MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gilt Weakness Puts Prices Through Late-Aug Support

Price Signal Summary – Gilt Weakness Puts Prices Through Late-Aug Support

• The E-mini S&P contract traded lower yesterday. Key resistance has been defined at 4547.75, Sep 1 high. A break is required to reinstate the recent bullish theme. Note that recent gains in the contract stalled at the area of resistance around the former bull channel base. Eurostoxx 50 futures continue to pull back from the recent high. Attention is on support at 4225.00, the Aug 24 low. Clearance of this level would signal scope for a test of the key support at 4187.00.
• GBPUSD traded lower yesterday as the bear cycle extended. This week’s move through support at 1.2548, the Aug 25 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The USDJPY trend condition remains bullish and the pair is holding on to this week’s gains. Resistance at 147.37, the Aug 29 high and a bull trigger, has been cleared. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 148.40 next, the Nov 4 2022 high. The AUDUSD trend condition remains bearish following Tuesday’s sharp sell-off. The move lower resulted in a print below key support and the bear trigger at 0.6365, the Aug 17 low.
• Gold traded lower again yesterday. Key support to watch lies at $1903.9, the Aug 25 low. A break of this level would be viewed as a bearish development and highlight the fact that the recovery between Aug 21 - Sep 1 has been a correction. The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact. The recent break of resistance at $84.16, the Aug 10 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and this maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note that moving average studies are in a bull mode position.
• Bund futures traded lower again Wednesday. This week’s move has resulted in a break of support at 131.18, the Aug 28 low. The move lower undermines the recent bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement. Gilt futures traded lower Wednesday. This week’s slide has resulted in a break of support at 94.14, the Aug 29 low. The breach undermines the recent bullish theme and highlights potential for a deeper retracement with next support at 93.12.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trading At Its Recent Lows

• RES 4: 1.1065 High Aug 10 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.1005 High Aug 11
• RES 2: 1.0848/1.0945 20-day EMA / High Aug 30 and reversal trigger
• RES 1: 1.0789 Former channel support-now-resistance
• PRICE: 1.0719 @ 05:50 BST Sep 7
• SUP 1: 1.0703 Low Sep 6
• SUP 2: 1.0668 Low Jun 7
• SUP 3: 1.0635 Low May 31 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0611 38.2% Fib retracement Sep’22 - Jul’23 upleg

EURUSD conditions remain bearish and the pair is trading at its recent lows. This week’s bull channel breakout reinforces the current bearish condition and opens 1.0668 next, the Jun 7 low. The channel is drawn from the Mar 15 low. Note that moving average studies remain in a bear mode set-up highlighting the market's current sentiment. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.0945, the Aug 30 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Price Sequence

• RES 4: 1.2887 High Jul 28
• RES 3: 1.2819 High Aug 10 and a reversal trigger
• RES 2: 1.2746 High Aug 30 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.2659/2695 20- and 50-day EMA values
• PRICE: 1.2499 @ 06:16 BST Sep 07
• SUP 1: 1.2480 1.50 projection of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing
• SUP 2: 1.2433 Low Jun 8
• SUP 3: 1.2369 Low Jun 5
• SUP 4: 1.2308 1.764projection of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing

GBPUSD traded lower yesterday as the bear cycle extended. This week’s move through support at 1.2548, the Aug 25 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear mode position highlighting a downtrend. The focus is on 1.2480, a Fibonacci projection, and 1.2433, the Jun 8 low. Initial resistance is at 1.2659, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Moving Average Studies Highlight A Downtrend

• RES 4: 0.8701 High Jul 19 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8669 High Aug 11
• RES 2: 0.8627 100-dma
• RES 1: 0.8587/8611 50-day EMA / High Aug 30
• PRICE: 0.8577 @ 06:32 BST Sep 7
• SUP 1: 0.8524 Low Sep 06
• SUP 2: 0.8493 Low Aug 23 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8486 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 0.8454 61.8% retracement of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 2022 bull leg

