MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold Rally Extends
Price Signal Summary - Gold Rally Extends
- S&P E-Minis trend conditions are unchanged and bulls remain in the driver’s seat. Recent gains confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Eurostoxx 50 futures traded sharply lower Tuesday. The contract has pierced support around the 50-day EMA, at 4944.90. A clear break of this average would undermine a recent bullish theme and highlight a stronger reversal.
- GBPUSD maintains a bearish tone following Wednesday’s move lower that confirmed a resumption of the current bear cycle. Note that an important support at 1.3002, the Sep 11 low, has been breached. USDJPY maintains a firmer tone and continues to trade at its recent highs. Price remains above the 50-day EMA. The recent break of this average marks a bullish development that highlights a stronger reversal. The USDCAD trend outlook remains bullish and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. The pair has recently pierced 1.3822, 76.4% of the Aug 5 - Sep 25 bear leg. A clear break of this level would reinforce a bullish theme and open 1.3946, the Aug 5 high.
- Gold is trading higher today. Thursday’s gains resulted in a break of $2685.6, the Sep 26 high, confirming a resumption of the primary bull trend. The yellow metal has also cleared $2700.0, reinforcing current trend conditions. This maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.WTI futures gapped lower Tuesday and this resulted in a break of the Oct 9 low. A bearish extension would threaten the recent bullish theme and expose support at $66.33, the Oct 1 low, and $64.61, the Sep 10 low and a key support.
- Bearish theme in Bund futures remains intact and this week’s gains are for now, considered corrective. However, the contract has breached the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A continuation higher would be a bullish development and highlight a possible reversal. A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains present and the latest recovery is considered corrective - for now. Note that short-term gains are allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. The contract remains below resistance at 98.11, the Sep 2 low.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Bear Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 1.1144 High Oct 1
- RES 3: 1.1083 High Oct 2
- RES 2: 1.0979 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.0917 High Oct 15
- PRICE: 1.0841 @ 06:11 BST Oct 18
- SUP 1: 1.0811/0778 Low Oct 17 / Low Aug 1 and a key support
- SUP 2: 1.0746 76.4% retracement of the Apr - Sep bull leg
- SUP 3: 1.0710 Low Jul 2
- SUP 4: 1.0666 Low Jun 26
EURUSD is trading just above this week’s lows and a bear cycle remains in play. Moving average studies have shifted to a bear-mode position and this reinforces the current downward trend condition. A recent double top reversal pattern also highlights a reversal. Sights are on 1.0778, the Aug 1 low and the next key support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. Initial firm resistance is at 1.0979 the 20-day EMA.
GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Condition Intact
- RES 4: 1.3434 High Sep 26 and key resistance
- RES 3: 1.3389 High Oct 1
- RES 2: 1.3274 High Oct 3 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.3077/3124 High Oct 16 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3024 @ 06:35 BST Oct 18
- SUP 1: 1.2974 Low Oct 17
- SUP 2: 1.2959 61.8% retracement of the Aug 8 - Sep 25 bull leg
- SUP 3: 1.2890 Low Aug 18
- SUP 4: 1.2846 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Sep 25 bull leg
GBPUSD maintains a bearish tone following Wednesday’s move lower that confirmed a resumption of the current bear cycle. Note that an important support at 1.3002, the Sep 11 low, has been breached. This also reinforces the bear theme and opens 1.2959, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is 1.3124, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of this average is required to signal a reversal.
EURGBP TECHS: Resumes Its Downtrend
- RES 4: 0.8494 High Aug 26
- RES 3: 0.8464 High Sep 11 and key resistance
- RES 2: 0.8453 High Sep 18
- RES 1: 0.8366/8434 20-day EMA / High Oct 3
- PRICE: 0.8303 @ 07:40 BST Oct 18
- SUP 1: 0.8295 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 0.8276 3.382 projection of the Aug 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 ‘22
- SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
EURGBP is trading lower today. The cross has breached a key support at 0.8311, Oct 1 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and paves the way for a move towards 0.8276, a Fibonacci projection. MA studies are in a bear-mode position - highlighting a downtrend. Note that the cross is trading close to the base of its 0.9300 - 0.8300 multi-year range and a key area of support. Key resistance to watch is 0.8434, the Oct 23 high.
