MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold Pullback Seen Corrective
Price Signal Summary – Gold Retracement Seen Corrective
- A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and last week’s gains reinforce this condition. Price has traded to fresh all-time highs, once again, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. Eurostoxx 50 futures are holding on to their most recent gains. Key short-term support to watch is 4938.44, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Recently, the contract breached resistance at 5024.00, the Sep 3 high.
- The short-term trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish and the pair is trading just ahead of its recent lows. Price action remains below the 20-day EMA and attention is on the next important support at 1.3002, the Sep 11 low. USDJPY bulls remain in the driver’s seat and price is trading at recent highs. Recent gains resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA, a bullish development that undermines a recent bearish theme and highlights a stronger reversal. AUDUSD is in consolidation mode. A bearish theme remains intact and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. Price has recently traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A clear break of the 50-day average, at 0.6750, would undermine a bullish theme.
- The recent short-term retracement in Gold is considered corrective. The trend condition is unchanged and bulls remain in the driver’s seat. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up too, highlighting a clear uptrend and positive market sentiment. WTI futures traded remain in a bull cycle and short-term weakness is - for now - considered corrective. Recent gains suggest potential for a continuation higher near-term. Attention is on $77.40, the 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg.
- A bearish theme in Bund futures remains intact and price continues to trade below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Attention is on the next key support at 132.65, the Sep 2 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme and highlight a stronger reversal. A bear threat in Gilt futures remains present and the recent impulsive sell-off reinforces a bearish theme. The contract has traded through support at 98.11, the Sep 2 low and a bear trigger. The break strengthens the downtrend, signalling scope for a deeper retracement.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 1.1144 High Oct 1
- RES 3: 1.1083 High Oct 2
- RES 2: 1.1033 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.0981 High Oct 9
- PRICE: 1.0924 @ 05:39 BST Oct 14
- SUP 1: 1.0900 Low Oct 10
- SUP 2: 1.0881 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - Sep 25 bull leg
- SUP 3: 1.0778 Low Aug 1 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.0736 Low Jul 3
EURUSD traded lower last week and remains in a bearish cycle. Support at 1.1002, the Sep 11 low, has been breached. This level marked the midpoint of a double top reversal pattern on the daily chart and highlights a stronger reversal. An extension lower would open 1.0881, a Fibonacci retracement and the next important support. Initial firm resistance is at 1.1033, the 20-day EMA.
GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Theme
- RES 4: 1.3434 High Sep 26 and key resistance
- RES 3: 1.3389 High Oct 1
- RES 2: 1.3305 High Oct 2 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.3170 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3060 @ 06:03 BST Oct 14
- SUP 1: 1.3022 Low Oct 10
- SUP 2: 1.3002 Low Sep 11 and a key support
- SUP 3: 1.2959 61.8% retracement of the Aug 8 - Sep 25 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.2890 Low Aug 18
The short-term trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish and the pair is trading just ahead of its recent lows. Price action remains below the 20-day EMA and attention is on the next important support at 1.3002, the Sep 11 low. A clear break of this level would expose 1.2959, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is 1.3170, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of this average would signal a reversal.
EURGBP TECHS: MA Studies Highlight A Downtrend
- RES 4: 0.8494 High Aug 26
- RES 3: 0.8464 High Sep 11 and key resistance
- RES 2: 0.8453 High Sep 18
- RES 1: 0.8434 High Oct 3
- PRICE: 0.8364 @ 06:30 BST Oct 14
- SUP 1: 0.8353/11 Low Oct 4 / 1 and a key short-term support
- SUP 2: 0.8276 3.382 projection of the Aug 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 ‘22
- SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
EURGBP is in consolidation mode. The Oct 3 rally highlights a possible reversal and note that the cross is trading close to the base of its 0.9300 - 0.8300 multi-year range and a key area of support. For now, MA studies are in a bear-mode position - this continues to highlight a dominant downtrend. Key support is at 0.8311, the Oct 1 low. Key resistance is 0.8464, the Sep 11 high and a reversal trigger. First resistance to watch is 0.8434, Oct 23 high.