Despite yesterday’s gains, EURGBP maintains a softer short-term tone and remains below 0.8611, the Aug 30 high. Gains have recently stalled above the 50-day EMA - at 0.8587. A clear break of this average and 0.8611 is required to strengthen a short-term bullish theme. For now, moving average studies continue to highlight a medium-term downtrend, the bear trigger lies at 0.8493, Aug 23 low. First key support lies at 0.8524, the Sep 5 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 148.85 High Oct 31 2022
• RES 3: 148.60 2.236 projection of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 148.40 High Nov 4 2022
• RES 1: 147.87 Intraday high
• PRICE: 147.56 @ 06:45 BST Sep 07
• SUP 1: 145.73/144.45 20-day EMA /
• SUP 2: 144.45 Low Sep 1 and key support
• SUP 3: 143.78 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 142.41 Low Aug 8

The USDJPY trend condition remains bullish and the pair is holding on to this week’s gains. Resistance at 147.37, the Aug 29 high and a bull trigger, has been cleared. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 148.40 next, the Nov 4 2022 high. On the downside, 144.45 represents the key short-term support, the Sep 1 low. A break of this level would highlight a short-term top and signal scope for a deeper correction.

EURJPY TECHS: Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 160.66 2.382 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 160.00 Psychological handle
• RES 2: 159.92 2.236 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 159.76 High Aug 30 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 158.17 @ 06:58 BST Sep 7
• SUP 1: 156.87 Low Aug 23
• SUP 2: 156.72 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 155.11 Low Jul 31
• SUP 4: 154.61 61.8% retracement of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 rally

EURJPY is unchanged. The recent pullback is considered and the trend outlook remains bullish. The next bull trigger is 159.76, the Aug 30 high and a clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. On the downside, key support to watch is the 50-day EMA - at 156.72. A clear breach of this EMA would undermine the uptrend and highlight a possible short-term reversal.

AUDUSD TECHS: Testing The Bear Trigger

• RES 4: 0.6616 High Aug 16
• RES 3: 0.6548 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.6522 High Aug 30 and Sep 1
• RES 2: 0.6465 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6389 @ 07:26 BST Sep 7
• SUP 1: 0.6357 Low Sep 6
• SUP 2: 0.6287 2.00 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 2022 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6215 2.236 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing

The AUDUSD trend condition remains bearish following Tuesday’s sharp sell-off. The move lower resulted in a print below key support and the bear trigger at 0.6365, the Aug 17 low. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and pave the way for weakness towards 0.6272, the Nov 3 2022 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.6522, the Aug 30 and Sep 1 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Approaching Trendline Resistance

• RES 4: 1.3805 High Mar 24
• RES 3: 1.3722 Trendline resistance drawn from the Oct 13 2022 high
• RES 2: 1.3719 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 1.3676 High Sep 6
• PRICE: 1.3638 @ 07:57 BST Sep 7
• SUP 1: 1.3533/3490 20-day EMA / Low Sep 1
• SUP 2: 1.3443 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3352 Low Aug 7
• SUP 4: 1.3266 Low Aug 2

USDCAD is trading at this week’s high and the outlook remains bullish. The pair has pierced 1.3655, the May 26 high. A clear break of this level would expose 1.3722, a trendline resistance drawn from the Oct 13 2022 high and represents a key resistance. On the downside, key support has been defined at 1.3490. A reversal lower and a break of this level would signal a short-term top.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z3) Bear Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 132.91 High Aug 8
• RES 3: 132.78 High Sep 1
• RES 2: 131.82 High Sep 4
• RES 1: 131.43 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 130.52 @ 05:16 BST Sep 7
• SUP 1: 130.38 Low Sep 6
• SUP 2: 129.93 Low Aug 21
• SUP 3: 129.72 Low Aug 15 and key support
• SUP 4: 129.30 1.00 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 8 price swing

Bund futures traded lower again Wednesday. This week’s move has resulted in a break of support at 131.18, the Aug 28 low. The move lower undermines the recent bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement. Furthermore, the contract has breached support at 130.71, the Aug 23 low. A continuation would expose 129.72, the Aug 15 low and a key support. Key resistance is at 132.91, the Aug 8 high.

