MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Global Stock Weakness Exposes Key Support

Price Signal Summary – Global Stock Weakness Exposes Key Support

• S&P E-Minis sold off Thursday and the contract is trading lower once again today. Price has cleared key short-term support at 3925.00, the Mar 2 low and this confirms a resumption of the bear cycle that has been in place since the Feb 2 reversal. Eurostoxx 50 futures are trading lower today. Price has moved below a key support at 4249.30 - the base of a bull channel drawn from the Oct 13 low. A clear break of this channel base would threaten the uptrend that has been in place since late September last year.
• GBPUSD remains vulnerable following Tuesday's sell-off and short-term gains are considered corrective. The break lower has resulted in a print below key support at 1.1842, the Jan 6 low. The USDJPY trend outlook is unchanged and remains bullish. This week’s break of 137.09, Mar 2 high, confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend and attention is on resistance at 138.17, the Dec 15 high and the next key short-term hurdle. AUDUSD is unchanged. The downtrend remains intact and Tuesday’s sell-off reinforces and strengthens a bearish theme. The break lower confirmed a bear flag formation on the daily chart and prices have cleared key support at 0.6629, the Dec 20 low.
• Trend conditions in Gold remain bearish and Tuesday’s strong sell-off reinforces this theme. The move lower signals the end of the recent corrective bounce and attention is on support at $1804.9, the Feb 28 low. A sharp sell-off in WTI futures Tuesday has defined a key resistance at $80.94, Feb 7 high. A break of this hurdle is required to reinstate the recent bullish theme that would open $82.89, the Jan 23 high and a key resistance.
• Bund futures have reversed sharply higher and the contract is trading firmer today. The strong impulsive rally is fast unwinding a recent oversold trend condition. Price has cleared the 20-day EMA and the focus is on the 134.00 handle next ahead of 134.57, a Fibonacci retracement point. Gilt futures remain above 99.20, the Feb 28 low and the contract is trading higher today. The gap higher at today’s open, strengthens a short-term bullish theme and suggests scope for a stronger corrective bounce.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 1.0803 High Feb 14 and key resistance
• RES 3: 1.0745 High Feb 15
• RES 2: 1.0694 High Mar 6 / 7 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 1.0639 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0588 @ 06:11 GMT Mar 10
• SUP 1: 1.0525 Low Mar 8
• SUP 2: 1.0484 Low Jan 6 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.0461 38.2% retracement of the Sep 28 - Feb 2 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.0409/0387 Trendline support / 2.0% 10-dma envelope

Short-term gains in EURUSD are considered corrective. The pair remains vulnerable. Attention is on 1.0533, the Feb 27 low. This level has been pierced, a clear break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 1.0484, the Jan 6 low and a key support. A trendline support lies at 1.0409 - the line is drawn from the Sep 28 low. Key resistance is unchanged at 1.0694, the Mar 6 and 7 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Double Top Reversal Threat Still Present

• RES 4: 1.2147 High Feb 21 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2060 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.2011 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.1939 High Mar 9
• PRICE: 1.1922 @ 06:34 GMT Mar 10
• SUP 1: 1.1804 Low Mar 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.1727 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 1.1711 Low Nov 14 2022
• SUP 4: 1.1647 38.2% retracement of the Sep 26 - Jan 23 bull phase

GBPUSD remains vulnerable following Tuesday's sell-off and short-term gains are considered corrective. The break lower has resulted in a print below key support at 1.1842, the Jan 6 low. A clear breach of this level would highlight a potential medium-term reversal and confirm a double top pattern on the daily frequency. This would open 1.1647, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.2011, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 0.9066 High Sep 28
• RES 3: 0.8992 61.8% retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1bear leg
• RES 2: 0.8979 High Feb 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8929 High Feb 17
• PRICE: 0.8877 @ 06:44 GMT Mar 10
• SUP 1: 0.8858/29 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 0.8755 Low Feb 28 and key support and 100-dma
• SUP 3: 0.8722 Low Jan 19 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.8712 61.8% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull leg

EURGBP short-term conditions remain bullish despite the pullback from its recent highs. The cross has this week cleared resistance at a trendline drawn from the early February highs - the line intersects at 0.8854 today. A resumption of gains would open 0.8929, Feb 17 high. Note that moving average studies are in a bull mode position, highlighting a bull trend. On the downside, a break of 0.8755, Feb 28 low would reinstate a bearish threat.

