MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold Extends Bear Cycle

Price Signal Summary – Gold Extends Bear Cycle

• The E-mini S&P contract continues to trade below 4634.50, the Jul 27 high. This week’s move lower reinforces a bearish theme and has resulted in a break of support around the 20-day EMA. Eurostoxx 50 futures gains stalled at 4513.00 on Monday, and the contract has traded sharply lower this week. Price has cleared both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, highlighting a stronger bearish threat. Yesterday’s move lower resulted in a break of key support at 4331.00
• GBPUSD maintains a weaker tone and this week’s price action has reinforced bearish conditions. The pair has cleared a key support highlighted by the 50-day EMA, at 1.2744, and 1.2756, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Mar 8 low. USDJPY bulls remain in the driver’s seat despite the corrective pullback on Thursday. The pair has continued to appreciate this week and sights are on 144.20, the Jul 7 high. Clearance of this level would open key resistance and the bull trigger at 145.07, the Jun 30 high.AUDUSD bears remain in the driver’s seat and the pair is trading closer to this week’s lows. Price has recently breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, reinforcing current conditions.
• Gold traded lower this week and the yellow metal remains at its recent lows. This confirms an extension of the bear cycle that started Jul 20 and highlights potential for a continuation lower near-term. The focus is on $1924.5, the Jul 11 low. The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact and Wednesday’s move lower is likely a correction. The trend condition is overbought and a short-term pullback would allow this to unwind. The next key short-term support lies at the 20-day EMA, which intersects at $77.72.
• Bund futures remain vulnerable and this week’s move lower reinforces a bearish theme. Price has recently breached 132.23, 61.8% of the Jul 10 - 19 rally. This undermined the recent bullish theme and signalled scope for an extension lower. Bearish conditions in Gilt futures remain intact and this week’s extension reinforces current conditions. The contract has recently breached support at 96.11, the Jul 21 low., and cleared the 20-day EMA, reinforcing a bearish threat.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS:Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 1.1313 High Feb 24 2022
• RES 3: 1.1276 High Jul 18 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.1150/1229 High Jul 27 / 20
• RES 1: 1.1022 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0951@ 05:50 BST Aug 4
• SUP 1: 1.0912 Low Aug 03
• SUP 2: 1.0867 Low Jul 7
• SUP 3: 1.0834 Low Jul 6 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0804 Low Jun 15

EURUSD remains in a downtrend. This week’s move lower has resulted in a break of trendline support drawn off the May 31 low as well as the 50-day EMA. The move strengthens the current bearish theme and opens the 1.0867 Jul 7 low initially ahead of key support 1.0834, the Jul 6 low. Momentum studies continue to point south highlighting the current trend direction. The 20-day EMA, at 1.1022 marks initial resistance.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 1.3142 High Jul 14 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.3045 High Jul 19
• RES 2: 1.2887/2996 High Jul 28 / 27 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.2828 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.2726 @ 06:09 BST Aug 04
• SUP 1: 1.2621 Low Aug 3
• SUP 2: 1.2591 Low Jun 29
• SUP 3: 1.2480 1.50 projection of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.2439 1.618 projection of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing

GBPUSD maintains a weaker tone and this week’s price action has reinforced bearish conditions. The pair has cleared a key support highlighted by the 50-day EMA, at 1.2744, and 1.2756, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Mar 8 low. This strengthens a bearish theme and signals scope for weakness towards 1.2591, the Jun 29 low. First resistance is at 1.2828, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 0.8749 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 19 downleg
• RES 3: 0.8719 High May 23 and a congestion high
• RES 2: 0.8680/8701 100-dma / High Jul 19
• RES 1: 0.8656 High Aug 3
• PRICE: 0.8604 @ 06:26 BST Aug 4
• SUP 1: 0.8544 Low Jul 27
• SUP 2: 0.8510 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 0.8504 Low Jul 11 and key support
• SUP 4: 0.8471 Low Aug 29 2022

Recent short-term gains in EURGBP appear to be a correction. The sell-off between Jul 19 - 27 highlights a bearish threat that resulted in a breach of both the 20-day and 50-day EMAs. A resumption of bearish price activity would expose 0.8504, the Jul 11 low and a key support. Initial firm resistance is at 0.8656, Thursday’s high. Clearance of this level would expose resistance at 0.8701, the Jul 19 high and a bull trigger.

