MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold Trend Condition Remains Bullish Ahead of CPI

Price Signal Summary – Gold Trend Condition Remains Bullish Ahead of CPI

• S&P E-Minis traded higher Monday but for now price remains closer to its recent lows. The recent move down is considered corrective. The uptrend that started on Oct 13 remains intact, however, attention is on support at the 50-day EMA. EUROSTOXX 50 futures are consolidating. Trend conditions are bullish and the recent pullback is considered corrective. Recent high prints confirmed an extension of the uptrend that started in early October and this maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• EURUSD is unchanged and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. Key short-term resistance at 1.0595 remains intact, the Dec 5 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 1.0615, the Jun 27 high. EURGBP is consolidating and trading just ahead of support at 0.8549/47, the 200-dma and Dec 1 low. Weakness through this area would take the cross to its lowest levels since late August. The AUDUSD trend condition is bullish and the pair remains above support. The key support level to watch is 0.6640, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would highlight a bearish development and signal scope for a deeper retracement.
• Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and recent pullbacks appear to be a correction. A fresh trend high on Dec 5 reinforced a bullish theme and price has recently breached $1786.5, the Nov 15 high and a bull trigger, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. Trend conditions in WTI futures remain bearish, however, the latest recovery highlights the start of a possible corrective cycle. A continuation higher would allow an oversold trend reading to unwind, ahead of a resumption of the downtrend.
• The Bund futures trend direction is up and the latest pullback is considered corrective - for now. Resistance at 141.94, the Nov 24 high, has recently been breached and moving average studies have crossed, to highlight a bull mode condition. Gilt futures traded lower Monday but price remains inside the recent range. Trend conditions are bullish. Recent fresh cycle highs maintain the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and moving average studies highlight a bull mode set-up.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs

• RES 4: 1.0774 High Jun 9
• RES 3: 1.0736 2.382 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 1.0668 2.236 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - 13 price swing
• RES 1: 1.0595/0615 High Dec 5 and bull trigger / High Jun 27
• PRICE: 1.0541 @ 05:33 GMT Dec 13
• SUP 1: 1.0443 Low Dec 7
• SUP 2: 1.0402/0291 20-day EMA / Low Nov 30
• SUP 3: 1.0227 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.0223 Low Nov 21

EURUSD is unchanged and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. Key short-term resistance at 1.0595 remains intact, the Dec 5 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 1.0615, the Jun 27 high. Note that while price remains below 1.0595, a bear candle on Dec 5 - a shooting star - continues to highlight a possible short-term bearish threat. A reversal would open 1.0402, the 20-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.2667 High May 27
• RES 3: 1.2599 High Jun 7
• RES 2: 1.2506 1.382 proj of the Sep 26 - Oct 5 - Oct 12 price swing
• RES 1: 1.2345/2406 High Dec 5 and the bull trigger / High Jun 16
• PRICE: 1.2275 @ 05:48 GMT Dec 13
• SUP 1: 1.2107 Low Dec 7
• SUP 2: 1.2049 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.1901 Low Nov 30 and a key short-term support
• SUP 4: 1.1815 50-day EMA

Trend conditions in GBPUSD remain bullish and price continues to trade just below its recent highs. The pair recently cleared the 200-dma - a bullish development - and maintains a positive sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position too, highlighting positive market sentiment. A resumption of gains would open 1.2406, the Jun 16 high. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.2049, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Remains Above Support At The 200 DMA

• RES 4: 0.8867 High Oct 12
• RES 3: 0.8829 High Nov 09 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8778 High Nov 16
• RES 1: 0.8657 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8589 @ 06:07 GMT Dec 13
• SUP 1: 0.8549/47 200-dma / Low Dec 1 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8522 Low Aug 30
• SUP 3: 0.8471 Low Aug 28
• SUP 4: 0.8449 1.236 proj of the Oct 12 - 31 - Nov 9 price swing

EURGBP is consolidating and trading just ahead of support at 0.8549/47, the 200-dma and Dec 1 low. Weakness through this area would take the cross to its lowest levels since late August. A break would also strengthen a bearish theme and pave the way for a move towards 0.8522 initially, the Aug 30 low. On the upside the 50-day EMA, at 0.8657, marks a key short-term resistance. A break would ease the bearish threat.

