MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold Rally Switches Focus to Resistance

Price Signal Summary – Gold Rally Switches Focus to Resistance

• S&P E-Minis have recovered from last week’s low of 3704.25 (Nov 3). A breach of this level would expose the key short-term support at 3641.50, the Oct 21 low, where a break would signal scope for a continuation lower. A bullish EUROSTOXX 50 futures outlook remains intact and the contract traded higher once again yesterday. The break to a fresh short-term trend high confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started Oct 3.
• EURUSD maintains a firmer tone following Friday’s rally. The pair has tested resistance at 1.0094, the Oct 27 high and a bull trigger. A break of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish case and again highlight the bullish significance of the recent bear channel breakout. The short-term outlook in EURGBP remains bullish, following last week’s gains and the recovery from 0.8560, the Oct 31 low. The cross has pierced a key short-term resistance at the Oct 21 high of 0.8781. EURJPY is unchanged. The cross found support on Nov 3 at 144.04. This leaves key support at 143.80, the Oct 24 low, intact. A break of this support is required to suggest scope for a deeper retracement and open 141.78, the Oct 13 low.
• Gold found support Tuesday and rallied sharply higher. This confirms an extension of the rally from $1616.7, the Nov 3 low. The yellow metal is trading above both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and attention turns to resistance at $1729.5. Key support is unchanged at $1615.0, Sep 28 low. The latest pullback in WTI futures is considered corrective - for now. The outlook is bullish and the contract has recently pierced resistance at $92.34, the Oct 12 high. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish theme and signal scope for a climb towards resistance at $95.55.
• Bund futures maintain a bearish tone following last week’s move lower and despite yesterday’s gains. The recent break of 137.57, Oct 27 low, signals scope for a deeper retracement near-term. Gilt futures remain in a short-term uptrend and yesterday’s gains are a positive development. The latest shallow retracement still appears to be a bull flag formation, reinforcing the uptrend.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Testing Key Resistance

• RES 4: 1.0327 1.50 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 1.0273 1.382 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 1.0198 High Sep 12 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.0094/96 High Oct 27 and a bull trigger / High Nov 8
• PRICE: 1.0069 @ 05:38 GMT Nov 09
• SUP 1: 0.9923/9730 50-day EMA / Low Nov 3
• SUP 2: 0.9705 Low Oct 21
• SUP 3: 0.9633 Low Oct 13 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.9536 Low Sep 28 and the bear trigger

EURUSD maintains a firmer tone following Friday’s rally. The pair has tested resistance at 1.0094, the Oct 27 high and a bull trigger. A break of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish case and again highlight the bullish significance of the recent bear channel breakout. The channel resistance, drawn from the Feb 10 high, was breached on Oct 25. A continuation higher would open 1.0198, the Sep 12 high. Initial support is at 0.9923, the 50-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Approaching Key Resistance

• RES 4: 1.1799 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Oct 5 - 12 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1738 High Sep 13
• RES 2: 1.1645 High Oct 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.1599 High Nov 8
• PRICE: 1.1542 @ 05:51 GMT Nov 9
• SUP 1: 1.1389/1150 20-day EMA / Low Nov 04
• SUP 2: 1.1061 Low Oct 21
• SUP 3: 1.0924 Low Oct 12 and a key short-term support
• SUP 4: 1.0763 Low Sep 29

GBPUSD is holding on to this week’s gains. A bullish theme remains intact following recent gains and price is once again trading above the 20- and 50-day EMAs - a positive development. Attention is on the key resistance and the bull trigger at 1.1645, the Oct 27 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish case and confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started Sep 26. Initial firm support is at 1.1150, the Nov 4 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 0.9066/9266 High Sep 28 / High Sep 26 and key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8980 High Sep 29
• RES 2: 0.8867 High Nov 12
• RES 1: 0.8791 High Nov 07
• PRICE: 0.8725 @ 06:09 GMT Nov 9
• SUP 1: 0.8680 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8560/59 Low Oct 31 / 76.4% of Aug 2 - Sep 26 rally
• SUP 3: 0.8522 Low Aug 30
• SUP 4: 0.8471 Low Aug 28

The short-term outlook in EURGBP remains bullish, following last week’s gains and the recovery from 0.8560, the Oct 31 low. The cross has pierced a key short-term resistance at the Oct 21 high of 0.8781. A clear breach of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish theme and open 0.8867, the Oct 12 high. For bears, a reversal lower and a move through the Oct 31 low of 0.8585 would instead resume recent bearish activity.

