MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - GBPUSD Weakness Appears Corrective

Price Signal Summary – GBPUSD Weakness Appears Corrective

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish. Recent fresh cycle highs, reinforce current conditions and note that price action continues to highlight the fact that corrections remain shallow. This is an important bullish signal, reflecting positive market sentiment. A bullish trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the contract is trading at its recent highs. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position and this continues to reflect positive market sentiment.
• GBPUSD traded lower Tuesday before recovering from the session low. The recent move down from 1.2894, Mar 8 high, appears to be a correction, however, the pair has pierced support at 1.2686, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. USDJPY bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the pair is trading higher today. Price is through key S/T resistance at 150.89, the Feb 13 high and this confirms a resumption of the uptrend. Sights are on 151.91 and 151.95, the Nov 13 high and Oct 1 ‘22 highs respectively. USDCAD traded higher Tuesday and this delivered a print above key short-term resistance at 1.3606, the Feb 28 high and bull trigger. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started late December last year.
• The trend condition in Gold is bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective and appears to be a bull flag - a continuation pattern. The yellow metal recently cleared $2135.4, the Dec 4 high, to deliver a fresh all-time cycle high. WTI futures traded higher Tuesday and a bull theme remains intact. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of $79.87, Mar 1 high. The move higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend that has been in place since mid-December last year.
• Bund futures are unchanged. The contract remains soft and is trading at its recent lows. A continuation lower would expose key support and the bear trigger at 131.23, the Feb 29 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. Gilt futures remain in a bull-mode position, however, the recent move lower does suggest scope for a deeper retracement. A continuation of the latest sell-off would open 97.67, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this level would expose the key support and the bear trigger at 96.83.

EURUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 1.1034 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Feb 14 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.0998 High Jan 5
• RES 2: 1.0955/981 High Mar 14 / 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.0906 High Mar 18
• PRICE: 1.0868 @ 05:44 GMT Mar 20
• SUP 1: 1.0835 Low Mar 19
• SUP 2: 1.0796 Low Feb 29
• SUP 3: 1.0762/0695 Low Feb 20 / 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.0656 Low Nov 10

A bull theme in EURUSD remains intact, however, a corrective cycle continues to suggest scope for a continuation lower near-term. The pair has pierced the 50-day EMA, at 1.0860. A clear break of the average would open 1.0796, the Feb 29 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains and a break of 1.0981, the Mar 8 high, is required to reinstate the recent uptrend. Initial resistance is at 1.0906, the Mar 18 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Tests Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.2996 High Jul 27 2023
• RES 3: 1.2946 2.00 projection of the Feb 14 - 22 - Mar 1 price swing
• RES 2: 1.2823/2894 High Mar 14 / 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2759 High Mar 15
• PRICE: 1.2719 @ 06:00 GMT Mar 20
• SUP 1: 1.2686/68 50-day EMA / Low Mar 19
• SUP 2: 1.2600 Low Mar 1
• SUP 3: 1.2536 Low Feb 14
• SUP 4: 1.2519 Low Feb 5 and the bear trigger

GBPUSD traded lower Tuesday before recovering from the session low. The recent move down from 1.2894, Mar 8 high, appears to be a correction, however, the pair has pierced support at 1.2686, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open 1.2600, Mar 1 low. Key resistance is at 1.2894. A break of it would resume the uptrend. First resistance is seen at 1.2759, the Mar 15 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Moving Average Remain In A Bear-Mode Position

• RES 4: 0.8676 High Jan 3
• RES 3: 0.8620 High Jan 20
• RES 2: 0.8593 High Jan 19
• RES 1: 0.8578 High Feb 20 and key resistance
• PRICE: 0.8544 @ 06:10 GMT Mar 20
• SUP 1: 0.8504 Low Mar 08
• SUP 2: 0.8493 Low Aug 23 2023 and a key medium-term support
• SUP 3: 0.8454 76.4% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase
• SUP 4: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2023

EURGBP remains in consolidation mode. The trend direction is down and moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position, highlighting a bear cycle with sights on key support at 0.8493, Aug 23 low. Clearance of this level would resume the trend and signal scope for 0.8454, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, key resistance is at 0.8578, the Feb 20 high. A breach of this level would highlight a range break out and a reversal.

