MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gilt MA Studies Highlight Bear Mode Setup

Price Signal Summary – Gilt MA Studies Highlight Bear Mode Setup

• The short-term trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and remains bearish. Yesterday’s move lower reinforces the current condition - the contract has traded through support at the 50-day EMA and this signals scope for a continuation lower near-term. Eurostoxx 50 futures are trading lower today. A bearish corrective cycle remains in play and the move down this month is allowing an overbought trend condition to unwind. The contract is approaching support at 4856.40, the 50-day EMA.
• EURUSD remains in a bear-mode condition and the pair is again trading lower. Last Friday’s move down resulted in a break of key support at 1.0695, the Feb 14 low and bear trigger. This breach confirms a resumption of the downtrend. EURGBP is unchanged and the cross is trading within this year’s broad range. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance at 0.8602, Mar 22 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a continuation of the recovery that started Feb 14. AUDUSD remains vulnerable following last week’s move lower. Yesterday’s bearish start to the week reinforces current conditions and the pair is trading lower today. Key support at 0.6443, the Feb 13 low, has been cleared and this confirms a resumption of the downtrend.
• The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and the yellow metal is trading closer to its recent highs. The latest rally maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition. A bull theme in WTI futures remains intact and the latest move lower is considered corrective - for now. Recent gains reinforced current bullish conditions and confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. The contract has breached $84.87, the Sep 15 ‘23 high.
• The trend outlook in Bund futures remains bearish and last Friday’s bounce appears to have been a correction. A resumption of weakness would open 131.23, Feb 29 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a continuation of the downtrend that started late last year. A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact and the contract traded lower Monday, delivering a fresh cycle low of 96.71. The move down maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies have crossed and highlight a bear-mode set-up.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 1.0943 High Mar 21
• RES 3: 1.0885 High Apr 09
• RES 2: 1.0785/0820 20- and 50-day EMA values
• RES 1: 1.0725 Low Apr 2
• PRICE: 1.0612 @ 05:44 BST Apr 16
• SUP 1: 1.0606 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.0611 76.4% retracement of the Oct - Dec bull rally
• SUP 3: 1.0568 Low Nov 2 ‘23
• SUP 4: 1.0537 1.00 proj of the Dec 28 - Feb 14 - Mar 8 price swing

EURUSD remains in a bear-mode condition and the pair is again trading lower. Last Friday’s move down resulted in a break of key support at 1.0695, the Feb 14 low and bear trigger. This breach confirms a resumption of the downtrend. Support at 1.0611, 76.4% of the Oct - Dec bull rally, has been pierced and this opens 1.0568 next, the Nov 2 2023 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.0785, the 20-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Heading South

• RES 4: 1.2865 High Mar 11
• RES 3: 1.2803 High Mar 21
• RES 2: 1.2603/2709 20-day EMA / High Apr 09
• RES 1: 1.2540 Low Apr 2 / 1
• PRICE: 1.2433 @ 05:53 BST Apr 16
• SUP 1: 1.2421 Low Apr 12
• SUP 2: 1.2364 61.8% retracement of the Oct 4 - Mar 8 bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.2266 Low Nov 14 ‘23
• SUP 4: 1.2239 76.4% retracement of the Oct 4 - Mar 8 bull leg

A bearish theme in GBPUSD remains intact. Support at 1.2519, the Feb 5 low and a bear trigger, has been breached. The clear break strengthens a bearish theme and highlights a stronger reversal signal. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up and this highlights a downtrend. Scope is seen for an extension towards 1.2364, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at 1.2709, the Apr 10 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Trading In A Range

• RES 4: 0.8678 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 bear cycle
• RES 3: 0.8620 High Jan 20
• RES 2: 0.8607 23.6% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 bear cycle
• RES 1: 0.8586/8602 High Apr 05 / High Mar 22 and key resistance
• PRICE: 0.8537 @ 16:27 BST Apr 15
• SUP 1: 0.8527/8504 Low Apr 15 / Low Mar 8
• SUP 2: 0.8498/93 Low Feb 14 / Low Aug 23 2023 and key support
• SUP 3: 0.8454 76.4% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase
• SUP 4: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2023

