High Feb 22
• RES 3: 0.6824 High Feb 24
• RES 2: 0.6784 High Mar 1
• RES 1: 0.6764 50-day EMA and a key resistance
• PRICE: 0.6661 @ 08:09 GMT Mar 27
• SUP 1: 0.6625 Low Mar 24
• SUP 2: 0.6590/47 Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: 0.6565/47 Low Mar 10 / 61.8% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.6500 Round number support

The AUDUSD trend condition is unchanged and remains bearish - the recovery that started on Mar 10 appears to be a correction. The 20-day EMA has been breached but resistance at the 50-day EMA remains intact. The average intersects at 0.6764. A clear break of it would signal scope for a stronger short-term recovery. Key support and the bear trigger lies at 0.6565, the Mar 10 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 1.4000 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 1.3977 High Oct 13
• RES 2: 1.3898 High Oct 14
• RES 1: 1.3814/3862 High Mar 15 / 10 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3726 @ 08:20 GMT Mar 27
• SUP 1: 1.3631 Low Mar 23
• SUP 2: 1.3595 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3515 Low Feb 22
• SUP 4: 1.3442 Low Feb 20 / 21

The recent move lower in USDCAD is still considered corrective and this has allowed a recent overbought condition to unwind. A key support area to watch lies at 1.3595, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper corrective pullback. On the upside, the bull trigger is at 1.3862, the Mar 10 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend and open 1.3977, the Oct 13 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Remains Above Support

• RES 4: 140.73 High Jan 19 (cont) and a key resistance
• RES 3: 140.30 High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 140.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 139.54 High Mar 24
• PRICE: 137.10 @ 08:12 GMT Mar 27
• SUP 1: 136.92 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 135.80 Low Mar 23
• SUP 3: 135.33/134.80 20-day EMA / Low Mar 22
• SUP 4: 134.15 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2 - 20 rally

Bund futures remain above 134.80, the Mar 22 low. A key support at the 20-day EMA, which intersects at 135.05 today, remains intact. A clear break of the average is required to signal scope for a deeper pullback. For now, the recent retracement down appears to have been a correction and attention is on the 140.00 handle and key resistance at 140.30, the Mar 20 high and a bull trigger.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 121.290 High Dec 2 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 121.000 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 120.610 High Mar 21
• RES 1: 120.310 HHigh Mar 21 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 119.020 @ 05:27 GMT Mar 24
• SUP 1: 117.920 Low Mar 23
• SUP 2: 117.601/300 20-day EMA / Low Mar 22
• SUP 3: 116.982 61.8% retracement of the Mar 6 - 20 rally
• SUP 4: 116.370 Low Mar 15

Bobl futures support at 117.300 remains intact, the Mar 22 low. A key pivot support lies at the 20-day EMA that intersects at 117.601. A clear break of the EMA is required to signal scope for a deeper pullback. This would expose 116.982, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, a continuation of gains would refocus attention on 120.610, the Mar 21 high and bull trigger. Initial firm resistance is seen at 120.130, the Mar 24 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Watching Support

• RES 4: 107.110 High Dec 7 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 107.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 106.955 High Mar 20 and key resistance
• RES 1: 106.695 High Mar 24
• PRICE: 106.255 @ 05:35 GMT Mar 27
• SUP 1: 105.795 Low Mar 23
• SUP 2: 105.636 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 105.575 Low Mar 22
• SUP 4: 105.336 61.8% retracement of the Mar 9 - 20 rally

Schatz futures last week recovered from the Mar 22 low of 105.575. A key support lies at 105.636, the 20-day EMA, where a break is required to strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper pullback. For now, the recent move lower is considered corrective. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger is at 106.955, the Mar 20 high. Initial firm resistance is seen at 106.695, Friday’s high.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Key Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 108.91 High Nov 24 2022 (cont) and a key M/T resistance
• RES 3: 108.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 107.78 High Feb 2 (cont) a and a key resistance
• RES 1: 107.33 High Mar 20
• PRICE: 105.81 @ Close Mar 24
• SUP 1: 105.03 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 103.84/59 Low Mar 23 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 102.84 Low Mar 22
• SUP 4: 102.31 61.8% retracement of the entire rally from Feb 28

Gilt futures traded to a low of 102.84 on Mar 22. Price has recovered from this low. Sights are on 107.33, the Mar 20 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this level would reinforce a bullish theme and open 107.78, the Feb 2 high on the continuation chart. On the downside, support to watch is at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 103.59. A clear break of this average is required to highlight a possible reversal.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 118.56 High Jan 19 (cont) and a key resistance
• RES 3: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 2: 118.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 117.17 High Mar 24
• PRICE: 116.40 @ Close Mar 24
• SUP 1: 114.91 Low Mar 24
• SUP 2: 114.43/15 20-day EMA / Low Mar 22
• SUP 3: 113.02 High Mar 9 and a gap low
• SUP 4: 111.79 Low Mar 9

BTP futures traded higher Friday to reach a marginal new weekly high of 117.17. The short-term outlook is bullish and pullbacks are considered corrective. A resumption of gains would open 118.18 next, the Jan 19 high on the continuation chart and a key resistance. Support to watch lies at 113.02, the Mar 9 high and a gap low on the daily chart. Initial firm support is seen at 114.43, the 20-day EMA.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Trading Below Last Week’s High

