MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold Trend Condition Remains Bullish

Price Signal Summary – Gold Trend Condition Remains Bullish

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and remains bullish. Monday’s high print reinforces current conditions, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position reflecting positive market sentiment. A bullish trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the contract traded to fresh cycle highs last week. The climb confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• A bearish threat in GBPUSD remains present and the pair traded lower Monday, marking an extension of the downleg that started Mar 8. The move lower paves the way for a test of 1.2519, the Feb 5 low and a key support. A bullish theme in USDJPY remains intact. The latest pause appears to be a flag - a bullish continuation pattern. MA studies are in a bull-mode position too and this also highlights a clear uptrend. Sights are on 151.91/95, the Nov 13 high and Oct 1 ‘22 highs respectively. AUDUSD maintains a softer tone and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. The reversal lower on Mar 21 reinstated a bearish threat and has exposed 0.6478, the Mar 5 low. Clearance of this level would open the key support and bear trigger at 0.6443.
• The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and the yellow metal has traded to fresh all-time highs once again this week. The move higher maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition. A bull theme in WTI futures remains intact and yesterday’s move higher reinforces current condition and confirms a resumption of the uptrend. The contract has traded through resistance at $83.87, the Oct 20 high.
• Bund futures remain in a bull cycle and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Price has traded through the 50-day EMA - at 132.99. A clear break of this EMA would be a bullish development and a continuation higher would open the key resistance at 134.15. Gilt futures continue to trade closer to their recent highs and a bull cycle remains in play. A continuation higher would expose key short-term resistance at 100.37, the Mar 13 low, where a break would strengthen any developing bullish theme.

EURUSD TECHS: Approaching Key Support

• RES 4: 1.0998 High Jan 5
• RES 3: 1.0981 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.0943 High Mar 21
• RES 1: 1.0838/0864 20-day EMA / High Mar 26
• PRICE: 1.0732 @ 05:55 GMT Apr 2
• SUP 1: 1.0695 Low Feb 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.0656 Low Nov 10
• SUP 3: 1.0611 76.4% retracement of the Oct - Dec bull rally
• SUP 4: 1.0568 Low Nov 2 ‘23

EURUSD has started the week on a bearish note and the pair traded lower Monday. The move down reinforces a bearish theme and sights are on key support at 1.0695, the Feb 14 low and bear trigger. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear leg that started on Dec 28. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at the 20-day EMA, at 1.0838. A move above this average is required to ease bearish pressure.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 1.2996 High Jul 27 2023
• RES 3: 1.2946 2.00 projection of the Feb 14 - 22 - Mar 1 price swing
• RES 2: 1.2894 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2668/2803 20-day EMA / High Mar 21
• PRICE: 1.2545 @ 06:18 GMT Apr 2
• SUP 1: 1.2536 Low Feb 14
• SUP 2: 1.2519 Low Feb 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.2465, 50.0% retracement of the Oct 4 - Mar 8 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.2446 Low Nov 20 ‘23

A bearish threat in GBPUSD remains present and the pair traded lower Monday, marking an extension of the downleg that started Mar 8. The move lower paves the way for a test of 1.2519, the Feb 5 low and a key support. Clearance of this level would reinforce the bearish theme. First resistance is 1.2668, the 20-day EMA. A breach of this average is required to ease bearish pressure.

EURGBP TECHS: Short-Term Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 0.8678 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 bear cycle
• RES 3: 0.8620 High Jan 20
• RES 2: 0.8607 23.6% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 bear cycle
• RES 1: 0.8571/8602 High Mar 28 / 22
• PRICE: 0.8554 @ 06:30 GMT Apr 1
• SUP 1: 0.8530/8504 Low Mar 29 and Mar 8
• SUP 2: 0.8493 Low Aug 23 2023 and a key medium-term support
• SUP 3: 0.8454 76.4% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase
• SUP 4: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2023

