MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold Remains Bullish Despite Reversal Off Monday High

Price Signal Summary – Gold Remains Bullish Despite Reversal Off Monday High

• A bullish theme in S&P e-minis remains intact and last Friday’s push higher was a positive development. The contract is trading closer to its recent highs and so far, corrections have been shallow - a bullish signal. Note too that MA studies are in a bull-mode position. A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the contract is trading higher this week. Last week, resistance at 4387.00, Nov 24 high, was breached. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• The trend direction in GBPUSD remains up and this week’s move lower is considered corrective. Recent gains maintain the current positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. USDJPY maintains a softer tone. The pair traded lower last week and breached 147.15, the Nov 21 low. The move down highlights a resumption of the bear cycle that started Nov 13. Attention is on a key support at 147.05, a trendline drawn from the Mar 24 low. The uptrend in AUDUSD remains intact and the pullback from Monday’s high is considered corrective - for now. Last week’s rally reinforced the current trend direction. Price has traded through 0.6656, 61.8% of the Jul 13 - Oct 26 bear leg.
• Gold traded in a volatile manner Monday. The trend condition is bullish and Monday’s initial gains reinforce this theme. The precious metal touched a fresh all-time high of $2135.39 and this signals potential for a climb towards 2177.58 next. The trend outlook in WTI futures remains bearish and the move lower from last Thursday’s high, reinforces this set-up. Resistance to watch is $79.65, the Nov 14 high. A breach of this hurdle would strengthen any developing bullish threat.
• Bund futures maintain a firmer short-term tone following last week’s gains and this week’s continuation higher. The contract traded above 132.09 last week, the Nov 17 high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. Gilt futures rallied sharply higher Tuesday and in the process traded above resistance at 98.05, the Nov 17 high. This reinforces bullish conditions and confirms a resumption of the current uptrend. The break higher paves the way for a climb towards 98.78.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Watching Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.1150 High Jul 27
• RES 3: 1.1081 76.4% retracement of the Jul 18 - Oct 3 downleg
• RES 2: 1.1065 High Aug 10 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.0913/1017 High Dec 1 / High Nov 29 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.0801 @ 05:57 GMT Dec 6
• SUP 1: 1.0774 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0756 High Nov 5 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 3: 1.0656 Low Nov 10 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 1.0568 Low Nov 2

The trend outlook in EURUSD is bullish, however, the pair started the week on a softer note as it extends the pullback from 1.1017 the Nov 17 high. The move down appears to be a correction. Note that the trend condition is overbought and the pullback is allowing this to unwind. Support to watch is 1.0774, the 50-day EMA. A clear break would be bearish. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on the 1.1065 objective, the Aug 10 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 1.2881 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.2873 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.2800 High Aug 22
• RES 1: 1.2733 High Nov 29 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2604 @ 06:28 GMT Dec 6
• SUP 1: 1.2525 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2431 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2374 Low Nov 17
• SUP 4: 1.2266 Low Nov 14

The trend direction in GBPUSD remains up and this week’s move lower is considered corrective. Recent gains maintain the current positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. A return higher would refocus attention is on 1.2800, the Aug 22 high and 1.2868, a vol band resistance. Initial firm support to watch is at 1.2525, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Lows

• RES 4: 0.8725 High Nov 22
• RES 3: 0.8690 High Nov 27
• RES 2: 0.8668 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8616 Low Oct 11
• PRICE: 0.8562 @ 06:34 GMT Dec 6
• SUP 1: 0.8558 76.4% retracement of the Aug 23 - Nov 20 bull run
• SUP 2: 0.8524 Low Sep 5
• SUP 3: 0.8481 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 0.8493 Low Aug 23 and a key support

EURGBP maintains a softer tone and the cross is trading closer to its recent lows. Last week's downleg resulted in a break of 0.8650, the Nov 6 low and key support, and 0.8598, the 61.8% retracement for the Aug - Nov bull run. Sights are on 0.8558, the 76.4% retracement point, where a clear break would open 0.8524, the Sep 5 low. Initial resistance is seen 0.8616, the Oct 11 low. Gains would be considered corrective.

