MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold Trendline Break is Important Development

Price Signal Summary - Trendline Break is Important Development for Gold

• S&P E-Minis traded higher yesterday before finding resistance at the day high. The climb reinforces short-term bullish conditions and the extension maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. EUROSTOXX 50 is consolidating but trend conditions remain bullish and price remains closer to its recent highs. The contract has recently cleared the 76.4% retracement of the Jun 6 - Jul 5 downleg, at 3722.40.
• EURUSD traded higher this week and cleared resistance at 1.0294, the Aug 2 high. The 50-day EMA has been pierced. Price has also traded briefly above the bear channel top, currently at 1.0335. EURGBP is unchanged and holding on to the bulk of its gains since bouncing off 0.8340, the Aug 2 low. The broader outlook remains bearish though and the recent move higher is considered corrective. EURJPY remains below Wednesday’s high of 138.40 and below the 50-day EMA. The recovery from 133.40, Aug 2 low, is likely a correction. Moving average studies continue to highlight a downtrend and the 50-day EMA, at 138.40, is a firm resistance.
• Gold maintains a firmer tone and traded higher Wednesday, breaching trendline resistance at $1794.6. The trendline is drawn from the Mar 8 high and the break represents an important technical breach plus highlights a stronger reversal of the 5-month downtrend. WTI futures traded higher Thursday and price cleared resistance at $92.65, the Aug 9 high. The break cancels a recent bearish doji pattern and suggests scope for a stronger short-term recovery.
• Bund futures traded lower Thursday. The latest retracement is still considered corrective and the short-term trend direction is up. Moving average studies are in a bull mode condition and the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows is intact. Gilt futures traded lower Thursday and in the process managed to break support 116.79, trendline support drawn from the Jun 16 low. The current pullback is still considered corrective and the trend outlook remains bullish.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Channel Resistance Still Intact

• RES 4: 1.0536 High Jun 29
• RES 3: 1.0488 High Jun 30
• RES 2: 1.0449 High Jul 5
• RES 1: 1.0335/68 Channel top from Feb 10 high / High Aug 10
• PRICE: 1.0316 @ 06:09 BST Aug 12
• SUP 1: 1.0202/0123 Low Aug 10 / 3
• SUP 2: 1.0097 Low Jul 27 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 1.0064/0.9952 Low Jul 18 / 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.9944 1.618 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing

EURUSD traded higher this week and cleared resistance at 1.0294, the Aug 2 high. The 50-day EMA has been pierced. Price has also traded briefly above the bear channel top, currently at 1.0335. This remains a key resistance and a clear break would strengthen bullish conditions. Note that a deeper pullback would highlight bearish threat instead, and would signal a reversal lower inside the channel. Watch support at 1.0123, Aug 3 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bullish Focus For Now

• RES 4: 1.2518 High Jun 6
• RES 3: 1.2406 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2332 High Jun 27
• RES 1: 1.2293 High Aug 01
• PRICE: 1.2193 @ 06:24 BST Aug 12
• SUP 1: 1.2004 Low Aug 5
• SUP 2: 1.1961 Low Jul 25
• SUP 3: 1.1890/1760 Low Jul 21 / Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.1673 1.00 proj of the May 27 - Jun 14 - 16 price swing

GBPUSD is holding on to the bulk of this week’s gains. The recovery reinforces a bullish theme and attention is on resistance at 1.2293, the Aug 1 high. A break would signal scope for an extension higher and open 1.2332, the Jun 27 high. Potential is also seen for a climb towards 1.2406, the Jun 16 high and the next key key resistance. Initial support to watch is unchanged at 1.2004, Aug 5 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 0.8627 High Jul 4
• RES 3: 0.8585 High Jul 21 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8525 High Jul 25
• RES 1: 0.8474 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8458 @ 06:35 BST Aug 12
• SUP 1: 0.8410/8340 Low Aug 8 / 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8313 Low Apr 22
• SUP 3: 0.8246 2.0% 10-dma envelope and low Apr 14
• SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 and a key support

EURGBP is unchanged and holding on to the bulk of its gains since bouncing off 0.8340, the Aug 2 low. The broader outlook remains bearish though and the recent move higher is considered corrective. Price action since mid-June has established a sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are in a bear mode set-up too. A resumption of weakness would open 0.8313, Apr 22 low. Initial firm resistance is 0.8474, the 50-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Bearish Threat Still Present

• RES 4: 137.27 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Aug 2 downleg
• RES 3: 136.58 High Jul 28
• RES 2: 135.96 61.8% retracement of the Jul 14 - Aug 2 downleg
• RES 1: 1.34.05/35.58 50-day EMA / High Aug 8
• PRICE: 133.12 @ 06:42 BST Aug 12
• SUP 1: 131.74 Low Aug 11
• SUP 2: 130.41/130.00 Low Aug 2 / Round number support
• SUP 3: 129.51 Low Jun 2
• SUP 4: 128.64 Low Jun 1