USDJPY TECHS: Trading At Its Recent Highs
- RES 4: 153.40 61.8% retracement of the Jul 3 - Sep 16 bear leg
- RES 3: 151.94 Low Jul 25
- RES 2: 150.76 50.0% retracement of the Jul 3 - Sep 16 bear leg
- RES 1: 149.55 High Oct 10
- PRICE: 149.25 @ 06:34 BST Oct 14
- SUP 1: 146.23 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 143.43/141.65 Low Oct 2 / Low Sep 30
- SUP 3: 140.45 Low Sep 18
- SUP 4: 139.58 Low Sep 16 and the bear trigger
USDJPY bulls remain in the driver’s seat and price is trading at recent highs. Recent gains resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA, a bullish development that undermines a recent bearish theme and highlights a stronger reversal. Sights are on 150.76, the 50% retracement for the Jul 3 - Sep 16 bear leg. Initial firm support is 146.23, the 20-day EMA. Clearance of this level would signal a reversal.
EURJPY TECHS: Key Resistance Intact For Now
- RES 4: 166.53 High Jul 31
- RES 3: 165.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 163.89 High Aug 15 and a reversal trigger
- RES 1: 163.61 High Oct 10
- PRICE: 163.03 @ 06:42 BST Oct 14
- SUP 1: 161.33 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 158.11/155.15 Low Sep 30 / Low Sep 16
- SUP 3: 154.42 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
EURJPY is in consolidation mode and holding on to its recent gains. Key short-term resistance is unchanged at 163.49, the Sep 27 high (pierced), and 163.89, the Aug 15 high. Clearance of both levels is required to highlight a potential reversal. For now, trend signals are bearish and gains are still considered corrective. A reversal lower and a resumption of bearish price action would open 154.42, Aug 5 low and the bear trigger.
AUDUSD TECHS: Pierces The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 0.6984 0.764 proj of the Aug 5 - 29 - Sep 11 price swing
- RES 3: 0.6942 High Sep 30 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 0.6852/6889 High Oct 4 / 3
- RES 1: 0.6786 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6737 @ 07:54 BST Oct 14
- SUP 1: 0.6702 Low Oct 10
- SUP 2: 0.6646 38.2% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg
- SUP 3: 0.6622 Low Sep 11 and key support
- SUP 4: 0.6576 61.8% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg
AUDUSD is in consolidation mode. A bearish theme remains intact and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. Price has recently traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A clear break of the 50-day average, at 0.6750, would undermine a bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement, towards 0.6622, the Sep 11 low and a key support. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 0.6942, the Sep 30 high.
USDCAD TECHS: Winning Streak Extends
- RES 4: 1.3946 High Aug 5 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 1.3885 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 1.3822 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 25 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.3789 Intraday high
- PRICE: 1.3780 @ 08:02 BST Oct 14
- SUP 1: 1.3696/3605 Low Oct 10 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3473/3420 Low Oct 2 / Low Sep 25 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3413 Low Feb 9
- SUP 4: 1.3358 76.4% retracement of the Dec 27 ‘23 - Aug 5 bull run
USDCAD continues to extend its winning streak of higher highs and higher lows and has traded to a fresh cycle high today. Short-term gains confirm an extension of the bull cycle that started Sep 25. Sights are on 1.3822 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. A break of this level would reinforce a bullish theme. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3605, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective and allow an overbought condition to unwind.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (Z4) Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 137.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 136.20 High Oct 1 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 135.24 High Oct 3
- RES 1: 133.87/134.09 50- and 20-day EMA values
- PRICE: 133.21 @ 05:09 BST Oct 14
- SUP 1: 132.75 Low Oct 10
- SUP 2 132.65 Low Sep 2 and a key support:
- SUP 3: 132.25 Low Jul 29
- SUP 4: 131.66 Low Jul 26
A bearish theme in Bund futures remains intact and price continues to trade below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Attention is on the next key support at 132.65, the Sep 2 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme and highlight a stronger reversal. Initial firm resistance is at 134.09, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal a possible reversal.
