MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold Continues to Strengthen, Exposing Resistance

Price Signal Summary – Gold Continues to Strengthen, Exposing Resistance

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis have recovered from recent lows but remain below recent highs. Attention remains on the 50-day EMA that intersects at 4563.47 today. It represents a key resistance. EUROSTOXX 50 futures have recovered from recent lows. Attention is on the 50-day EMA. The contract breached this EMA last week - currently at 4196.90. The average marks a key resistance point and a clear break would suggest scope for a stronger recovery.
• In FX, EURUSD is trading closer to its recent highs and the recent consolidation appears to be a bull flag, reinforcing bullish conditions following last week’s gains and clearance of the 20- and 50-day EMAs. USDJPY continues to trade higher this week and trend conditions remain bullish. The pair has tested initial resistance at 115.67/68, 76.4% of the Jan 4 - 24 downleg and the Jan 28 high.
• On the commodity front, Gold has continued to strengthen this week. The recovery has resulted in a break of initial resistance at $1822.2, the Jan 27 high. A continuation higher would expose the firmer resistance at $1853.9, Jan 25 high. The WTI futures uptrend remains intact and short-term dips are considered corrective. The contract recently cleared resistance at $87.10, Jan 20 high to maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows
• In the FI space, Bund futures remain in a clear downtrend and the contract traded lower again yesterday. Futures cleared the 168.00 handle last week, reinforcing bearish conditions and maintaining a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Gilt futures remain soft and the contract resumed its downleg yesterday. The recent Jan 31 break of 121.93, Jan 19 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend, reinforcing bearish conditions.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bull Flag

• RES 4: 1.1692 High Oct 28, 2021
• RES 3: 1.1608 High Nov 9, 2021
• RES 2: 1.1558 38.2% retracement of the May ‘21 - Jan 28 sell-off
• RES 1: 1.1483/84 High Jan 14 / Feb 04 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 1.1424 @ 06:04 GMT Feb 9
• SUP 1: 1.1336 Bear channel top drawn from the Jun 1, 2021 high
• SUP 2: 1.1267 Low Jan 2
• SUP 3: 1.1221/1121 Low Jan 1 / Low Jan 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.1070 Low May 29, 2020

EURUSD is trading closer to its recent highs and the recent consolidation appears to be a bull flag, reinforcing bullish conditions following last week’s gains and clearance of the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The pair has also breached the top of its bear channel drawn from the Jun 1 high of last year, highlighting a more significant reversal. The focus is on 1.1558, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial support is seen at 1.1336.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 1.3835 High Oct 20 and key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3708/49 200-dma / High Jan 13
• RES 2: 1.3662 High Jan 20
• RES 1: 1.3628 High Feb 02
• PRICE: 1.3558 @ 06:09 GMT Feb 9
• SUP 1: 1.3491/3435 Low Feb 7 / Low Feb 1
• SUP 2: 1.3358/43 Low Jan 27 / Low Dec 23
• SUP 3: 1.3301 76.4% retracement of the Dec 8 - Jan 13 bull phase
• SUP 4: 1.3226 2.0% 10-dma envelope

The GBPUSD outlook is unchanged and remains bullish. The pair remains below last week’s high of 1.3628 on Feb 3 and the near-term bull trigger. A bullish theme follows the recent recovery from 1.3358, Jan 27 low and scope is seen for a climb towards 1.3662 next, Jan 20 high. On the downside, initial support lies at 1.3491, Monday’s low. Key support is unchanged at 1.3358, Jan 27 low. This is the trigger for a resumption of bearish pressure.

EURGBP TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 0.8526 76.4% retracement of the Dec 8 - Feb 3 downleg
• RES 3: 0.8512 High Dec 22
• RES 2: 0.8480 61.8% retracement of the Dec 8 - Feb 3 downleg
• RES 1: 0.8478 High Feb 7
• PRICE: 0.8428 @ 06:15 GMT Feb 9
• SUP 1: 0.8406/8384 Low Feb 4 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8285 Low Feb 3
• SUP 3: 0.8282/77 Low Feb’20 / Dec’19 and key bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8242 50% Fibonacci Retracement 2015-2020 Upleg

The EURGBP outlook remains positive and this week’s pullback is considered corrective. Bullish conditions follow last week’s rebound from a major area of support. 0.8300 is the base of a multi-year range, in place since 2016 and 0.8282/77 marks the Feb’20 and Dec’19 lows. The reversal from these key chart points, suggest bullish activity will likely dominate near-term. Sights are on 0.8480 next, a Fibonacci retracement.