USDJPY TECHS: Bulls Remain IN The Driver's Seat
- RES 4: 153.40 61.8% retracement of the Jul 3 - Sep 16 bear leg
- RES 3: 151.94 Low Jul 25
- RES 2: 150.76 50.0% retracement of the Jul 3 - Sep 16 bear leg
- RES 1: 150.08 High Oct 17
- PRICE: 149.85 @ 07:15 BST Oct 18
- SUP 1: 148.30/147.38 Low Oct 8 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 145.92 Low Oct 4
- SUP 3: 143.43/141.65 Low Oct 2 / Low Sep 30
- SUP 4: 140.45 Low Sep 18
USDJPY maintains a firmer tone and continues to trade at its recent highs. Price remains above the 50-day EMA. The recent break of this average marks a bullish development that highlights a stronger reversal. Sights are on 150.76, the 50% retracement of the Jul 3 - Sep 16 bear leg. Initial firm support to watch is 147.38, the 20-day EMA. Clearance of this level would signal a reversal.
EURJPY TECHS: Resistance Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 166.53 High Jul 31
- RES 3: 165.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 163.89 High Aug 15 and a reversal trigger
- RES 1: 163.61 High Oct 10
- PRICE: 162.56 @ 07:26 BST Oct 18
- SUP 1: 161.80 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 158.11/155.15 Low Sep 30 / Low Sep 16
- SUP 3: 154.42 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
EURJPY continues to trade inside its recent tight range and the cross remains closer to its latest highs. A medium-term bearish trend condition is intact and a reversal lower would open 158.11, the Sep 30 low, and the first important support. Note that the cross is trading close to key resistance points - 163.49, the Sep 27 high (pierced) and 163.89, the Aug 15 high. Clearance of both levels would highlight a potential reversal.
AUDUSD TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 0.6984 0.764 proj of the Aug 5 - 29 - Sep 11 price swing
- RES 3: 0.6942 High Sep 30 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 0.6852/6889 High Oct 4 / 3
- RES 1: 0.6757 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6711 @ 07:57 BST Oct 18
- SUP 1: 0.6658 Low Oct 16
- SUP 2: 0.6646 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg
- SUP 3: 0.6622 Low Sep 11 and key support
- SUP 4: 0.6576 61.8% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg
A downtrend in AUDUSD remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. Price has recently traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This undermines a recent bullish theme and exposes 0.6622, the Sep 11 low and a key support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme and open 0.6576, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance has been defined at 0.6942, the Sep 30 high. Initial resistance is 0.6757, the 20-day EMA.
USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: 1.4000 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.3992 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 1.3946 High Aug 5 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 1.3839 High Oct 15
- PRICE: 1.3798 @ 08:07 BST Oct 18
- SUP 1: 1.3725/3662 Low Oct 11 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3567 Low Oct 7
- SUP 3: 1.3473/3420 Low Oct 2 / Low Sep 25 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 1.3413 Low Feb 9
The USDCAD trend outlook remains bullish and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. The pair has recently pierced 1.3822, 76.4% of the Aug 5 - Sep 25 bear leg. A clear break of this level would reinforce a bullish theme and open 1.3946, the Aug 5 high. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3662, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective and allow an overbought condition to unwind.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (Z4) Holding On To Its Latest Gains
- RES 4: 135.24 High Oct 3
- RES 3: 134.88 61.8% retracement of the Oct 1 - 10 bear leg
- RES 2: 134.48 50.0% retracement of the Oct 1 - 10 bear leg
- RES 1: 134.25 High Oct 16
- PRICE: 133.94 @ 05:44 BST Oct 18
- SUP 1: 133.30/132.75 Low Oct 15 / 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2 132.65 Low Sep 2 and a key support:
- SUP 3: 132.25 Low Jul 29
- SUP 4: 131.66 Low Jul 26
A bearish theme in Bund futures remains intact and this week’s gains are for now, considered corrective. However, the contract has breached the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A continuation higher would be a bullish development and highlight a possible reversal, signalling scope for an extension. This would open 134.48, a Fibonacci retracement. 132.75, the Oct 10 low, marks key support and bear trigger. A break would resume a bearish theme.