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Continues To Point North

• RES 4: 141.61 High Nov 23
• RES 3: 140.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 139.59 50.0% retracement of the Oct 21 and Jan 16 bear leg
• RES 1: 138.17/25 High Dec 15 / 2.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• PRICE: 136.79 @ 06:49 GMT Mar 10
• SUP 1: 135.37 Low Mar 6
• SUP 2: 135.14 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 134.23 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 132.90 High Feb 6

The USDJPY trend outlook is unchanged and remains bullish. This week’s break of 137.09, Mar 2 high, confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend and attention is on resistance at 138.17, the Dec 15 high and the next key short-term hurdle. Clearance of this level would reinforce bullish conditions. Further out, scope is seen for a climb towards 139.59, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm support lies at 135.37.

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 147.75 High Oct 31
• RES 3: 147.10 High Nov 9 2022
• RES 2: 146.73 High Dec 15 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 145.80 76.4% retracement of the Oct 21 - Jan 3 bear leg
• PRICE: 144.69 @ 06:58 GMT Mar 10
• SUP 1: 143.63 Low Mar 9
• SUP 2: 142.87/15 50-day EMA / Low Feb 24 and a key support
• SUP 3: 141.52 Low Feb 14
• SUP 4: 140.14 Low Feb 13

The latest pullback in EURJPY is likely a correction and the shallow pullback appears to be a bull flag. Trend conditions are bullish and recent gains maintain the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 145.80, a Fibonacci retracement and 146.73, the Dec 15 high. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 142.15, the Feb 24 low. First support lies at 143.63, Thursday’s low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bears Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 0.6865 High Feb 22
• RES 3: 0.6819 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 0.6747/84 20-day EMA / High Mar 1 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6695 Low Mar 1
• PRICE: 0.6590 @ 07:22 GMT Mar 10
• SUP 1: 0.6547 61.8% retracement of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 2: 0.6500 Round number support
• SUP 3: 0.6425 2.00 projection of the Feb 2 - 6 - 14 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6403 76.4% retracement of the Oct - Feb bull cycle

AUDUSD is unchanged. The downtrend remains intact and Tuesday’s sell-off reinforces and strengthens a bearish theme. The break lower confirmed a bear flag formation on the daily chart and prices have cleared key support at 0.6629, the Dec 20 low. This signals potential for weakness towards 0.6547, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 0.6784, the Mar 1 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Rally Extends

• RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3935 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.3898 High Oct 14
• RES 1: 1.3855 High Oct 21
• PRICE: 1.3842 @ 08:07 GMT Mar 10
• SUP 1: 1.3705/3665 High Dec 16 / High Feb 24
• SUP 2: 1.3596 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3521 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.3442 Low Feb 20 / 21

USDCAD maintains a firmer tone and this week’s rally has strengthened a bullish theme - the pair higher today. Price has cleared the bull trigger at the Dec 16 high of 1.3705 and has also traded above 1.3800. Scope is seen for gains towards the 2.0% 10-dma envelope of 1.3935. Initial support is seen at 1.3705, the recent breakout level. A pullback would be considered corrective and would allow an overbought trend condition to unwind.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Strong Reversal

• RES 4: 135.57 61.8% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 2 bear leg
• RES 3: 134.57 50.0% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 2 bear leg
• RES 2: 134.30 High Feb 24
• RES 1: 134.00 Round number resistance
• PRICE: 133.71 @ 05:19 GMT Mar 10
• SUP 1: 132.37 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 131.07 Low Mar 9
• SUP 3: 130.35 Low Mar 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 130.00 Psychological round number