Despite the latest pullback, a bullish short-term cycle in EURGBP remains intact. The recent breach of resistance at 0.8578, the Feb 20 high, confirmed a range breakout highlighting a short-term bull theme. A resumption of gains would open 0.8607, a Fibonacci retracement point. Note that MA studies are in a bear-mode position and this continues to highlight a dominant medium-term downtrend. The bear trigger is 0.8493, the Aug 23 2023 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Bulls Remain IN The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 153.39 1.382 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
• RES 3: 153.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 152.66 1.236 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
• RES 1: 151.97 High Mar 27
• PRICE: 151.73 @ 06:44 GMT Apr 2
• SUP 1: 150.48/149.39 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 147.44 Low Mar 14
• SUP 3: 146.49 Low Mar 08 / 11 and key support
• SUP 4: 145.90 Low Feb 1

A bullish theme in USDJPY remains intact. The latest pause appears to be a flag - a bullish continuation pattern. MA studies are in a bull-mode position too and this also highlights a clear uptrend. Sights are on 151.91/95, the Nov 13 high and Oct 1 ‘22 highs respectively. The resistance has been tested, a clear break would confirm a resumption of the long-term uptrend and open 152.66, a Fibonacci projection. Support is at 150.48, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Approaching Trendline Support

• RES 4: 167.17 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 166.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 165.35 High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 163.43/164.42 High Apr 1 / High Mar 27
• PRICE: 162.78 @ 07:08 GMT Apr 2
• SUP 1: 162.15 Trendline drawn from Dec 7 low
• SUP 2: 162.04 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 161.07 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 160.22 Low Mar 11

EURJPY remains in a short-term bear cycle and the cross is approaching a key short-term support at 162.15, a trendline drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low. For now, the move lower appears to be a correction, however, a clear break of the trendline would highlight a stronger short-term reversal. A clear breach of the trendline would also highlight a break of the 50-day EMA - at 162.04. Initial firm resistance is at 164.42, the Mar 27 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bear Cycle

• RES 4: 0.6729 High Jan 12
• RES 3: 0.6708 61.8% retracement of the Dec 28 - Feb 13 bear cycle
• RES 2: 0.6668 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.6558/6635 50-day EMA / High Mar 21
• PRICE: 0.6491 @ 08:04 GMT Apr 2
• SUP 1: 0.6481 Low Apr 1
• SUP 2: 0.6478 Low Mar 5
• SUP 3: 0.6443 Low Feb 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6412 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg

AUDUSD maintains a softer tone and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. The reversal lower on Mar 21 reinstated a bearish threat and has exposed 0.6478, the Mar 5 low. Clearance of this level would open the key support and bear trigger at 0.6443, the Feb 13 low. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position and continue to highlight a short-term downtrend. Initial firm resistance is at 0.6558, the 50-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 1.3729 76.4% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.3661 High Nov 27
• RES 2: 1.3623 61.8% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.3614 High Mar 19 / 22 / 25 / 28 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3575 @ 08:08 GMT Apr 2
• SUP 1: 1.3456/20 Low Mar 21 / 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3359 Low Jan 31 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: 1.3343 Low Jan 12
• SUP 4: 1.3288 Low Jan 5

A bullish theme in USDCAD remains in play and sights are on key short-term resistance at 1.3614, the Mar 19 high and a recent congestion level. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that began on Dec 27. This would expose 1.3623, a Fibonacci retracement, and 1.3661, the Nov 27 high. On the downside, key support is unchanged at 1.3420, the Mar 8 low. A break of this level would be bearish.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M4) Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 134.78 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Feb 29 bear cycle
• RES 3: 134.48 High Feb 5
• RES 2: 134.15 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 133.48/69 High Mar 27 / 12
• PRICE: 133.88 @ 05:30 GMT Apr 2
• SUP 1: 132.28/131.54 Low Mar 22 / 18
• SUP 2: 131.23 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 131.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 129.88 Bear channel base drawn from the Dec 27 high

Bund futures remain in a bull cycle and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Price has traded through the 50-day EMA - at 132.99. A clear break of this EMA would be a bullish development and a continuation higher would open the key resistance at 134.15, the Mar 8 high. Key support has been defined at 131.23, the Feb 29 low. Clearance of this level is required to confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started last December.