USDJPY traded sharply lower Wednesday. This highlights a possible reversal of the recent correction between Aug 2 - 8. A bearish theme remains in place following the Jul 28 bull channel breakout. The channel is drawn from the Mar 4 low and the break signalled a reversal. A resumption of weakness would expose 130.41, the Aug 2 low and the bear trigger. Firm resistance has been defined at 135.58, the Aug 8 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 140.48 Trendline drawn from the Jun 28 high
• RES 3: 140.07 High Jul 25
• RES 2: 139.41 High Jul 28
• RES 1: 138.40 50-day EMA and high Aug 10
• PRICE: 137.36 @ 06:49 BST Aug 12
• SUP 1: 135.81 Low Aug 5
• SUP 2: 134.84/133.40 Low Aug 3 / 2 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 132.66 Low May 12 and a key support
• SUP 4: 131.99 61.8% retracement of the Mar 7 - Jun 28 bull leg

EURJPY remains below Wednesday’s high of 138.40 and below the 50-day EMA. The recovery from 133.40, Aug 2 low, is likely a correction. Moving average studies continue to highlight a downtrend and the 50-day EMA, at 138.40, is a firm resistance. A reversal lower would refocus attention on the 133.40 bear trigger. Clearance of the 50-day EMA would instead suggest scope for a stronger recovery.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 0.7283 High Jun 3 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.7246 High Jun 7
• RES 2: 0.7166 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 1: 0.7141 76.4% retracement of the Jun 3 - Jul 14 downleg
• PRICE: 0.7121 @ 07:05 BST Aug 12
• SUP 1: 0.6965/6870 20-day EMA / Low Aug 5
• SUP 2: 0.6786 Low Jul 18
• SUP 3: 0.6682 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6647 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing

AUDUSD rallied further Thursday, extending this week’s bull cycle. The break of 0.7047, Aug 1 high, confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Jul 14 and sets the scene for a continuation higher. The break has also established a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on a climb toward 0.7141, a Fibonacci retracement. Support to watch is at 0.6870, Aug 5 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 1.3224 High Jul 14 and key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3135 High Jul 15
• RES 2: 1.3038/56 High Jul 18 / 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 1: 1.2863/2985 20-day EMA / High Aug 5
• PRICE: 1.2747 @ 08:04 BST Aug 12
• SUP 1: 1.2744 200-dma
• SUP 2: 1.2728 Low Aug 11
• SUP 3: 1.2685 76.4% retracement of the Jun 8 - Jul 14 upleg
• SUP 4: 1.2587 2.0% 10-dma envelope

USDCAD extended losses Thursday, printing a new multi-month low in the process. This weakness marks an extension of the current bear leg. Support at 1.2767, the Aug 1 low, has been cleared and the move lower paves the way for a continuation lower. Attention is on a clean close below 1.2744, the 200-dma and 1.2685, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, a breach of 1.2985, the Aug 5 high is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U2) Correction Lower Extends

• RES 4: 161.38 2.00 projection of the Jun 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 160.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 159.79 High Apr 4 (cont)
• RES 1: 158.33/159.70 High Aug 3 / 2 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 155.60 @ 05:10 BST Aug 12
• SUP 1: 154.75 Low Jul 28
• SUP 2: 153.58 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 149.69 Low Jul 21 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 148.24 Low Jul 1

Bund futures traded lower Thursday. The latest retracement is still considered corrective and the short-term trend direction is up. Moving average studies are in a bull mode condition and the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows is intact. A resumption of gains would open 159.79, Apr 4 high (cont). Key trend support has been defined at 149.69, Jul 21 low. A break is required to signal a potential top. Initial support is 154.75.

BOBL TECHS: (U2) Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 129.950 2.00 projection of the Jun 16 -24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 129.001 1.764 projection of the Jun 16 -24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 128.060/128.760 High Aug 3 / 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 127.580 High Aug 10
• PRICE: 126.950 @ 05:20 BST Aug 12
• SUP 1: 126.450 Low Jul 28
• SUP 2: 126.001 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 125.150 Low Jul 22
• SUP 4: 124.030 Low Jul 21 and a reversal trigger

Bobl futures remain in consolidation mode. The short-term trend is up and the recent pullback is considered corrective. Recent high prints confirmed a resumption of the trend and this maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A resumption of gains would open 129.001 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is 124.030, the Jul 21 low. A break would signal a reversal. Initial firm support is 126.450, Jul 28 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U2) Still In Consolidation Mode

• RES 4: 110.855 High Apr 4 (cont)
• RES 3: 110.500 High May 26 (cont)
• RES 2: 110.412 1.50 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 110.100/380 High Aug 3 / Aug 2 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 109.805 @ 05:27 BST Aug 12
• SUP 1: 109.670 Low Jul 28
• SUP 2: 109.621 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 109.350 Low Jul 22
• SUP 4: 108.950 Low Jul 21 and a key support

Schatz futures are still in consolidation mode and remain below recent highs. The retracement from the Aug 2 high is likely a correction and trend conditions still appear bullish. A fresh high on Aug 2, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 110.412 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is unchanged at 108.950, Jul 21 low. Initial firm support is at 109.670.