EURGBP is unchanged and the cross is trading within this year’s broad range. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance at 0.8602, Mar 22 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a continuation of the recovery that started Feb 14 and open 0.8678, a Fibonacci retracement point. Support to watch is 0.8527, Apr 15 low. A clear break would expose key support at 0.8498/93, Feb 14 and Aug 23 2023 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Bulls Remain IN The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 155.29 1.764 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
• RES 3: 155.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 154.56 1.618 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
• RES 1: 154.45 High Apr 15
• PRICE: 154.26 @ 16:28 BST Apr 15
• SUP 1: 152.59 Low Apr 12
• SUP 2: 151.84/150.41 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 3: 149.03 Low Mar 19
• SUP 4: 147.44 Low Mar 14

The USDJPY bull cycle remains in play and Monday’s extension reinforces current conditions. The break higher last week confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position too. Yesterday’s break of 154.00 opens 154.56 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at 151.84, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Watching Trendline Support

• RES 4: 167.34 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 166.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 165.35 High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 165.17 High Apr 09
• PRICE: 163.86 @ 06:54 BST Apr 16
• SUP 1: 163.24/162.28 Trendline from Dec 7 ‘23 low / Low Apr 12
• SUP 2: 161.07 Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: 160.72 38.2% retracement of the Dec 7 ‘23 - Mar 20 rally
• SUP 4: 160.22 Low Mar 11

Last week’s move lower in EURJPY resulted in a print below key support at 163.24 - the trendline drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low. The breach appears to be a false one and the cross traded higher Monday. A clear break of this trendline is required to highlight a S/T reversal and this would also highlight a break of the 50-day EMA, at 162.74. For bulls, key resistance is 165.35, the Mar 20 high. Clearance of this hurdle resumes the primary uptrend.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 0.6644 High Apr 9
• RES 3: 0.6552 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 0.6537 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.6481 Low Apr 1 and a recent breakout level
• PRICE: 0.6420 @ 08:10 BST Apr 16
• SUP 1: 0.6408 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.6360 Low Nov 14
• SUP 3: 0.6339 Low Nov 10 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6315 Low Oct 31

AUDUSD remains vulnerable following last week’s move lower. Yesterday’s bearish start to the week reinforces current conditions and the pair is trading lower today. Key support at 0.6443, the Feb 13 low, has been cleared and this confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started late December last year. Scope is seen for an extension towards 0.6339, the Nov 10 ‘23 low. Firm resistance is seen at 0.6552, the 50-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13 ‘22 and a key M/T resistance
• RES 3: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3855 High Nov 10 2023
• RES 1: 1.3814 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.3797 @ 08:18 BST Apr 16
• SUP 1: 1.3682 Low Apr 12
• SUP 2: 1.3613 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3558 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4

USDCAD bulls remain in the driver’s seat and last week’s break higher confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend and this week’s positive start reinforces current conditions. The pair has cleared resistance and congestion at 1.3614, the Mar 19, 22, 25 and 29 high. Sights are in 1.3855 next, the Nov 10 ‘23 high. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear rising trend. Initial firm support lies at 1.3613, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M4) Trend Conditions Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 134.48 High Feb 5
• RES 3: 134.15 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 133.48/69 High Mar 27 / 12
• RES 1: 133.05 High Apr 12
• PRICE: 132.02 @ 05:11 BST Apr 16
• SUP 1: 131.31 Low Apr 11
• SUP 2: 131.23 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 130.60 1.50 proj of the Dec 27 - Feb 29 - Mar 8 price swing
• SUP 4: 130.00 Round number support

The trend outlook in Bund futures remains bearish and last Friday’s bounce appears to have been a correction. A resumption of weakness would open 131.23, Feb 29 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a continuation of the downtrend that started late last year and open 130.60, a Fibonacci projection. MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a downtrend. On the upside, a break of 133.48, Mar 27 high, reinstates a bullish theme.

