MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gilt Futures Remain in Bear Mode

Price Signal Summary – Gilt Futures Remain in Bear Mode

• S&P E-minis traded lower Wednesday and this resulted in a test of the 50-day EMA at 4125.79. A clear break of this average would highlight a stronger short-term reversal and expose 4062.25, the May 4 low and a key support. Eurostoxx 50 futures have traded lower this week and the contract remains soft - for now. The 50-day EMA, at 4266.60, has been pierced and this signals scope for weakness towards 4233.00, the May 4 low and a key short-term support.
• GBPUSD bears remain in the driver’s seat and the pair traded lower Thursday. Support at the 50-day EMA has been cleared and price is also through 1.2345, the Apr 10 low. This signals scope for an extension of the bear cycle towards 1.2242 next, a Fibonacci retracement. USDJPY bullish conditions remain intact and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. The 140.00 handle has been pierced and sights are on a key resistance at 140.71, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Jan 16 low. AUDUSD traded lower again Thursday. Price has this week cleared 0.6565, the Mar 10 low, confirming a resumption of the bear cycle that started Feb 2 and highlights a range breakout.
• The bear cycle in Gold remains intact as the yellow metal extends the downtrend that started on Apr 26. This week’s break lower paves the way for a move towards $1933.6, trendline support drawn from Nov 3 2022. WTI futures traded lower Thursday and the pullback means that - for now - the contract has failed to overcome resistance at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at $74.31. Recent short-term gains are considered corrective, however, a clear breach of the 50-day EMA would highlight a stronger bullish theme.
• Bund futures remain in a bear mode condition and the contract traded lower Thursday. Price has pierced key support at 133.10, the Apr 19 low. A clear break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions. This would open 132.71, a Fibonacci retracement ahead of 132.37, the Mar 10 low. Gilt futures remain in a bear mode position and traded lower again Thursday as the contract maintains the current impulsive bear wave. The primary trend direction remains down and moving average studies are in a bear mode position.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Southbound

• RES 4: 1.1007 High May 10
• RES 3: 1.0935 High May 12
• RES 2: 1.0860/64 20- and 50-day EMA values
• RES 1: 1.0831 High May 22
• PRICE: 1.0738 @ 05:31 BST May 26
• SUP 1: 1.0707 Low May 25
• SUP 2: 1.0653 76.4% retracement of the Mar 15 - Apr 26 bull run
• SUP 3: 1.0631 Low Mar 20
• SUP 4: 1.0608 Low Mar 17

EURUSD remains soft and traded lower again Thursday, reinforcing bearish conditions and confirming an extension of the bear cycle. The 1.0713 objective has been breached, the Mar 24 low. This signals scope for an extension towards 1.0653 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. A firm resistance is seen at 1.0860, the 20-day EMA. Clearance of this average is required to ease current bearish pressure.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.2767 61.8% of the Jun 1 ‘21 - Sep 26 ‘22 downtrend
• RES 3: 1.2680 High May 10 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.2547/2641 High May 16 / 11
• RES 1: 1.2405/55 50- and 20-day EMA values
• PRICE: 1.2335 @ 05:50 BST May 26
• SUP 1: 1.2308 Low May 25
• SUP 2: 1.2275 Low Apr 3
• SUP 3: 1.2242 50.0% retracement of the Mar 8 - May 10 bull run
• SUP 4: 1.2213 Low Mar 27

GBPUSD bears remain in the driver’s seat and the pair traded lower Thursday. Support at the 50-day EMA has been cleared and price is also through 1.2345, the Apr 10 low. This signals scope for an extension of the bear cycle towards 1.2242 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 1.2455, the 20-day EMA. A break above this average would signal a possible reversal.

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 0.8875 High Apr 25 and key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 0.8835 High May 3
• RES 2: 0.8758 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8719 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8707 @ 06:10 BST May 26
• SUP 1: 0.8649 76.4% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 2: 0.8593 Low Dec 15 2022
• SUP 3: 0.8562 Low Dec 13 2022
• SUP 4: 0.8547 Low Dec 1 2022 and key support

The EURGBP short-term trend needle continues to point south and the recent consolidation appears to be a bear flag. A clear break of 0.8661, the May 11 low, would confirm a resumption of the trend. Attention is on 0.8649, a Fibonacci retracement and Wednesday’s low, a breach would open 0.8593, the Dec 15 2022 low. Initial firm resistance is at 0.8719 the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA intersects at 0.8758 where a break would signal a reversal.