USDJPY TECHS: Approaching The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 153.39 3.764 proj of the May 24 - Jul 14 - Aug 2 price swing
• RES 3: 152.30 High Jul 1990
• RES 2: 151.95 High Oct 21 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 147.08/149.71 20-day EMA / High Oct 24
• PRICE: 145.78 @ 06:25 GMT Nov 9
• SUP 1: 145.11 Low Oct 27
• SUP 2: 144.84 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 143.53 Low Oct 5
• SUP 4: 141.77 Low Sep 23

USDJPY traded lower Tuesday. Price remains inside its recent range, however, a bearish threat is still present and resistance is at 149.71, the Oct 24 high. Attention is on the 50-day EMA at 144.84. This average is a key support and clearance of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Note that momentum studies are still pointing down. For bulls, a break of 149.71 would be a positive development.

EURJPY TECHS: Sights Are On Key Resistance

• RES 4: 149.46 1.382 proj of the May 12 - Jun 28 - Aug 2 price swing
• RES 3: 148.88 High Dec 9 2014
• RES 2: 148.40/45 High Oct 21 and the bull trigger / High Dec 15 2014
• RES 1: 147.75 High Oct 31
• PRICE: 146.67 @ 06:41 GMT Nov 9
• SUP 1: 145.61 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 144.04/143.80 Low Nov 3 / Oct 24 and key support
• SUP 3: 143.68 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 141.78 Low Oct 13

EURJPY is unchanged. The cross found support on Nov 3 at 144.04. This leaves key support at 143.80, the Oct 24 low, intact. A break of this support is required to suggest scope for a deeper retracement and open 141.78, the Oct 13 low. A continuation higher would expose key resistance at 148.40, the Oct 21 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started Aug 2 and open 149.46, a Fibonacci retracement.

AUDUSD TECHS: Pierces Key Resistance Points

• RES 4: 0.6682 Low Jul 14 and a recent breakout level
• RES 3: 0.6656 High Sep 23
• RES 2: 0.6600 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 0.6551 High Nov 9
• PRICE: 0.6491 @ 06:57 GMT Nov 9
• SUP 1: 0.6412/6272 20-day EMA / Low Nov 3 and a key support
• SUP 2: 0.6210/6170 Low Oct 21 / 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6133 1.382 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6099 76.4% retracement of the 2020 - 2021 bull cycle

AUDUSD traded higher Tuesday and has pierced the 50-day EMA, at 0.6513. A clear breach of this EMA would confirm a break of resistance at 0.6522, and 0.6547, the Oct 27 and Oct 4 highs respectively. This would strengthen a bullish condition and extend the bull cycle that started mid-October and open 0.6600 and above. On the downside, a reversal lower and a break of 0.6272 low, Nov 3 low, would reinstate a bearish threat.

USDCAD TECHS: Clears Key Short-Term Support

• RES 4: 1.4016 3.382 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 7 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 1.4000 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 1.3855/3977 High Oct 21 / 13 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.3606/3808 20-day EMA / High Nov 03
• PRICE: 1.34424 @ 07:05 GMT Nov 9
• SUP 1: 1.3388 Low Nov 8
• SUP 2: 1.3352 50.0% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally
• SUP 3: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally
• SUP 4: 1.3139 Low Sep 14

USDCAD traded sharply lower yesterday and remains weak as price extends last Friday’s sell-off. Support at 1.3495, the 50-day EMA and 1.3496, the Oct 27 low, have been breached. A clear break of this price zone would strengthen a bearish threat and likely trigger an extension of the current bear cycle towards 1.3352 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at 1.3808, last Thursday’s high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z2) Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 142.87 High Oct 4 and a key reversal point
• RES 3: 141.74 High Oct 5
• RES 2: 140.23/92 50-day EMA / High Oct 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 137.82/139.24 20-day EMA / High Nov 2
• PRICE: 137.20 @ 05:04 GMT Nov 9
• SUP 1: 135.65 76.4% retracement of the Oct 21 - 28 bull phase
• SUP 2: 135.23 Low Oct 24
• SUP 3: 134.02 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 133.74 0.618 proj of the Aug 2 - 12 - 15 price swing

Bund futures maintain a bearish tone following last week’s move lower and despite yesterday’s gains. The recent break of 137.57, Oct 27 low, signals scope for a deeper retracement near-term. This has opened 135.65, a Fibonacci retracement ahead of the bear trigger at 134.02, the Oct 21 low. On the upside, initial resistance is at 137.82, the 20-day EMA. A break would be seen as a positive intraday development.

