MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold Fade Deemed Corrective
Price Signal Summary – Gold Fade Deemed Corrective
- The S&P E-Minis contract remains bullish and the latest shallow pullback is considered corrective. Recent gains confirm a resumption of the uptrend and signal scope for a continuation near-term. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. A bull cycle in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact and price continues to trade closer to its recent highs. The contract has recently breached the 50-day EMA. The clear break of this average strengthens a bullish theme.
- EURUSD maintains a softer tone and gains are considered corrective. Resistance at 1.0552, the 20-day EMA, is intact. A close above this average would signal scope for a stronger corrective recovery towards 1.0673, the 50-day EMA. EURGBP has reversed higher from last week’s 0.8225 low (Dec 11). Gains are considered corrective and attention is on 0.8330, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would undermine the bear theme and signal scope for a stronger recovery. The trend direction in AUDUSD remains down and last week’s extension reinforces the current bearish theme. The move lower maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.
- Gold has pulled back from its recent highs. Trend signals remain bullish and a move lower is considered corrective. A key short-term resistance at $2721.4, the Nov 25 high, has been pierced and this represents a positive development. A bearish threat in WTI futures remains present and last week’s gains are - for now - considered corrective. A resumption of the bear cycle would open $65.74, the Oct 1 low, and $63.90, the Sep 10 low and key support.
- The current bearish cycle in Bund futures remains in play and Friday’s extension signals scope for a continuation of the bear leg. Price is trading at its recent lows and sights are on 133.98, a Fibonacci retracement point. Gilt futures traded sharply lower last week, resulting in a move through support at 95.49, the Dec 4 low, and 95.17, the Nov 28 low. A continuation down would expose key support at 93.40, the Nov 18 low.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Outlook Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 1.0937 High Nov 5 / 6 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 1.0825 High Nov 7
- RES 2: 1.0673 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.0552/0630 20-day EMA / High Dec 06
- PRICE: 1.0518 @ 06:07 GMT Dec 16
- SUP 1: 1.0425/0335 Low Nov 26 / 22 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.0311 1.382 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.0258 1.500 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.0201 61.8% retracement of the Sep 28 - Juk 18 bull leg
EURUSD maintains a softer tone and gains are considered corrective. Resistance at 1.0552, the 20-day EMA, is intact. A close above this average would signal scope for a stronger corrective recovery towards 1.0673, the 50-day EMA. An extension higher would allow for a continued unwinding of the recent oversold condition. Support at 1.0461, the Dec 2 low, has been pierced. A clear break would expose 1.0335, the Nov 22 low and bear trigger.
GBPUSD TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 1.3048 High Nov 6 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 1.2961 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.2811 High Dec 6 and a short-term bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.2716 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.2636 @ 06:30 GMT Dec 16
- SUP 1: 1.2609/2487 Low Dec 13 / Low Nov 22 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.2446 Low May 9
- SUP 3. 1.2367 76.4% retracement of the Oct 4 ‘23 - Sep 26 uptrend
- SUP 4: 1.2300 Low Apr 22 and a key support
GBPUSD traded lower again Friday, extending the pullback from its recent high. The trend condition remains bearish and recent gains appear to have been a correction. The recovery allowed an oversold condition to unwind. Key resistance to monitor is 1.2813, the 50-day EMA. Support has been cleared at 1.2617, Dec 2 low. This exposes the bear trigger at 1.2487, the Nov 22 low.
EURGBP TECHS: Monitoring Resistance At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 0.8448 High Oct 31 and reversal trigger
- RES 3: 0.8376 High Nov 19 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 0.8356 High Nov 27
- RES 1: 0.8330 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.8322 @ 06:43 GMT Dec 16
- SUP 1: 0.8225 Low Dec 11
- SUP 2: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
- SUP 3: 0.8200 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.8188 1.00 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 11 - 19 price swing
EURGBP has reversed higher from last week’s 0.8225 low (Dec 11). Gains are considered corrective and attention is on 0.8330, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would undermine the bear theme and signal scope for a stronger recovery. For bears, a reversal lower would refocus attention on 0.8225. Clearance of this level would expose the major support at 0.8203, the Mar 7 ‘22 low and the lowest point of a multi-year range.
