MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold in Midst of Corrective Pull Lower

Price Signal Summary – Gold in Midst of Corrective Pull Lower

• S&P E-minis are unchanged and remain in consolidation mode. Price is trading above the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 4109.81. A resumption of gains would open key resistance and the bull trigger at 4206.25, the May 1 high. Eurostoxx 50 futures continue to consolidate. Price is trading above support at 4244.60, the 50-day EMA. The recent move down is considered corrective and the broader uptrend is intact.
• EURUSD is trading at its recent lows. The pair maintains a softer tone following the recent pullback and break of former support at 1.0942, May 2 low. The 50-day EMA, at 1.0891 and a key support, has been breached. This signals scope for an extension lower towards 1.0831. EURGBP trend conditions remain bearish and the cross continues to trade closer to its recent lows. The break of 0.8719, the Mar 15 low, confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle that began Feb 3 and the focus is on 0.8649, a Fibonacci retracement. EURJPY support at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 146.22, remains intact and the contract is trading higher again today as it extends the bounce from 146.13, the May 11 low. A continuation higher would open 149.27, the May 8 high.
• Gold trend conditions are bullish, however, the yellow metal remains in bearish cycle and the recent move lower is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up and this highlights an uptrend. Support to watch is $1976.8, the 50-day EMA and $1969.3, the Apr 19 low. WTI futures remain below recent highs and the short-term outlook is bearish. The recovery from the May 4 low appears to have been a correction and this allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Initial resistance is at $73.93, the Apr 28 low ahead of $76.92, the Apr 28 high.
• Bund futures have continued to pullback this week, extending the move lower from 137.29, the May 11 high. The contract has cleared support at the 20-day EMA and attention turns to 134.99, the May 10 low. Gilt futures traded lower but remains above key support at 99.73, the Apr 19 low. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on resistance at 102.46 the May 3 high, where a break is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trading At Its Recent Lows

• RES 4: 1.1127 1.00 projection of the Mar 15 - 23 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1054/95 High May 8 / High Apr 26 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.1007 High May 10
• RES 1: 1.0945 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0866 @ 05:49 BST May 17
• SUP 1: 1.0831 Low Apr 10
• SUP 2: 1.0805 50.0% retracement of the Mar 15 - Apr 26 bull run
• SUP 3: 1.0788 Low Apr 3
• SUP 4: 1.0737 61.8% retracement of the Mar 15 - Apr 26 bull run

EURUSD is trading at its recent lows. The pair maintains a softer tone following the recent pullback and break of former support at 1.0942, May 2 low. The 50-day EMA, at 1.0891 and a key support, has been breached. This signals scope for an extension lower towards 1.0831, the Apr 10 low and 1.0805, a Fibonacci retracement. The current pullback is still considered corrective. Initial firm resistance is at 1.0945, the 20-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Extension Lower Would Expose The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.2814 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.2767 61.8% of the Jun 1 ‘21 - Sep 26 ‘22 downtrend
• RES 2: 1.2680 High May 10 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2547/2641 High May 16 / 11
• PRICE: 1.2478 @ 06:01 BST May 17
• SUP 1: 1.2445 Low May 12 / 15
• SUP 2: 1.2404 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2353/45 Low Apr 17 / 10 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.2275 Low Apr 3

The trend outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish, however, a short-term corrective cycle remains in play following the pullback from last week’s high of 1.2680, on May 10. Prices are trading closer to recent lows. An extension lower would expose the 50-day EMA which intersects at 1.2404 - a key short-term support. A clear break of this average would strengthen bearish conditions. On the upside, the bull trigger is unchanged at 1.2680.