BOBL TECHS: (M4) Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 119.050 High Feb 8
• RES 2: 118.790 High Feb 15 and Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 118.460 High Mar 12
• RES 1: 118.100/118.310 High Apr 12 / High Mar 27
• PRICE: 117.650 @ 05:33 BST Apr 16
• SUP 1: 117.200/160 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger / Low Apr 11
• SUP 2: 117.000 Round number support
• SUP 3: 116.740 High Mar 5 (cont)
• SUP 4: 116.518 1.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing

A bearish threat in Bobl futures remains present and last Friday’s strong gains appear - for now - to have been a correction. Key support to watch lies at 117.200, the Feb 29 low. It has recently been pierced, a clear break would confirm a continuation of the downtrend that started early December last year and open 116.740, the Mar 5 high (cont). For bulls, a break of resistance at 118.310, the Mar 27 high, would instead highlight a short-term reversal.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M4) Bearish Trend Condition

• RES 4: 106.040 Low Feb 15
• RES 3: 106.010 High Mar 8
• RES 2: 105.790/875 High Mar 25 and key resistance / High Mar 12
• RES 1: 105.680 High Apr 12
• PRICE: 105.575 @ 05:43 BST Apr 16
• SUP 1: 105.355 Low Apr 11
• SUP 2: 105.310 High Feb 26 (cont)
• SUP 3: 105.295 1.236 proj of the Aug 8 - Mar 18 - Mar 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 105.106 1.382 proj of the Aug 8 - Mar 18 - Mar 25 price swing

The trend condition in Schatz futures remains bearish and last week’s move lower reinforces current conditions. The move higher last Friday is considered corrective - for now. The break of support at 105.490, Feb 29 / Apr 9 low and bear trigger, confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started late December last year. The focus is on 105.295, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 105.790, the Mar 25 high.

GILT TECHS: (M4) Fresh Cycle Low

• RES 4: 99.37 High Apr 4
• RES 3: 99.10 High Apr 10
• RES 2: 98.43 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 98.23 High Apr 12
• PRICE: 96.56@ 08:23 BST Apr 16
• SUP 1: 96.53 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 96.30 1.618 proj of the Mar 12 - 15 - 22 price swing
• SUP 3: 95.96 1.764 proj of the Mar 12 - 15 - 22 price swing
• SUP 4: 95.41 2.00 proj of the Mar 12 - 15 - 22 price swing

A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact and the contract traded lower Monday, delivering a fresh cycle low of 96.71. The move down maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies have crossed and highlight a bear-mode set-up. Scope is seen for an extension towards 96.30 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is 98.23, the Apr 12 high.

BTP TECHS: (M4) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 121.19 2.382 proj of the Feb 22 - 26 - 29 price swing
• RES 3: 120.65 High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 119.55/120.28 High Mar 27 / 14
• RES 1: 119.10 High Apr 10
• PRICE: 117.51 @ Close Apr 15
• SUP 1: 117.10 Low Apr 3
• SUP 2: 116.52 Low Feb 29
• SUP 3: 116.15 Low Feb 22 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 116.00 Round number support

A bearish threat in BTP futures remains present. Recent weakness resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA and a breach of 118.33, the Mar 15 low. The break signals scope for an extension lower. A continuation of the downleg would open 116.52, the Feb 29 low and 116.15, the Feb 22 low and a key support. On the upside, clearance of resistance at 119.55, the Mar 27 high, would instead reinstate a bull cycle.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M4) Approaching Key Support