USDJPY TECHS: Approaching The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 140.85 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 140.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 138.60 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 137.97 Intraday high
• PRICE: 137.53 @ 06:17 GMT Dec 13
• SUP 1: 135.61/133.63 Low Dec 9 / 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 132.56 Low Aug 15
• SUP 3: 131.08 1.00 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 15 - 21 price swing
• SUP 4: 130.41 Low Aug 2

USDJPY traded higher Monday. The short-term outlook is bullish and the pair remains in a corrective cycle, following the recovery from 133.63, the Dec 2 low. This is allowing a recent oversold trend reading to unwind and attention is on 138.60, the 20-day EMA. This average marks the first key short-term resistance. On the downside, the bear trigger is unchanged at 133.63. A break would resume the downtrend.

EURJPY TECHS: Trendline Resistance Has Been Cleared

• RES 4: 147.10 High Nov 9
• RES 3: 146.31 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 146.14 High Nov 23 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 145.32 Intraday high
• PRICE: 145.12 @ 06:42 GMT Dec 13
• SUP 1: 143.67 Low Dec 12
• SUP 2: 143.10 Low Dec 6
• SUP 3: 140.77 Low Dec 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 140.00 76.4% retracement of the Sep 26 - Oct 21 bull leg

EURJPY started the week on a bullish note. The cross has traded through the trendline resistance, drawn from the Oct 21 high, as well as last week’s highs. The break higher strengthens bullish conditions and opens 146.14, the Nov 23 high and the next important resistance. On the downside, key support has been defined at 140.77, the Dec 2 low. A break of this level would resume bearish activity. Initial firm support lies at 143.10, the Dec 6 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Remains Above Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 0.6976 2.00 proj of the Oct 13 - 27 - Nov 3 price swing
• RES 3: 0.6956 High Aug 30
• RES 2: 0.6909 76.4% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 1: 0.6851 High Dec 5 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6765 @ 06:46 GMT Dec 13
• SUP 1: 0.6669 Low Dec 7
• SUP 2: 0.6640/6585 50-day EMA / Low Nov 21
• SUP 3: 0.6387 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 and a key support

The AUDUSD trend condition is bullish and the pair remains above support. The key support level to watch is 0.6640, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would highlight a bearish development and signal scope for a deeper retracement. 0.6851, the Dec 5 high, is the bull trigger. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend and open 0.6909, a Fibonacci retracement.

USDCAD TECHS: Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 1.3855 High Oct 21 - Nov 16 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.3808 High Nov 3 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3751 High Nov 4
• RES 1: 1.3700 High Dec 7
• PRICE: 1.3620 @ 07:55 GMT Dec 13
• SUP 1: 1.3493/3385 Former trendline resistance / Low Dec 5
• SUP 2: 1.3317/3226 Low Nov 24/25 / Low Nov 15 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally
• SUP 4: 1.3139 Low Sep 14

USDCAD continues to consolidate and is trading closer to its recent highs as the pair holds on to its latest gains. The short-term outlook is bullish. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of trendline resistance drawn from the Oct-13 high. The trendline intersects at 1.3493 and represents support. Attention is on 1.3751 next, the Nov 4 high and 1.3808, the Nov 3 high. The latter is a key resistance and a break would strengthen bullish conditions.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H3) Pullback Still Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 144.46 1.50 proj of the Oct 21 - 28 - Nov 8 price swing
• RES 3: 143.68 1.382 proj of the Oct 21 - 28 - Nov 8 price swing
• RES 2: 143.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 141.94/142.91 High Dec 9 / 7 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 140.14 @ 05:05 GMT Dec 13
• SUP 1: 139.96 Low Dec 12
• SUP 2: 139.62 Low Nov 29
• SUP 3: 136.13 Low Nov 28 and a key short-term support
• SUP 4: 138.34 Low Nov 18

The Bund futures trend direction is up and the latest pullback is considered corrective - for now. Resistance at 141.94, the Nov 24 high, has recently been breached and moving average studies have crossed, to highlight a bull mode condition. This signals a stronger reversal. A positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows also remains intact. Potential is seen for a climb to 143.00. Firm support has been defined at 139.13, the Nov 28 low.