EURGBP TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Lows

• RES 4: 0.8875 High Apr 25 and key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 0.8835 High May 3
• RES 2: 0.8781 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8735/51 High May 11 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8707 @ 06:14 BST May 17
• SUP 1: 0.8661 Low May 11
• SUP 2: 0.8649 76.4% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 3: 0.8593 Low Dec 15 2022
• SUP 4: 0.8562 Low Dec 13 2022

EURGBP trend conditions remain bearish and the cross continues to trade closer to its recent lows. The break of 0.8719, the Mar 15 low, confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle that began Feb 3 and the focus is on 0.8649, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, a key resistance is seen at 0.8835, the May 3 high. A break would ease a bearish threat. Initial firm resistance is at 0.8751, the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Recovery Extends

• RES 4: 139.59 50.0% retracement of the Oct - Jan bear cycle
• RES 3: 138.17 High Dec 15
• RES 2: 137.77/91 High May 2 / High Mar 8 and key resistance
• RES 1: 137.00 Round number resistance
• PRICE: 136.76 @ 06:47 BST May 17
• SUP 1: 134.96/62 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 133.50 Low May 4
• SUP 3: 133.02 Low Apr 26 and a key near-term support
• SUP 4: 132.75 61.8% retracement of the Mar 24 - May 2 bull leg

USDJPY continues to appreciate. Resistance at 136.63, the May 3 high, has been cleared and this signals scope for a continuation towards 137.77, the May 2 high and 137.91, the Mar 8 high. A break of this resistance zone would strengthen bullish conditions. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 134.96, the 20-day EMA. Key support is far off at 133.50, the May 4 low. A break of this level would reinstate a bearish theme.

EURJPY TECHS: Extends Bounce From Last Week’s Low

• RES 4: 152.00 1.382 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 3: 151.61 High May 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 150.39 High May 3
• RES 1: 149.27 High May 8
• PRICE: 148.47 @ 07:06 BST May 17
• SUP 1: 147.21 Low May 15
• SUP 2: 146.22/13 50-day EMA / Low May 11
• SUP 3: 145.67 High Mar 31
• SUP 4: 145.02 2.0% 10-dma envelope

EURJPY support at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 146.22, remains intact and the contract is trading higher again today as it extends the bounce from 146.13, the May 11 low. A continuation higher would open 149.27, the May 8 high. Key resistance is far off at 151.61, the May 2 high. On the downside, a clear break of the 50-day EMA is required to signal scope for a deeper pullback.

AUDUSD TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 0.6921 High Feb 20
• RES 3: 0.6861 50.0% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6824 High Feb 24
• RES 1: 0.6710/6818 50-day EMA / High May 10
• PRICE: 0.6641 @ 07:57 BST May 17
• SUP 1: 0.6634 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.6565 Low May 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6547 61.8% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.6403 76.4% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle

AUDUSD maintains a softer tone following the pullback from 0.6818, the May 10 high. A resumption of weakness would expose key support at 0.6565, the Mar 10 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that started Feb 2 and highlight a range breakout. On the upside, a breach of 0.6818 is required to reinstate a bullish theme and this would expose 0.6861, a Fibonacci retracement.

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Short-Term Outlook

• RES 4: 1.3695 High Mar 28
• RES 3: 1.3668 High Apr 28 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3640 High May 3
• RES 1: 1.3568 High May 15
• PRICE: 1.3490 @ 08:02 BST May 17
• SUP 1: 1.3404 Low May 16
• SUP 2: 1.3363/15 Low May 11 / 8
• SUP 3: 1.3302 Low Apr 14 and a key near-term support
• SUP 4: 1.3275 Low Feb 14

USDCAD found support at yesterday’s low - a possible bullish development. A strong rally last week has eased recent bearish pressure and the pair has traded through the 50-day EMA, currently at 1.3516. A clear break of this average would strengthen the case for bulls and signal scope for a climb towards resistance at 1.3668, the Apr 28 high. Key support lies at 1.3302, the Apr 14 low, where a break is required to reinstate the recent bearish theme.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Trades Through The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 138.09 High Apr 6
• RES 3: 137.55 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 2: 137.29 High May 11
• RES 1: 136.38 High May 16
• PRICE: 135.42 @ 05:18 BST May 17
• SUP 1: 135.14/134.99 2 Low May 16 / 10
• SUP 2: 134.35 Low May 2
• SUP 3: 133.64 Low Apr 28
• SUP 4: 133.10 Low Apr 19 and the bear trigger

