MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold Strong Above the 50-Day EMA

Price Signal Summary - Gold Strong Above the 50-Day EMA

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis recovered very well Friday, striking a new alltime high in the process. Key near-term support remains the 4271.36, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of this average would signal scope for a deeper corrective pullback. The bull trigger is at 4400.00, round number resistance. EUROSTOXX 50 (U1) futures initially traded lower Friday before finding solid support and recovering into the close. The contract has topped previous support-turned-resistance at 4015.00, Jun 21 low. This raises the risk of a rally toward the Jul 1 high at 4101.50 0, Jul 1 high.
• In FX, the USD outlook remains bullish despite the Thursday/Friday recovery. EURUSD traded lower mid-week, extending the downtrend to keep focus on 1.1704, Mar 31 low. Gains are considered corrective. The GBPUSD focus is on 1.3733, Jul 2 low where a break would open 1.3717, Apr 16 low. Resistance is at 1.3948, the 50-day EMA. USDJPY remains vulnerable following LAST week's sell-off. The move lower has resulted in a print below the 50-day EMA at 109.88 as well as the Jun 21 low at 109.72. A resumption of weakness would expose 109.19/14, the Jun 7 low and the 100-dma.
• On the commodity front, Gold maintains a firmer tone. Attention is on the 50-day EMA that intersects at $1814.1. A clear break of the EMA is required to suggest scope for a stronger rally. This would open $1833.7, 50.0% of the Jun 1 - 29 decline. Brent (U1) remains vulnerable following this week's downleg. The focus is on $71.24, the Jun 17 low. Gains are considered corrective. WTI (Q1) has also cleared its 20-day EMA this week and attention turns to $69.54, Jun 17 low.
• Within FI, Bund futures remain firm having cleared resistance at 173.16, Jun 11 high. Scope is for a climb to 174.97 next, Mar 3 high (cont). Gilt futures remain bullish despite the pullback from Thursday's high. Futures have topped key resistance at 128.39, Jun 11 high, strengthening the current bullish case. Attention is on 129.99, the Feb 24 high (cont).

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 1.2006 High Jun 29 / Jun 17
• RES 3: 1.1994 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.1930/1975 High Jun 29 / High Jun 25
• RES 1: 1.1895 High Jul 6
• PRICE: 1.1869 @ 05:53 BST Jul 12
• SUP 1: 1.1782 Low Jul 7
• SUP 2: 1.1738 Low Apr 5
• SUP 3: 1.1704 Low Mar 31 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.1603 Low Nov 4, 2020

EURUSD outlook remains bearish despite the recovery late last week. Recent price action has seen the pair trade through 1.1808, Jul 2 low. The move lower maintains the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Price has also cleared 1.1795, the Apr 6 low exposing key support at 1.1704, Mar 31 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.1975, Jun 25 high. Initial firm resistance is at 1.1895, the July 6 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: S/T Trend Structure Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 1.4133 High Jun 16
• RES 3: 1.4074 Low Jun 10
• RES 2: 1.4001 High Jun 23 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.3948 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3891 @ 06:05 BST Jul 12
• SUP 1: 1.3733 Low Jul 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3717 Low Apr 16
• SUP 3: 1.3669 Low Apr 12 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.3567 Low Apr 2

The GBPUSD outlook remains bearish despite the strong rally Friday. Cable has recently breached 1.3787, Jun 21 low and this has confirmed a resumption of the current bearish cycle. The move lower signals scope for a test of 1.3717, Apr 16 low. Attention is also on the key short-term support and bear trigger at 1.3669, Apr 12 low. Firm resistance is seen at 1.4001, Jun 23 high where a break would alter the picture. First resistance is at 1.3948.

EURGBP TECHS: Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 0.8731 High Feb 26
• RES 3: 0.8701/21 High May 7 / High Apr 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8646/72 High Jun 1 / High May 25
• RES 1: 0.8618/29 High Jul 8 and key resistance / High Jun 15
• PRICE: 0.8545 @ 06:10 BST Jul 12
• SUP 1: 0.8530/31 Low June 23 / 76.4% of the Apr 5 - 26 rally
• SUP 2: 0.8491 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 0.8472 Low Apr 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8430 Low Feb 27, 2020

EURGBP is trading closer to recent lows. The outlook remains bearish. Attention is on 0.8531, 76.4% of the Apr 5 - 26 rally and just above the Jun 23 low. Clearance of this support area would strengthen a bearish case and expose key support at 0.8472, Apr 5 low. The cross last week probed resistance at 0.8616, the Jul 1 high. A clear break is required to neutralise the current bearish theme.

USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: 112.23 High Feb 20, 2020 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 111.71/111.98 High Mar 24, 2020 / 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 111.66 High Jul 2
• RES 1: 110.82 High Jul 7
• PRICE: 110.19 @ 06:17 BST Jul 12
• SUP 1: 109.53 Low Jul 9
• SUP 2: 109.19 Low Jun 7 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 108.56 Low May 25
• SUP 4: 108.34 Low May 7

USDJPY traded lower last week, extending the mover lower from 111.66, Jul 2 high. The current bear leg is considered corrective. This follows the recent breach of 111.12, Jun 24 high and a previous bull trigger. The move higher reinforces the bull trend and the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on 111.66, high Jul 2. A deeper sell-off would instead expose support at 109.19.

EURJPY TECHS: Bearish Risk Still Present

• RES 4: 132.88 High Jun 17
• RES 3: 132.70 High Jun 23
• RES 2: 132.43 High Jul 1 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 131.04/79 High Jul 7 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 130.76 @ 06:23 BST Jul 12
• SUP 1: 129.63 Low Jul 8
• SUP 2: 129.35 38.2% retracement of the Oct 2020 - May 2021 rally
• SUP 3: 128.83 Low Mar 29
• SUP 4: 128.29 Low Mar 24 and key support

EURJPY outlook is bearish following last week's move lower and break of support at 130.04, Jun 21 low. This reinforces the bearish theme following the break on Jun 17 of a bull channel base drawn off the Oct 30 2020 low. The resumption of the downtrend opens 129.35 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies are beginning to highlight a bearish condition highlighting the risk of an extension lower. 131.04 marks initial resistance.

AUDUSD TECHS: Eyeing The Bear Channel Base

• RES 4: 0.7645 High Jun 17
• RES 3: 0.7628 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 0.7617 High Jun 25 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 0.7534/99 High Jul 7 / High Jul 6
• PRICE: 0.7471 @ 06:29 BST Jul 12
• SUP 1: 0.7410 Low Jul 9
• SUP 2: 0.7371 Bear channel base drawn off the Feb 25 high
• SUP 3: 0.7339 Low Nov 30, 2020
• SUP 4: 0.7304 1.236 proj of Feb 25 - Apr 1 - May 10 price swing

AUDUSD traded lower last week and the pair is approaching key short-term support. Price recently found resistance at 0.7599, Jul 6 high. The outlook remains bearish and the focus is on 0.7371, the bear channel base drawn off the Feb 25 high. The recent move lower maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and moving average studies remain in bear mode. Initial resistance is at 0.7534.

USDCAD TECHS: Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 1.2737 High Mar 5
• RES 3: 1.2653 High Apr 21 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2649 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 1.2590 High Jul 8
• PRICE: 1.2471 @ 06:34 BST Jul 12
• SUP 1: 1.2423 Low Jul 7
• SUP 2: 1.2303/2253 Low Jul 6 / Low Jun 23 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.2157 Low Jun 16
• SUP 4: 1.2057 Low Jun 7

USDCAD maintains a bullish theme despite the pullback Friday. Gains last week resulted in a break of resistance at 1.2487, the Jun 21 high. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Jun 1 and also confirms a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. MA studies are in a bull mode condition. The focus is on 1.2653, Apr 21 high and an important resistance. Firm trend support lies at 1.2253, Jun 23 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U1) Bull Price Sequence

• RES 4: 175.88 1.236 proj of the May 19 - Jun 11 - Jun 22 price swing
• RES 3: 175.26 High Feb 18 (cont)
• RES 2: 175.08 1.00 proj of the May 19 - Jun 11 - Jun 22 price swing
• RES 1: 174.77/97 High Jul 8 / High Mar 3 (cont)
• PRICE: 174.06 @ 05:10 BST Jul 12
• SUP 1: 173.16 High Jun 11 and recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 172.49 Low Jul 6 and the 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 171.67 Low Jun 22 and the near-term bear trigger
• SUP 4: 171.37 Low Jun 3

Bund futures traded higher last week, extending the rally that started Jun 22. The contract recently cleared key resistance at 173.16, Jun 11 high. The break confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started May 9 and established a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Attention is on 174.97 next, Mar 3 high (cont) and 175.08, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support is at 173.16.