USDJPY TECHS: Short-Term Pullback Deemed Corrective

• RES 4: 146.38 1.764 projection of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 145.69 1.618 projection of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 145.07 High Jun 30 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 144.20 High Jul 7
• PRICE: 142.39 @ 06:34 BST Aug 4
• SUP 1: 141.45/140.58 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 138.07 Low Jul 28
• SUP 3: 137.25 Low Jul 14 and key support
• SUP 4: 136.31 Low May 17

USDJPY bulls remain in the driver’s seat despite the corrective pullback on Thursday. The pair has continued to appreciate this week and sights are on 144.20, the Jul 7 high. Clearance of this level would open key resistance and the bull trigger at 145.07, the Jun 30 high. Moving average studies are in a bull mode condition highlighting current positive market sentiment. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at 141.45, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 159.92 2.236 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 158.72 2.00 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 158.05 High Jul 21 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 157.50 High Aug 2
• PRICE: 156.06 @ 06:56 BST Aug 4
• SUP 1: 155.54 Low Aug 3
• SUP 2: 154.25 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 151.42 Low Jul 28 and key support
• SUP 4: 150.16 38.2% retracement of the Jan 3 - Jul 21 bull cycle

Short-term conditions in EURJPY remain bullish. The latest rally highlights the end of a corrective cycle between Jul 21 - 28. A continuation higher would expose 158.05, the Jul 21 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the medium-term uptrend that would open 158.72, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is at 151.42, the Jul 28 low. Initial firm support is at 154.25, the 50-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trading Closer To This Week’s Lows

• RES 4: 0.6900 High Jun 16 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.6847 High Jul 20
• RES 2: 0.6821 High Jul 27
• RES 1: 0.6630/6703 High Aug 2 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6564 @ 07:56 BST Aug 4
• SUP 1: 0.6514 Low Aug 3
• SUP 2: 0.6485 Low Jun 1
• SUP 3: 0.6458 Low May 31 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6403 76.4% retracement of the Oct 13 ‘22 - Feb 2 bull leg

AUDUSD bears remain in the driver’s seat and the pair is trading closer to this week’s lows. Price has recently breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, reinforcing current conditions. Wednesday’s move lower resulted in a break of support at 0.6596, the Jun 29 low, as well as 0.6562, 76.4% of the Oct 13 ‘22 - Feb 2 bull leg. This opens 0.6458, the May 31 low and bear trigger. Initial firm resistance is seen at 0.6703, the 50-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Approaching Key Resistance

• RES 4: 1.3462 High Jun 5
• RES 3: 1.3441 61.8% retracement of the May 26 - Jul 14 downleg
• RES 2: 1.3427 High Jun 7
• RES 1: 1.3387 High Jul 7 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 1.3365 @ 08:01 BST Aug 4
• SUP 1: 1.3244 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.3151/3093 Low Jul 31 / 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3084 1.618 proj of the Apr 28 - May 8 - May 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.3032 1.764 proj of the Apr 28 - May 8 - May 26 price swing

USDCAD short-term conditions have improved for bulls following this week’s strong recovery. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 1.3287, has been cleared. The move higher signals scope for a test of the next key resistance at 1.3387, the Jul 7 high. A break of this level would strengthen bullish conditions. Key support has been defined at 1.3093, the Jul 14 low. Initial support to watch lies at 1.3244, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U3) Bear Leg Extends

• RES 4: 135.00 High Jun 27 and key resistance
• RES 3: 134.88 High Jul 19
• RES 2: 133.21/134.01 50-day EMA / High Jul 24
• RES 1: 132.85 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 131.51 @ 07:49 BST Aug 4
• SUP 1: 131.45 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 130.99 Low Jul 12
• SUP 3: 130.60 Low Jul 10 and a key support
• SUP 4: 130.00 Psychological round number

Bund futures remain vulnerable and this week’s move lower reinforces a bearish theme. Price has recently breached 132.23, 61.8% of the Jul 10 - 19 rally. This undermined the recent bullish theme and signalled scope for an extension lower. Today’s sell-off has resulted in a break of 131.61, the 76.4% retracement. This opens key support at 130.60, the Jul 10 low. First resistance is at 132.85, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (U3) Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 116.990 High Jun 12 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 116.860 High Jun 13
• RES 2: 116.600 High Jul 19 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 116.200 High Jul 24 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 115.570 @ 05:25 BST Aug 4
• SUP 1: 115.333/320 61.8% of the Jul 6 - 19 rally / Low Jul 28
• SUP 2: 115.230 Low Jul 13
• SUP 3: 115.034 76.4% retracement of the Jul 6 - 19 rally
• SUP 4: 114.730 Low Jul 12