Bund futures have continued to pullback this week, extending the move lower from 137.29, the May 11 high. The contract has cleared support at the 20-day EMA and attention turns to 134.99, the May 10 low. This represents a key short-term support and a break would signal scope for a deeper retracement. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 137.29 where a break is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Pierces Key Short-Term Support

• RES 4: 119.621 76.4% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 downleg
• RES 3: 119.190 High Apr 6
• RES 2: 119.120 High May 4 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 118.610/119.020 High May 16 / 11
• PRICE: 118.060 @ 05:27 BST May 17
• SUP 1: 117.910 Low May 16
• SUP 2: 117.820 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 117.370 Low May 2
• SUP 4: 116.890/420 Low Apr 28 / 19 and the bear trigger

Bobl futures traded lower Tuesday and a short-term corrective cycle remains in play. The contract has pierced support at 117.930, the May 10 low. A clear break would signal scope for an extension lower and open 117.370, the May 2 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 119.120, the May 4 high where a break is required to reinstate the recent bullish theme.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 106.271 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 3: 106.190 High Apr 6
• RES 2: 106.020/106.120 High May 11 / 4
• RES 1: 105.910 High May 16
• PRICE: 105.745 @ 05:33 BST May 17
• SUP 1: 105.690 Low May 16
• SUP 2: 105.475 Low May 2
• SUP 3: 105.350 Low Apr 28
• SUP 4: 105.165 Low Apr 19 / 24 and bear trigger

Schatz futures bullish conditions remain intact, however, a short-term corrective cycle is still in play and the contract traded lower Tuesday. Price has pierced support at 105.705, the May 10 low. A clear break of this level would strengthen near-term bearish conditions and signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 105.475 initially, the May 2 low. On the upside, the bull trigger has been defined at 106.120, the May 4 high.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Watching Key Support At 99.73

• RES 4: 102.99 High Apr 14
• RES 3: 102.63 38.2% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 2: 101.98/102.46 High May 11 / 3
• RES 1: 101.29 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 100.43 @ Close May 16
• SUP 1: 99.97 Low May 10
• SUP 2: 99.73 Low Apr 19 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 99.55 Low Mar 8
• SUP 4: 99.20 Low Feb 28 and key support

Gilt futures traded lower but remains above key support at 99.73, the Apr 19 low. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on resistance at 102.46 the May 3 high, where a break is required to reinstate a bullish theme. This would signal scope for climb towards 102.63, a Fibonacci retracement and 102.99, the Apr 14 high. For bears, a break of 99.73 would instead confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started Mar 20.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 117.17 High Mar 24 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 116.97 High Apr 6
• RES 2: 116.17 76.4% retracement of the Mar 24 - Apr 24 downleg
• RES 1: 115.89 High May 11
• PRICE: 114.66 @ Close May 16
• SUP 1: 113.91 Low May 10
• SUP 2: 113.70 Low May 2
• SUP 3: 112.93/89 Low Apr 24 / 61.8% of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
• SUP 4: 111.88 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally

BTP futures remain in a bull cycle and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The contract recently pierced resistance at 115.84, the May 4 high and an extension higher would open 116.17 next, a Fibonacci retracement. A break of this level would expose 116.97, the Apr 6 high ahead of key resistance at 117.17, the Mar 24 high. On the downside, support to watch lies at 113.91, May 10 low. A break would allow for a deeper retracement.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 4520.00 High June 2001 (cont)
• RES 3: 4403.50 High Nov 18 2021 (cont) and a major resistance
• RES 2: 4381.50 High Jan 5 2022 (cont)
• RES 1: 4363.00 High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4303.00 @ 06:41 BST May 17
• SUP 1: 4244.60 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4233.00 Low May 4
• SUP 3: 4175.00 Low Mar 30
• SUP 4: 4164.00 High Mar 22

Eurostoxx 50 futures continue to consolidate. Price is trading above support at 4244.60, the 50-day EMA. The recent move down is considered corrective and the broader uptrend is intact. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a test of 4363.00, the Apr 21 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. A clear break of the 50-day EMA is required to signal a top.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M3) Watching Resistance

