MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold Bullish Theme Intact

Price Signal Summary – Gold Bullish Theme Intact

• S&P e-minis maintain a softer tone and the contract started the week on a bearish note. Support at 4235.50, the Oct 4 low and bear trigger, has been breached. The break of this support confirms a resumption of the downtrend and opens 4197.75, the May 24 low. A bearish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains in play and last week’s move lower reinforces current conditions. The contract has cleared support at 4082.00, the Oct 4 low and a bear trigger.
• A bullish theme in EURGBP remains intact and the cross is trading closer to its recent highs. The breach of key short-term resistance at 0.8706, the Sep 26 high and a bull trigger, confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle and has reinforced the bullish importance of the recent break. EURJPY started the week on a bullish note and traded higher yesterday. This has resulted in a print above key resistance at 159.76, the Aug 30 high and a bull trigger. The USDCAD trend outlook is unchanged and conditions remain bullish. Price continues to trade above the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The 50-day average intersects at 1.3570 and marks a key short-term support.
• Gold traded higher last week, extending the reversal from $1810.5, the Oct 6 low. The yellow metal has breached key resistance at $1953.0, the Sep 1 high, and $1987.5, the Jul 20 high. The break strengthens a bullish theme and opens $2003.4. WTI futures traded higher last week and the contract remains in bull-mode condition. The move lower from recent highs appears to be a correction. Key support is at $80.20, the Oct 6 low. The medium-term trend condition is bullish
• Bund futures remain in a downtrend and short-term gains are considered corrective. The pullback from 130.20, the Oct 12 high, highlights the end of the recent correction between Oct 4 - 12. Gilt futures traded lower Monday and the contract maintains a bearish theme. Today’s bullish start and the recovery from yesterday’s low is considered corrective. For bears, price has recently traded through key support at 91.47, the Aug 17 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: 1.0862 50.0% retracement of the Jul 18 - Oct 3 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.0809 High Sep 4
• RES 2: 1.0764 38.2% retracement of the Jul 18 - Oct 3 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.0737 High Sep 20
• PRICE: 1.0681 @ 05:28 BST Oct 24
• SUP 1: 1.0591 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0496/0448 Low Oct 13 / 03 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0406 50.0% retracement of the Sep ‘22 - Jul ‘23 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.0356 2.0% 10-dma envelope

EURUSD recovered Monday and is trading higher again today. The pair has breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The break above the 50-day average, at 1.0674, strengthens a short-term bull cycle and signals scope for a continuation higher. This has opened 1.0764, a Fibonacci retracement. Gains are considered corrective and the trend outlook remains bearish. The bear trigger lies at 1.0448, the Oct 3 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 1.2506 High Sep 14
• RES 3: 1.2444 200-dma
• RES 2: 1.2357 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.2337 High Oct 11 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2265 @ 05:55 Oct 24
• SUP 1: 1.2090 Low Oct 19
• SUP 2: 1.2037/28 Low Oct 04 and bear trigger / Low Mar 16
• SUP 3: 1.2011 Low Mar 15 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.1964 3.00 proj of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing

GBPUSD edged higher Monday. Gains are considered corrective and the trend remains bearish. The reversal from 1.2337, Oct 11 high, signals the end of a corrective phase between Oct 4 - 11. A resumption of weakness would open 1.2037, Oct 4 low. A break of this level would resume the downtrend that started in July and open 1.1964, a Fibonacci projection. For bulls, a break of 1.2337 would signal scope for a stronger corrective phase.

EURGBP TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs

• RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3
• RES 3: 0.8793 61.8% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 downleg
• RES 2: 0.8768 High May 5
• RES 1: 0.8741 High Oct 20
• PRICE: 0.8707 @ 06:03 BST Oct 24
• SUP 1: 0.8665 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8639/16 50-day EMA / Low Oct 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8569 Low Sep 15 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.8558 Low Sep 11