USDJPY TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 156.75 High Nov 15 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 155.89 High Nov 20
- RES 2: 154.84 76.4% retracement of the Nov 15 - Dec 3 pullback
- RES 1: 153.97 Intraday high
- PRICE: 153.67 @ 06:57 GMT Dec 16
- SUP 1: 152.04 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 151.43 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 149.37 Low Dec 06
- SUP 4: 148.65 Low Dec 03 and the bear trigger
USDJPY traded higher last week and is holding on to its latest gains. The pair has breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This undermines the recent bearish theme and for now, signals scope for an extension higher. Sights are on 154.84, a Fibonacci retracement. A reversal lower would signal the end of the latest bull cycle and refocus attention on the bear trigger at 148.65, the Dec 3 low.
EURJPY TECHS: Has Pierced The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 165.04 High Nov 15 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 3: 164.21 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Dec 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 162.68 61.8% retracement of the Oct 31 - Dec 3 bear leg
- RES 1: 161.99 Intraday high
- PRICE: 161.58 @ 07:12 GMT Dec 16
- SUP 1: 158.67/157.87 Low Dec / 09
- SUP 2: 156.18 Low Dec 03 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 155.15 Low Sep 16 and a key support
- SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 8 / 14 2023
EURJPY continues to trade higher as the cross extends the current corrective cycle. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. However, price has pierced the 50-day EMA, at 161.58. A clear break of this average would undermine a bearish theme and signal scope for a stronger recovery. On the downside, initial support to watch is 158.67, the Dec 11 low. A break of this level would signal a reversal.
AUDUSD TECHS: Southbound
- RES 4: 0.6733 High Oct 13
- RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 and a reversal trigger
- RES 2: 0.6538 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.6451 20-day EMA5
- PRICE: 0.6372 @ 07:53 GMT Dec 16
- SUP 1: 0.6337 Low Dec 11
- SUP 3: 0.6300 Round number support
- SUP 3: 0.6270 Low Oct 26 ‘23
- SUP 4: 0.6259 1.000 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
The trend direction in AUDUSD remains down and last week’s extension reinforces the current bearish theme. The move lower maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 0.6259 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6451, the 20-day EMA.
USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Trend Sequence
- RES 4: 1.4416 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4327 2.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4296 2.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4246 2.00 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- PRICE: 1.4224 @ 08:01 GMT Dec 16
- SUP 1: 1.4084/3955 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 1.3928 Low Nov 25 and a key support
- SUP 3: 1.3822 Low Nov 6
- SUP 4: 1.3747 Low Oct 17
USDCAD bulls remain in the driver’s seat and last week’s gains reinforce the current bullish theme. The pair has cleared 1.4178, the Nov 26 high, to confirm resumption of the uptrend and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 1.4246 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at 1.3928, the Nov 25 low. Initial support to watch lies at 1.4084, the 20-day EMA.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (H5) Bear Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 137.72 High Oct 1 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 137.28 High Oct 2
- RES 2: 136.52/137.18 High Dec 6 / 2 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 135.41/136.01 20-day EMA / High Dec 12
- PRICE: 134.52 @ 05:44 GMT Dec 16
- SUP 1: 134.39 Low Dec 13
- SUP 2 134.98 61.8% retracement of the Nov 6 - Dec 2 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 133.62 Low Nov 22
- SUP 4: 133.22 76.4% retracement of the Nov 6 - Dec 2 bull cycle
The current bearish cycle in Bund futures remains in play and Friday’s extension signals scope for a continuation of the bear leg. Price is trading at its recent lows and sights are on 133.98, a Fibonacci retracement point. A break of this level would strengthen the current downleg. For bulls, a reversal higher would highlight the end of the correction. First key resistance is 136.01, the Dec 12 high.