USDJPY TECHS: Approaching Major Resistance

• RES 4: 153.39 1.382 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
• RES 3: 152.66 1.236 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
• RES 2: 151.91/95 High Nov 13 / High Oct 1 ‘22 and major resistance
• RES 1: 151.58 Intraday high
• PRICE: 151.56 @ 06:33 GMT Mar 20
• SUP 1: 149.06/148.50 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 147.44 Low Mar 14
• SUP 3: 146.49 Low Mar 08 / 11 and key support
• SUP 4: 145.90 Low Feb 1

USDJPY bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the pair is trading higher today. Price is through key S/T resistance at 150.89, the Feb 13 high and this confirms a resumption of the uptrend. Sights are on 151.91 and 151.95, the Nov 13 high and Oct 1 ‘22 highs respectively. Clearance of this resistance would confirm a resumption of the long-term uptrend. A break would open 152.66, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is 149.06, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Resumes Its Long-Term Uptrend

• RES 4: 166.46 1.236 proj of the Jan 2 - 19 - Feb 1 price swing
• RES 3: 166.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 165.16 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 164.86 1.00 proj of the Jan 2 - 19 - Feb 1 price swing
• PRICE: 164.59 @ 07:03 GMT Mar 20
• SUP 1: 162.09 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 161.17 Trendline drawn from Dec 7 low
• SUP 3: 160.22 Low Mar 11
• SUP 4: 159.47 Low Feb 8

The JPY remains under pressure and EURJPY continues to climb. The cross has cleared key resistance at 163.72, the Feb 26 high and more importantly traded through 164.30, the Nov 16 ‘23 high and the medium-term bull trigger. This confirms a resumption of the long-term uptrend. The break higher opens 164.86, a Fibonacci projection, and the 166.00 handle further out. Initial firm support lies at 162.09, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 0.6729 High Jan 12
• RES 3: 0.6708 61.8% retracement of the Dec 28 - Feb 13 bear cycle
• RES 2: 0.6632/68 High Mar 14 / 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.6584 High Mar 15
• PRICE: 0.6531 @ 07:28 GMT Mar 20
• SUP 1: 0.6504/6478 Low Mar 19 / 5
• SUP 2: 0.6443 Low Feb 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6412 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg
• SUP 4: 0.6360 Low Nov 14

AUDUSD traded lower Tuesday and the pair remains below its recent highs. The latest pullback appears to be a correction, however, the breach of the 50-day EMA does signal scope for an extension and this has exposed support at 0.6478, the Mar 5 low. The bear trigger lies at 0.6443, the Feb 13 low. Clearance of resistance at 0.6668, the Mar 8 high, is required to resume the recent bull cycle and open 0.6708, a Fibonacci retracement.

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 1.3729 76.4% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.3661 High Nov 27
• RES 2: 1.3623 61.8% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.3614 High Mar 19 and bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3588 @ 07:56 GMT Mar 20
• SUP 1: 1.3500/1.3420 50-day EMA / Low Mar 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3359 Low Jan 31 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: 1.3343 Low Jan 12
• SUP 4: 1.3288 Low Jan 5

USDCAD traded higher Tuesday and this delivered a print above key short-term resistance at 1.3606, the Feb 28 high and bull trigger. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started late December last year. This would pave the way for a climb towards 1.3623, a Fibonacci retracement and 1.3661, the Nov 27 ‘23 high. Initial firm support lies at 1.3500, the 50-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M4) Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 134.78 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Feb 29 bear cycle
• RES 3: 134.48 High Feb 5
• RES 2: 133.05/134.15 50-day EMA / High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 132.61 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 131.86 @ 05:19 GMT Mar 20
• SUP 1: 131.54 Low Mar 18
• SUP 2: 131.23 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 131.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 129.88 Bear channel base drawn from the Dec 27 high

Bund futures are unchanged. The contract remains soft and is trading at its recent lows. A continuation lower would expose key support and the bear trigger at 131.23, the Feb 29 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started late December last year. Initial firm resistance to watch is at 133.05, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would be bullish.