A bullish theme in EURGBP remains intact and the cross is trading closer to its recent highs. The breach of key short-term resistance at 0.8706, the Sep 26 high and a bull trigger, confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle and has reinforced the bullish importance of the recent break of trendline resistance, drawn from the Feb 3 high. The focus is on 0.8793, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 0.8665, the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 151.95 High Oct 21 and a major resistance
• RES 3: 151.09 2.764 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
• RES 2: 150.40 2.618 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
• RES 1: 150.16 High Oct 3 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 149.73 @ 06:34 BST Oct 24
• SUP 1: 149.21/147.43 20-day EMA / Low Oct 3 and key support
• SUP 2: 146.44 Low Sep 12
• SUP 3: 145.91 Low Sep 11
• SUP 4: 144.45 Low Sep 1

USDJPY remains in consolidation mode and continues to trade just below its recent trend highs. The trend outlook is bullish and moving average studies continue to highlight positive market sentiment. Attention is on the 150.00 handle and the recent 150.16 high (Oct 3). A clear break of 150.00 would reinforce bullish conditions and open 150.40, a Fibonacci projection. Key support to watch is 147.43, the Oct 3 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Pierces Key Resistance

• RES 4: 161.52 2.618 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 160.94 2.50 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 160.36 2.382 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 160.00 Psychological handle
• PRICE: 159.64 @ 08:06 BST Oct 24
• SUP 1: 158.03 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 156.98 Low Oct 16
• SUP 3: 155.83 Low Oct 4
• SUP 4: 154.46 Oct 3 and the bear trigger

EURJPY started the week on a bullish note and traded higher yesterday. This has resulted in a print above key resistance at 159.76, the Aug 30 high and a bull trigger. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and pave the way for a climb towards 160.36, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at 158.03, the 20-day EMA. Key support is far off at 154.46, the Oct 3 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 0.6616 High Aug 16
• RES 3: 0.6522 High Aug 30 and Sep 1, and the key resistance
• RES 2: 0.6445/6501 High Oct 11 / High Sep 29
• RES 1: 0.6393 High Oct 18
• PRICE: 0.6376 @ 08:10 BST Oct 24
• SUP 1: 0.6286 Low Oct 3 / 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 2022 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.6215 2.236 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6170 Low Oct 13 2022 and a key support

A bearish threat in AUDUSD remains present and attention is on 0.6286, the Oct 3 / 13 low. A clear break of this support and bear trigger, would confirm a resumption of the trend and open 0.6215, a Fibonacci projection. Key trend resistance is unchanged at 0.6522, the Aug 30 and Sep 1 high. A break is required to highlight a reversal. Initial resistance to watch is at 0.6393, the Oct 18 high. For now, short-term gains are considered corrective.

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 1.3926 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.3862 High Mar 10 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3805 High Mar 24
• RES 1: 1.3786 High Oct 5 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3666 @ 08:19 BST Oct 24
• SUP 1: 1.3570/69 50-day EMA / Low Oct 10
• SUP 2: 1.3477 76.4% retracement of the Sep 19 - Oct 5 rally
• SUP 3: 1.3417 Low Sep 29
• SUP 4: 1.3381 Low Sep 19 and a key support

The USDCAD trend outlook is unchanged and conditions remain bullish. Price continues to trade above the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The 50-day average intersects at 1.3570 and marks a key short-term support. A clear break of this average is required to signal scope for a deeper correction. Sights are on 1.3786, the Oct 5 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 1.3862, the Mar 10 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z3) Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 131.33 76.4% retracement of the Sep 1 - Oct 4 downleg
• RES 3: 130.43 61.8% retracement of the Sep 1 - Oct 4 downleg
• RES 2: 130.20 High Oct 12 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 129.14/129.61 High Oct 17 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 128.38 @ 05:20 BST Oct 24
• SUP 1: 127.18 Low Oct 23
• SUP 2: 126.62 Low Oct 4 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 126.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 125.49 0.764 proj of the Sep 1 - Oct 4 - Oct 12 price swing

Bund futures remain in a downtrend and short-term gains are considered corrective. The pullback from 130.20, the Oct 12 high, highlights the end of the recent correction between Oct 4 - 12. Note that the M/T trend direction is down and moving average studies continue to reflect this. An extension lower would open 126.62, the Oct 4 low and bear trigger. Key short-term resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 130.20.