BOBL TECHS: (Z4) Trading Above Its Recent Lows
- RES 4: 120.190 High Oct 3
- RES 3: 119.875 61.8% retracement of the Oct 1 - 10 bear leg
- RES 2: 119.635 50.0% retracement of the Oct 1 - 10 bear leg
- RES 1: 119.540 High Oct 17
- PRICE: 119.440 @ 05:47 BST Oct 18
- SUP 1: 119.010/118.620 Low Oct 15 / 10
- SUP 2: 118.580 Low Sep 3 and a key support
- SUP 3: 118.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 117.789 123.6% retrace projection of the Sep 3 - Oct 1 bull leg
A bear cycle in Bobl futures remains intact and recent gains are considered corrective - for now. Note that the cross has traded through its 20-day EMA. An extension of the rally would signal scope for a climb towards 119.635, a Fibonacci retracement point. For bears, a reversal lower would refocus attention on 118.620, the Oct 10 low and a bear trigger. A breach of this level would resume the recent bear trend.
SCHATZ TECHS: (Z4) Trading Above Its 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: 107.157 76.4% retracement of the Oct 1 / 10 bear leg
- RES 3: 107.110 High Oct 4
- RES 2: 107.047 61.8% retracement of the Oct 1 / 10 bear leg
- RES 1: 106.980 Intraday high
- PRICE: 106.965 @ 06:02 BST Oct 18
- SUP 1: 106.745/580 Low Oct 15 / 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 106.520 Low Sep 3 and a key support
- SUP 3: 106.328 123.6% retracement proj of Sep 3 - Oct 1 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 106.209 138.2% retracement proj of Sep 3 - Oct 1 bull cycle
A short-term bearish threat in Schatz futures remains intact following the reversal from the Oct 1 high. The latest recovery appears - for now - to be a correction. Note that the contract is trading above its 20-day EMA, at 106.889. A continuation of the move higher would open 107.047 next, a Fibonacci retracement. For bears, a resumption of bearish price action would refocus attention on 106.580, the Oct 10 low and bear trigger.
GILT TECHS: (Z4) Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: 100.19 76.4% retracement of the Sep 17 - Oct 10 bear leg
- RES 3: 99.47 High Oct and key short-term resistance
- RES 2: 98.68 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Oct 10 bear leg
- RES 1: 98.11 Low Sep 2 and a key near-term resistance
- PRICE: 97.49 @ Close Oct 17
- SUP 1: 96.97/95.83 High Oct 15 and gap low / Low Oct 10
- SUP 2: 95.47 1.236 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
- SUP 3: 94.90 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 4: 94.99 1.382 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains present and the latest recovery is considered corrective - for now. Note that short-term gains are allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. The contract remains below resistance at 98.11, the Sep 2 low. A continuation higher and a break of 98.11 would open 98.68, a Fibonacci retracement. For bears, a reversal would refocus attention on key support at 95.83, Oct 10 low. A break of it resumes a bearish theme.
BTP TECHS: (Z4) Key Resistance Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 123.40 3.500 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 3: 123.12 3.382 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 2: 122.78 3.236 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 1: 122.62 High Oct 1 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 121.89 @ Close Oct 17
- SUP 1: 120.95/119.97 20-day EMA / Low Oct 11 and key support
- SUP 2: 119.58 38.2% retracement of the Jun 11 - Oct 1 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 118.64 50.0% retracement of the Jun 11 - Oct 1 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 117.34 Low Jul 26
The medium-term trend condition in BTP futures is bullish. This week’s rally marks an extension of the recent bounce from the Oct 11 low. It also signals the end of the latest corrective pullback. A continuation higher would expose key resistance at 122.62, the Oct 1 high, where a break would resume the uptrend. Key short-term support has been defined at 119.97, the Oct 11 low. Clearance of this level would instead resume the recent bear leg.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z4) Monitoring Support At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 5256.00 1.00 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 5200.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 5138.24 0.764 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 5106.00 High Sep 30 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 4961.00 @ 06:38 BST Oct 18
- SUP 1: 4914.00 Low Oct 16
- SUP 2: 4884.06 38.2% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 4815.50 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 4757.00 Low Sep 6 / 10 and key support
Eurostoxx 50 futures traded sharply lower Tuesday. The contract has pierced support around the 50-day EMA, at 4944.90. A clear break of this average would undermine a recent bullish theme and highlight a stronger reversal. This would open 4884.06, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger is unchanged at 5106.00, the Sep 30 high. A break of this level would resume the uptrend.