BOBL TECHS: (Z4) Trading Closer To Its Recent Lows
- RES 4: 120.650 High Oct 1 and key resistance
- RES 3: 120.190 High Oct 3
- RES 2: 119.870 High Oct 4
- RES 1: 119.260/119.461 High Oct 9 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 119.000 @ 05:29 BST Oct 14
- SUP 1: 118.620 Low Oct 10
- SUP 2: 118.580 Low Sep 3 and a key support
- SUP 3: 118.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 117.789 123.6% retrace projection of the Sep 3 - Oct 1 bull leg
Bobl futures are trading closer to their recent lows. The reversal from the Oct 1 high, undermines a recent bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement. The contract has traded through a number of short-term retracement points and has recently breached the 20-day EMA. A continuation lower would open 118.580, the Sep 3 low. Initial resistance is 119.461, the 20-day EMA.
SCHATZ TECHS: (Z4) Maintains A Softer Tone
- RES 4: 107.450 1.00 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 18 price swing
- RES 3: 107.225/335 High Oct 3 / 1 and key resistance
- RES 2: 107.110 High Oct 7
- RES 1: 106.910 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 106.770 @ 06:00 BST Oct 14
- SUP 1: 106.580 Low Oct 10
- SUP 2: 106.520 Low Sep 3 and a key support
- SUP 3: 106.328 123.6% retracement proj of Sep 3 - Oct 1 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 106.209 138.2% retracement proj of Sep 3 - Oct 1 bull cycle
A short-term bearish threat remains intact in Schatz futures following the extended reversal from the Oct 1 high. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA and breached not only 106.815, the Sep 18 low, but also 106.712, the 76.4% retracement of the Sep 3 - Oct 1 bull cycle. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is 106.910, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of it would signal a possible reversal.
GILT TECHS: (Z4) Bear Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 99.47 High Oct and key short-term resistance
- RES 3: 98.53 High Oct 3
- RES 2: 98.11 Low Sep 2
- RES 1: 96.93/97.94 High Oct 7 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 96.27 @ Close Oct 11
- SUP 1: 95.83 Low Oct 10
- SUP 2: 95.47 1.236 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
- SUP 3: 95.35 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 4: 94.99 1.382 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
A bear threat in Gilt futures remains present and the recent impulsive sell-off reinforces a bearish theme. The contract has traded through support at 98.11, the Sep 2 low and a bear trigger. The break strengthens the downtrend, signalling scope for a deeper retracement. The 96.00 handle has now given way, exposing the 2.0% 10-dma envelope line at 95.35. Initial firm resistance is seen at 98.11, the Sep 2 low.
BTP TECHS: (Z4) Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 123.40 3.500 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 3: 123.12 3.382 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 2: 122.78 3.236 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 1: 121.39/122.62 High Oct 4 / 1 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 120.38 @ Close Oct 11
- SUP 1: 119.97 Low Oct 11
- SUP 2: 119.58 38.2% retracement of the Jun 11 - Oct 1 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 118.64 50.0% retracement of the Jun 11 - Oct 1 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 117.34 Low Jul 26
The medium-term trend condition in BTP futures is bullish. However, a short-term bearish threat exists for now, following the reversal from the Oct 1 high. This move down highlights a corrective cycle. The contract has breached the 20-day EMA and pierced support at 120.17, the Sep 19 low and a key support. A clear break of this support would expose 119.58, a Fibonacci retracement. The bull trigger is 122.62, the Oct 1 high.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z4) Support Remains Intact
- RES 4: 5256.00 1.00 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 5200.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 5138.24 0.764 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 5048.00/5106.00 High Oct 1 / High Sep 30 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 5025.00 @ 06:23 BST Oct 14
- SUP 1: 4938.44 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 4848.00/4757.00 Low Sep 13 / Low Sep 6 and 10
- SUP 3: 4813.00 Low Sep 12
- SUP 4: 4757.00 Low Sep 6 / 10 and key support
Eurostoxx 50 futures are holding on to their most recent gains. Key short-term support to watch is 4938.44, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Recently, the contract breached resistance at 5024.00, the Sep 3 high. This confirmed a resumption of the bull leg that started Aug 5 and cancels a recent bearish theme. Key resistance and bull trigger is 5106.00, the Sep 30 high.