Bobl futures are unchanged. The contract on Jul 28, traded through support at 115.540, the Jul 21 / 26 low, before recovering. The break undermines the recent bullish theme and highlights a bearish threat. This has exposed 115.333, a Fibonacci retracement point and the next important support. It has been pierced and a clear break would strengthen a bearish threat. On the upside, key near-term resistance is unchanged at 116.200, the Jul 24 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U3) Approaching Resistance

• RES 4: 105.382 100-dma (cont)
• RES 3: 105.223 50% retracement June-July downleg
• RES 2: 105.185 High Jul 19 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 105.160 High Aug 3
• PRICE: 105.070 @ 05:43 BST Aug 4
• SUP 1: 104.983/805 20-day EMA / Low Jul 17
• SUP 2: 104.620/104.570 Low Jul 11 / 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 104.470 2.00 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 104.335 Low Mar 9 (cont) and a major support

A short-term uptrend in Schatz futures remains intact, for now, with immediate support at 104.805, the Jul 17 low, still intact. A stronger resumption of gains and a breach of 105.185, the Jul 19 high, would highlight a continuation of the bull cycle and open 105.223 and 105.376, Fibonacci retracement points. On the downside, a break of 104.805 would instead expose key support and the bear trigger at 104.570, the Jul 6 low.

GILT TECHS: (U3) Heading South

• RES 4: 97.91 38.2% retracement of the Mar - Jul downleg (cont)
• RES 3: 97.84 High Jul 19 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 96.19/81 High Jul 31 / 27
• RES 1: 95.46 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 94.13 @ Close Aug 3
• SUP 1: 93.99 Low Aug 3
• SUP 2: 93.45 76.4% retracement of the Jul 7 - 19 rally
• SUP 3: 92.82 Low Jul 12
• SUP 4: 92.09 Low Jul 7 and a key support

Bearish conditions in Gilt futures remain intact and this week’s extension reinforces current conditions. The contract has recently breached support at 96.11, the Jul 21 low., and cleared the 20-day EMA, reinforcing a bearish threat. Yesterday’s move lower resulted in a break of 94.58, the Jul 17 low and this opens 93.45 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is at 95.46, the 20-day EMA.

BTP TECHS: (U3) Bear Leg Extends

• RES 4: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 3: 117.60 High Jun 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 116.86/117.48 High Jul 24 / 19
• RES 1: 116.14 High Aug 2
• PRICE: 114.63 @ Close Aug 3
• SUP 1: 114.02 76.4% retracement of the Jul 11 - 19 rally
• SUP 2: 112.95 Low Jul 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 112.48 Low May 29
• SUP 4: 111.78 Low May 26 and a key support

BTP futures traded sharply lower yesterday, extending the downleg that started Jul 19. The move lower this week undermines a recent bullish theme and instead highlights a stronger bearish threat. The focus is on 114.02, a Fibonacci retracement point. A break of this level would expose 112.95, the Jul 11 low and a key support. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 116.14, the Aug 1 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U3) Southbound

• RES 4: 4546.00 1.00 proj of the Jul 7 - 13 - 26 price swing
• RES 3: 4539.20 1.382 proj of the May 31 - Jul 3 - 7 price swing (cont)
• RES 2: 4515.00 High Nov / Dec 2007 (cont)
• RES 1: 4424.00/4513.00 High Aug 2 / High Jul 31 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4334.00 @ 06:35 BST Aug 4
• SUP 1: 4282.00 Low Jul 11
• SUP 2: 4220.00 Low Jul 7 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 3: 4177.40 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 31 bull leg
• SUP 4: 4122.00 Low Mar 28

Eurostoxx 50 futures gains stalled at 4513.00 on Monday, and the contract has traded sharply lower this week. Price has cleared both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, highlighting a stronger bearish threat. Yesterday’s move lower resulted in a break of key support at 4331.00, the Jul 26 low. This strengthens a bearish theme and opens 4220.00, the Jul 7 low and a reversal trigger. Initial resistance is at 4424.00, Wednesday’s high.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U3) Bear Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 4715.86 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 4670.25 2.00 proj of the Jun 26 - 20 - Jul 7 price swing
• RES 2: 4665.19 Bull channel top
• RES 1: 4593.50/4634.50 High Aug 2 / Jul 27
• PRICE: 4544.25 @ 06:52 BST Aug 4
• SUP 1: 4505.75 Low Aug 3
• SUP 2: 4470.00 Low Jul 12
• SUP 3: 4452.13 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 4418.60 Bull channel base drawn from the Mar 13 low