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (Z4) Northbound
- RES 4: 6012.75 1.00 projection of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 6000.00 Psychological handle
- RES 2: 5961.00 1.00 projection of the Sep 6 - 17 - 18
- RES 1: 5927.25 High Oct 17
- PRICE: 5889.25 @ 07:22 BST Oct 18
- SUP 1:5807.48/5724.00 20-day EMA / Low Oct 2
- SUP 2: 5722.04 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 5675.25 Low Sep 18
- SUP 4: 5658.00 Low Sep 13
S&P E-Minis trend conditions are unchanged and bulls remain in the driver’s seat. Recent gains confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode setup, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 5961.00, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch is 5807.48, the 20-day EMA.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (Z4) Bearish Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: $86.86 - High Apr 12 and a key resistance
- RES 3: $85.54 - High Jul 5
- RES 2: $83.02 - High Jul 18
- RES 1: $81.16/47 - High Oct 7 / 76.4% of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- PRICE: $74.79 @ 07:11 BST Oct 18
- SUP 1: $73.26 - Low Oct 17
- SUP 2: $69.91/68.29 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $67.73 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $66.12 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
Brent futures gapped lower Tuesday and are trading closer to their latest lows. A bearish extension would threaten the recent bullish theme and expose support at $69.91, the Oct 1 low, and $68.29, the Sep 10 low and a key support. For bulls, a resumption of gains would instead refocus attention on the key resistance at $81.16, the Oct 7 high. Clearance of this level resumes the recent uptrend.
WTI TECHS: (X4) Bear Reversal Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: $82.59 - High Apr 12 and a key resistance
- RES 3: $81.75 - High Jul 5
- RES 2: $79.69 - High Jul 18
- RES 1: $76.24/78.46 - High Oct 10 / 8 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $71.13 @ 07:18 BST Oct 18
- SUP 1: $69.44 - Low Oct 17
- SUP 2: $66.33/64.61 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $63.89 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number
WTI futures gapped lower Tuesday and this resulted in a break of the Oct 9 low. A bearish extension would threaten the recent bullish theme and expose support at $66.33, the Oct 1 low, and $64.61, the Sep 10 low and a key support. For bulls, a resumption of gains would instead refocus attention on the key short-term resistance at $78.46, the Oct 8 high. Clearance of this level would resume to the recent uptrend.
GOLD TECHS: Trades Through $2700.0
- RES 4: $2767.1 - 3.236 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 3: $2737.8 - 3.00 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 2: $2728.5 - 3.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 1: $2714.1 - Intraday high
- PRICE: $2709.3 @ 07:06 BST Oct 18
- SUP 1: $2637.0/2604.9 - 20-day EMA / Low Oct 8
- SUP 2: $2584.9 - Low Sep 20
- SUP 3: $2573.7 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: $2531.8 - High Aug 20
Gold is trading higher today. Thursday’s gains resulted in a break of $2685.6, the Sep 26 high, confirming a resumption of the primary bull trend. The yellow metal has also cleared $2700.0, reinforcing current trend conditions. This maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on $2737.8, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support is $2637.0, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of the EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement.
SILVER TECHS: Support Remains Intact
- RES 4: $33.738 - 1.618 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 3: $33.297 - 1.50 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 2: $33.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $32.963 - High Oct 4 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $32.001 @ 08:13 BST Oct 18
- SUP 1: $30.446 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: $29.447 - Trendline support drawn from the Aug 8 low
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 and a key support
- SUP 4: $27.180 - Low Aug 14
Bullish conditions in Silver remain intact and recent short-term weakness between Oct 4 - 8, is considered corrective. Support to watch is at the 50-day EMA, at $30.446. A clear break of this average would undermine a bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. On the upside, a stronger reversal higher would signal the end of the correction and refocus attention on $32.963, the Oct 4 high.