USDJPY TECHS: Approaching Channel Resistance

• RES 4: 141.61 High Nov 23 2022
• RES 3: 140.71 Bull channel top drawn from the Jan 16 low
• RES 2: 140.69 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 140.23 High May 25
• PRICE: 139.74 @ 06:32 BST May 26
• SUP 1: 138.23 Low May 24
• SUP 2: 137.77 High May 2 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 3: 136.92 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 135.69 Low May 16

USDJPY bullish conditions remain intact and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. The 140.00 handle has been pierced and sights are on a key resistance at 140.71, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Jan 16 low. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position and this highlights the current positive sentiment. On the downside, initial support lies at 137.77, the May 2 high. A short-term pullback would be considered corrective.

EURJPY TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: 152.81 1.50 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 3: 152.00 1.382 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 2: 151.61 High May 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 150.32 76.4% retracement of the May 2 - 11 bear leg
• PRICE: 150.13 @ 06:50 BST May 26
• SUP 1: 148.67 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 147.04/146.13 13 50-day EMA / Low May 11
• SUP 3: 146.05 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 145.67 High Mar 31

EURJPY maintains a short-term bullish tone and the cross has edged higher as it approaches 150.32, a Fibonacci retracement. A break of this level would open 151.61, the May 2 high and a bull trigger. The 50-day EMA, which intersects at 147.04, remains intact and marks a key support. A clear break of this average is required to signal a reversal. Initial support lies at 148.67, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Range Breakout

• RES 4: 0.6818 High May 10 and key resistance
• RES 3: 0.6710 High May 16
• RES 2: 0.6646/84 20- and 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.6574 Low Apr 28
• PRICE: 0.6519 @ 07:24 BST May 26
• SUP 1: 0.6491 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.6403 76.4% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 3: 0.6387 Low Nov 10 2022
• SUP 4: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 2022

AUDUSD traded lower again Thursday. Price has this week cleared 0.6565, the Mar 10 low, confirming a resumption of the bear cycle that started Feb 2 and highlights a range breakout. The focus is on the 0.6403 Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, a breach of 0.6818 is required to reinstate a bullish theme. Initial firm resistance is seen at 0.6684, the 50-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Key Short-Term resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.3805 High Mar 24
• RES 3: 1.3730 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - Apr 14 low
• RES 2: 1.3695 High Mar 28
• RES 1: 1.3668 High Apr 28 and key resistance
• PRICE: 1.3626 @ 08:03 BST May 26
• SUP 1: 1.3485/1.3404 Low May 23 / 16
• SUP 2: 1.3363/15 Low May 11 / 8
• SUP 3: 1.3302 Low Apr 14 and a key near-term support
• SUP 4: 1.3275 Low Feb 14

USDCAD continues to appreciate and a bullish theme remains intact. Sights are set on resistance at 1.3668, the Apr 28 high and a key level. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen the case for bulls and pave the way for a move towards 1.3695, the Apr 28 high. On the downside, initial support lies at 1.3485, the May 23 low. A break of 1.3404, the May 16 low, is required to reinstate a bearish threat.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 137.29 High May 11
• RES 3: 136.38 High May 16
• RES 2: 135.44 High May 18
• RES 1: 134.84 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 133.07 @ 05:10 BST May 26
• SUP 1: 132.95 Low May 25
• SUP 2: 132.71 76.4%retracement of the Mar 2 - 20 rally
• SUP 3: 132.37 Low Mar 10
• SUP 4: 131.07 Low Mar 9

Bund futures remain in a bear mode condition and the contract traded lower Thursday. Price has pierced key support at 133.10, the Apr 19 low. A clear break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions. This would open 132.71, a Fibonacci retracement ahead of 132.37, the Mar 10 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 134.84, the 20-day EMA. A breach of this average is required to ease bearish pressure.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Approaching Key Support