USDJPY TECHS: Testing First Resistance

• RES 4: 118.07 2.236 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 2021 price swing
• RES 3: 117.08 2.00 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 2021 price swing
• RES 2: 116.35 High Jan 4 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 115.67/68 76.4% of the Jan 4 - 24 downleg / High Jan 28
• PRICE: 11546 @ 06:21 GMT Feb 9
• SUP 1: 114.85 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 114.16/113.47 Low Feb 02 / Low Jan 24 and key support
• SUP 3: 113.43 76.4% of the Nov 30 - Jan 4 rally
• SUP 4: 113.14 Low Dec 17

USDJPY continues to trade higher this week and trend conditions remain bullish. The pair has tested initial resistance at 115.67/68, 76.4% of the Jan 4 - 24 downleg and the Jan 28 high. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen bullish conditions and signal scope for a climb towards 116.35, this year’s high on Jan 4 and the key bull trigger. On the downside, initial support is seen at 114.85, the 20-day EMA ahead of the firmer 114.16 level, Feb 2 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: 133.48 High Oct 20 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 132.92 High Oct 21, 2021
• RES 2: 132.46 1.00 proj of the Dec 3 - Jan 5 - 25 price swing
• RES 1: 132.24 High Feb 7
• PRICE: 131.90 @ 06:25 GMT Feb 9
• SUP 1: 130.38, 50.0% of the Feb 3 large range
• SUP 2: 129.19 Low Feb 3
• SUP 3: 128.25 Low Jan 25 and a key short-term support
• SUP 4: 127.39 Low Dec 6 and a major support

EURJPY is consolidating but remains in a bull mode following the strong impulsive rally on Feb 3. The cross has cleared resistance at 131.60, Jan 5 high and a bull trigger. This break confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started on December 3. The focus is on 132.46 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support is seen at 130.38, 50.0% of the Feb 3 range.

AUDUSD TECHS: 50-Day EMA Marks A Pivot Point

• RES 4: 0.7314 High Jan 13 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.7277 High Jan 20
• RES 2: 0.7179 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.7168 High Feb 3
• PRICE: 0.7157 @ 06:31 GMT Feb 9
• SUP 1: 0.7052 Low Feb 4
• SUP 2: 0.6968/6963 Low Jan 28 / Low Jul 16, 2020
• SUP 3: 0.6921 Low Jul 14, 2020
• SUP 4: 0.6884 0.764 proj of the Oct ‘21 - Dec ‘21 - Jan price swing

AUDUSD has recovered from its recent low. Key S/T resistance is seen at 0.7179, the 50-day EMA. The trend is bearish and recent short-term gains are considered corrective. The recent breach of key support at 0.6993/91, Dec 3 2021 and Nov 2 2020 lows reinforced a bearish theme and confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. This has opened 0.6963/21, the Jul 16 and Jul 14 2020 lows. For bulls, a break of the 50-day EMA would alter the picture.

USDCAD TECHS: Remains Above Support

• RES 4: 1.2964 High Dec 20 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2924 High Dec 22
• RES 2: 1.2843 76.4% retracement of the Dec 20 - Jan 19 sell-off
• RES 1: 1.2797/2814 High Jan 28 / High Jan 6 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 1.2703 @ 06:34 GMT Feb 9
• SUP 1: 1.2650 Low Jan 27/Feb 2
• SUP 2: 1.2560 Low Jan 26
• SUP 3: 1.2451/48 Low Jan 19 / 76.4% of the Oct - Dec rally
• SUP 4: 1.2387 Low Nov 10

The USDCAD outlook remains bullish and the pair has remained above initial support. A positive theme follows the recovery from 1.2451, Jan 19 low that resulted in a move above the 50-day EMA and a move through 1.2768, 61.8% of the Dec 20 - Jan 19 sell-off. This reinforces a bullish theme and has opened 1.2843, the 76.4% retracement value. Initial firm support lies at 1.2560, Jan 26 low. First support is at 1.2650, Jan 27 and Feb 2 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H2) Heading South

• RES 4: 171.07 High Jan 24 and key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 170.37 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 168.71/81 20-day EMA / High Feb 3
• RES 1: 167.00 High Feb 4
• PRICE: 165.44 @ 05:02 GMT Feb 9
• SUP 1: 165.03 Low Feb 8
• SUP 2: 164.82 Low May 3, 2019 (cont)
• SUP 3: 164.33 Low Apr 18, 2019 (cont)
• SUP 4: 164.00 round number support

Bund futures remain in a clear downtrend and the contract traded lower again yesterday. Futures cleared the 168.00 handle last week, reinforcing bearish conditions and maintaining a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Bears haven’t looked back. MA conditions are in a bear mode too highlighting current sentiment. Scope is seen for a move towards 164.82 next, May 3 2019 low on the continuation chart. 167.00 is the first resistance.

