MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold Nears Breakout Level

Price Signal Summary – Gold Nears Breakout Level

• S&P E-Minis are trading lower, extending Monday’s bearish start to the week. The contract has breached the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 4454.59 and this reinforces a bearish threat. The move below 4400.00 signals scope for weakness towards 4362.63 next, a Fibonacci retracement. EUROSTOXX 50 futures appear vulnerable. The contract traded lower last week and is once again below the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Support at 3735.00, the Mar 18 low, has also been breached. The move lower undermines the recent bull theme and highlights a developing bearish threat.
• EURUSD is trading closer to its recent lows and maintains a bearish theme. Sights are on the key support at 1.0806, Mar 7 low and the bear trigger. The recent failure at 1.1185, Mar 31 high, continues to highlight a bearish threat and last week’s move lower has reinforced this theme. A bearish threat in EURGBP remains present. This follows last week’s move lower that marked an extension of the reversal from the 0.8512 high on Mar 31 and highlights potential for a continuation of the current bear leg. AUDUSD bear cycle remains intact. The pair recently found resistance at 0.7661, Apr 5 high. The reversal lower highlights a S/T bearish threat and suggests potential for an extension lower.
• Gold traded higher yesterday and probed initial resistance at $1966.1, the Mar 24 high. A clear breach of this hurdle would signal a range breakout and suggest scope for an extension of short-term gains. Recent weakness in WTI futures have resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA. The move lower marks an extension of the current bearish cycle and the print below the 50-day EMA suggests scope for a continuation lower near-term.
• Bunds maintain a softer tone and have again traded to a fresh cycle low. The primary trend remains down. Moving average studies are in a bear mode and a broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Gilt futures remain bearish. The contract found resistance last week at 122.35, Apr 4 high. The pullback means price failed to remain above the 20-day EMA, and that an important resistance at 122.72, Mar 18 high, remains intact.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Key Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.1222 61.8% of Feb 10 - Mar 7 sell-off
• RES 3: 1.1185/1226 High Mar 31 / 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 2: 1.1091 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.0985 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0878 @ 06:02 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: 1.0837 Low Mar 8
• SUP 2: 1.0806 Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0767 Low May 7 2020
• SUP 4: 1.0727 Low Apr 24, 2020

EURUSD is trading closer to its recent lows and maintains a bearish theme. Sights are on the key support at 1.0806, Mar 7 low and the bear trigger. The recent failure at 1.1185, Mar 31 high, continues to highlight a bearish threat and last week’s move lower has reinforced this theme. A break of 1.0806 would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 1.0767, the May 7 2020 low. Clearance of 1.1185 is needed to reinstate a bull theme.

GBPUSD TECHS: Path Of Least Resistance Remains Down

• RES 4: 1.3439 High Feb 25
• RES 3: 1.3398 61.8% retracement of the Feb 10 - Mar 15 downleg
• RES 2: 1.3252/98 50-day EMA / High Mar 23
• RES 1: 1.3136/83 20-day EMA / High Mar 30
• PRICE: 1.3025 @ 06:04 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: 1.2983 Low Apr 8
• SUP 2: 1.2954 1.764 proj of the Jan 13 - 27 - Feb 10 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2933 Low Nov 5 2020
• SUP 4: 1.2855 Low Nov 2 2020 and a key support

GBPUSD remains vulnerable. The pair traded lower Friday, resulting in a print below key support at 1.3000, the Mar 15 low and a bear trigger. The move lower confirms a resumption of the primary downtrend and an extension of the recent pullback from 1.3298, the Mar 23 high. A continuation lower would open 1.2954, a Fibonacci projection level. Initial resistance is at 1.3125, the 20-day EMA ahead of the key 50-day EMA level at 1.3243.

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 0.8624 High Oct 1 2021
• RES 3: 0.8600 High Dec 8 2022
• RES 2: 0.8512/55 High Mar 31 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 0.8405/8435 High Apr 11 / High Apr 4
• PRICE: 0.8352 @ 06:09 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: 0.8296 Low Mar 23 and a key support
• SUP 2: 0.8276 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 31 rally
• SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8117 High Apr 7 2016

A bearish threat in EURGBP remains present. This follows last week’s move lower that marked an extension of the reversal from the 0.8512 high on Mar 31 and highlights potential for a continuation of the current bear leg. The focus on 0.8296, the Mar 23 low. A break of this support would open 0.8276, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 0.8405, Monday’s high ahead of 0.8435, the Apr 4 high.