The E-mini S&P contract continues to trade below 4634.50, the Jul 27 high. This week’s move lower reinforces a bearish theme and has resulted in a break of support around the 20-day EMA. The recent failure at the top of the bull channel and the break of the 20-day average, highlights a developing bearish threat. A continuation lower would open 4452.13, the 50-day EMA. First key resistance is at 4634.50, the Jul 27 high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V3) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: $92.10 - 1.50 proj of the Jun 28 - Jul 13 - Jul 18 price swing
• RES 3: $90.63 - High Nov 11 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $86.18 - High Jan 23 and a key resistance
• PRICE: $85.29 @ 06:57 BST Aug 4
• SUP 1: $81.63/78.10 - 20-day EMA / Low Jul 18 and key support
• SUP 2: $74.78 - Low Jul 6
• SUP 3: $72.04 - Low Jun 28
• SUP 4: $71.21 - Low My 31

Brent futures faced resistance Wednesday and this resulted in a sharp pullback from the day high of $85.99. Yesterday’s rally has retraced most of the sell-off. A move lower is, for now, considered corrective. A deeper pullback would allow an overbought trend condition to unwind. The next key support lies at $81.63, the 20-day EMA. A resumption of gains and a break of $85.99, would resume the uptrend and open $86.18, the Jan 23 high.

WTI TECHS: (U3) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: $87.43 - 1.382 proj of the Jun 28 - Jul 13 - Jul 17 price swing
• RES 3: $85.94 - High Aug 23 2022
• RES 2: $85.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $83.59 - High Nov 7 2022
• PRICE: $81.76 @ 07:01 BST Aug 4
• SUP 1: $77.72/73.78 - 20-day EMA / Low Jul 17
• SUP 2: $69.82/66.98 - Low Jul 3 / Low Jun 12 and key support
• SUP 3: $64.22 - Low May 4 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)

The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact and Wednesday’s move lower is likely a correction. The trend condition is overbought and a short-term pullback would allow this to unwind. The next key short-term support lies at the 20-day EMA, which intersects at $77.72. For bulls, a break above $82.43, Wednesday’s high, would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open $83.59, the Nov 7 2022 high.

GOLD TECHS: Bearish Theme

• RES 4: $2022.9 - 76.4% retracement of the May 4 - Jun 29 bear leg
• RES 3: $2004.2 - 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: $1998.1 - 61.8% retracement of the May 4 - Jun 29 bear leg
• RES 1: $1972.4/1987.5 - High Jul 31 / High Jul 20 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1934.0@ 07:15 BST Aug 4
• SUP 1: $1924.5 - Low Jul 11
• SUP 2: $1902.8 - Low Jul 6
• SUP 3: $1893.1 - Jun 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $1885.8 - Low Mar 15

Gold traded lower this week and the yellow metal remains at its recent lows. This confirms an extension of the bear cycle that started Jul 20 and highlights potential for a continuation lower near-term. The focus is on $1924.5, the Jul 11 low. Clearance of this level would signal scope for an extension towards the key support at $1893.1, the Jun 29 low. Key resistance is at $1987.5, the Jul 20 high. A break would reinstate a bullish theme.

SILVER TECHS: Bear Cycle Extends

• RES 4: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022
• RES 3: $26.135 - High May 5 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $25.920 - High May 10
• RES 1: $24.154/25.267 - 20-day EMA / High Jul 20
• PRICE: $24.477 @ 07:24 BST Aug 4
• SUP 1: $23.109 - Low Jul 12
• SUP 2: $22.527 - Low Jul 6
• SUP 3: $22.111 - Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: $21.375 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 bull leg

A bull cycle in Silver remains in play and recent weakness is considered corrective. However, support at $23.9416, the 50-day EMA, has been cleared and this does undermine a bullish outlook. A continuation lower would pave the way for a move towards $23.109, the Jul 2 low. Key resistance is at $25.267, the Jul 20 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Initial resistance is at $24.154, the 20-day EMA.