BOBL TECHS: (M4) Monitoring Support

• RES 4: 119.050 High Feb 8
• RES 2: 118.790 High Feb 15 and Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 118.460 High Mar 12
• RES 1: 117.973 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 117.590 @ 05:28 GMT Mar 20
• SUP 1: 117.340 Low Mar 18
• SUP 2: 117.200 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 117.000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 116.740 High Mar 5 (cont)

Bobl futures remain soft and the contract is trading just above recent lows. A broader bearish cycle is intact and a continuation lower would open the key support and bear trigger at 117.200, Feb 29 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started early December last year. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on resistance at 118.790, Feb 15 / Mar 8 high. A break would resume the recent corrective phase.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M4) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 106.315 High Feb 8
• RES 3: 106.145 High Feb 15
• RES 2: 106.040 Low Feb 15
• RES 1: 105.761/106.010 20-day EMA / High Mar 8
• PRICE: 105.605 @ 05:49 GMT Mar 20
• SUP 1: 105.515 Low Mar 15
• SUP 2: 105.490 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 105.430 High Feb 20 (cont)
• SUP 4: 105.310 High Feb 26 (cont)

A downtrend in Schatz futures remains intact and the latest pullback reinforces this theme. The move lower refocuses attention on key short-term support and the bear trigger at 105.490, the Feb 29 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started in December last year. For bulls, a reversal higher would open 106.010, the Mar 8 high, where a break is required to resume a bullish corrective phase.

GILT TECHS: (M4) Still In Retracement Mode

• RES 4: 101.00 Round number support
• RES 3: 100.73 1.764 projection of the Feb 29 - Mar 1 - 4 price swing
• RES 2: 100.50 1.618 projection of the Feb 29 - Mar 1 - 4 price swing
• RES 1: 99.35/100.37 High Mar 14 / 12 and a key S/T resistance
• PRICE: 98.73 @ Close Mar 19
• SUP 1: 98.05 Low Mar 15
• SUP 2: 97.67 76.4% retracement of the Feb 29 - Mar 12 rally
• SUP 3: 97.42 Low Mar 1
• SUP 4: 96.83 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger

Gilt futures remain in a bull-mode position, however, the recent move lower does suggest scope for a deeper retracement. A continuation of the latest sell-off would open 97.67, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this level would expose the key support and the bear trigger at 96.83, Feb 29 low. On the upside, key resistance has been defined at 100.37, the Mar 13 high. A breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the recent bull cycle.

BTP TECHS: (M4) Monitoring Support At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 121.65 2.618 proj of the Feb 22 - 26 - 29 price swing
• RES 3: 121.19 2.382 proj of the Feb 22 - 26 - 29 price swing
• RES 2: 120.65 High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 120.28 High Mar 14
• PRICE: 118.70 @ Close Mar 19
• SUP 1: 118.49/33 20-day EMA / Low Mar 15
• SUP 2: 117.72 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 116.15 Low Feb 22 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 116.00 Round number support

BTP futures continue to trade below their recent highs. A short-term bullish theme remains intact following the recovery that started on Feb 22, however, a clear break of support at the 20-day EMA - at 118.49 - would signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 117.72, the 50-day EMA and a key short-term support. Key resistance and the bull trigger is unchanged at 120.65, the Dec 27 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M4) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 5127.70 1.382 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 5074.70 1.236 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 5000.00 Psychological round number
• RES 1: 4988.00 High Mar 14
• PRICE: 4945.00 @ 06:02 GMT Mar 20
• SUP 1: 4876.40 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4826.00 Low Mar 5
• SUP 3: 4771.00 Low Feb 22
• SUP 4: 4711.00 Low Feb 19

