MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold Price Remains Fragile Pre-CPI

Price Signal Summary – Gold Price Remains Fragile Pre-CPI

• The S&P E-Minis trend condition is bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The contract has pierced initial support at 4069.52, the 20-day EMA. Firmer support lies at the 50-day EMA, at 4006.63. EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded higher Thursday last week to breach 4265.00, the Feb 3 high. Despite the pullback from last week’s best levels, the fresh cycle high confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 4303.20, the 2.382 projection of the Sep 29 - Oct 4 rise from the Dec 20 low.
• AUDUSD traded modestly higher into the Monday close. The uptrend remains intact, and the recent move lower highlights a correction that is allowing a recent overbought trend condition to unwind. Price has pierced support at 0.6883, the 50-day EMA. USDJPY continues to trade below the 50-day EMA, at 132.77. This average represents a key short-term level and a clear break is required to suggest scope for an extension higher that would expose 134.77, the Jan 6 high. GBPUSD maintains a softer tone despite the recovery from last week’s low - a shallow correction so far. Recent weakness reinforces a S/T bearish theme and signals scope for a continuation. Sights are on the 200-dma at 1.1947.
• Trend conditions in Gold are bearish for now, and the yellow metal remains in a corrective cycle. This follows the strong sell-off on Feb 2 / 3 and sights are on the 50-day EMA, at $1855.5. WTI futures showed above the Friday high ahead of the Monday close, marking an extension of the recovery from $72.25, the Feb 6 low. The rally has confirmed a break of the 50-day EMA, at $78.34, strengthening the current bull cycle and note that price has pierced $80.22, 76.4% of the Jan 18 - Feb 6 bear leg.
• Bund futures are trading closer to their recent lows. The contract last week breached support at 136.38, the Jan 30 low and this has strengthened the current bearish cycle. The focus is on 135.08 next, the Jan 4 low. Gilt futures broke through support to firm the downtrend Friday, opening another leg lower in the near-term. The break and close below 104.04 threatens the recent bull theme and highlights a short-term top.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Support Holds At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.1076 High Apr 1, 2022
• RES 3: 1.1054 1.236 proj of the Oct 13 -27 rally from the Jan 6 low
• RES 2: 1.0940/1.1033 High Feb 3 / High Feb 2
• RES 1: 1.0793 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0737 @ 07:39 GMT Feb 14
• SUP 1: 1.0656 Low Feb 13
• SUP 2: 1.0634 Low Jan 9
• SUP 3: 1.0484 Low Jan 6 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0461 38.2% retracement of the Sep 28 - Feb 2 bull leg

EURUSD recovered into the Monday close after a soft start. Prices are back above support at 1.0674, the 50-day EMA, for now. This represents a key short-term level and the recent move down is considered corrective. The Feb 7 price action is a doji candle pattern - a potential bullish reversal signal. A recovery would refocus attention on 1.1033, the Feb 2 high. A clear break of the 50-day EMA would instead strengthen the bearish cycle and expose 1.0634, the Jan 9 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Shallow Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 1.2506 1.382 proj of the Sep 26 - Oct 5 - Oct 12 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2401/2448 High Feb 2 / High Jan 23 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.2265 High Feb 3
• RES 1: 1.2194 / 99 High Feb 9 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.2130 @ 07:40 GMT Feb 14
• SUP 1: 1.1961/1947 Low Feb 7 / 200-dma
• SUP 2: 1.1842 Low Jan 6 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 3: 1.1859 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.1800 Round number support

GBPUSD maintains a softer tone despite the recovery from last week’s low - a shallow correction so far. Recent weakness reinforces a S/T bearish theme and signals scope for a continuation. Sights are on the 200-dma at 1.1947. A move through this level would expose key support at 1.1842, the Jan 6 low. A break of 1.1842 would highlight a potential trend reversal and a double top. Firm resistance is 1.2265, Feb 3 high. Key resistance is 1.2448, Jan 23 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 0.9097 76.4% Retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.9047 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.8992 61.8% Retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8911/8979 High Feb 7 / 3 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.8836 @ 07:43 GMT Feb 14
• SUP 1: 0.8823 Low Feb 13
• SUP 2: 0.8798 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.8762 Low Jan 30
• SUP 4: 0.8722 Low Jan 19 and a reversal trigger

EURGBP trend conditions remain bullish despite the retracement early this week. On Feb 2, the cross cleared 0.8897, the Jan 13 high. The break confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started early December and sights are on 0.8992, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. First support to watch lies at 0.8798, the 50-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Resistance At The 50-Day EMA Test, But Intact