BOBL TECHS: (Z3) Trades Through Support

• RES 4: 117.640 High Aug 8
• RES 3: 117.610 High Sep 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 117.230 High Sep 4
• RES 1: 116.960 High Sep 5
• PRICE: 116.390 @ 05:21 BST Sep 7
• SUP 1: 116.320 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 116.170 Low Aug 21
• SUP 3: 116.000 Low Aug 15
• SUP 4: 115.620 1.236 retracement of the Aug 15 - Sep 1 climb

Bobl futures have pulled back from the Sep 1 high of 117.610. Yesterday’s extension resulted in a break of support at 116.610, the Aug 28 low. The breach undermines the recent bullish theme. Note that support at 116.500, the Aug 23 low, has also been cleared, strengthening the current bearish condition. A continuation would expose 116.00, the Aug 15 low. On the upside, a move above 117.610 would reinstate a bullish theme.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z3) Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 105.704 1.236 projection of the Aug 15 - 24 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: 105.580 High Aug 24 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 105.440 High Sep 4
• RES 1: 105.395 High Sep 5
• PRICE: 105.165 @ 05:45 BST Sep 7
• SUP 1: 105.130 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 105.041 1.236 proj of the Aug 24 - 30 - Sep 1 price swing
• SUP 3: 105.000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 104.980 1.382 proj of the Aug 24 - 30 - Sep 1 price swing

Schatz futures maintain a bearish tone and have extended the pullback from the early September high. The contract has breached support at 105.160, the Aug 30 low and this strengthens the current bearish theme. The move lower signals scope for a move towards 105.041, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial resistance is at 105.395, the Sep 5 high. Key resistance has been defined at 105.580, the Aug 24 high.

GILT TECHS: (Z3) Bear Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 96.19 High Jul 31(cont)
• RES 3: 95.82 High Aug 10 (cont)
• RES 2: 94.81/95.79 High Sep 4 / 1
• RES 1: 94.55 High Sep 5
• PRICE: 93.63 @ Close Sep 6
• SUP 1: 93.36 Low Sep 6
• SUP 2: 93.12 61.8 retracement of the Aug 17 - Sep 1 rally
• SUP 3: 92.56 Low Aug 23
• SUP 4: 91.47 Low Aug 17 and key support

Gilt futures traded lower Wednesday. This week’s slide has resulted in a break of support at 94.14, the Aug 29 low. The breach undermines the recent bullish theme and highlights potential for a deeper retracement with next support at 93.12, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, key short-term resistance is 95.79, the Sep 1 high. Clearance of this would reinstate a bullish theme.

BTP TECHS: (Z3) Approaching Key Support

• RES 4: 118.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 117.48/60 High Jul 19 / Jun 26 and key resistance (cont)
• RES 2: 116.86 High Jul 24 (cont)
• RES 1: 114.18/115.56 20-day EMA / High Aug 24 and a bull trigger
• PRICE: 112.81@ Close Sep 6
• SUP 1: 112.60 Low Aug 17 and a key support
• SUP 2: 112.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 111.38 2.618 proj of the Aug 24 - 28 - 31 price swing
• SUP 4: 110.77 3.00 proj of the Aug 24 - 28 - 31 price swing

BTP futures traded lower yesterday extending the latest steep sell-off. The contract has cleared support at 113.97, the Aug 28 low and the continuation lower exposes 112.60, the Aug 17 low and a key support point. Clearance of this level would strengthen bearish conditions. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 114.18, the 20-day EMA. Key resistance is at 115.56, the Aug 24 high where a break is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U3) Pullback Extends

• RES 4: 4513.00 High Jul 31 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 4420.00 High Aug 10
• RES 2: 4358.00/4388.50 Aug 30 high / 61.8% Jul 31-Aug 18 downleg
• RES 1: 4296.40 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 4230.00 @ 06:22 BST Sep 7
• SUP 1: 4225.00 Low Aug 24
• SUP 2: 4187.00 Low Aug 18 and key support
• SUP 3: 4177.40 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 31 bull leg
• SUP 4: 4122.00 Low Mar 28

Eurostoxx 50 futures continue to pull back from the recent high. Attention is on support at 4225.00, the Aug 24 low. Clearance of this level would signal scope for a test of the key support at 4187.00, the Aug 18 low and bear trigger. Moving average studies continue to highlight a downtrend. For bulls, clearance of resistance at 4358.00, the Aug 30 high, would reinstate a bullish theme.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U3) Pullback Extends