BOBL TECHS: (U1) Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 134.912 1.618 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 134.835 1.50 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 134.758 1.382 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 134.710 High Jul 8
• PRICE: 134.510 @ 05:09 BST Jul 12
• SUP 1: 134.340 Low Jul 7
• SUP 2: 134.070 Low Jul 6
• SUP 3: 133.860 Low May 28, 31, Jun 22 and key S/T support
• SUP 4: 133.530 Low May 21

Bobl futures maintain a bullish theme as the current uptrend looks set to extend. Futures last week confirmed a clear break of key short term resistance at 134.510, Jun 11 high and a Fibonacci projection. The clear break confirms a resumption of the recovery that started May 20 and sets the scene for an extension higher. This opens 134.758, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial support lies at 134.340, Jul 7 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U1) Key Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 112.290 High Feb 11 (cont)
• RES 3: 112.280 High Feb 12 (cont)
• RES 2: 112.250 High Mar 1 and 2 (cont)
• RES 1: 112.215 High Jul 8
• PRICE: 112.175 @ 05:03 BST Jul 12
• SUP 1: 112.159 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 112.140 Low Jul 5 and 6
• SUP 3: 112.120 Low Jun 30
• SUP 4: 112.110 Congestion lows Apr 20, Jun 22, 23, 25 and 28

Schatz futures traded higher last week and the recent short-term recovery from the 112.110 congestion lows remains intact signalling scope for a continuation higher. Resistance at 112.210, Jun 11 high was probed last week, a clear break would strengthen a bullish case. On the downside, clearance of 112.110 is required to reinstate a bearish theme. Initial firm support is 112.140.

GILT TECHS: (U1) Bullish Trend Structure Remains Intact

• RES 4: 130.62 High Feb 22 (cont)
• RES 3: 130.30 2.00 proj of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing
• RES 2: 129.99 High Feb 24 (cont)
• RES 1: 129.91 High Jul 8
• PRICE: 128.77 @ Close Jul 9
• SUP 1: 128.39 High Jun 11 and recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 128.03 Jul 6
• SUP 3: 127.25 Low Jun 10
• SUP 4: 126.91 Low Jun 17 and key support

Gilt futures traded higher last week but has retraced part of the move. Recent gains have resulted in a clear break of the key S/T resistance at 128.39, Jun 11 high. The break represents an important bullish development and signals a resumption of the uptrend that started May 13. Furthermore, the move higher maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Attention is on 129.99, the Feb 24 high (cont). Initial firm support is at 128.39.

BTP TECHS: (U1) Bullish Focus

• RES 4: 154.15 0.764 proj of May 19 - Jun 14 - Jun 25 price swing
• RES 3: 153.35 0.618 proj of May 19 - Jun 14 - Jun 25 price swing
• RES 2: 153.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 152.82 High Jul 8
• PRICE: 152.22 @ Close Jul 9
• SUP 1: 151.54 Low Jul 6
• SUP 2: 151.19 High Jul 1
• SUP 3: 150.56 Low Jun 30
• SUP 4: 149.97 Low Jun 25 and key short-term support

BTPs are trading closer to recent highs and maintain a bullish theme. The rally last week resulted in breach of key resistance at 152.47, Jun 14 high. The break higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started May 19 and paves the way for a stronger short-term recovery. Attention is on 153.00 and 153.35, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support is at the Jul 6 low of 151.54 low. Key support has been defined at 149.97, Jun 25 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (U1) Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 4175.00 Nov 26, 2008 low (cont)
• RES 3: 4153.00 High Jun 17 and bull trigger
• RES 2: 4121.00 High Jun 25
• RES 1: 4101.50 High Jul 1
• PRICE: 4053.50 @ 05:47 BST Jul 12
• SUP 1: 3951.50 Low Jul 8
• SUP 2: 3976.00 Low May 21
• SUP 3: 3914.00 Low May 20
• SUP 4: 3871.00 Low May 19

EUROSTOXX 50 futures recovered Friday however the move is likely a correction. The contract last week traded through a key near-term support at 4015.00, Jun 21 low. The break lower strengthens a short-term bearish case and reinforces the reversal highlighted by the bearish engulfing candle line on Jun 21. This opens 3914.00, the May 20 low. Initial resistance is seen at 4101.50, Jul 1 high. A break would be bullish.