USDJPY TECHS: Bullish Price Structure

• RES 4: 128.15 High May 17 2002
• RES 3: 126.71 3.50 proj of the Dec 3 ‘21 - Jan 4 -24 price swing
• RES 2: 126.26 3.382 proj of the Dec 3 ‘21 - Jan 4 -24 price swing
• RES 1: 125.86 High Jun 5 2015 and a major resistance
• PRICE: 125.41 @ 06:14 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: 123.47 Low Apr 6 and 7
• SUP 2: 121.91 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 121.28 Low Mar 31 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 120.00 Round number support

USDJPY started the week on a firmer note and breached key near term resistance 125.09, the Mar 28 high. The break higher confirms the end of the recent corrective cycle and more importantly, confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend. Moving averages also point north. The focus is on 125.86 next, the Jun 5 2015 high and a major resistance. On the downside, key trend support has been defined at 121.28, the Mar 31 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Still Trading Below Its Recent High

• RES 4: 139.00 High Aug 21 2015 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 138.62 High Aug 25 2015
• RES 2: 137.50/53 High Feb 2 ‘18 and major resistance / High Mar 28
• RES 1: 137.13 High Apr 11
• PRICE: 136.44 @ 06:32 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: 133.94/90 Low Apr 5 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 133.15 High Feb 10
• SUP 3: 132.06 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 131.59 Low Mar 22

The recent EURJPY pullback from 137.53, Mar 28 high appears to be a correction and the move lower has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Support to watch is 133.94/90, the Mar 28 low and the 20-day EMA. A break would open 133.15, the Feb 10 high. The primary trend remains up and the bull trigger is 137.50/53. Clearance of this hurdle would expose 138.62, the Aug 25 2015 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Has Cleared The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 0.7762 76.4% retracement of the Feb ‘21 - Jan ‘22 downleg
• RES 3: 0.7716 High Jun 16 2021
• RES 2: 0.7648/61 2.0% 10-dma envelope / High Apr 5
• RES 1: 0.7519 High Apr 7
• PRICE: 0.7434 @ 06:37 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: 0.7400 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.7376 Low Mar 22
• SUP 3: 0.7357 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.7283 Low Mar 17

AUDUSD bear cycle remains intact. The pair recently found resistance at 0.7661, Apr 5 high. The reversal lower highlights a S/T bearish threat and suggests potential for an extension lower. Note that price activity on Apr 5 confirmed a bearish candle - a shooting star - and the subsequent move lower reinforces this pattern. The 20-day EMA at 0.7451, has been cleared. This opens the 50-day EMA at 0.7357. Key resistance is at 0.7661.

USDCAD TECHS: Heading North

• RES 4: 1.2783 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - Apr 5 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.2711 61.8% retracement of the Mar 8 - Apr 5 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.2699 High Mar 17
• RES 1: 1.2656 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.2634 @ 06:42 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: 1.2533 Low Apr 7
• SUP 2: 1.2479 Low Apr 6
• SUP 3: 1.2403/2395 Low Apr 5 / 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.2387 Low Nov 10 2021

USDCAD has traded higher again, extending last week’s reversal from 1.2403, the Apr 5 low. Price action on Apr 5, in Japanese candlestick terms, is a long-legged doji. This is a short-term reversal signal and continues to suggest scope for an extension higher. The 50-day EMA, at 1.2629 and the 200 DMA, at 1.2623, have been breached. This opens 1.2699 next, the Mar 17 high. Initial support to watch is at 1.2533, the Apr 7 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M2) Another Fresh Cycle Low

• RES 4: 161.81 High Mar 16
• RES 3: 160.31 High Mar 23
• RES 2: 159.79 High Apr 4 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 157.87/58.74 High Apr 7 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 154.77 @ 05:03 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: 154.61 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 154.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 153.48 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 152.65 Low Sep 1 2015 (cont)

Bunds maintain a softer tone and have again traded to a fresh cycle low. The primary trend remains down. Moving average studies are in a bear mode and a broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs, that has unfolded since Aug / Sep 2019, remains intact. 156.00 has been cleared and this opens the 154.00 handle next. Key short-term trend resistance is at 159.79, the Apr 4 high.