BOBL TECHS: (Z2) Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 122.510 High Sep 12
• RES 3: 121.950 High Oct 4 and a reversal trigger
• RES 2: 121.010/330 High Oct 28 and a bull trigger / High Oct 5
• RES 1: 119.330/120.401 20- and 50 day EMA values
• PRICE: 118.870 @ 05:07 GMT Nov 9
• SUP 1: 118.260 Low Nov 8
• SUP 2: 117.630 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 117.342 2.618 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 116.986 2.764 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing

Bobl futures traded lower yesterday before finding some support. A bearish theme remains intact. Last week's round of weakness resulted in a break of support at 119.090, Oct 27 low. This undermines the recent bullish theme and an extension lower would highlight the risk of a pullback towards key support and the bear trigger at 117.630, the Oct 21 low. On the upside, key resistance has been defined at 121.010, the Oct 28 high. Initial resistance is at 119.330.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z2) Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 107.770 High Oct 4 and the reversal trigger
• RES 3: 107.610 High Oct 5
• RES 2: 107.165/400 High Nov 1 / High Oct 28 and key resistance
• RES 1: 106.843 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 106.620 @ 05:28 GMT Nov 9
• SUP 1: 106.415 Low Nov 8
• SUP 2: 106.350 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 106.270 2.50 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.00 Round number support

The move lower last week in Schatz futures undermines a recent bull theme and this week’s extension lower reinforces a bearish threat. Short-term gains are considered corrective - for now. The contract has cleared initial support at 106.710, Oct 27 low. A continuation lower would highlight potential for a test of the key support and bear trigger at 106.350, the Oct 21 low. Key resistance is at 107.400, Oct 28 high. Initial resistance is at 106.843, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (Z2) Trend Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 106.84 High Sep 8
• RES 3: 106.25 High Sep 12
• RES 2: 105.34 High Sep 22 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 102.35/104.39 High Nov 4 / High Oct 27 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 101.71 @ Close Nov 8
• SUP 1: 99.92 Low Nov 8
• SUP 2: 98.15 Low Oct 24
• SUP 3: 95.82 Low Oct 21 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: 94.82/92.66 Low Oct 17 / 14

Gilt futures remain in a short-term uptrend and yesterday’s gains are a positive development. The latest shallow retracement still appears to be a bull flag formation, reinforcing the uptrend. Recent gains resulted in a break of key resistance at 100.92, the Oct 4 high. This strengthened bullish conditions and has opened 105.34 next, the Sep 23 high. Key support has been defined at 95.82, the Oct 21 low. A break of this level would be bearish.

BTP TECHS: (Z2) Trading Closer To Its Recent Lows

• RES 4: 120.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 119.06 High Sep 8 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 116.54/117.93 High Nov 1 / High Oct 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 114.73 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 114.14 @ Close Nov 8
• SUP 1: 112.45 Low Nov 8
• SUP 2: 112.07/110.14 Low Oct 25 / 14
• SUP 3: 108.82 Low Oct 21
• SUP 4: 108.13 Low Sep 28 and key support

BTP futures managed to find support yesterday, however, the contract continues to trade closer to its recent lows. A resumption of weakness would further undermine a recent bull theme and this would expose the next support at 112.07, the Oct 25 low. Key support lies at 108.82, Oct 21 low and 108.13, the Sep 28 trend low. On the upside, the contract needs to clear resistance at 117.93, high Oct 27, to resume recent bullish activity.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z2) Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 113-27+ High Sep 21
• RES 3: 113-30 High Oct 4 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 112-18 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 110-25/111-31 20-day EMA / High Oct 27
• PRICE: 110-01+ @ 15:07 GMT Nov 9
• SUP 1: 109-10+ Low Nov 04
• SUP 2: 108-26+ Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 108-06+ Low Oct 2007 (cont)
• SUP 4: 107.09 3.0% 10-dma envelope

Treasuries maintain a softer tone and continue to trade below 111-31, the Oct 27 high and a key short-term resistance. Clearance of this hurdle is required to signal scope for a stronger short-term rally. This would open the 50-day EMA at 112-18. The primary trend direction is down and recent weakness has exposed the key support and bear trigger at 108-26+, the Oct 21 low. A breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the trend.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z2) Continues To Climb

• RES 4: 3883.00 High Apr 21 (cont)
• RES 3: 3857.00 High Jun 6 (cont)
• RES 2: 3810.00 High Aug 17 and key pivot point
• RES 1: 3753.00 High Aug 19
• PRICE: 3721.00 @ 05:43 GMT Nov 9
• SUP 1: 3579.10/3526.10 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 3418.00 Low Oct 21
• SUP 3: 3352.00 Low Oct 14
• SUP 4: 3251.00/3236.00 Low Oct 13 / 3 and a key support zone

A bullish EUROSTOXX 50 futures outlook remains intact and the contract traded higher once again yesterday. The break to a fresh short-term trend high confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started Oct 3. This paves the way for continued gains above the 3700.00 level. The next key resistance is at 3810.00, the Aug 17 high. Firm support is seen at the 50-day EMA. The average intersects at 3534.30.

