MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gilt Futures Retain Uptrend

Price Signal Summary – Gilt Futures Retain Uptrend

• S&P E-Minis traded lower Wednesday and a key short-term resistance has been defined at 4035.25, the Jan 17 high. Attention is on support at 3931.73, the 50-day EMA. A break of this average would highlight a potential bearish reversal and expose support at 3891.50, the Jan 10 low. EUROSTOXX 50 futures bullish conditions remain intact and the recent shallow pullback is considered corrective. Futures have recently cleared resistance at 4043.00, the Dec 13 high and a bull trigger.
• USDJPY rallied Wednesday following the BoJ decision. However, the pair stalled at resistance around the 20-day EMA which intersects at 131.45 today. The reversal from yesterday’s high reinforces the current bearish theme and attention is on support at 127.23, the Jan 16 low. AUDUSD has pulled back from yesterday’s high of 0.7063 and the pair is trading lower today. Short-term weakness is considered corrective - for now. Attention is on support at 0.6863, the 20-day EMA. USDCAD rallied into the Wednesday close, rebuffing the bearish threat after an extended period closer to recent lows. The pair has pierced resistance at 1.3502, the 50-day EMA.
• Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the yellow metal traded to a fresh cycle high earlier this week. This confirmed an extension on the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. WTI futures traded higher yesterday but price has reversed lower from the $82.38 session high. Attention is on support at $77.47, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would highlight a stronger bear threat and expose support at $72.46, the Jan 5 low.
• Bund futures remain in an uptrend and the contract traded higher Wednesday to confirm a resumption of the bull cycle. The move higher maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Gilt futures remain in an uptrend and the contract traded higher Wednesday. This confirms a resumption of the short-term uptrend and has resulted in a break of 105.20, the 76.4% retracement of the Nov 24 - Dec 28 bear leg.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bulls Pause For Breath

• RES 4: 1.1022 3.00 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - Oct 13 price swing
• RES 3: 1.0954 High Apr 11, 2022
• RES 2: 1.0913 2.764 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - Oct 13 price swing
• RES 1: 1.0887 High Jan 18
• PRICE: 1.0793 @ 05:46 GMT Jan 19
• SUP 1: 1.0700 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0634 Low Jan 9
• SUP 3: 1.0533/1.0484 50-day EMA / Low Jan 6
• SUP 4: 1.0406 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band

EURUSD pulled back again from another new high yesterday, maintaining the sell-on-rallies theme evident over the past week. Nonetheless, the recent move lower is likely a correction and the outlook remains bullish. The recent break of 1.0787, May 30 2022 high, maintains the bullish price sequence and MA studies continue to highlight a bullish backdrop. Sights are on 1.0913, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is at 1.0700, the 20-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Key Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.2599 High Jun 7
• RES 3: 1.2558 High Jub 9, 2022
• RES 2: 1.2506 1.382 proj of the Sep 26 - Oct 5 - Oct 12 price swing
• RES 1: 1.2446 High Dec 14 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2343 @ 06:25 GMT Jan 19
• SUP 1: 1.2154/2083 20-day EMA / Low Jan 9
• SUP 2: 1.2053/2017 1.0% 10-dma envelope / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.1842 Low Jan 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.1779 Low Nov 21

GBPUSD remains firm. The pair traded higher Wednesday and in the process cleared short-term resistance at 1.2303, the 76.4% retracement of the Dec 14 - Jan 6 bear leg. The clear breach exposes 1.2446, the Dec 14 high and a key resistance. Clearance of this level would strengthen bullish conditions. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 1.2083, the Jan 9 low. The 20-day EMA at 1.2154, is first support.

EURGBP TECHS: Trades Through The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 0.8992 61.8% Retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.8980 High Sep 29
• RES 2: 0.8907 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8804/97 High Jan 18 / 13 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.8753 @ 06:36 GMT Jan 19
• SUP 1: 0.8735 Low Jan 18
• SUP 2: 0.8691 Low Dec 19
• SUP 3: 0.8630 76.4% retracement of the Dec 1 - Jan 13 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.8593 Low Dec 15

EURGBP traded lower Wednesday, extending Tuesday’s bearish session and the cross remains weaker. Price has traded below the 50-day EMA, at 0.8755. This represents a key short-term support and a clear break of it would undermine the recent bull phase and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 0.8691 initially, the Dec 19 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.8897, the Jan 13 high.