BOBL TECHS: (M2) Downtrend Extends

• RES 4: 130.622 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 130.160 High Mar 23
• RES 2: 129.350 High Apr 4 and a key trend resistance
• RES 1: 128.470/129.148 High Apr 8 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 127.330 @ 05:10 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: 127.280 Low Sep 18 2014 (cont) and intraday low
• SUP 2: 126.940 0.382 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 126.480 Low Jun 5 2014 (cont)
• SUP 4: 126.196 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing

Bobl futures have traded to another fresh cycle low today confirming a resumption of the primary downtrend. The move lower maintains the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and note that moving averages continue to point south. The focus is on a move towards 127.280 next (tested), the Sep 18 2014 low (cont) and 126.940, a Fibonacci projection. Key S/T resistance has been defined at 129.350, the Apr 4 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M2) Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 111.355 High Mar 21
• RES 3: 111.170 High Mar 23
• RES 2: 110.855 High Apr 4 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 110.690 High Apr 8
• PRICE: 110.345 @ 05:13 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: 110.325 Low Apr 11
• SUP 2: 110.188 0.382 proj of the Mar 7 - 30 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 110.000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 109.983 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 30 - Apr 4 price swing

Schatz futures remain weak and traded to a fresh cycle low Monday, breaking support at 110.465, the Mar 30 low. This confirms a resumption of the primary downtrend and an extension of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The move lower paves the way for weakness towards 110.188 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 110.855, the Apr 4 high.

GILT TECHS: (M2) Bearish Price Action

• RES 4: 123.52 High Mar 9
• RES 3: 122.72 High Mar 18 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 121.20/122.35 20-day EMA / High Apr 4
• RES 1: 120.47 High Apr 8
• PRICE: 119.04 @ Close Apr 11
• SUP 1: 118.95 Low Apr 11
• SUP 2: 118.93 Low Apr 26 2016 (cont)
• SUP 3: 118.05 0.618 proj of the Mar 1 - 28 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 117.04 0.764 proj of the Mar 1 - 28 - Apr 4 price swing

Gilt futures remain bearish. The contract found resistance last week at 122.35, Apr 4 high. The pullback means price failed to remain above the 20-day EMA, and that an important resistance at 122.72, Mar 18 high, remains intact. Friday’s move to a fresh trend low of 119.55 and yesterday’s extension, confirm a resumption of the downtrend. The focus is on 118.93 next, Apr 26 2016 low (cont). Key trend resistance is at 122.35, Mar 9 high.

BTP TECHS: (M2) Trend Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 140.71 High Mar 11
• RES 3: 139.23 High Mar 23
• RES 2: 137.36/38.68 20-day EMA / High Mar 31 and key resistance
• RES 1: 136.12 High Apr 7
• PRICE: 133.61 @ Close Apr 11
• SUP 1: 133.46 Low Apr 11
• SUP 2: 133.15 0.50 proj of the Mar 1 - 29 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 132.61 Low Apr 22 2020 (cont)
• SUP 4: 131.85 0.618 proj of the Mar 1 - 29 - 31 price swing

BTP futures traded lower again Monday to extend last week’s breach of support at 135.69, the Mar 29 low. The move lower, confirms a resumption of the primary downtrend and a continuation of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving averages are in a bear mode too. The focus is on 133.15 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm trend resistance is seen at 138.68, the Mar 31 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M2) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 4132.00 High Feb 10
• RES 3: 4072.00 High Feb 16
• RES 2: 3944.00/3965.50 High Mar 29 / High Feb 23
• RES 1: 3888.00 High Apr 5
• PRICE: 3708.00 @ 05:40 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: 3701.40 38.2% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally
• SUP 2: 3626.50 50.0% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally
• SUP 3: 3551.60 61.8% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally
• SUP 4: 3523.00 Low Mar 11

EUROSTOXX 50 futures appear vulnerable. The contract traded lower last week and is once again below the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Support at 3735.00, the Mar 18 low, has also been breached. The move lower undermines the recent bull theme and highlights a developing bearish threat. An extension would open 3626.50, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 3944.00, the Mar 29 high.