USDJPY TECHS: Trendline Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 152.20 3.00 proj of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 150.78/51.95 High Nov 17 / High Oct 21 ‘22 - major resistance
• RES 2: 149.75 High Nov 22 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 148.51 High Nov 30
• PRICE: 147.16 @ 06:44 GMT Dec 6
• SUP 1: 146.23 Loe Dec 4
• SUP 2: 145.91 Low Sep 11
• SUP 3: 144.45 Low Sep 1
• SUP 4: 142.85 61.8% of the Jul 14 - Nov 13 bull run

USDJPY maintains a softer tone. The pair traded lower last week and breached 147.15, the Nov 21 low. The move down highlights a resumption of the bear cycle that started Nov 13. Attention is on a key support at 147.05, a trendline drawn from the Mar 24 low. This line was breached Monday. A clear break would signal a stronger reversal and open 145.91, the Sep 11 low. Key short-term resistance to watch is 148.51, the Nov 30 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 164.77 1.236 proj of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 - Oct 3 price swing
• RES 3: 164.30 High Nov 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 162.25/163.72 High Nov 29 / 27
• RES 1: 160.26/161.22 50- and 20-day EMA values
• PRICE: 158.80 @ 06:58 GMT Dec 6
• SUP 1: 158.58 Low Dec 5
• SUP 2: 158.22 61.8% retracement Oct - Nov Upleg
• SUP 3: 157.70 Low Oct 30
• SUP 4: 156.78 76.4% retracement Oct - Nov Upleg

The primary uptrend in EURJPY remains intact, however, a corrective cycle remains in play and the cross continues to weaken. Price has traded through the 50-day EMA. A continuation of the bear leg would signal scope for weakness towards 157.70, the Oct 30 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 161.22, the 20-day EMA. The bull trigger is far off at 164.30, the Nov 16 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Watching Support At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 0.6821 High Jul 27
• RES 3: 0.6747 76.4% retracement of the Jul 13 - Oct 26 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6733 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 0.6623/91 High Dec 5 / 4 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6595 @ 07:56 GMT Dec 6
• SUP 1: 0.6547/44 20-day EMA / Low Dec 5
• SUP 2: 0.6488 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.6453 Low Nov 17
• SUP 4: 0.6360 Low Nov 14

The uptrend in AUDUSD remains intact and the pullback from Monday’s high is considered corrective - for now. Last week’s rally reinforced the current trend direction. Price has traded through 0.6656, 61.8% of the Jul 13 - Oct 26 bear leg. This signals scope for 0.6733, the 2.0% 10-dma envelope. Firm support is seen at 0.6547, the 20-day EMA. The average has been tested. A clear break of it would open 0.6488, the 50-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 1.3855/3899 High Nov 10 / 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.3777 High Nov 16
• RES 2: 1.3712 High Nov 24
• RES 1: 1.3650 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3565 @ 08:10 GMT Dec 6
• SUP 1: 1.3480 Low Dec 4
• SUP 2: 11.3417 Low Sep 29
• SUP 3: 1.3401 61.8% retracement of the Jul 14 - Nov 1 bull phase
• SUP 4: 1.3381 Low Sep 19 and a key support

USDCAD maintains a softer tone following last week’s bearish extension and the latest recovery is considered corrective. The recent break of trendline support, drawn from the Jul 14 low, strengthens the current downtrend and signals scope for a continuation lower near-term. Sights are on 1.3417 next, the Sep 29 low. Initial firm resistance is at 1.3650, the 50-day EMA. A breach of this hurdle is required to ease the current bearish pressure.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H4) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 136.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 135.77 2.236 proj Nov of the 13 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 135.21 2.000 proj of the Nov 13 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 135.09 Intraday high
• PRICE: 134.92 @ 08:08 GMT Dec 6
• SUP 1: 133.42/132.59 Low Dec 4 / 1
• SUP 2: 131.99 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 130.47 Low Nov 24 and key support
• SUP 4: 129.72 Low Nov 13