• RES 4: 119.120 High May 4 and key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 118.610/119.020 High May 16 / 11
• RES 2: 118.240 High May 17
• RES 1: 117.661 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 116.690 @ 05:31 BST May 26
• SUP 1: 116.590 Low May 25
• SUP 2: 116.420 Low Apr 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 116.170 Low Mar 13
• SUP 4: 115.700 Low Mar 10

The short-term outlook in Bobl futures remains bearish and the contract traded to a fresh short-term trend low yesterday. The extension lower opens 116.420, Apr 19 low and bear trigger. A break would strengthen bearish conditions and signal scope for a move towards 116.170, the Mar 13 low. On the upside, a firm resistance is seen at 117.661, the 20-day EMA. A breach of this average would ease bearish pressure.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 106.020/106.120 High May 11 / 4
• RES 3: 105.910 High May 16
• RES 2: 105.775 High May 17
• RES 1: 105.591 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 105.240 @ 05:47 BST May 26
• SUP 1: 105.210 Low May 25
• SUP 2: 105.165 Low Apr 19 / 24 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 105.030 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 104.960 Low Mar 13

A bearish cycle in Schatz futures remains in play and the contract traded to a fresh short-term cycle low yesterday. This marks an extension of the recent breach of 105.705, the May 10 low, and signals scope for a move towards 105.165 next, the Apr 19 / 24 low and a bear trigger. A break of this support would strengthen bearish conditions. Initial firm resistance is seen at 105.591, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Impulsive Bear Wave Extends

• RES 4: 99.73 Low Apr 19
• RES 3: 99.32 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 99.21 High May 19
• RES 1: 96.74/97.98 High May 24 / 23
• PRICE: 94.67 @ Close May 25
• SUP 1: 94.46 Low May 25
• SUP 2: 93.92 3.236 projection of the May 3 - 10 - 11 price swing
• SUP 3: 93.27 3.382 projection of the May 3 - 10 - 11 price swing
• SUP 4: 93.00 Round number support

Gilt futures remain in a bear mode position and traded lower again Thursday as the contract maintains the current impulsive bear wave. The primary trend direction remains down and moving average studies are in a bear mode position. Sights are set on 93.92 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is at Wednesday’s high of 96.74. Note that the trend is oversold, a corrective bounce would allow this condition to unwind.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Eyeing Key Support

• RES 4: 116.97 High Apr 6
• RES 3: 116.17 76.4% retracement of the Mar 24 - Apr 24 downleg
• RES 2: 115.48/89 High May 16 / 11
• RES 1: 114.65 High May 22
• PRICE: 113.55 @ Close May 25
• SUP 1: 112.93/89 Low Apr 24 / 61.8% of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
• SUP 2: 111.88 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
• SUP 3: 111.05 Low Mar 8
• SUP 4: 110.79 Low Mar 7

A bearish threat in BTP futures remains present. The contract has recently traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Support at 113.91, the May 10 low, has also been breached. This signals scope for an extension lower towards key support at 112.93, the Apr 24 low. A breach of this level would strengthen bearish conditions. Key short-term resistance is at 115.89, the May 11 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Challenging Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4510.50 0.618 proj of the Mar 20 - Apr 21 - May 4 price swing
• RES 3: 4457.50 0.5 proj of the Mar 20 - Apr 21 - May 4 price swing
• RES 2: 4448.00 High Jan 2008 (cont)
• RES 1: 4409.50 High Nov 18 2021 (cont) and a major resistance
• PRICE: 4277.00 @ 05:59 BST May 26
• SUP 1: 4252.00 Low May 25
• SUP 2: 4233.00 Low May 4 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 4175.00 Low Mar 30
• SUP 4: 4164.00 High Mar 22