E-MINI S&P (M2): Clears the 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4730.50 High Jan 1
• RES 3: 4663.50 High Jan 18
• RES 2: 4631.00 High Mar 29 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 4519.75/4588.75 High Apr 8 / High Apr 5
• PRICE: 4391.25 @ 07:01 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: 4362.63 50.0% retracement of the Feb 24 - Mar 29 rally
• SUP 2: 4499.29 61.8% retracement of the Feb 24 - Mar 29 rally
• SUP 3: 4239.00 Low Mar 16
• SUP 4: 4220.92 76.4% retracement of the Feb 24 - Mar 29 rally

S&P E-Minis are trading lower, extending Monday’s bearish start to the week. The contract has breached the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 4454.59 and this reinforces a bearish threat. The move below 4400.00 signals scope for weakness towards 4362.63 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance has been established at 4519.75, the Apr 8 high A break of this resistance would ease the current bearish threat.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M2) Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $128.04 - High Mar 8
• RES 3: $125.40 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 16 downleg
• RES 2: $112.28/119.74 - High Mar 30 / High Mar 24 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: $105.61/109.90 - 20-day EMA / High Apr 5
• PRICE: $100.39 @ 06:37 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: $97.57 - Low Apr 11
• SUP 2: $94.61 - Low Mar 16 and a key support
• SUP 3: $90.58 - Low Feb 25
• SUP 4: $84.74 - Low Feb 18

Brent futures remain vulnerable following recent weakness. The contract has breached $102.19, Mar 29 low and continues to challenge a key support at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at $100.59 today. A clear break of this average would suggest scope for a deeper decline and pave the way for a move towards $94.61, the Mar 16 low. $119.74 remains the key short-term resistance.

WTI TECHS: (K2) Southbound

• RES 4: $122.73 - High Mar 9
• RES 3: $116.64/118.34 - High Mar 24 / 76.4% of Mar 7 - 15 downleg
• RES 2: $108.75/112.93 -High Mar 30 / High Mar 28
• RES 1: $101.29/105.59 - 20-day EMA / High Apr 5
• PRICE: $96.85 @ 07:14 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: $92.93 - Low Apr 11
• SUP 2: $92.20 - Low Mar 15 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: $88.49 - Low Feb 25
• SUP 4: $85.81 - Low Feb 18

Recent weakness in WTI futures have resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA. The move lower marks an extension of the current bearish cycle and the print below the 50-day EMA suggests scope for a continuation lower near-term. The focus is on the next key support at $92.20, the Mar 15 low and an important bear trigger. Initial firm resistance has been defined at $105.59, Apr 5 high where a break would ease current bearish pressure.

GOLD TECHS: Probes Key Near-Term Resistance

• RES 4: $2007.9 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - 29 downleg
• RES 3: $2001.6 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 8 - 29 downleg
• RES 2: $1980.3 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar 8 - 29 downleg
• RES 1: $1969.6 - High Apr 11
• PRICE: $1957.4 @ 07:20 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: $1913.0 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1890.2 - Low Mar 29 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: $1878.4 - Low Feb 24
• SUP 4: $1848.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Jan 28 - Mar 8 rally

Gold traded higher yesterday and probed initial resistance at $1966.1, the Mar 24 high. A clear breach of this hurdle would signal a range breakout and suggest scope for an extension of short-term gains. This would open $1980.3 and $2001.6, Fibonacci retracement levels. On the downside, key support has been defined at $1890.2, the Mar 29 low. A breach of this support would reinstate a bearish threat.

SILVER TECHS: 50-Day EMA Provides Support

• RES 4: $27.831 - High Jun 16 2021
• RES 3: $27.245 - High Jun 17 2021
• RES 2: $26.063/943 - High Mar 10 / High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $25.847 - High Mar 24
• PRICE: $25.209 @ 08:00 BST Apr 12
• SUP 1: $23.974 - Low Mar 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $23.850 - Low Feb 24
• SUP 3: $23.173 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 4: $23.082 - Low Feb 15

Silver resistance is unchanged at $25.847, the Mar 24 high. The metal has traded higher in recent sessions and this means that it has recently found support at the 50-day EMA - at $24.553 today. Clearance of $25.847 would represent a bullish development and signal potential for a climb towards $26.943, the Mar 8 high and a bull trigger. Key support below the 50-day EMA has been defined at $23.974, the Feb 24 low.