Bund futures maintain a firmer short-term tone following last week’s gains and this week’s continuation higher. The contract traded above 132.09 last week, the Nov 17 high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. The break higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and sights are on 135.21 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at 131.99, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (H4) Bull Theme Remains Intact

• RES 4: 118.820 3.000 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 10 - 19 price swing
• RES 3: 118.584 2.764 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 10 - 19 price swing
• RES 2: 118.438 2.618 proj of the Nov 14 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 118.310 High Dec 4
• PRICE: 118.0300 @ 05:07 GMT Dec 6
• SUP 1: 117.510 Low Dec 4
• SUP 2: 117.060 Low Dec 1
• SUP 3: 116.650 High Nov 17 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 4: 116.390 Low Nov 28

A bull cycle in Bobl futures remains in play and last week’s strong rally has reinforced this theme. The contract cleared 116.65 last week, the Nov 17 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started on Sep 28. The break paves the way for a move towards 118.438 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key support has been defined at 115.820, the Nov 24 low. Initial firm support lies at 117.060, the Dec 1 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H4) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 106.621 1.382 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
• RES 3: 106.527 1.236 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
• RES 2: 106.375 1.00 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
• RES 1: 106.250 Intraday high
• PRICE: 106.230 @ 08:09 GMT Dec 6
• SUP 1: 106.005 Low Dec 4
• SUP 2: 105.780 Low Dec 1
• SUP 3: 105.677 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 105.640 Low Nov 29

Schatz futures traded sharply higher last week and the move accelerated on Friday, reinforcing bullish conditions. The contract has breached resistance at 105.660, the Aug 17 high, strengthening current bullish conditions. This signals scope for a climb towards 106.375, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at 105.780, the Nov 30 low. A pullback would be considered corrective.

GILT TECHS: (H4) Resumes Its Uptrend

• RES 4: 99.41 1.236 proj of the Nov 24 - 29 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: 99.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 98.78 1.00 proj of the Nov 24 - 29 - 30 price swing
• RES 1: 98.32 High Dec 5
• PRICE: 98.21 @ Close Dec 5
• SUP 1: 96.10 Low Nov 30
• SUP 2: 95.25 Low Nov 24 and key support
• SUP 3: 95.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 94.74 2.618 proj of the Nov 17 - 20 - 22 price swing

Gilt futures rallied sharply higher Tuesday and in the process traded above resistance at 98.05, the Nov 17 high. This reinforces bullish conditions and confirms a resumption of the current uptrend. The break higher paves the way for a climb towards 98.78, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 96.10, the Nov 30 low. Key short-term trend support has been defined at 95.25, the Nov 24 low.

BTP TECHS: (H4) Northbound

• RES 4: 117.81 1.618 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: 117.44 1.50 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 117.07 1.382 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 116.62 High Dec 5
• PRICE: 116.58 @ Close Dec 6
• SUP 1: 114.13 Low Nov 30
• SUP 2: 113.60 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 111.53 Low Nov 14
• SUP 4: 110.95 Low Nov 10

A bull cycle in BTP futures remains in play and last week’s rally and this week’s follow through has reinforced the bullish condition. The break of resistance at 114.11, the Nov 17 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Oct 19. Potential is for a climb towards 117.07 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term trend support has been defined at 112.70, the Nov 24 low. A break of this level would signal a short-term top.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z3) Continues To Climb

• RES 4: 4561.00 2.00 proj of the Oct 27 - Nov 3 - 8 price swing
• RES 3: 4533.00 High Jul 31
• RES 2: 4500.00 High Aug 10
• RES 1: 4476.00 Intraday high
• PRICE: 4469.00 @ 06:38 GMT Dec 6
• SUP 1: 4340.50 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4277.10 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4238.00 Low Nov 14
• SUP 4: 4185.00 Low Nov 9 and 10