• RES 4: 136.67 38.2% retracement of the Oct 21 - Jan 16 bear leg
• RES 3: 134.77 High Jan 6 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 134.54 Low Dec 14
• RES 1: 132.77/91 50-day EMA / High Feb 13
• PRICE: 131.98 @ 07:44 GMT Feb 14
• SUP 1: 129.81 Low Feb 10
• SUP 2: 128.09/127.23 Low Feb 2 / Low Jan 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 126.81 1.382 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 15 - 21 price swing
• SUP 4: 126.36 Low May 24 and a key support

USDJPY continues to trade below the 50-day EMA, at 132.77. This average represents a key short-term level and a clear break is required to suggest scope for an extension higher that would expose 134.77, the Jan 6 high. The broader trend direction remains down and recent gains are considered corrective. Firm support to watch is at 128.09, the Feb 2 low. The bear trigger is at 127.23, the Jan 16 low - a break would resume the downtrend.

EURJPY TECHS: Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 145.83 High Dec 20
• RES 3: 144.53 76.4% retracement of the Dec 15 - Jan 3 bear leg
• RES 2: 144.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 142.99 High Feb 6
• PRICE: 141.67 @ 07:47 GMT Feb 14
• SUP 1: 139.56/06 Low Feb 10 and a key support / Low Jan 20
• SUP 2: 138.45 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 137.92 Low Jan 19
• SUP 4: 137.39 Low Jan 3 and the bear trigger

EURJPY failed to hold on to its recent highs and remains below 142.99, the Feb 6 high. Firmer support is expected at 139.94, the Feb 3 low and the outlook remains bullish. A reversal higher would refocus attention on 142.99, where a break would confirm a continuation of the recovery that started on Jan 3. On the downside, a move below 139.94 would be bearish and expose key support at 137.39, the Jan 3 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North Despite Recent Pullback

• RES 4: 0.7245 2.00 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 13 - Dec 20 price swing
• RES 3: 0.7202 High Jun 9
• RES 2: 0.7172 1.764 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 13 - Dec 20 price swing
• RES 1: 0.7082/0.7158 High Feb 3 / 2 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6961 @ 07:48 GMT Feb 14
• SUP 1: 0.6856 Low Feb 6
• SUP 2: 0.6781 38.2% retracement of the Oct 13 - Feb 2 uptrend
• SUP 3: 0.6755 Trendline support drawn from the Oct 13 low
• SUP 4: 0.6688 Low Jan 3

AUDUSD traded modestly higher into the Monday close. The uptrend remains intact, and the recent move lower highlights a correction that is allowing a recent overbought trend condition to unwind. Price has pierced support at 0.6883, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger have been defined at 0.7158, the Feb 2 high. A break would resume the uptrend.

USDCAD TECHS: Recent Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 1.3751 High Nov 4
• RES 3: 1.3705 Dec 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.3665 High Jan 6
• RES 1: 1.3475/3521 High Feb 6 / 19 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: 1.3344 @ 07:49 GMT Feb 14
• SUP 1: 1.3325/3262 Low Feb 13 / 2
• SUP 2: 1.3226 Low Nov 15 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally
• SUP 4: 1.3131 0.764 proj of the Oct 13 - Nov 15 - Dec 16 price swing

USDCAD edged lower Monday, however price remains above its recent low of 1.3262 on Feb 2. A bearish threat remains present and recent short-term gains are most likely a correction. A resumption of weakness and a break of 1.3262, Feb 2 low, would strengthen bearish conditions and open 1.3226, the Nov 15 low and the bear trigger. On the upside, the pair needs to clear 1.3521, the Jan 19 high, to signal a stronger reversal.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H3) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 142.59 0.764 proj of the Jan 2 - 19 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: 141.70 High Dec 13
• RES 2: 140.73 High Jan 19 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 137.71/139.86 50-day EMA / High Feb 2
• PRICE: 136.07 @ 15:04 GMT Feb 13
• SUP 1: 135.59 Low Feb 13
• SUP 2: 135.08 Low Jan 4
• SUP 3: 134.52 76.4% retracement of the Jan 2 - 19 bull run
• SUP 4: 133.79 Low Jan 3

Bund futures are trading closer to their recent lows. The contract last week breached support at 136.38, the Jan 30 low and this has strengthened the current bearish cycle. The focus is on 135.08 next, the Jan 4 low. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, reinforcing current conditions and highlighting bearish sentiment. On the upside, resistance to watch is at 137.71, the 50-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (H3) Short-Term Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 119.086 76.4% retracement of the Dec 7 - Jan 2 downleg
• RES 3: 118.880 High Jan 19 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 117.725/118.670 50-day EMA / High Feb 2
• RES 1: 117.460 High Feb 9
• PRICE: 116.800 @ 20:17 GMT Feb 13
• SUP 1: 116.650 Low Feb 13
• SUP 2: 116.540 Low Jan 4
• SUP 3: 116.405 76.4% retracement of the Jan 2 - 19 bull run
• SUP 4: 116.030 Low Jan 3