USDJPY TECHS: Support And Bear Trigger Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 134.87 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 134.77/81 High Jan 6 / 23.6% Oct - Jan downleg
• RES 2: 132.87 High Jan 11
• RES 1: 131.45/58 20-day EMA / High Jan 18
• PRICE: 1127.86 @ 06:55 GMT Jan 19
• SUP 1: 127.23 Low Jan 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 126.81 1.382 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 15 - 21 price swing
• SUP 3: 126.36 Low May 24 and a key support
• SUP 4: 125.49 1.50 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 15 - 21 price swing

USDJPY rallied Wednesday following the BoJ decision. However, the pair stalled at resistance around the 20-day EMA which intersects at 131.45 today. The reversal from yesterday’s high reinforces the current bearish theme and attention is on support at 127.23, the Jan 16 low. A break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 126.81, a Fibonacci projection. Clearance of 131.58, yesterday’s high, would be bullish.

EURJPY TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 143.16 61.8% retracement of the Dec 15 - Jan 3 bear leg
• RES 3: 142.86/94 High Jan 11 / High Dec 28 and key resistance
• RES 2: 141.69 High Jan 18
• RES 1: 140.62/141.69 20-day EMA / High Jan 18
• PRICE: 138.09 @ 07:02 GMT Jan 19
• SUP 1: 137.92 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 137.39 Low Jan 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 137.03 Low Aug 29
• SUP 4: 136.02 Low Aug 25

A strong rally in EURJPY yesterday failed to signal a short-term reversal and instead, the move from yesterday’s high leaves support at 137.39 exposed, the Jan 3 low and bear trigger. A break lower would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 137.03, Aug 29 low. Moving average studies remain in a bear mode position and this highlights a dominant downtrend. Key resistance is at the 141.69/142.86 zone, the Jan 18 and 11 highs respectively.

AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 0.7200 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 0.7137 High Aug 11
• RES 2: 0.7063 High Jan 18
• RES 1: 0.7063 High Jan 18 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6887 @ 08:03 GMT Jan 19
• SUP 1: 0.6863 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.6769 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.6688 Low Jan 3 and key support
• SUP 4: 0.6650 Low Dec 22

AUDUSD has pulled back from yesterday’s high of 0.7063 and the pair is trading lower today. Short-term weakness is considered corrective - for now. Attention is on support at 0.6863, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would signal scope for a deeper pullback and potentially open 0.6769, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of 0.7063 is required to confirm a resumption of recent bullish activity.

USDCAD TECHS: Pierces The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.3751 High Nov 4
• RES 3: 1.3705 Dec 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.3665 High Jan 6
• RES 1: 1.3518 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.3500 @ 08:08 GMT Jan 19
• SUP 1: 1.3322 Low Jan 13
• SUP 2: 1.3317 Low Nov 24 / 25
• SUP 3: 1.3226 Low Nov 15 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally

USDCAD rallied into the Wednesday close, rebuffing the bearish threat after an extended period closer to recent lows. The pair has pierced resistance at 1.3502, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this area would signal potential for a stronger recovery near-term and open 1.3665, the Jan 6 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 1.3322, the Jan 13 low. A break would resume recent bearish activity.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H3) Resumes Its Uptrend

• RES 4: 142.91 High Dec 7 and key resistance
• RES 3: 142.55 High Dec 8
• RES 2: 141.70 High Dec 13
• RES 1: 140.68 High Jan 18
• PRICE: 140.53 @ 05:09 GMT Jan 19
• SUP 1: 138.97 Low Jan 18
• SUP 2: 137.53 Low Jan 16 and a key short-term support
• SUP 3: 136.46 Low Jan 11
• SUP 4: 136.04 Low Jan 10

Bund futures remain in an uptrend and the contract traded higher Wednesday to confirm a resumption of the bull cycle. The move higher maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Furthermore, price has breached all retracement points of the Dec 7 - Jan 3 bear leg, reinforcing current bullish conditions. Sights are on 141.70 next, the Dec 13 high. On the downside, initial firm support is at 137.53, the Jan 16 low.