BOBL TECHS: (M4) Corrective Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 119.050 High Feb 8
• RES 2: 118.790 High Feb 15 and Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 118.460 High Mar 12
• RES 1: 118.310 High Mar 27
• PRICE: 118.050 @ 05:26 GMT Apr 2
• SUP 1: 117.600/340 Low Mar 21 / 18
• SUP 2: 117.200 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 117.000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 116.740 High Mar 5 (cont)

Bobl futures are trading closer to their recent highs. The latest recovery appears to be a correction, however, the current bull cycle remains intact and a continuation higher would expose key resistance at 118.790, the Feb 15 / Mar 8 high. For bears, a reversal lower would open the key support and bear trigger at 117.200, the Feb 29 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a continuation of the downtrend that started early December last year.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M4) Support Stays Intact For Now

• RES 4: 106.145 High Feb 15
• RES 3: 106.040 Low Feb 15
• RES 2: 106.010 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 105.790/875 High Mar 25 / 12
• PRICE: 105.665 @ 06:06 GMT Apr 2
• SUP 1: 105.615/515 Low Mar 21 / 15
• SUP 2: 105.490 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 105.430 High Feb 20 (cont)
• SUP 4: 105.310 High Feb 26 (cont)

Schatz futures are consolidating. A downtrend remains intact, however, a S/T corrective cycle is in play and the contract is trading above its recent low. A continuation higher would expose key resistance at 106.010, the Mar 8 high. A break of this level would be bullish. On the downside, a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 105.490, the Feb 29 low. A break would resume the downtrend that started in December last year.

GILT TECHS: (M4) Key Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 101.00 Round number support
• RES 3: 100.73 1.764 projection of the Feb 29 - Mar 1 - 4 price swing
• RES 2: 100.50 1.618 projection of the Feb 29 - Mar 1 - 4 price swing
• RES 1: 100.05/100.37 High Mar 22 / 12 and a key S/T resistance
• PRICE: 99.74 @ Close Mar 28
• SUP 1: 99.04/98.05 20-day EMA / Low Mar 15 and a key support
• SUP 2: 97.67 76.4% retracement of the Feb 29 - Mar 12 rally
• SUP 3: 97.42 Low Mar 1
• SUP 4: 96.83 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger

Gilt futures continue to trade closer to their recent highs and a bull cycle remains in play. A continuation higher would expose key short-term resistance at 100.37, the Mar 13 low, where a break would strengthen any developing bullish theme. Key short-term support has been defined at 98.05, the Mar 15 low. A break would be bearish. For now, 98.05 and 100.37 remain the key short-term directional triggers.

BTP TECHS: (M4) Trading Above Support

• RES 4: 121.65 2.618 proj of the Feb 22 - 26 - 29 price swing
• RES 3: 121.19 2.382 proj of the Feb 22 - 26 - 29 price swing
• RES 2: 120.65 High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 120.28 High Mar 14
• PRICE: 119.01 @ Close Apr 28
• SUP 1: 118.76/33 20-day EMA / Low Mar 15
• SUP 2: 118.04 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 116.15 Low Feb 22 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 116.00 Round number support

BTP futures are consolidating and continue to trade below their recent highs. A short-term bullish theme remains intact following the recovery that started on Feb 22. Support to watch is at the 20-day EMA - at 118.76. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement and this would open 118.04, the 50-day EMA and a key short-term support. Key resistance and the bull trigger is unchanged at 120.65, the Dec 27 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M4) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 5127.70 1.382 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 5100.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 5074.70 1.236 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
• RES 1: 5063.00 High Mar 28
• PRICE: 5047.00 @ 06:23 GMT Apr 2
• SUP 1: 4947.20 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4923.00 Low Mar 19
• SUP 3: 4872.00/4826.00 Low Mar 11 / 5
• SUP 4: 4771.00 Low Feb 22