Bobl futures maintain a weaker tone following the reversal lower from 118.670, the Feb 2 high. Key short-term support at 117.020, the Jan 30 low, has been breached. The break of this level reinforces bearish conditions and signals scope for an extension towards 116.405, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, the resistance to watch is at 117.725, the 50-day EMA. A break above this average would ease bearish pressure.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H3) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 106.296 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 2 bear leg
• RES 3: 106.130/106.155 High Feb 2 / High Jan 18 and bull trigger
• RES 2: 105.978 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 105.850 High Feb 7
• PRICE: 105.520 @ 15:10 GMT Feb 13
• SUP 1: 105.495 Low Feb 13
• SUP 2: 105.480 Low Jan 3
• SUP 3: 105.360 Low Jan 2 and key support
• SUP 4: 104.708 1.0% 10-dma Envelope

Schatz futures started the week softer, printing a new pullback low of 105.495. This confirms the break below support at 105.640, the Feb 1 low. The clear break here strengthens the current bearish theme and signals scope for weakness towards 105.360, the Jan 2 low. On the upside, key resistance has been defined at 106.130, the Feb 2 high and 106.155, the Jan 18 high. Clearance of this resistance zone would reinstate a bullish condition.

GILT TECHS: (H3) Cracks Support

• RES 4: 108.96 2.236 proj of the Jan 23 - 25 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: 108.44 2.00 proj of the Jan 23 - 25 - 30 price swing
• RES 2: 107.78 High Feb 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 105.67/106.88 High Feb 9 / 6
• PRICE: 103.77 @ 15:12 GMT Feb 13
• SUP 1: 103.75 50-dma
• SUP 2: 103.52 Low Feb 13
• SUP 3: 103.21 Low Jan 17
• SUP 4: 103.13 2.0% 10-dma envelope

Gilt futures broke through support to firm the downtrend Friday, opening another leg lower in the near-term. The break and close below 104.04 threatens the recent bull theme and highlights a short-term top. Prices have also slipped through 103.94, the 50-day EMA, further weakening the outlook. Initial resistance is seen at 105.67, the Feb 9 high where a break is required to ease the current bearish threat. This would also signal a short-term reversal.

BTP TECHS: (H3) Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 121.26 0.764 proj of the Dec 30 - Jan 19 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: 120.00 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 118.56/96 High Jan 19 / Dec 7 and a key resistance zone
• RES 1: 116.33/118.18 High Feb 9 / High Feb 2
• PRICE: 115.32 @ 15:29 GMT Feb 13
• SUP 1: 114.22/113.47 Low Feb 8 / Low Jan 30 and key support
• SUP 2: 112.26 61.8% retracement of the Dec 30 - Jan 19 rally
• SUP 3: 111.59 Low Jan 6
• SUP 4: 110.77 Low Jan 4 and 76.4% of the Dec 30 - Jan 19 rally

BTP futures traded sharply higher on Feb 2 and the contract breached resistance at 116.94, the Jan 25 high. The contract has pulled back from its recent highs, however, the move lower is considered corrective - for now. Key short-term support to watch lies at 113.47, the Jan 30 low. A break would be a bearish development. A reversal higher would signal scope for a test of firm resistance at 118.56, the Jan 19 high and 118.96, the Dec 7 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H3) Circling Below Cycle Highs

• RES 4: 4335.50 High Jan 6 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 4324.50 High Jan 13 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: 4303.20 2.382 proj of the Sep 29 - Oct 4 rise from Dec 20 low
• RES 1: 4281.00 High Feb 9
• PRICE: 4258.00 @ 07:36 GMT Feb 14
• SUP 1: 4167.50/4097.00 20-day EMA / Low Jan 19 and a key support
• SUP 2: 4062.40 Bull channel base drawn from the Oct 13 low
• SUP 3: 3890.00 Low Jan 4
• SUP 4: 3753.00 Low Dec 20 and the bear trigger

EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded higher Thursday last week to breach 4265.00, the Feb 3 high. Despite the pullback from last week’s best levels, the fresh cycle high confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 4303.20, the 2.382 projection of the Sep 29 - Oct 4 rise from the Dec 20 low. Note that the trend is overbought. A pullback would represent a healthy correction. Key support lies at 4097.00, the Jan 19 low. Initial support is at 4167.50, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P (H3): Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 4361.00 High Aug 16
• RES 3: 4300.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4250.00 High Aug 26, 2022
• RES 1: 4208.50 High Feb 2 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4147.00 @ 07:38 GMT Feb 14
• SUP 1: 4060.75 Low Feb 13
• SUP 2: 4006.63 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 3901.75 Low Jan 19
• SUP 4: 3788.50 Low Dec 22 and a key support

The S&P E-Minis trend condition is bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The contract has pierced initial support at 4069.52, the 20-day EMA. Firmer support lies at the 50-day EMA, at 4006.63. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper pullback and potentially highlight a reversal. Key resistance and the bull trigger intersect at 4208.50, the Feb 2 high. A breach would resume the uptrend.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (J3) Maintains A Firmer Tone

• RES 4: $92.64 - High Nov 14
• RES 3: $90.34 - 76.4% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 12 bear leg
• RES 2: $89.00 - High Jan 23 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $86.95 - High Feb 14
• PRICE: $86.20 @ 07:20 GMT Feb 14
• SUP 1: $83.05/79.10 - Low Feb 9 / 6
• SUP 2: $77.77 - Low Jan 5
• SUP 3: $75.89 - Low Dec 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $73.48 - 1.00 proj of the Nov 7 - Dec 12 - Jan 23 price swing

Brent futures hold the bulk of the Friday gains, extending the bounce from $79.10, Feb 6 low. Price has moved further away from the 50-day EMA, breached early last week. Markets have exposed the bull trigger at 89.00, having shown above the 86.66 level, marking the 76.4% of the Jan 23 - Feb 6 bear leg. On the downside, a move below $79.10, Feb 6 low, is required to reinstate a bearish theme. Initial support is $83.05, the Feb 9 low.

WTI TECHS: (H3) Recovery Extends

• RES 4: $87.00 - High Nov 14
• RES 3: $85.33 - 76.4% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 9 bear leg
• RES 2: $83.14 - High Dec 1 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $80.62 - High Feb 13
• PRICE: $79.37 @ 07:26 GMT Feb 14
• SUP 1: $76.52 - Low Feb 9
• SUP 2: $72.25 - Low Feb 6
• SUP 3: $70.56 - Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $70.00 - Psychological round number

WTI futures showed above the Friday high ahead of the Monday close, marking an extension of the recovery from $72.25, the Feb 6 low. The rally has confirmed a break of the 50-day EMA, at $78.34, strengthening the current bull cycle and note that price has pierced $80.22, 76.4% of the Jan 18 - Feb 6 bear leg. A clear break of this level would expose the key resistance at $82.66, the Jan 18 high. On the downside, initial firm support has been defined at $76.52, the Feb 9 low.

GOLD TECHS: Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $1998.4 - High Apr 18, 2022
• RES 3: $1982.0 - High Apr 19, 2022
• RES 2: $1963.0 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep 2022 bear leg
• RES 1: $1892.1/1959.7 - 20-day EMA / High Feb 2
• PRICE: $1859.1 @ 07:29 GMT Feb 14
• SUP 1: $1855.5/1850.5 - 50-day EMA / Low Feb 14
• SUP 2: $1825.2 - Low Jan 5 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: $1797.1 - Low Dec 28
• SUP 4: $1787.3 - 50.0% retracement of the Sep 28 - Feb 2 bull leg

Trend conditions in Gold are bearish for now, and the yellow metal remains in a corrective cycle. This follows the strong sell-off on Feb 2 / 3 and sights are on the 50-day EMA, at $1855.5. The average represents a key support and has been pierced. A clear break would strengthen a bearish case and suggest scope for a deeper pullback - towards $1825.2, the Jan 5 low. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger is at $1959.7, the Feb 2 high.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Price Action

• RES 4: $25.293 - High Apr 20
• RES 3: $24.729 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 2: $24.637 - High Feb 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $23.109 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $21.956 @ 07:34 GMT Feb 14
• SUP 1: $21.795 - Low Feb 13
• SUP 2: $21.099 - 50.0% retracement of the Sep 1 - Feb 2 bull leg
• SUP 3: $20.872 - Low Nov 28
• SUP 4: $20.585 - Low Nov 21

A sharp sell-off in Silver on Feb 3 resulted in a break of $22.557, the Dec 16 low. Price has also traded below the 50-day EMA - a bearish development. The move lower highlights a range breakout and if this is correct, it warns of a short-term trend reversal. A continuation lower would open $21.099, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at $23.109, the 20-day EMA ahead of $24.637, the Feb 2 high.