BOBL TECHS: (H2) Bears Pause For Breath

• RES 4: 132.841 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 132.060 High Feb 3
• RES 2: 132.044 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 131.150 High Jan 4
• PRICE: 130.510 @ 05:15 GMT Feb 9
• SUP 1: 130.240 Low Feb 7
• SUP 2: 130.000 Psychological round number
• SUP 3: 129.460 High Dec 7, 2015 (cont) (cont)
• SUP 4: 129.020 Low Dec 7, 2015 (sont)

Bobl futures bears have paused for breath. The outlook remains bearish following last week's sell-off. The recent breach of support at 132.400, Jan 19 low, confirmed a resumption of the underlying downtrend and resumed the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving averages also point south. Attention is on the psychological 130.00 handle next, the Oct 5, 2018 low (cont). The Jan 4 high of 131.150 is the first resistance.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H2) Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 111.977 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 111.870 High Feb 3
• RES 2: 111.824 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 111.615 High Jan 4
• PRICE: 111.515 @ 05:20 GMT Feb 9
• SUP 1: 111.250/208 Low Feb 7 / 2.50 proj of Dec 20-Jan 19-24 swing
• SUP 2: 111.185 Low Jun 26, 2015 (cont)
• SUP 3: 111.140 Low Jun 11, 2015 (cont)
• SUP 4: 111.090 Low Jun 10, 2015 (cont)

Schatz futures remain bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. The Jan 31 sell-off resulted in a break of 111.890, Jan 19 low and a bear trigger. This confirmed a resumption and an acceleration of the downtrend. Moving average conditions remain bearish too. The focus is on 111.208 next, a Fibonacci projection. The Jan 4 high of 111.615 marks initial resistance.

GILT TECHS: (H2) Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 123.58 High Jan 24, 50-day EMA and a key resistance
• RES 3: 123.23 High Jan 26
• RES 2: 122.33/56 20-day EMA / High Feb 2
• RES 1: 121.59 High Feb 4
• PRICE: 120.28 @ Close Feb 8
• SUP 1: 120.13 Low Feb 8
• SUP 2: 120.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 3: 119.55 2.236 proj of the Jan 13 - 19 - 24 price swing
• SUP 4: 119.36 Low Oct 10, 2018 (cont)

Gilt futures remain soft and the contract resumed its downleg yesterday. The recent Jan 31 break of 121.93, Jan 19 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend, reinforcing bearish conditions and maintaining a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. MA conditions remain in a bear mode, highlighting current sentiment. The focus is on the 120.00 psychological handle. Firm S/T resistance is seen at 122.56, Feb 2 high.

BTP TECHS: (H2) Trend Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 146.16 High Feb 1
• RES 3: 145.11 High Feb 3
• RES 2: 144.55 Low Jan 27 and recent breakout level
• RES 1: 142.55 High Feb 4
• PRICE: 139.87 @ Close Feb 8
• SUP 1: 139.32 Low Feb 7
• SUP 2: 138.09 1.50 proj of the Dec 14 - Jan 19 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 137.52 Low May 18, 2020 (cont)
• SUP 4: 136.86 Low May 13, 2020 (cont)

A sharp sell-off in BTP futures late last week and Monday, have reinforced bearish conditions. The impulsive sell-off and break of support at 144.55, Jan 27 low, marked a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 138.09 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is seen at the Jan 4 high of 142.55. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.

EQUITIES

E-MINI S&P (H2): Has Recovered From Recent Lows

• RES 4: 4808.25 All-time high on Jan 4
• RES 3: 4739.50 High Jan 12
• RES 2: 4671.75 High Jan 18
• RES 1: 4563.47/4586.00 50-day EMA / High Feb 2
• PRICE: 4533.75 @ 06:39 GMT Feb 9
• SUP 1: 4395.50 Low Jan 31
• SUP 2: 4212.75 Low Jan 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4186.57 23.6% of the Mar ‘20 - Jan ‘22 major rally
• SUP 4: 4126.75 Low Jun 21, 2021 (cont)