BOBL TECHS: (H3) Corrective Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 120.765 1.50 proj of the Nov 10 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 120.568 1.382 proj of the Nov 10 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 120.324 1.236 proj of the Nov 10 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 119.580/120.150 High Dec 9 / 6 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 118.670 @ 05:12 GMT Dec 13
• SUP 1: 118.610 Low Dec 12
• SUP 2: 118.690 Low Nov 30
• SUP 3: 118.260 Low Nov 28 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 118.170 Low Nov 16

Bobl futures traded lower Monday. The trend condition remains bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective - for now. Moving average studies have crossed, to highlight a bull mode condition. This signals a stronger reversal. The print above 120.130 last week, Dec 2 high, signals a continuation of the uptrend and opens 120.324, a Fibonacci projection. Key support to watch is at 118.260, the Nov 28 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H3) Watching Support

• RES 4: 107.023 1.764 proj of the Nov 1 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 107.000 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 106.920 1.50 proj of the Nov 1 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 106.665/875 High Dec 9 / 2 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 106.390 @ 05:28 GMT Dec 13
• SUP 1: 106.370 Low Dec 12
• SUP 2: 106.335 Low Nov 28 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 106.310 Low Nov 11
• SUP 4: 106.215 Low Nov 9

Schatz futures drifted lower Monday to extend the latest pullback. The contract remains above support at the Nov 28 low of 106.335. The short-term outlook is bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. 106.335 marks a key short-term support and if breached would undermine the recent bullish theme. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on 106.875, the Dec 2 high and a bull trigger. A break of 106.875 resumes the recent uptrend.

GILT TECHS: (H3) Trend Needle Points North Despite Pullback

• RES 4: 109.47 High Aug 31 (cont)
• RES 3: 108.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 107.06 High Nov 24 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 106.95 High Dec 2
• PRICE: 105.02 @ Close Dec 12
• SUP 1: 104.79 Low Nov 30
• SUP 2: 103.54 Low Nov 21 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 103.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 102.77 Low Nov 10 (cont)

Gilt futures traded lower Monday but price remains inside the recent range. Trend conditions are bullish. Recent fresh cycle highs maintain the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and moving average studies highlight a bull mode set-up. The focus is on a climb to 108.00. Key short-term support lies at 103.54, the Nov 21 low. The bull trigger is 107.06, the Nov 24 high.

BTP TECHS: (H3) Bull Cycle Still In Play Despite Latest Pullback

• RES 4: 121.35 1.382 proj of the Oct 21 - 27 - Nov 8 price swing
• RES 3: 120.09 1.236 proj of the Oct 21 - 27 - Nov 8 price swing
• RES 2: 119.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 118.96 High Dec 7 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 116.52 @ Close Dec 12
• SUP 1: 116.21 Low Dec 9
• SUP 2: 115.01 Low Nov 28 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 114.49 Low Nov 17
• SUP 4: 113.77 Low Nov 15

BTP futures trend signals remain bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective - for now. The contract did trade higher last week and breached 118.12, the Dec 2 high. This reinforces short-term bullish conditions and maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on a climb towards the 120.00 handle. On the downside, key support short-term to watch, has been defined at 115.01, the Nov 28 low.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H3) Remains Above Support

• RES 4: 116-12 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 115-26 2.00 proj of the Oct 21 - 27 - Nov 3 price swing
• RES 2: 115-14 50% Aug - Oct Downleg
• RES 1: 115-06+ High Dec 7 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 114-05 @ 16:14 GMT Dec 12
• SUP 1: 113-21+/113-00 Low Dec 2 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 112-11+ Low Nov 21 and a key short-term support
• SUP 3: 112-05+ Low Nov 14
• SUP 4: 110-22 Low Nov 10

Treasury futures traded lower Friday but the contract is finding support today. Price remains below 115-06+, Dec 7 high and the next bull trigger. The outlook remains bullish following recent gains that have confirmed an extension of the trend sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A break higher would open 115-14, 50% of the Aug - Oct downleg on the continuation contract. Support to watch is at the 50-day EMA, at 113-00.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z2) Watching Support At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4250.00 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 3: 4230.50 High Feb 10 (cont)
• RES 2: 4132.60 76.4/% of the Nov ‘21 - Mar ‘22 bear leg (cont)
• RES 1: 4021.00/4049.50 High Dec 1 / High Feb 23 (cont)
• PRICE: 3941.00 @ 06:16 GMT Dec 13
• SUP 1: 3903.30/3840.00 20-day EMA / Low Nov 17
• SUP 2: 3810.00 High Aug 17
• SUP 3: 3776.90 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 3697.00 Low Nov 10