Eurostoxx 50 futures have traded lower this week and the contract remains soft - for now. The 50-day EMA, at 4266.60, has been pierced and this signals scope for weakness towards 4233.00, the May 4 low and a key short-term support. A break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions. On the upside the bull trigger is at 4409.50, the Nov 18 2021 high (cont) and a major resistance.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M3) Corrective Bear Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 4288.00 High Aug 19 2022
• RES 3: 4244.00 High Feb 2 and a medium-term bull trigger
• RES 2: 4231.00 High Feb 3
• RES 1: 4227.25 High May 19
• PRICE: 4153.75 @ 07:09 BST May 26
• SUP 1: 4114.00 Low May 24
• SUP 2: 4062.25 Low May 4 and key support
• SUP 3: 4052.50 Low Mar 30
• SUP 4: 4022.75 50.0% retracement of the Mar 13 - May 1 bull leg

S&P E-minis traded lower Wednesday and this resulted in a test of the 50-day EMA at 4125.79. A clear break of this average would highlight a stronger short-term reversal and expose 4062.25, the May 4 low and a key support. Price did recover yesterday. A continuation higher would refocus attention on initial key resistance at 4227.25, the May 19 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend that started on Mar 13.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N3) Resistance At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact

• RES 4: $85.08 - High Apr 18
• RES 3: $85.08 - High Apr 18
• RES 2: $82.88 - High Apr 25
• RES 1: $78.46/80.53 - 50-day EMA / High Apr 28
• PRICE: $76.09 @ 06:55 BST May 26
• SUP 1: $73.49/71.28 - Low May 15 / 4
• SUP 2: $70.10 - Low Mar 20 and a key support
• SUP 3: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $65.72 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)

Brent futures traded lower Thursday. The pullback means that resistance at the 50-day EMA which intersects at $78.46, remains intact. A clear break of the EMA is required to strengthen a short-term bullish theme and this would open $80.53, the Apr 28 high. On the downside, a breach of $73.49, the May 15 low, would be seen as a bearish development and set the scene for an extension towards $71.28.

WTI TECHS: (N3) Finds Resistance

• RES 4: $80.93 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $79.00 - High Apr 24
• RES 2: $76.74 - High Apr 28
• RES 1: $74.31/73 - 50-day EMA / High May 24
• PRICE: $71.83 @ 07:00 BST May 26
• SUP 1: $69.39/63.90 - Low May 15 / 4
• SUP 2: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)
• SUP 3: $60.00 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $57.63 - Low Apr 5 2021 (cont)

WTI futures traded lower Thursday and the pullback means that - for now - the contract has failed to overcome resistance at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at $74.31. Recent short-term gains are considered corrective, however, a clear breach of the 50-day EMA would highlight a stronger bullish theme and expose $76.74, the Apr 28 high. Support to watch lies at $69.39, the May 15 low. A break would be bearish.

GOLD TECHS: Approaching Trendline Support

• RES 4: $2075.5 - All-Time High Aug 7 2020
• RES 3: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $2022.6/2063.0 - High May 12 / 4 and key resistance
• RES 1: $1986.1 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $1947.9 05:59 BST May 26
• SUP 1: $1933.6 - Trendline support drawn from the Nov 3 2022
• SUP 2: $1903.5 - 61.8% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle
• SUP 3: $1885.8 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: $1865.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle

The bear cycle in Gold remains intact as the yellow metal extends the downtrend that started on Apr 26. This week’s break lower paves the way for a move towards $1933.6, trendline support drawn from Nov 3 2022. A clear break of the trendline would reinforce bearish conditions and open $1903.5, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $2063.0, May 4 high. Initial firm resistance is $1985.3, the May 24 high.

SILVER TECHS: Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: $26.771 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $26.135 - High May 5
• RES 1: $24.071/492 - 20-day EMA / Apr 25 low
• PRICE: $22.996 @ 07:14 BST May 26
• SUP 1: $22.682 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $22.284 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally
• SUP 3: $22.157 - Low Mar 21
• SUP 4: $21.375 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally

Silver bears remain in the driver’s seat. The May 11 sell-off confirmed a double top reversal pattern following the break of $24.492, the Apr 25 low. The subsequent bearish extension has reinforced the importance of this reversal signal. Sights are set on $22.284 next, a Fibonacci retracement level. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at $24.492, the double top mid-point.