• RES 4: 5170.50 1.50 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 5127.70 1.382 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 5100.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4990.00/5079.00 High Apr 15 / 2 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4875.00 @ 06:11 BST Apr 16
• SUP 1: 4861.00 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 4856.40 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4826.00 Low Mar 5
• SUP 4: 4800.00 Round number support

Eurostoxx 50 futures are trading lower today. A bearish corrective cycle remains in play and the move down this month is allowing an overbought trend condition to unwind. The contract is approaching support at 4856.40, the 50-day EMA and this level marks the next key pivot price point. A clear break of the EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Initial resistance to watch is 4990.00, the Apr 15 high.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M4) Clears The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 5400.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 5285.00/5333.50 High Apr 10 / 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 5221.49 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 5159.12 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 5095.25 @ 07:24 BST Apr 16
• SUP 1: 5081.25 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 5100.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 5070.36 38.2% retracement of the Oct 27 ‘23 - Apr 1 bull leg
• SUP 4: 5018.00 Low Feb 21

The short-term trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and remains bearish. Yesterday’s move lower reinforces the current condition - the contract has traded through support at the 50-day EMA and this signals scope for a continuation lower near-term. Sights are on 5070.36 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would open 5018.00, the Feb 21 low. Firm resistance is seen at 5221.49, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M4) Trend Structure Remains Bullish

• RES 4: $96.16 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 3: $94.94 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 2: $92.96 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 1: $92.18 - High Apr 12
• PRICE: $90.68 @ 06:59 BST Apr 16
• SUP 1: $88.10 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $85.08 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $79.70 - Low Feb 26
• SUP 4: $76.18 - Low Feb 5 and key S/T support

Brent futures are in consolidation mode. A bull cycle is in play and the contract continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, highlighting a clear uptrend. Last Friday’s fresh trend high reinforces bullish conditions and short-term weakness is considered corrective. A resumption of gains would open $92.96, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is $88.10, the 20-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (K4) Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: $91.15 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 3: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 2: $89.08 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 1: $87.67 - High Apr 11
• PRICE: $85.84 @ 07:14 BST Apr 16
• SUP 1: $83.86 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $80.88/76.43 - 50-day EMA / Low Mar 11
• SUP 3: $71.52 Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $70.02 - Low Jan 3

A bull theme in WTI futures remains intact and the latest move lower is considered corrective - for now. Recent gains reinforced current bullish conditions and confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. The contract has breached $84.87, the Sep 15 ‘23 high, paving the way for a climb towards the $90.00 handle further out. The next objective is $89.08, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at $83.86, the 20-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs

• RES 4: $2500.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $2481.5 - 1.764 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2452.5 - 2.618 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 1: $2431.5 High Apr 12
• PRICE: $2386.3 @ 07:19 BST Apr 16
• SUP 1: $2319.5/2276.1 - Low Apr 10 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $2184.0 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $2146.2 - Low Mar 18 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: $2088.5 - High Dec 28

The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and the yellow metal is trading closer to its recent highs. The latest rally maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition, reflecting positive market sentiment. The next objective is $2452.5, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is at $2276.1, the 20-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Trend Signals Remain Bullish

• RES 4: $30.912 - 3.00 proj of the Oct 3 - 20 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $30.100 - Feb 2021 high and a key resistance
• RES 2: $30.000 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $29.797 - High Apr 12
• PRICE: $28.428 @ 08:22 BST Apr 16
• SUP 1: $27.535/26.632 - Low Apr 10 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $25.175/328 - 50-day EMA / Low Mar 27
• SUP 3: $22.277 - Low Feb 28
• SUP 4: $21.928 - Low Jan 22 and a key support

Despite the pullback in Silver from Friday’s high, the trend outlook remains bullish. Fresh trend highs last week and a bullish moving average set-up, reinforce the current positive trend condition. The latest rally signals scope for a climb towards the $30.00 psychological handle. Initial firm support lies at $26.632, the 20-day EMA. A move lower in the metal would be considered corrective.