• RES 4: 4634.50 High Jul 27 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4593.50 High Aug 2
• RES 2: 4560.75 High Aug 4
• RES 1: 4547.75 High Sep 1
• PRICE: 4459.75 @ 07:13 BST Sep 7
• SUP 1: 4433.50 Low Aug 29
• SUP 2: 4350.00 Low Aug 18 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4344.28 38.2% retracement of the Mar 13 - Jul 27 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 4305.75 Low Jun 8

The E-mini S&P contract traded lower yesterday. Key resistance has been defined at 4547.75, Sep 1 high. A break is required to reinstate the recent bullish theme. Note that recent gains in the contract stalled at the area of resistance around the former bull channel base - drawn from the Mar 13 low. The line intersects at 4542.44. This is a bearish development and a continuation lower would expose key support at 4350.00, the Aug 18 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (X3) Northbound

• RES 4: $96.95 - High Nov 14 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: $94.79 - High Nov 16
• RES 2: $92.91 - High Nov 17 2022 (cont)
• RES 1: $91.15 - High Sep 5
• PRICE: $90.30 @ 07:02 BST Sep 7
• SUP 1: $85.97 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $83.12 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $77.84 - Low Jul 17
• SUP 4: $76.68 - Low Jul 10

Brent futures are holding on to the bulk of their recent gains and the outlook remains bullish. The contract has breached the psychological $90.00 handle. A continuation would set the scene for gains towards $92.91, the Nov 17 2022 high (cont). On the downside, initial firm support to watch is at the 20-EMA which intersects at $85.97 today. A pullback in the contract would be considered corrective.

WTI TECHS: (V3) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: $94.66 - 2.236 proj of the Jun 28 - Jul 13 - Jul 17 price swing
• RES 3: $92.17 - High Nov 8 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $88.08 - Yesterday’s high
• PRICE: $87.24 @ 07:06 BST Sep 7
• SUP 1: $82.04/79.13 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: $73.60 - Low Jul 17
• SUP 3: $69.72 - Low Jul 3
• SUP 4: $66.83 - Low Jun 12 and key support

The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact. The recent break of resistance at $84.16, the Aug 10 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and this maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note that moving average studies are in a bull mode position, highlighting current positive sentiment. Sights are on the psychological $90.00 handle. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at $82.04, the 20-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Watching Support

• RES 4: $1999.6 - Low May 5
• RES 3: $1987.5 - High Jul 20 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $1963.3 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 20 - Aug 21 bear leg
• RES 1: $1931.4/53.0 - 50-day EMA / High Sep 4 and key resistance
• PRICE: $1919.1 @ 07:07 BST Sep 7
• SUP 1: $1903.9 - Low Aug 25
• SUP 2: $1884.9 - Low Aug 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $1871.6 - Low Mar 13
• SUP 4: $1865.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull leg

Gold traded lower again yesterday. Key support to watch lies at $1903.9, the Aug 25 low. A break of this level would be viewed as a bearish development and highlight the fact that the recovery between Aug 21 - Sep 1 has been a correction. This would expose $1884.9, the Aug 21 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at $1931.4, the 50-day EMA. Key resistance is at $1953.0, the Sep 4 high.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Extension

• RES 4: $26.135 - High May 5 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: $26.267 - High Jul 20 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $25.149 - High Jul 27
• RES 1: $24.020/25.014 - High Sep 5 / High Aug 30
• PRICE: $23.088 @ 08:03 BST Sep 7
• SUP 1: $23.006 - Low Sep 6
• SUP 2: $22.667 - Low Aug 21
• SUP 3: $22.227 - Low Aug 15 and key support
• SUP 4: $22.111 - Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger

Silver traded lower yesterday and maintains a softer tone. The metal has breached $23.413, the Aug 23 low. The clear break of this level threatens the recent bullish theme and instead signals scope for a deeper pullback, potentially towards $22.227, the Aug 15 low. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on resistance at $25.014 and $26.267, the Aug 30 and Jul 20 highs respectively. The latter is a key resistance.