• RES 4: 4288.00 High Aug 19 2022
• RES 3: 4244.00 High Feb 2 and a medium-term bull trigger
• RES 2: 4223.00 High Feb 14
• RES 1: 4173.25/4206.25 High May 10 / 1
• PRICE: 4127.75 @ 06:41 BST May 17
• SUP 1: 4062.25 Low May 4 and key near-term support
• SUP 2: 4052.50 Low Mar 30
• SUP 3: 4022.75 50.0% retracement of the Mar 13 - May 1 bull leg
• SUP 4: 4006.00 Low Mar 29

S&P E-minis are unchanged and remain in consolidation mode. Price is trading above the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 4109.81. A resumption of gains would open key resistance and the bull trigger at 4206.25, the May 1 high. Clearance of this level would confirm an extension of the bull trend that started Mar 13. Key support has been defined at 4062.25, the May 4 low. A move through this level would instead highlight a bearish threat.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N3) Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: $85.08 - High Apr 18
• RES 3: $82.88 - High Apr 25
• RES 2: $79.07 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $77.15/60 - 20-day EMA / High May 10
• PRICE: $74.33 @ 07:01 BST May 17
• SUP 1: $73.49/71.28 - Low May 15 / 4
• SUP 2: $70.10 - Low Mar 20 and a key support
• SUP 3: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $65.72 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)

Brent futures remain below the recent highs and the near-term outlook is bearish. The recovery from the May 4 low appears to have been a correction and allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. The bearish wave from Apr 12, signals scope for a continuation lower towards key support at $70.10, the Mar 20 low. Clearance of this level would reinforce bearish conditions. Initial resistance is seen at $77.15, the 20-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (M3) Trend Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: $81.24 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $79.18 - High Apr 24
• RES 2: $76.92 - High Apr 28 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: $73.93 - Low Apr 28
• PRICE: $70.33 @ 07:13 BST May 17
• SUP 1: $68.48/63.64 - Low May 5 / 4
• SUP 2: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021
• SUP 3: $60.00 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $57.63 - Low Apr 5 2021

WTI futures remain below recent highs and the short-term outlook is bearish. The recovery from the May 4 low appears to have been a correction and this allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Initial resistance is at $73.93, the Apr 28 low ahead of $76.92, the Apr 28 high. On the downside, the recent print below $64.58, the Mar 20 low and a key support, reinforces a bearish theme. A clear break of it would resume the medium-term downtrend.

GOLD TECHS: Corrective Pullback Extends

• RES 4: $2100.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $2075.5 - All-Time High Aug 7 2020
• RES 2: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $2022.2/2063.0 - High May 15 / 4 and key resistance
• PRICE: $1988.1 07:19 BST May 17
• SUP 1: $1976.8 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1969.3 - Low Apr 19 and key support
• SUP 3: $1934.3 - Low Mar 22
• SUP 4: $1900.0 - Round number support

Gold trend conditions are bullish, however, the yellow metal remains in bearish cycle and the recent move lower is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up and this highlights an uptrend. Support to watch is $1976.8, the 50-day EMA and $1969.3, the Apr 19 low. A clear break of this support zone is required to highlight a stronger bearish threat. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $2063.0, the May 4 high.

SILVER TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: $26.771 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $26.135 - High May 5
• RES 1: $24.492 - Apr 25 low and double top mid-point
• PRICE: $23.734 @ 07:53 BST May 17
• SUP 1: $23.572 - Low Apr 3
• SUP 2: $23.238 - Low Mar 30
• SUP 3: $22.761 - Low Mar 23
• SUP 4: $22.284 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally

Silver remains bearish, and traded lower yesterday. Last week’s sell-off confirmed a short-term top plus a double top reversal following the break of $24.492, Apr 25 low. The metal has also breached the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This signals scope for a move towards $23.238, the Mar 30 low. Initial resistance is seen at $24.492, the double top mid-point. Key resistance has been defined at $26.135, the May 5 high.