E-MINI S&P (U1): Fresh All-Time High

• RES 4: 4508.82 1.236 proj of Mar 25 - May 10 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 4415.48 1.00 proj of Mar 25 - May 10 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 4000.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4365.25 Intraday high
• PRICE: 4351.50 @ 06:43 BST Jul 12
• SUP 1: 4279.25 Low Jul 8
• SUP 2: 4209.00/4126.75 50-day EMA / Low Jun 21 and key support
• SUP 3: 4100.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 4020.20 Low May 13 and key short-term support

S&P E-minis buy dips mentality continues to dominate and trend conditions remain in a strong bull mode. Furthermore, the recovery from 4279.25, Jul 8 low has resulted in a fresh all-time high once again. With the bullish cycle still dominating, attention is 4400.00 next. On the downside, the contract needs to trade below 4279.25 to signal a potential top. This would signal scope for a deeper corrective pullback.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U1) Bearish Risk Remains Present

• RES 4: $78.03 - High Oct 29, 2018 (cont)
• RES 3: $77.86 - 1.382 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• RES 2: $77.84 - High Jul 6 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $75.99 - High Jul 7
• PRICE: $75.21 @ 06:45 BST Jul 12
• SUP 1: $72.11 - Low Jul 8
• SUP 2: $71.24 - Low Jun 17 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: $69.42 - High May 18 and the recent break out level
• SUP 4: $67.40 - Low May 25

Brent futures have recovered from last week's lows. The short-term outlook remains bearish though following the reversal lower on Jul 6 with key resistance defined at $77.84, that day's high. The contract has recently cleared the 20-day EMA. The breach of this average opens $71.24, Jun 17 low and an important short-term support. For bulls, a move above $77.84 is required to confirm a resumption of the underlying uptrend.

WTI TECHS: (Q1) Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: $78.79 - 1.764 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• RES 3: $77.35 - 1.618 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• RES 2: $76.98 - High Jul 6 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $74.86 - High Jul 7
• PRICE: $74.37 @ 06:56 BST Jul 12
• SUP 1: $72.74/ 70.76 - 20-day EMA / Low Jul 8
• SUP 2: $69.54 - Low Jun 17 and a key support
• SUP 3: $69.22 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $67.59 - Low Jun 2

Brent futures are likely to continue facing selling pressure near-term and recent gains are considered corrective. The move lower last and reversal on Jul 6 resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA. The breach of the EMA opens $69.54, Jun 17 low and an important short-term support. For bulls, a move above $77.84, the Jul 6 high would instead confirm a resumption of the underlying uptrend.

GOLD TECHS: Attention remains On The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $1853.3 - 61.8% retracement of the Jun 1 - 29 decline
• RES 3: $1833.7 - 50.0% retracement of the Jun 1 - 29 decline
• RES 2: $1825.4 - High Jun 17
• RES 1: $1813.9/18.5 - 50-day EMA / High Jul 8
• PRICE: $1800.0 @ 07:25 BST Jul 12
• SUP 1: $1774.4/1750.8 - Low Jul 2 / Low Jun 29
• SUP 2: $1733.5 -76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - Jun 1 rally
• SUP 3: $1723.8 - Low Apr 13
• SUP 4: $1700.00 - Round number support

Gold is consolidating and maintains a firmer short-term tone following the recent recovery from $1750.8, Jun 29 low. Attention is on the 50-day EMA at $1813.9 today. The area around the EMA represents a key resistance and a clear break is required to suggest scope for stronger gains. This would open $1833.7, a Fibonacci retracement. A failure at the 50-day EMA would be considered a bearish signal and suggest scope for a return to $1750.8.

SILVER TECHS: Attention Is On Support

• RES 4: $28.556 - High Jun 1
• RES 3: $28.285 - High Jun 11 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $27.831 - High Jun 16
• RES 1: $26.775/27.245 - High Jul 6 / High Jun 17
• PRICE: $25.976 @ 07:27 BST Jul 12
• SUP 1: $25.529 - Low Jun 29 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: $25.199 - Low Apr 14
• SUP 3: $24.955 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 31 - May 18 rally
• SUP 4: $24.686 - Low Apr 13

Silver recently breached resistance at $26.495, Jun 18 high. The break neutralises a recent bearish theme and instead signals scope for a stronger short-term recovery. If the metal is able to resume its climb, this would open $27.245, Jun 17 high. Thus far, price has failed to hold onto recent gains and attention is on the key support and bear trigger at $25.529, Jun 29 low. Clearance of this level resumes a downtrend.