BOBL TECHS: (H5) Bear Threat Still Present
- RES 4: 119.813 2.382 proj of the Nov 6 - 12 - 18 price swing
- RES 3: 119.674 2.236 proj of the Nov 6 - 12 - 18 price swing
- RES 2: 119.280/119.480 High Dec 4 and 5 / High Dec 3
- RES 1: 118.632/119.130 20-day EMA / High Dec 11
- PRICE: 118.230 @ 06:09 GMT Dec 16
- SUP 1: 118.170 Low Dec 12
- SUP 2: 118.059 61.8% retracement of the Nov 6 - Dec 2 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 117.850 Low Nov 22
- SUP 4: 117.723 76.4% retracement of the Nov 6 - Dec 2 bull cycle
The uptrend in Bobl futures remains intact, however a corrective cycle is in play and this has resulted in a continued pullback from the Dec 2 high. Price has cleared the 20-day EMA signalling scope for a continuation near-term. An extension would open 118.059, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a reversal higher would signal the end of the corrective cycle. The first key resistance to watch is 119.130, the Dec 11 high.
SCHATZ TECHS: (H5) Corrective Cycle
- RES 4: 107.592 1.236 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - 26 price swing
- RES 3: 107.505 1.000 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - 26 price swing
- RES 2: 107.480 High Dec 2 / 3 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 107.192/365 20-day EMA / High Dec 12
- PRICE: 107.060 @ 06:17 GMT Dec 16
- SUP 1: 107.030 Low Dec 12
- SUP 2: 107.005 Low Nov 21
- SUP 3: 106.960 Low Nov 20
- SUP 4: 106.920 Low Nov 18
The trend structure in Schatz futures remains bullish and recent weakness appears to be a correction. A continuation lower would signal scope for a move towards 107.005, the Nov 21 low. For bulls, a reversal higher would highlight the end of the corrective cycle. First key short-term resistance to watch is 107.365, the Dec 12 high. Clearance of this level would be a bullish development.
GILT TECHS: (H5) Short-Term Bear Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 96.83 2.618 proj of the Nov 18 - 19 - 20 price swing
- RES 3: 96.67 2.500 proj of the Nov 18 - 19 - 20 price swing
- RES 2: 96.18/54 High Dec 5 / 3
- RES 1: 95.16/95.73 20-day EMA / High Dec 10
- PRICE: 94.32 @ Close Dec 13
- SUP 1: 94.12 Low Dec 13
- SUP 2: 93.96 Low Nov 22
- SUP 3: 93.40 Low Nov 18 and a key short-term support
- SUP 4: 93.00 Round number support
Gilt futures traded sharply lower last week, resulting in a move through support at 95.49, the Dec 4 low, and 95.17, the Nov 28 low. A continuation down would expose key support at 93.40, the Nov 18 low. A breach of this support would strengthen the bearish development and highlight a reversal. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 96.54, the Dec 3 high. Initial resistance is at 95.16, the 20-day EMA.
BTP TECHS: (H5) Retracement Mode Extends
- RES 4: 124.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 123.83 1.764 proj of the Nov 7 - 15 - 18 price swing
- RES 2: 123.43 1.618 proj of the Nov 7 - 15 - 18 price swing
- RES 1: 122.85/123.34 High Dec 12 / 11 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 121.33 @ Close Dec 13
- SUP 1: 121.07 38.2% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 11 bull cycle
- SUP 2: 120.37 50.0% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 11 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 119.67 61.8% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 11 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 119.11 Low Nov 18
BTP futures remain in a bull cycle, however, a corrective cycle has resulted in a move lower and last week’s sell-off signals potential for an extension near-term. The contract has breached the 20-day EMA and this open 121.07, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 123.34, the Dec 11 high. A breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the recent uptrend.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z4) Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 5184.22 3.236 proj of the Nov 19 - 25 - 27 price swing
- RES 3: 5150.00 3.00 proj of the Nov 19 - 25 - 27 price swing
- RES 2: 5106.00 High Sep 30 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 5015.00 High Oct 29
- PRICE: 4963.00 @ 06:32 GMT Dec 16
- SUP 1: 4902.90/4844.00 20-day EMA / High Nov 25
- SUP 2: 4760.00 Low Dec 2
- SUP 3: 4699.00 Low Nov 19 and bear trigger
- SUP 4: 4707.00 Low Aug 9
A bull cycle in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact and price continues to trade closer to its recent highs. The contract has recently breached the 50-day EMA. The clear break of this average strengthens a bullish theme and note that 4961.00, the Nov 6 high, has also been cleared. Sights are on 5015.00 next, the Oct 29 high. Key support is 4699.00, the Nov 19 low. Initial support to watch lies at 4902.90, the 20-day EMA.