A bullish trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the contract is trading at its recent highs. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position and this continues to reflect positive market sentiment. Sights are on the psychological 5000.00 handle. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bullish condition. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 4876.40, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M4) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 5322.11 3.0% Bollinger Band
• RES 3: 5305.35 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 5300.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 5257.25 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 5240.25 @ 07:13 GMT Mar 20
• SUP 1: 5175.27 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 5065.11 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4994.25 Low Feb 13
• SUP 4: 4921.00 Low Jan 31

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish. Recent fresh cycle highs, reinforce current conditions and note that price action continues to highlight the fact that corrections remain shallow. This is an important bullish signal, reflecting positive market sentiment. Support to watch is 5175.27 the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would open 5065.11, the 50-day EMA. Sights are on 5300.00 next.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K4) Northbound

• RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $89.26 - High Sep 15 ‘23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $88.31 - High Oct 20
• RES 1: $87.18 - High Mar 18
• PRICE: $87.17 @ 06:59 GMT Mar 20
• SUP 1: $83.55 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $81.87/76.41 - 50-day EMA / Low Feb 5 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: $74.84 - Low Jan 03
• SUP 4: $73.22 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger

Brent futures traded higher yesterday and a bull cycle remains in play. Price has recently cleared resistance at $84.34, the Mar 1 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started Dec 13. $85.47, the 76.4% retracement of the Sep 15 - Dec 13 bear cycle, has also been cleared, reinforcing bullish conditions and this opens $88.31, the Oct 20 ‘23 high. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at $78.85, the 20-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (K4) Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $84.87 - High Sep 15 ‘23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $83.87 - High Oct 20 ‘23
• RES 1: $83.12 - High Mar 19
• PRICE: $82.39 @ 07:09 GMT Mar 20
• SUP 1: $78.85 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $77.16/71.52 - 50-day EMA / Low Feb 5
• SUP 3: $70.02 - Low Jan 3
• SUP 4: $68.85 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger

WTI futures traded higher Tuesday and a bull theme remains intact. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of $79.87, Mar 1 high. The move higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend that has been in place since mid-December last year. Sights are on $83.87 next, the Oct 20 ‘23 high. A break of this level would open $84.87, the Sep 15 ‘23 high and a key resistance On the downside, support to watch is $78.44, the 20-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Bullish Price Structure

• RES 4: $2253.6 - 1.618 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $2230.1 - 1.50 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2206.6 - 1.382 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 1: $2195.2 - High Mar 8
• PRICE: $2157.6 @ 07:15 GMT Mar 20
• SUP 1: $2121.3 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $2088.5 - High Dec 28
• SUP 3: $2076.2 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $2016.1 - Low Feb 23

The trend condition in Gold is bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective and appears to be a bull flag - a continuation pattern. The yellow metal recently cleared $2135.4, the Dec 4 high, to deliver a fresh all-time cycle high. The break reinforces bullish conditions and opens $2206.6, a Fibonacci projection. S/T conditions are overbought, a deeper retracement would allow this set-up to unwind. Firm support is $2121.3, the 20-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Trend Condition Remains Bullish

• RES 4: $26.222 - High Apr 18 ‘22
• RES 3: $26.135 - High May 5 ‘23 and a key M/T resistance
• RES 2: $25.761 - High Dec 4 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $25.448 - High Mar 15
• PRICE: $24.903 @ 08:00 GMT Mar 20
• SUP 1: $24.073 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $23.548 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $22.277 - Low Feb 28
• SUP 4: $21.928 - Low Jan 22 and a key support

A bullish condition in Silver remains intact and last week’s gains reinforce current conditions. The metal has traded through $24.856, 76.4% of the Dec 4 - Jan 22 bear leg. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards $25.761, the Dec 4 high and the next key resistance. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at $24.073, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.