BOBL TECHS: (Z3) Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 116.567 61.8% retracement of the Sep 1 - Sep 28 downleg
• RES 3: 116.500 High Oct 10 and the short-term bull trigger
• RES 2: 116.150 High Oct 16
• RES 1: 115.990 High Oct 17
• PRICE: 115.710 @ 05:31 BST Oct 24
• SUP 1: 115.130 Low Oct 19
• SUP 2: 114.880 Low Sep 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 114.710 Low Aug 15 (cont)
• SUP 4: 114.414 0.764 proj of the Sep 1 - 28 - Oct 12 price swing

Short-term gains in Bobl futures appear to be a correction. Last week’s sell-off strengthens the latest reversal and undermines the recent bullish theme. A resumption of weakness would signal scope for weakness towards key support and the bear trigger at 114.880, the Sep 28 low. Clearance of this level would further strengthen bearish conditions. Key short-term resistance and a bull trigger has been defined at 116.500, the Oct 10 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z3) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 105.440 High Sep 4
• RES 3: 105.372 76.4% Fibonacci retracement Sep 1 - 21 downleg
• RES 2: 105.190/105.320 High Oct 12 / 10 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 105.040 High Oct 17
• PRICE: 104.980 @ 05:42 BST Oct 24
• SUP 1: 104.800 Low Oct 19
• SUP 2: 104.765 Low Sep 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 104.720 2.00 proj of the Aug 24 - 30 - Sep 1 price swing
• SUP 4: 104.620 Low Jul 11 (cont)

A bear threat in Schatz futures remains present and the contract is trading below resistance at 105.320, the Oct 10 high and a short-term bull trigger. The recent move through support at 105.035, Oct 10 low, strengthened a bearish theme and has exposed key support at 104.765, the Sep 21 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the medium-term downtrend. Initial resistance is at 105.040, the Oct 17 high.

GILT TECHS: (Z3) Recovery Appears To Be A Correction

• RES 4: 96.05 High Sep 25
• RES 3: 95.66 High Oct 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 93.23/94.28 20-day EMA / High Oct 16
• RES 1: 93.00 Intraday high
• PRICE: 92.95 @ 08:13 BST Oct 24
• SUP 1: 90.85 Low Oct 23
• SUP 2: 90.38 Low Oct 12 2022 (cont) and a major support
• SUP 3: 90.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 4: 89.22 1.236 proj of the Sep 20 - Oct 4 - Oct 12 price swing

Gilt futures traded lower Monday and the contract maintains a bearish theme. Today’s bullish start and the recovery from yesterday’s low is considered corrective. For bears, price has recently traded through key support at 91.47, the Aug 17 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and paves the way for a move towards 90.38, the Oct 12 2022 low (cont) and a major support. Initial firm resistance is at 93.23, the 20-day EMA.

BTP TECHS: (Z3) Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 113.69 76.4% retracement of the Aug 24 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 3: 112.53 61.8% retracement of the Aug 24 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 2: 111.59 50.0% retracement of the Aug 24 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 1: 111.17 High Oct 12 and key resistance
• PRICE: 109.07 @ Close Oct 23
• SUP 1: 107.42 Low Oct 19
• SUP 2: 107.08 2.236 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)
• SUP 3: 106.40 2.382 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)
• SUP 4: 105.85 2.50 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)

BTP futures traded to a fresh cycle low last week as the contract extended the reversal from 111.17, the Oct 12 high. Price has pierced key support at 107.62, the Oct 4 low. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the long-term downtrend and open 107.08, a Fibonacci projection. 111.17 marks the key resistance. Clearance of this level is required to highlight a possible short-term reversal. For now, gains are considered corrective.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z3) Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 4359.00 High Sep 15 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4300.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4222.00/4256.00 50-day EMA / High Oct 12
• RES 1: 4082.00/4155.50 Low Oct 4 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 4051.00 @ 05:51 BST Oct 24
• SUP 1: 4018.00 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 4000.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 3: 3979.00 1.00 proj of the Sep 15 - Oct 4 - Oct 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 3914.00 Low Mar 20 (cont)

A bearish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains in play and last week’s move lower reinforces current conditions. The contract has cleared support at 4082.00, the Oct 4 low and a bear trigger. This break confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on the 4000.00 handle. Initial firm resistance is at 4155.50, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (Z3) Clears Key Support