E-MINI S&P: (H5) Bullish Trend Structure
- RES 4: 6184.00 1.236 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
- RES 3: 6200.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 6194.19 1.236 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
- RES 1: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 6129.75 @ 07:21 GMT Dec 16
- SUP 1: 6097.76 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 6043.00/6004.31 Low Nov 26 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 5970.25 Low Nov 21
- SUP 4: 5921.00 Low Nov 19
The S&P E-Minis contract remains bullish and the latest shallow pullback is considered corrective. Recent gains confirm a resumption of the uptrend and signal scope for a continuation near-term. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. A resumption of the trend would open 6194.19, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch lies at 6097.76 the 20-day EMA.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (G5) Trend Outlook Remains Bearish
- RES 4: $84.32 - High Jul 5 and a key resistance
- RES 3: $81.83 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $79.98/80.44 - High Oct 7 / 76.4% of Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- RES 1: $75.79 - High Nov 5
- PRICE: $74.22 @ 07:08 GMT Dec 16
- SUP 1: $69.95 - Low Oct 29
- SUP 2: $69.52/67.89 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $66.70 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $64.34 - 2.000 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
Despite last week’s gains, the outlook in Brent futures remains bearish and moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the bear leg would open $69.52 the Oct 1 low, and $67.89, the Sep 10 low and a key support. For bulls, a clearer reversal higher would instead refocus attention on key resistance at $79.98, the Oct 7 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged at $75.79, the Nov 5 high.
WTI TECHS: (F5) Recent Bounce Appears Corrective
- RES 4: $80.25 - High Jul 5
- RES 3: $78.03 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $74.83/77.04 - High Nov 22 / 8 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $71.51/72.41 - High Dec 4 / High Nov 7
- PRICE: $70.90 @ 07:15 GMT Dec 16
- SUP 1: $66.32 - Low Oct 29
- SUP 2: $65.74/63.90 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $62.73 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number
A bearish threat in WTI futures remains present and last week’s gains are - for now - considered corrective. A resumption of the bear cycle would open $65.74, the Oct 1 low, and $63.90, the Sep 10 low and key support. For bulls, a stronger reversal to the upside would instead refocus attention on the key short-term resistance at $77.04, the Oct 8 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged at $72.41, the Nov 7 high.
GOLD TECHS: Corrective Pullback
- RES 4: $2790.1 - High Oct 31 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $2750.0 - High Nov 5
- RES 2: $2730.4 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg
- RES 1: $2726.2 - High Dec 12
- PRICE: $2654.9 @ 07:23 GMT Dec 16
- SUP 1: $2643.6 - Intraday low
- SUP 2: $2605.3/2564.4 - Low Nov 26 / 18
- SUP 3: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support
- SUP 4: $2511.1 - Low Sep 12
Gold has pulled back from its recent highs. Trend signals remain bullish and a move lower is considered corrective. A key short-term resistance at $2721.4, the Nov 25 high, has been pierced and this represents a positive development. A continuation higher would expose key resistance at $2790.1, the Oct 31 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. First key support is $2605.3, the Nov 26 low.
SILVER TECHS: Bearish Trend Set-Up
- RES 4: $35.226 - 61.8% of the 2011 - 2020 major bear leg
- RES 3: $35.167 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 2: $33.125/34.903 - High Nov 1 / High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $32.338 - High Dec 12
- PRICE: $30.641 @ 08:04 GMT Dec 16
- SUP 1: $29.642 - Low Nov 28
- SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8
A bear cycle in Silver that started Oct 23 remains in play and recent gains appear to have been a correction. Price has recently traded through a trendline drawn from the Aug 8 low. A clear resumption of the bear leg would open $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, a continuation of recent gains would instead signal scope for a climb towards $33.125, the Nov 1 high.