Bund futures have reversed sharply higher and the contract is trading firmer today. The strong impulsive rally is fast unwinding a recent oversold trend condition. Price has cleared the 20-day EMA and the focus is on the 134.00 handle next ahead of 134.57, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, initial support lies at today’s intraday low of 132.37. A break of this support is required to highlight a bearish threat once again.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Clears The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 117.230 High Feb 14
• RES 3: 117.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 116.060 High Feb 28
• RES 1: 116.510 Intraday high
• PRICE: 116.270 @ 05:32 GMT Mar 10
• SUP 1: 116.020 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 115.700 Intraday low
• SUP 3: 114.820 Low Mar 9
• SUP 4: 114.740 Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger

Bobl futures have traded sharply higher and the contract is firm today - price has cleared the 20-day EMA. The impulsive rally is very quickly unwinding a recent oversold condition in the downtrend. The move higher has exposed key short-term resistance at 116.890, the Feb 24 high where a break would strengthen bullish conditions. On the downside, support is seen at 115.700, today’s intraday low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Strong Short-Term Reversal

• RES 4: 105.345 High High Feb 16
• RES 3: 105.260 High Feb 24 and key resistance
• RES 2: 105.060 High Feb 27
• RES 1: 105.00 Round number resistance
• PRICE: 104.920 @ 05:51 GMT Mar 10
• SUP 1: 104.695 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 104.335 Low Mar 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 104.307 4.764 proj of the Jan 18 - Feb 1 - Feb 2 price swing
• SUP 4: 104.000 Round number support

Schatz futures are trading sharply higher today as the contract extends the rally from this week’s low of 104.335 (Mar 9). The rally is allowing a recent oversold trend condition to unwind. Sights are on the 105.00 handle next where a break would signal scope for a climb towards a key short-term resistance at 105.260, the Feb 25 high. On the downside, initial firm support is at today's intraday low of 104.695.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Gaps Higher

• RES 4: 103.01 2.618 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 6 - Mar 7 price swing
• RES 3: 102.63 High Feb 15
• RES 2: 102.20 High Feb 20
• RES 1: 102.00 Round number resistance
• PRICE: 101.99 @ 08:12 GMT Mar 10
• SUP 1: 101.62 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 100.91 High Mar 9 high and a gap low
• SUP 3: 100.06 Low Mar 9
• SUP 4: 99.32 Low Mar 7

Gilt futures remain above 99.20, the Feb 28 low and the contract is trading higher today. The gap higher at today’s open, strengthens a short-term bullish theme and suggests scope for a stronger corrective bounce. Price is testing resistance at 101.92, the Feb 24 high and a key short-term resistance. A clear break would open 102.20, the Feb 20 high. On the downside, initial support is seen at 100.91, the Mar 9 high and a gap low on the daily chart.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 116.35 High Feb 3
• RES 3: 116.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 115.08 High Feb 9
• RES 1: 114.47 Intraday high
• PRICE: 113.70 @ 08:17 GMT Mar 10
• SUP 1: 110.79 Low Mar 7
• SUP 2: 110.25 Low Mar 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 110.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 109.55 1.618 proj of the Feb 20 - 22 - 24 price swing

BTP futures have started today’s session on a firm note and the contract has gapped higher at the open. This has resulted in a break of a key short-term resistance at 113.43, the Feb 24 high. The move strengthens short-term bullish conditions and a continuation higher would open resistance at 115.08, the Feb 9 high. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at 113.02, Thursday’s high and a gap low on the daily chart.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H3) Trading Below Bull Channel Support

• RES 4: 4446.00 3.00 proj of the Sep 29 - Oct 4 rally from Dec 20 low
• RES 3: 4409.50 High Nov 18 2021 and a major resistance
• RES 2: 4381.50 High Jan 5 2022 (cont)
• RES 1: 4328.00 High Mar 6 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4227.00 @ 05:43 GMT Mar 10
• SUP 1: 4216.00 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 4175.00/4167.40 Low Feb 24 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 3955.00 Low Jan 5
• SUP 4: 3753.00 Low Dec 20 and a key support

Eurostoxx 50 futures are trading lower today. Price has moved below a key support at 4249.30 - the base of a bull channel drawn from the Oct 13 low. A clear break of this channel base would threaten the uptrend that has been in place since late September last year. An initial downside objective would be 4167.40, the 50-day EMA. Key resistance has been defined at the 4328.00, the Mar 6 high and the bull trigger.