BOBL TECHS: (H3) Northbound

• RES 4: 119.490 High Dec 13
• RES 3: 119.310 High Dec 14
• RES 2: 119.086 76.4% retracement of the Dec 7 - Jan 2 downleg
• RES 1: 118.840 Intraday high
• PRICE: 118.800 @ 05:16 GMT Jan 19
• SUP 1: 118.00 Round number support
• SUP 2: 117.560 Low Jan 16 and a key support
• SUP 3: 117.170 Low Jan 11
• SUP 4: 116.950 Low Jan 10

Bobl futures trend conditions remain bullish and this week’s gains reinforce the current positive outlook. The move higher marks an extension of the recent break of the 20-day EMA - a bullish development - signalling potential for a continuation higher near-term. Attention is on 119.086 next, 76.4% of the Dec 7 - Jan 2 downleg. Initial firm support to watch lies at 117.560, the Jan 16 low. A break of this level would signal a likely reversal.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H3) Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 106.517 76.4% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 2 bear leg
• RES 3: 106.370 Low Dec 12
• RES 2: 106.296 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 2 bear leg
• RES 1: 106.155 High Jan 18
• PRICE: 106.100 @ 06:01 GMT Jan 18
• SUP 1: 105.862 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 105.735 Low Jan 16
• SUP 3: 105.375 Low Jan 11
• SUP 4: 105.625 Low Jan 10

Schatz futures maintain a positive short-term tone and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. Price has recently cleared the 20-day EMA and this reinforced short-term bullish conditions. The focus is on a climb towards 106.296, 61.8% of the Dec 2 - Jan 2 bear leg. On the downside, the firm support to watch lies at 105.735, the Jan 16 low. A break would signal a potential reversal.

GILT TECHS: (H3) Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 107.06 High Nov 24 and key resistance
• RES 3: 106.18 High Dec 12
• RES 2: 106.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 105.71 High Jan 18
• PRICE: 104.98 @ Close Jan 18
• SUP 1: 103.21/102.78 Low Jan 17 / High Jan 6
• SUP 2: 102.19/101.40 Low Jan 11 / 10
• SUP 3: 99.97 Low Jan 3
• SUP 4: 99.18 Low Dec 28 and the bear trigger

Gilt futures remain in an uptrend and the contract traded higher Wednesday. This confirms a resumption of the short-term uptrend and has resulted in a break of 105.20, the 76.4% retracement of the Nov 24 - Dec 28 bear leg. The break higher paves the way for gains towards 107.06, the Nov 24 high and a key resistance. On the downside, initial firm support has been defined at 103.21, the Jan 17 low.

BTP TECHS: (H3) Approaching Key Resistance

• RES 4: 120.73 0.764 proj of the Dec 30 - Jan 12 - 16 price swing
• RES 3: 120.00 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 118.96 High Dec 7 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 118.33 High Jan 18
• PRICE: 118.04 @ Close Jan 18
• SUP 1: 116.03 Low Jan 18
• SUP 2: 114.46/114.05 Low Jan 16 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 111.59 Low Jan 6
• SUP 4: 110.77 Low Jan 4

The current bull cycle in BTP futures remains intact and the contract traded higher again Wednesday. All retracement points of the Dec 7 - 30 bear cycle have been cleared and this signals scope for a test of key resistance at 118.96, the Dec 7 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen bullish conditions. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 114.46, the Jan 16 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H3) Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 4269.50 2.236 proj of the Sep 29 - Oct 4 rise from Dec 20 low
• RES 3: 4230.50 High Feb 10, 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: 4215.00 2.00 proj of the Sep 29 - Oct 4 rise from Dec 20 low
• RES 1: 4204.00 Intraday high
• PRICE: 4158.00 @ 05:35 GMT Jan 19
• SUP 1: 4043.00 High Dec 13
• SUP 2: 4031.30/3915.80 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 3: 3753.00 Low Dec 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 3720.00 Low Nov 10

EUROSTOXX 50 futures bullish conditions remain intact and the recent shallow pullback is considered corrective. Futures have recently cleared resistance at 4043.00, the Dec 13 high and a bull trigger. The break marks a key short-term positive development and paves the way for gains towards 4215.00 next, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition, reinforcing the bull theme. Initial firm support is 4015.70.