• RES 4: 4268.00 High Mar 6 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4240.00 High Mar 9
• RES 2: 4184.50 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - 20 bear leg
• RES 1: 4164.00 High Mar 22 and a bull trigger
• PRICE: 4109.00 @ 06:28 GMT Mar 27
• SUP 1: 4034.00 Low Mar 24
• SUP 2: 4009.00/3914.00 61.8% of the Mar 20 - 22 rally / Low Mar 20
• SUP 3: 3865.00 Low Jan 4
• SUP 4: 3750.00 Low Dec 30

Eurostoxx 50 futures remain below last week’s high of 4164.00 on Mar 22 high. The pullback threatens the recent bull theme and signals the possible end of what appears to have been a corrective bounce. A continuation lower would open 4009.50, 61.8% of the Mar 20 22 rally. A move below the 4000.00 handle would expose 3914.00, the Mar 21 low and bear trigger. Key short-term resistance is 4164.00, the Mar 22 high. A break would be bullish.

E-MINI S&P (M3): Testing The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4148.48 76.4% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 13 downleg
• RES 3: 4119.50 High Mar 6
• RES 2: 4089.39 61.8% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 13 downleg
• RES 1: 4021.50/4073.75 50-day EMA / High Mar 22
• PRICE: 4021.25 @ 08:24 GMT Mar 27
• SUP 1: 3937.00/3897.25 Low Mar 24 / 20
• SUP 2: 3839.25 Low Mar 13
• SUP 3: 3822.00 Low Dec 22 and a key support
• SUP 4: 3778.00 Low Nov 3

S&P E-Minis reversed sharply lower last Wednesday. The move down means that price has - so far - failed to remain above pivot resistance at the 50-day EMA. The EMA intersects at 4020.71 and price is again testing this level today. A clear break of it is required to strengthen bullish conditions. Support today lies at 3937.00, the Mar 24 low. A breach would open 3897.25 next, the Mar 20 low. Key short-term resistance is at 4073.75, the Mar 22 high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K3) Resistance At The 20-Day EMA Remains Intact

• RES 4: $84.00 - High Mar 9
• RES 3: $81.01 - 50-day EMA
• RES 2: $78.42 - 20-day EMA
• RES 1: $77.44 - High Mar 23
• PRICE: $75.35 @ 06:56 GMT Mar 27
• SUP 1: $72.68/70.12 - Low Mar 24 / Low Mar 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)
• SUP 3: $65.72 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $64.62 - 1.382 proj of the Nov - Dec - Jan price swing

A downtrend in Brent futures remains intact and last week’s recovery is considered corrective. Note that a move higher has allowed a short-term oversold condition to unwind. Recent weakness resulted in the break of $76.04, Dec 12 low and a key medium-term chart point, confirming a resumption of the bear trend and opens $69.28 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is $78.42, the 20-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (K3) Broader Downtrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: $78.17 - High Mar 9
• RES 3: $75.21 - 50-day EMA
• RES 2: $72.51 - 20-day EMA
• RES 1: $71.67 - High Mar 23
• PRICE: $69.66 @ 07:01 GMT Mar 27
• SUP 1: $66.82/64.36 - Low Mar 24 / 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont) and a key support
• SUP 3: $63.19 - 1.764 proj of the Jan 23 - Feb 6 - Mar 7 price swing
• SUP 4: $58.41 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 23 - Feb 6 - Mar 7 price swing

WTI futures remain in a downtrend and last week’s recovery appears to be a correction. Note that the latest move higher has allowed a recent oversold condition to unwind. Firm resistance is seen at $72.51 the 20-day EMA. Recent weakness confirmed a resumption of the broader downtrend and has paved the way for a move towards $62.43, the Dec 2 2021 low (cont). The bear trigger is $64.36, the Mar 20 low.

GOLD TECHS: Trend Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $2059.2 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 2: $2034.0 - 2.00 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 rally from Feb 28
• RES 1: $2009.7 - High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1968.5 @ 07:15 GMT Mar 27
• SUP 1: $1918.3 - Low Mar 17
• SUP 2: $1915.4 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1880.3 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $1827.8 - Low Mar 10

Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the recent short-term pullback is considered corrective. The breach on Mar 17 of former resistance at $1959.7, Feb 2 high, confirmed a resumption of the bull trend that started late September 2022. The test above $2000.0 opens $2034.0 next, a Fibonacci projection. $1918.3 is seen as a firm support. It is the Mar 17 low and a break would signal scope for a deeper pullback.

SILVER TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: $24.729 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep 2022 bear leg
• RES 3: $24.637 - High Feb 2 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $24.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $23.524 - High Mar 24
• PRICE: $23.029 @ 08:24 GMT Mar 27
• SUP 1: $22.157 - Low Mar 21
• SUP 2: $21.474 - Low Mar 16
• SUP 3: $20.591/19.904 - Low Mar 13 / 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $19.416 - Low Nov 4

Silver remains firm having reversed sharply higher from $19.904, the Mar 10 low and the metal has traded higher again Friday. Price has cleared resistance at the 50-day EMA - the average intersects at $22.050. The clear breach of this EMA strengthens bullish conditions. $23.520, 76.4% of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 downleg, has been pierced. A clear break would open the $24.00 handle. On the downside, $22.157 marks initial firm support, the Mar 21 low.