A bullish trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the contract traded to fresh cycle highs last week. The climb confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting positive market sentiment. Sights are on 5074.7, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is at 4947.20, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M4) Bullish Trend Structure

• RES 4: 5434.54 Bull channel top drawn from the Jan 17 low
• RES 3: 5428.25 1.00 proj of the Oct 27 - Dec 28 - May 1 price swing
• RES 2: 5400.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 5333.50 High Apr 1
• PRICE: 5291.25 @ 07:49 GMT Apr 2
• SUP 1: 5272.92 Bull channel base drawn from the Jan 17 low
• SUP 2: 5240.19 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 5157.00 Low Mar 11
• SUP 4: 5127.42 50-day EMA

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and remains bullish. Monday’s high print reinforces current conditions, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position reflecting positive market sentiment. Sights are on 5400.00 and 5434.54, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Jan 17 low. Initial firm support is 5240.19, the 20-day EMA. A move lower is considered corrective.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M4) Heading North

• RES 4: $92.96 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 3: $90.98 - 1.764 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 2: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $88.51 - High Sep 15 ‘23 and a key resistance
• PRICE: $88.02 @ 07:12 GMT Apr 2
• SUP 1: $84.63 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $82.61 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $79.70 - Low Feb 26
• SUP 4: $76.18 - Low Feb 5 and key S/T support

A bull cycle in Brent futures remains in play and the contract has started this week’s session on a bullish note. Yesterday’s gains resulted in a break of $87.62, the Oct 20 ‘ 23 high. The climb reinforces bullish conditions and sights are set on the next important resistance at $88.51, the Sep 15 ‘23 high. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position and this highlights a clear rising trend. Initial support lies at $84.63, the 20-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (K4) Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $87.01 - 1.764 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 2: $85.73 - 1.618 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 1: $84.87 - High Sep 15 ‘23 and a key resistance
• PRICE: $84.22 @ 07:28 GMT Apr 2
• SUP 1: $80.60 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $78.46/75.50 - 50-day EMA / Low Feb 26
• SUP 3: $71.52 Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $70.02 - Low Jan 3

A bull theme in WTI futures remains intact and yesterday’s move higher reinforces current condition and confirms a resumption of the uptrend. The contract has traded through resistance at $83.87, the Oct 20 high. This signals scope for a test of $84.87 next, the Sep 15 ‘23 high. A break would open the $90.00 handle further out. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at $80.60, the 20-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Fresh All-Time High

• RES 4: $2329.5 - 2.00 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $2300.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $2282.6 - 1.764 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 1: $2265.7 - High Apr 1
• PRICE: $2254.2 @ 07:28 GMT Apr 2
• SUP 1: $2164.8 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $2146.2 - Low Mar 18 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: $2109.3 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $2088.5 - High Dec 28

The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and the yellow metal has traded to fresh all-time highs once again this week. The move higher maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition, reflecting positive market sentiment. This signals scope for a climb towards $2282.6, a Fibonacci projection. Key trend support has been defined at $2146.2, the Mar 18 low.

SILVER TECHS: Recent Pullback Appears To Be A Correction

• RES 4: $26.753 - 1.618 proj of the Oct 3 - 20 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 ‘22
• RES 2: $26.135 - High May 5 ‘23 and a key M/T resistance
• RES 1: $25.774 - High Mar 21
• PRICE: $25.425 @ 08:12 GMT Apr 2
• SUP 1: $24.328 - Low Mar 27
• SUP 2: $23.904 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $22.277 - Low Feb 28
• SUP 4: $21.928 - Low Jan 22 and a key support

The latest pullback in Silver appears to have been a correction. Recent gains reinforce a bullish theme. Resistance at $25.761, Dec 4 high, has been pierced and a clear break would strengthen bullish conditions and expose key resistance at $26.135, May 5 ‘23 high. A move through this level would highlight an important technical break. Initial firm support lies at $24.328, the Mar 27 low. A clear break of it would expose the 50-day EMA, at $23.904.