E-MINI S&P: (Z4) Northbound
- RES 4: 6000.00 Psychological handle
- RES 3: 5961.00 1.00 proj of the Sep 6 - 17 - 18
- RES 2: 5900.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 5868.50 1.00 proj of the Apr 19 - Jul 16 - Aug 5 price swing
- PRICE: 5857.50 @ 07:03 BST Oct 14
- SUP 1: 5768.92/5724.00 20-day EMA / Low Oct 2
- SUP 2: 5693.38 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 5675.25 Low Sep 18
- SUP 4: 5658.00 Low Sep 13
A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and last week’s gains reinforce this condition. Price has traded to fresh all-time highs, once again, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode setup, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Sights are on 5868.50, a Fibonacci projection, and 5900.00 further out. Initial support to watch is 5768.92, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced. Key support lies at 5693.38 the 50-day EMA.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (Z4) Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: $86.86 - High Apr 12 and a key resistance
- RES 3: $85.54 - High Jul 5
- RES 2: $83.02 - High Jul 18
- RES 1: $81.47 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- PRICE: $78.00 @ 07:08 BST Oct 14
- SUP 1: $75.81 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $69.91/68.29 - Low Oct 1 / 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $67.73 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $66.12 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
The bull leg that started Sep 9 in Brent futures remains intact and short-term pullbacks are for now, considered corrective. A resumption of gains would open $81.47, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish theme and expose $83.02, the Jul 18 high. Initial firm support is $75.81, the 20-day EMA. A clear break would be seen as an early reversal signal.
WTI TECHS: (X4) Still Looking For Gains
- RES 4: $82.59 - High Apr 12 and a key resistance
- RES 3: $81.75 - High Jul 5
- RES 2: $79.69 - High Jul 18
- RES 1: $78.46 - High Oct 8
- PRICE: $74.51 @ 07:18 BST Oct 14
- SUP 1: $72.33 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $66.33/64.61 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $63.89 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number
WTI futures traded remain in a bull cycle and short-term weakness is - for now - considered corrective. Recent gains suggest potential for a continuation higher near-term. Attention is on $77.40, the 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg. This level has been pierced, a clear break of it would strengthen a bullish condition. On the downside, initial firm support to watch is $72.33, the 20-day EMA.
GOLD TECHS: Bullish Trend Sequence
- RES 4: $2708.4 - 2.764 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 3: $2720.5 - 3.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: $2690.2 - 2.618 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 1: $2685.6 - High Sep 26 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $2663.7 @ 07:24 BST Oct 14
- SUP 1: $2620.2/2604.9 - 20-day EMA / Low Oct 8
- SUP 2: $2584.9 - Low Sep 20
- SUP 3: $2557.0 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: $2531.8 - High Aug 20
The recent short-term retracement in Gold is considered corrective. The trend condition is unchanged and bulls remain in the driver’s seat. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up too, highlighting a clear uptrend and positive market sentiment. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on $2690.2, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support lies at $2620.2, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break would signal scope for a deeper retracement.
SILVER TECHS: Trend Set-Up Still Bullish
- RES 4: $33.738 - 1.618 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 3: $33.297 - 1.50 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 2: $33.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $31.780/32.963 - High Oct 8 / 4 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $31.506 @ 08:06 BST Oct 14
- SUP 1: $30.258 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: $29.153 - Trendline support drawn from the Aug 8 low
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 and a key support
- SUP 4: $27.180 - Low Aug 14
Bullish conditions in Silver remain intact and recent short-term weakness is considered corrective. Last week’s move down resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA. Attention turns to support at the 50-day EMA, at $30.258. A clear break of this EMA would undermine a bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. On the upside, a reversal higher would signal the end of the correction and refocus attention on $32.963, the Oct 4 high.