E-MINI S&P (H3): Monitoring Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4194.25 High Sep 13
• RES 3: 4180.00 High Dec 13 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 4090.75 High Dec 14
• RES 1: 4035.25 High Jan 18
• PRICE: 3937.25 @ 07:10 GMT Jan 19
• SUP 1: 3931.73/3891.50 50-day EMA / Low Jan 10
• SUP 2: 3788.50/78.45 Low Dec 22 / 61.8% of Oct 13-Dec 13 uptrend
• SUP 3: 3735.00 Low Nov 3
• SUP 4: 3670.00 76.4% retracement of the Oct 13 - Dec 13 uptrend

S&P E-Minis traded lower Wednesday and a key short-term resistance has been defined at 4035.25, the Jan 17 high. Attention is on support at 3931.73, the 50-day EMA. A break of this average would highlight a potential bearish reversal and expose support at 3891.50, the Jan 10 low. On the upside, the contract needs to clear 4035.25 to cancel any developing bearish threat and instead confirm a resumption of recent bullish activity.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (H3) Watching Support At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: $92.43 - High Nov 16
• RES 3: $90.49 - High Nov 17
• RES 2: $89.18 - High Dec 1
• RES 1: $87.85 - High Jan 3 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $84.00 @ 05:54 GMT Jan 19
• SUP 1: $82.99/77.61 - 20-day EMA / Low Jan 5
• SUP 2: $75.64 - Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $73.73 - 1.00 proj of the Nov 7 - 28 - Dec 1 price swing
• SUP 4: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)

Brent futures have pulled back from yesterday's short-term trend high of $87.85. The move lower refocuses attention on support at $82.99, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would highlight a possible bearish reversal and expose support at $77.61, the Jan 5 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $87.85 where a break is required to cancel any bearish threat and instead confirm a resumption of recent bullish activity.

WTI TECHS: (G3) Key Short-Term Resistance Defined at $82.38

• RES 4: $86.26 - 76.4% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 9 bear leg
• RES 3: $84.10 - High Nov 17
• RES 2: $83.27 - High Dec 1 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $82.38 - High Jan 18
• PRICE: $78.62 @ 07:02 GMT Jan 19
• SUP 1: $77.47/72.46 - 20-day EMA / Low Jan 5
• SUP 2: $70.31 - Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $68.19 - 1.236 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing
• SUP 4: $65.47 - 1.382 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing

WTI futures traded higher yesterday but price has reversed lower from the $82.38 session high. Attention is on support at $77.47, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would highlight a stronger bear threat and expose support at $72.46, the Jan 5 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at $82.38 where a break would reinstate the recent bullish theme.

GOLD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: $1998.4 - High Apr 18, 2022
• RES 3: $1982.0 - High Apr 19, 2022
• RES 2: $1963.0 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep 2022 bear leg
• RES 1: $1934.4 - High Apr 25, 2022
• PRICE: $1909.0 @ 07:25 GMT Jan 19
• SUP 1: $1874.4/60.5 - Low Jan 12 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1825.2 - Low Jan 5 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: $1797.1 - Low Dec 28
• SUP 4: $1774.0 - Low Dec 15

Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the yellow metal traded to a fresh cycle high earlier this week. This confirmed an extension on the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note that moving average studies are in a bull mode position - reflecting the uptrend. The focus is on $1934.4 next, the Apr 25, 2022 high. Support to watch lies at $1860.5, the 20-day EMA. Short-term pullbacks are considered corrective.

SILVER TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish

• RES 4: $26.002 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $25.293 - High Apr 20
• RES 2: $24.729 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 1: $24.548 - High Jan 3 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $23.516 @ 08:13 GMT Jan 19
• SUP 1: $22.741 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $22.557 - Low Dec 16 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: $20.872 - Low Nov 28
• SUP 4: $20.585 - Low Nov 21

The uptrend in Silver remains bullish and this week’s move lower is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position and fresh trend highs in December reinforced the positive theme. Furthermore, the move higher has maintained the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on $24.729, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support is at $22.557, the Dec 16 low.