E-MINI S&P (Z2): Trading Above Last Week’s Low

• RES 4: 4100.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 4023.44 61.8% retracement of the Aug 16 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 2: 3981.25 High Sep 14
• RES 1: 3928.00 High Nov 1 and a bull trigger
• PRICE: 3828.25 @ 06:34 GMT Nov 9
• SUP 1: 3704.25/3641.50 Low Nov 3 / Low Oct 21
• SUP 2: 3590.50/3502.00 Low Oct 17 / 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 3491.13 50.0% retracement of the 2020 - 2022 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 3453.78 1.618 proj of the Aug 16 - Sep 7 - 13 price swing

S&P E-Minis have recovered from last week’s low of 3704.25 (Nov 3). A breach of this level would expose the key short-term support at 3641.50, the Oct 21 low, where a break would signal scope for a continuation lower. For bulls, a stronger reversal higher and more importantly a breach of 3928.00, the Nov 1 high, is required to confirm a resumption of the recent bull theme. This would open 3981.25, the Sep 14 high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F3) Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: $105.58 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 8 - Sep 26 bear leg
• RES 3: $102.28 - High Jul 5
• RES 2: $100.10 - High Jul 29
• RES 1: $99.56 - High Nov 7
• PRICE: $95.36 @ 07:02 GMT Nov 9
• SUP 1: $93.73/91.46 - 20-day EMA / Low Oct 31 and a key support
• SUP 2: $87.52 - Low Oct 18
• SUP 3: $83.38 - Low Sep 30
• SUP 4: $80.94 - Low Sep 26 and key support

A strong sell-off in Brent futures yesterday is considered corrective - for now. Recent gains highlight a bullish theme and price has recently cleared resistance at $96.75, the Oct 10 high and a key short-term hurdle. The break strengthens the current bullish theme and has paved the way for a climb towards $100.10, the Jul 27 high. On the downside, key short-term support to watch has been defined at $91.46, the Oct 31 low.

WTI TECHS: (Z2) Remains Above Support

• RES 4: $99.79 - High Jul 5
• RES 3: $97.38 - 61.8% retracement of the Jun 8 - Sep 26 downleg
• RES 2: $95.55 - High Aug 30
• RES 1: $93.74 - High Nov 7
• PRICE: $88.90 @ 07:13 GMT Nov 9
• SUP 1: $87.60 - Low Nov 3
• SUP 2: $85.30 - Low Oct 31 and a key support
• SUP 3: $81.30 - Low Oct 18 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: $78.36 - Low Sep 30

The latest pullback in WTI futures is considered corrective - for now. The outlook is bullish and the contract has recently pierced resistance at $92.34, the Oct 12 high. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish theme and signal scope for a climb towards resistance at $95.55. Moving average studies are beginning to display a bull mode set-up, reinforcing the current positive outlook. Support to watch, lies at $85.30, the Oct 31 low.

GOLD TECHS: Strong Rally Exposes Key Resistance

• RES 4: $1765.5 - High Aug 25
• RES 3: $1745.6 - High Aug 29
• RES 2: $1729.5 - High Oct 4 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $1716.9 - High Nov 8
• PRICE: $1712.0 @ 07:19 GMT Nov 9
• SUP 1: $1662.8 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1615.0 - Low Sep 28 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: $1610.5 - 1.00 proj of the Jun 13 - Jul 21 - Aug 10 swing
• SUP 4: $1600.00 - Round number support

Gold found support Tuesday and rallied sharply higher. This confirms an extension of the rally from $1616.7, the Nov 3 low. The yellow metal is trading above both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and attention turns to resistance at $1729.5, the Oct 4 high and a bull trigger. A break of this hurdle would strengthen bullish conditions. On the downside, support is at $1662.8, the 20-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Price Sequence

• RES 4: $22.517 - High Jun 6
• RES 3: $22.252 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 2: $22.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $21.626 - High Nov 8
• PRICE: $21.479 @ 08:05 GMT Nov 9
• SUP 1: $19.741 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $18.835/17.967 - Low Nov 3 / Low Sep 28
• SUP 3: $17.562 - Low Sep 1 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: $16.955 - Low Jun 15 2020

Silver rallied sharply higher Friday and has continued to appreciate this week. The metal has breached resistance at $21.242, the Oct 4 high. The break of this hurdle strengthens short-term bullish conditions and highlights a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart. This opens $22.00 and $22.253, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support is seen at $19.741, the 20-day EMA.