S&P E-minis have recovered from recent lows but remain below recent highs. Attention remains on the 50-day EMA that intersects at 4563.47 today. It represents a key resistance. For bulls, a clear break of the EMA is required to suggest scope for a stronger rally that would open 4671.75 initially, Jan 18 high. A stronger bearish reversal would instead refocus attention on the 4212.75 low from Jan 24. This remains the key short-term bear trigger.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H2) All Eyes On The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4392.50 High Nov 18 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4381.50 High Jan 5 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 4324.50 High Jan 13
• RES 1: 4196.90/4250.00 50-day EMA / High Feb 2
• PRICE: 4155.50 @ 05:41 GMT Feb 9
• SUP 1: 4056.00/3990.50 Low Feb 4 / Low Jan 24 and key support
• SUP 2: 3980.00 Low Nov 30 2021
• SUP 3: 3935.00 Low Oct 6 2021
• SUP 4: 3895.00 Low Jul 19 2021 (cont)

EUROSTOXX 50 futures have recovered from recent lows. Attention is on the 50-day EMA. The contract breached this EMA last week - currently at 4196.90. The average marks a key resistance point and a clear break would suggest scope for a stronger recovery that would open 4324.50, Jan 13 high. A shift lower again though would refocus attention on 3990.50, Jan 24 low and the trigger for a resumption of recent bearish pressure.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (J2) Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: $96.09 - 2.50 proj of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 3: $95.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $94.82 - 2.382 proj of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 1: $94.00 - High Feb 7
• PRICE: $90.76 @ 06:36 GMT Feb 9
• SUP 1: $89.93/87.72 - Low Feb 8 / Low Feb 1
• SUP 2: $84.22 - Low Jan 24 and key support
• SUP 3: $83.39 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $79.95 - Low Jan 10

Brent futures have pulled back from recent highs. The move lower is considered corrective and the outlook is bullish. The contract recently resumed its uptrend, breaking $88.69, the Jan 20 high. This means that a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows remains intact. MA conditions are in a bull mode too. The $90.00 handle has been cleared and the focus is on $94.82, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is at $87.72.

WTI TECHS: (H2) Pulls Back From Recent Highs

• RES 4: $95.70 - 2.764 proj of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 3: $95.00 - Round number support
• RES 2: $94.13 - 2.618 proj of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 1: $93.17 - High Jan 4
• PRICE: $89.21 @ 07:08 GMT Feb 9
• SUP 1: $88.51/86.34 - Low Feb 8 / Low Jan 31
• SUP 2: $86.17/81.90 - 20-day EMA / Low Jan 24
• SUP 3: $81.17/77.34 - 50-day EMA / Low Jan 10
• SUP 4: $74.01 - Low Jan 3

The WTI futures uptrend remains intact and short-term dips are considered corrective. The contract recently cleared resistance at $87.10, Jan 20 high to maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average conditions remain in a bull mode too. Futures have cleared the psychological $90.00 handle and this opens $94.13 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support is seen at $86.34, the Jan 31 low.

GOLD TECHS: Rebound Extends

• RES 4: $1877.2 - High Nov 16 and key resistance
• RES 3: $1871.0 - High Nov 18
• RES 2: $1853.9 - High Jan 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $1836.5 - 76.4% retracement of the Jan 25 - 28 downleg
• PRICE: $1827.5 @ 06:57 GMT Feb 9
• SUP 1: $1805.6/1780.4 - Low Feb 7 / Low Jan 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $1775.7 - Low Dec 16
• SUP 3: $1753.7 - Low Dec 15 and a key support
• SUP 4: $1746.0 - Low Oct 6

Gold has continued to strengthen this week. The recovery has resulted in a break of initial resistance at $1822.2, the Jan 27 high. A continuation higher would expose the firmer resistance at $1853.9, Jan 25 high. Recent attention has been on the break of a bull channel base drawn off the Aug 9 low. This highlighted a bearish threat plus a more significant reversal. A return lower would refocus attention on $1780.4, Jan 28 low and $1775.7, the Dec 16 low.

SILVER TECHS: Corrective Recovery

• RES 4: $24.886 - High Nov 22
• RES 3: $24.700 - High Jan 20 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $23.994 - High Jan 25
• RES 1: $23.599 - High Jan 27
• PRICE: $23.203 @ 07:24 GMT Feb 9
• SUP 1: $22.008 - Low Feb 3
• SUP 2: $21.949 - Low Jan 7
• SUP 3: $21.427/423 - Low Dec 15 / Low Sep 29 and key support
• SUP 4: $20.871 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Feb ‘21 rally

Silver still appears vulnerable despite the recent bounce. The metal recently reversed a bullish theme following a sharp sell-off from the Jan 20 high and breached $22.809, Jan 17 low. This signals scope for a deeper retracement and has opened $21.949, the Jan 7 low. A break would reinforce the bearish threat and expose $21.427/423, the Dec 15 and Sep 29 lows and a key support zone. Initial resistance is seen at $23.077, the 50-day EMA.