E-MINI S&P (H3): Bear Cycle Resumed

• RES 4: 4168.50 High Feb 16
• RES 3: 4100.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4082.50 High Mar 6
• RES 1: 4015.27 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 3891.00 @ 06:13 GMT Mar 10
• SUP 1: 3869.38 50.0% retracement of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 2: 3788.50 Low Dec 22 and a key support
• SUP 3: 3735.00 Low Nov 3
• SUP 4:3690.32 76.4% retracement of the Oct - Feb bull cycle

S&P E-Minis sold off Thursday and the contract is trading lower once again today. Price has cleared key short-term support at 3925.00, the Mar 2 low and this confirms a resumption of the bear cycle that has been in place since the Feb 2 reversal. The move lower signals potential for an extension towards the 3800.00 handle and support at 3788.50, the Dec 22 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 4015.27, the 50-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K3) Remains Soft

• RES 4: $91.48 - High Nov 14
• RES 3: $90.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $88.78 - High Jan 23 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $84.00/86.75 - High Mar 9 / 7 and a key resistance
• PRICE: $80.96 @ 06:56 GMT Mar 10
• SUP 1: $80.25 - Low Feb 23
• SUP 2: $78.84 - Low Feb 6
• SUP 3: $77.76 - Low Jan 5
• SUP 4: $76.04 - Low Dec 12 and the bear trigger

Brent futures remain soft and price is trading lower today. The contract stalled at $86.75 on Tuesday and this level represents a key near-term resistance. A break of this hurdle is required to reinstate the recent bullish theme. Key short-term support lies at $80.25, the Feb 23 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bearish threat and open $78.48, the Feb 6 low. Initial resistance is at $84.00, Thursday’s high.

WTI TECHS: (J3) Heading South

• RES 4: $86.05 - High Feb 14
• RES 3: $85.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $82.89 - High Jan 23 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $78.06/80.94 - High Mar 9 / 7 and key resistance
• PRICE: $74.90 @ 07:04 GMT Mar 10
• SUP 1: $73.80 - Low Feb 22 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: $72.64 - Low Feb 6
• SUP 3: $70.86 - Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $70.00 - Psychological round number

A sharp sell-off in WTI futures Tuesday has defined a key resistance at $80.94, Feb 7 high. A break of this hurdle is required to reinstate the recent bullish theme that would open $82.89, the Jan 23 high and a key resistance. The contract is trading lower today, extending this week’s bearish move and sights are on $73.80, the Feb 22 low. A breach of this level would strengthen a bearish threat. Initial resistance is seen at $78.06, yesterday’s high.

GOLD TECHS: Bear Trigger Exposed

• RES 4: $1900.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $1890.2 - High Feb 9
• RES 2: $1870.5 - High Feb 14
• RES 1: $1858.3 - High Mar 6 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $1832.7 @ 07:17 GMT Mar 10
• SUP 1: $1804.9 - Low Feb 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $1792.4 - 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: $1787.3 - 50.0% retracement of the Sep 28 - Feb 2 bull leg
• SUP 4: $1774.0 - Low Dec 15

Trend conditions in Gold remain bearish and Tuesday’s strong sell-off reinforces this theme. The move lower signals the end of the recent corrective bounce and attention is on support at $1804.9, the Feb 28 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open $1787.3, a Fibonacci retracement. The yellow metal needs to breach $1858.3, the Mar 6 high, to signal scope for a stronger reversal.

SILVER TECHS: Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: $23.606 - High Feb 3
• RES 3: $23.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $21.912 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $21.306 - High Mar 6
• PRICE: $20.104 @ 08:09 GMT Mar 10
• SUP 1: $19.904 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $19.416 - Low Nov 4
• SUP 3: $19.232 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep 1 - Feb 2 bull leg
• SUP 4: $18.835 - Low Nov 3 2022

Silver remains in a downtrend and Tuesday’s sharp sell-off confirmed a resumption of the trend - support at $20.424, the Feb 28 low, has been breached. The break lower has also resulted in a print below the psychological $20.00 handle and this paves the way for a move towards $19.232, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $21.306, the Mar 6 high.