EUROSTOXX 50 futures are consolidating. Trend conditions are bullish and the recent pullback is considered corrective. Recent high prints confirmed an extension of the uptrend that started in early October and this maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The recent break of 3810.00, Aug 17 high, has also strengthened the case for bulls. The focus is on 4049.50, Feb 23 high (cont). Support to watch is 3903.30, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P (H3): Trading Closer To Its Recent Lows

• RES 4: 4250.00 High Aug 26
• RES 3: 4194.25 High Sep 13 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 4164.94 76.4% retracement of the Aug 16 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 1: 4142.50 High Dec 1 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4023.75 @ 06:52 GMT Dec 13
• SUP 1: 3953.99 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 3782.750 Low Nov 9
• SUP 3: 3735.00 Low Nov 3
• SUP 4: 3670.00 Low Oct 21

S&P E-Minis traded higher Monday but for now price remains closer to its recent lows. The recent move down is considered corrective. The uptrend that started on Oct 13 remains intact, however, attention is on support at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 3953.99. A clear break of this EMA would threaten bullish conditions and suggest potential for a deeper reversal. The bull trigger, to resume recent bullish activity, is at 4142.50.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (G3) Recovers From Recent Lows

• RES 4: $91.63 - High Nov 17
• RES 3: $86.84/89.37 - 50-day EMA / High Dec 1
• RES 2: $83.33 - 20-day EMA
• RES 1: $80.81 - Low Nov 28
• PRICE: $79.15 @ 07:01 GMT Dec 13
• SUP 1: $75.11 - Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $72.33 - 1.00 proj of the Nov 7 - 28 - Dec 1 price swing
• SUP 3: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $68.31 - 1.236 proj of the Nov 7 - 28 - Dec 1 price swing

The trend condition in Brent futures remains bearish following the recovery Monday. It is possible that a short-term correction will result in an extension higher near-term. A recovery would allow an oversold trend reading to unwind. The next resistance is at $80.81, the Nov 28 low. On the downside, last Friday’s low of $75.11 is the bear trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the recent downtrend.

WTI TECHS: (F3) Corrective Phase

• RES 4: $89.20 - High Nov 11
• RES 3: $86.90 - High Nov 16
• RES 2: $81.40 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $75.44/77.74 - High Dec 8 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $74.28 @ 07:12 GMT Dec 13
• SUP 1: $70.08 - Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $68.86 - 1.236 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing
• SUP 3: $66.06 - 1.382 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing
• SUP 4: $63.80 - 1.50 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing

Trend conditions in WTI futures remain bearish, however, the latest recovery highlights the start of a possible corrective cycle. A continuation higher would allow an oversold trend reading to unwind, ahead of a resumption of the downtrend. The next resistance is at $77.74, the 20-day EMA. On the downside, the bear trigger lies at $70.08, the Dec 9 low. A break would resume the downtrend.

GOLD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: $1909.8 - High May 5
• RES 3: $1842.7 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 2: $1833.0 - High Jun 29
• RES 1: $1807.9/10.0 - High Aug 10 and key resistance / High Dec 5
• PRICE: $1787.5 @ 07:14 GMT Dec 13
• SUP 1: $1763.7 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1729.0 - Low Nov 23 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: $1702.3 - Low Nov 9
• SUP 4: $1664.8 - Low Sep 8

Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and recent pullbacks appear to be a correction. A fresh trend high on Dec 5 reinforced a bullish theme and price has recently breached $1786.5, the Nov 15 high and a bull trigger, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. $1800.0 has been cleared and sights are on $1807.9, the Aug 10 high that has been pierced. A clear break would be bullish. Key trend support is at $1729.0, the Nov 23 low.

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Price Sequence

• RES 4: $25.293 - High Apr 20
• RES 3: $24.729 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 2: $24.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $23.683 - High Dec 12 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $23.389 @ 07:58 GMT Dec 13
• SUP 1: $22.025 - Low Dec 6 and a key short-term support
• SUP 2: $21.098/20.585 - 50-day EMA / Low Nov 21 and key support
• SUP 3: $19.416 - Low Nov 4
• SUP 4: $18.835 - Low Nov 3

The trend outlook in Silver remains bullish and the metal traded higher last week. The print on Friday above $23.517, Dec 5 high, highlights a continuation of the bull cycle and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This paves the way for a move towards the $24.00 handle. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at $22.025, the Dec 6 low.