A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the contract is trading higher this week. Last week, resistance at 4387.00, Nov 24 high, was breached. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, signalling a rising cycle. The focus is on 4533.00, the Jul 31 high. Initial firm support to watch is at 4340.50, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (Z3) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 4700.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 4685.25 High Jul 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 4644.75 High Aug 2
• RES 1: 4607.75 High Dec 1
• PRICE: 4583.25 @ 07:24 GMT Dec 6
• SUP 1: 4514.74 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4452.88 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4420.25.25 Low Nov 14
• SUP 4: 4354.25 Low Nov 10

A bullish theme in S&P e-minis remains intact and last Friday’s push higher was a positive development. The contract is trading closer to its recent highs and so far, corrections have been shallow - a bullish signal. Note too that MA studies are in a bull-mode position and this highlights positive market sentiment. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards 4644.75, the Aug 2 high. Initial support lies at 4514.74, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (G4) Trend Direction Remains Down

• RES 4: $91.04 - High Oct 20
• RES 3: $88.55 - High Oct 27
• RES 2: $87.12 - High Nov 3
• RES 1: $84.61 - High Nov 30 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $77.37 @ 07:03 GMT Dec 6
• SUP 1: $76.71 - Low Nov 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $75.07 - 76.4% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 15 bull run
• SUP 3: $73.50 - Low Jul 6
• SUP 4: $71.45 - Low Jun 23

Brent futures peaked at $84.61 last Thursday and the contract has since pulled back. $84.61 has been defined as a key short-term resistance where a break is required to suggest potential for a stronger rally. Note that a breach would also confirm a clear break of resistance at $83.62, the Nov 14 high. The trend direction remains down. The focus is on the bear trigger at $76.71, the Nov 16 low. A break would open $75.07, a Fibonacci retracement.

WTI TECHS: (F4) Pierces The Bear Trigger

• RES 4: $88.37 - High Oct 20
• RES 3: $85.00 - High Oct 27
• RES 2: $83.20 - High Nov 3
• RES 1: $79.65 - High Nov 14 and a key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $72.40 @ 07:21 GMT Dec 6
• SUP 1: $72.02 - Low Dec 5
• SUP 2: $70.96 - 76.4% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run
• SUP 3: $69.09 - Low Jul 3
• SUP 4: $67.28 - Jun 23

The trend outlook in WTI futures remains bearish and the move lower from last Thursday’s high, reinforces this set-up. Resistance to watch is $79.65, the Nov 14 high. A breach of this hurdle would strengthen any developing bullish threat and open $83.20, the Nov 3 high. The bear trigger at $72.37, the Nov 16 low, has been pierced. A clear break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open $70.96, a Fibonacci retracement.

GOLD TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: $2206.6 - 1.382 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $2177.6 - 1.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2135.4 - High Dec 4 and all-time high
• RES 1: $2072.7 - 50.0% retracement of the Dec 4 - 5 downleg
• PRICE: $2028.8 @ 07:25 GMT Dec 6
• SUP 1: $2005.6 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1971.1 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1931.7 - Low Nov 13 and key support
• SUP 4: $1908.3 - Low Oct 16

Gold traded in a volatile manner Monday. The trend condition is bullish and Monday’s initial gains reinforce this theme. The precious metal touched a fresh all-time high of $2135.39 and this signals potential for a climb towards 2177.58 next, a Fibonacci projection. Price has since retraced and is trading closer to this week’s low, so far. A short-term pullback is considered corrective - for now. Initial support is $2005.6, the 20-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Unwinding An Overbought Condition

• RES 4: $26.397 - 1.50 proj of the Oct 3 - 20 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022
• RES 2: $26.135 - High May 5 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $25.761 - High Dec 4 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $24.274 @ 08:13 GMT Dec 6
• SUP 1: $24.073/23.507 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: $21.883 - Low Nov 13 and a key support
• SUP 3: $20.689 - Low Oct 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

Silver failed to hold on to Monday’s gains and reversed sharply lower. For now, the move down is considered corrective and the pullback is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. The next two key support levels to watch lie at $24.073 (pierced) and $23.507, the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A break of the 50-day average would strengthen a bearish threat. On the upside, Monday’s $25.761 high is the bull trigger.