• RES 4: 4514.50 High Sep 18
• RES 3: 4476.00 Trendline resistance drawn from the Jul 27 high
• RES 2: 4404.28/4430.50 50-day EMA / High Oct 12
• RES 1: 4348.88 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 4253.75 @ 06:45 BST Oct 24
• SUP 1: 4213.25 Low Oct 2
• SUP 2: 4194.75 Low May 24
• SUP 3: 4166.25 1.50 proj of the Jul 27 - Aug 18 - Sep 1 price swing
• SUP 4: 4134.00 Low May 4

S&P e-minis maintain a softer tone and the contract started the week on a bearish note. Support at 4235.50, the Oct 4 low and bear trigger, has been breached. The break of this support confirms a resumption of the downtrend and opens 4197.75, the May 24 low. Price remains below resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 4404.28. A clear breach of this average is required to strengthen bullish conditions. Initial resistance is at 4348.88, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Z3) Bull Cycle Still In Play Despite A Pullback

• RES 4: $99.73 - 1.236 proj of Jun 23 - Aug 10 - Aug 24 price swing
• RES 3: $96.22 - 1.00 proj of Jun 23 - Aug 10 - Aug 24 price swing
• RES 2: $95.35 - High Sep 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $93.79 - High Oct 20
• PRICE: $90.08 @ 06:40 BST Oct 24
• SUP 1: $88.15/83.44 - 50-day EMA / Low Oct 6 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $82.80 - 50.0% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run
• SUP 3: $81.33 - Low Aug 24
• SUP 4: $79.84 - 61.8% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run

Brent futures maintain a firmer tone following last week’s climb and despite the latest pullback - a correction. Recent gains have defined a key support at $83.44, Oct 6 low. The medium-term trend condition is bullish and the move higher exposes the bull trigger at $95.35, Sep 28 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. For bears, a break of $83.44, would highlight potential for a stronger bear cycle.

WTI TECHS: (Z3) Bullish Trend Structure Remains Intact

• RES 4: $98.27 - 1.382 proj of the Jun 28 - Aug 10 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: $96.03 - 1.236 proj of the Jun 28 - Aug 10 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: $92.48 - High Sep 28 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: $89.85 - High Oct 20
• PRICE: $85.74 @ 07:11 BST Oct 24
• SUP 1: $84.12/80.20 - 50-day EMA / Low Oct 6
• SUP 2: $77.74 - 50.0% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run
• SUP 3: $75.47 - Low Jul 24
• SUP 4: $74.26 - 61.8% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run

WTI futures traded higher last week and the contract remains in bull-mode condition. The move lower from recent highs appears to be a correction. Key support is at $80.20, the Oct 6 low. The medium-term trend condition is bullish and an extension higher would expose the bull trigger at $92.48, the Sep 28 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. For bears, a move through $80.20, would highlight a short-term top.

GOLD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: $2048.2 - High May 10
• RES 3: $2022.2 - High May 15
• RES 2: $2003.4 - 76.4% retracement of the May 4 - Oct 6 bear leg
• RES 1: $1997.2 - High Oct 20
• PRICE: $1976.8 @ 07:27 BST Oct 24
• SUP 1: $1945.3/1910.3 - Low Oct 19 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1868.8 - Low Oct 13
• SUP 3: $1844.3 - Low Oct 9
• SUP 4: $1810.5 - Low Oct 6 and a key support

Gold traded higher last week, extending the reversal from $1810.5, the Oct 6 low. The yellow metal has breached key resistance at $1953.0, the Sep 1 high, and $1987.5, the Jul 20 high. The break strengthens a bullish theme and opens $2003.4, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm pivot support lies at $1907.7, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level is required to signal a short-term top and a potential reversal.

SILVER TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: $25.267 - High Jul 20
• RES 3: $25.014 - High Aug 30
• RES 2: $24.298 - High Sep 4
• RES 1: $23.774 - High Sep 22 and a key resistance
• PRICE: $23.111 @ 07:31 BST Oct 24
• SUP 1: $22.567 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $21.573/20.689 - Low Oct 9 / 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $20.000 - Round number support
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

A corrective cycle in Silver remains in play and the metal is trading closer to its recent highs. Price has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The breach of the 50-day average, at $22.824, strengthens bullish conditions and the move higher has opened $23.774, the Sep 22 high. For bears, a reversal lower and a break of $20.689, the Oct 3 low, would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. Initial support to watch though is $22.567, the 20-day EMA.