GILT TECHS: (U2) Trades Through Trendline Support

• RES 4: 121.07 High May 12 (cont)
• RES 3: 120.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 118.88/119.84 High Aug 4 / 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 118.10 High Aug 10
• PRICE: 116.42 @ Close Aug 10
• SUP 1: 116.04 38.2% retracement of the Jun 16 - Aug 2 upleg
• SUP 2: 114.86 50.0% retracement of the Jun 16 - Aug 2 upleg
• SUP 3: 114.08 Low Jul 8 and a key support
• SUP 4: 113.69 61.8% retracement of the Jun 16 - Aug 2 upleg

Gilt futures traded lower Thursday and in the process managed to break support 116.79, trendline support drawn from the Jun 16 low. The current pullback is still considered corrective and the trend outlook remains bullish. A deeper retracement though would expose 116.04 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial resistance has been defined at 118.10, the Aug 10 high. A break would highlight a possible bullish reversal.

BTP TECHS: (U2) Consolidation Appears To Be A Bull Flag

• RES 4: 131.61 High Apr 29 (cont)
• RES 3: 131.24 High May 12 (cont)
• RES 2: 130.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 129.36 High Aug 11
• PRICE: 127.84 @ Close Aug 11
• SUP 1: 126.83/125.38 Low Aug 3 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 122.81/119.57 Low Jul 28 / Low Jul 21 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: 118.60 Low Jun 22
• SUP 4: 115.72 Low Jun 16

The BTP futures trend condition remains bullish. The current consolidation appears to be a bull flag formation, reinforcing the trend condition. The break on Jul 29 of key resistance at 126.41, Jul 1 high, established a broader bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows - the definition of an uptrend. Attention is on the 130.00 handle next. Initial firm support lies at 125.38, the 50-day EMA.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U2) Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 3902.00 High Mar 29 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 3855.00 High Apr 21
• RES 2: 3840.00 High Jun 6 and key resistance
• RES 1: 3811.00 High Jun 8
• PRICE: 3750.00 @ 05:35 BST Aug 12
• SUP 1: 3658.00 Low Aug 2
• SUP 2: 3618.80/3553.00 50-day EMA / Low Jul 26
• SUP 3: 3467.00 Low Jul 18 / 19
• SUP 4: 3343.00 Low Jul 5 and the bear trigger

EUROSTOXX 50 is consolidating but trend conditions remain bullish and price remains closer to its recent highs. The contract has recently cleared the 76.4% retracement of the Jun 6 - Jul 5 downleg, at 3722.40. The break strengthens the case for bulls and opens 3811.00 next, Jun 8 high, ahead of 3840.00, Jun 6 high. Key support and the bear trigger is at 3343.00, the Jul 5 low. Initial firm support to watch is 3613.30, the 50-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P (U2): Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 4345.75 2.00 proj of the Jun 17 - 28 - Jul 14 price swing
• RES 3: 4306.50 High May 4
• RES 2: 4272.35 1.764 proj of the Jun 17 - 28 - Jul 14 price swing
• RES 1: 4260.50 High Aug 11
• PRICE: 4216.50 @ 06:49 BST Aug 12
• SUP 1: 4080.50 Low Aug 2
• SUP 2: 4023.83/3913.25 50-day EMA / Low Jul 26 and a key support
• SUP 3: 3820.25 Low Jul 18
• SUP 4: 3723.75 Low Jul 14

S&P E-Minis traded higher yesterday before finding resistance at the day high. The climb reinforces short-term bullish conditions and the extension maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 4272.35 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial trend support is at 4080.50, the Aug 2 low. The 50-day EMA intersects at 4023.83 - a key support.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V2) Clears The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: $112.92 - High Jun 29
• RES 3: $110.72 - High Jul 5
• RES 2: $106.50 - High Jul 29 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $100.17/101.79 - High Aug 11 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $99.09 @ 06:45 BST Aug 12
• SUP 1: $92.78 - Low Aug 5
• SUP 2: $91.22 - Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $90.00 - Round number support
• SUP 4: $88.31 - Low Mar 9 and a key support

Brent futures traded higher Thursday and cleared Tuesday's high of $98.40. This cancels a recent doji candle that signalled a possible bearish reversal. The price has also breached the 20-day EMA. This signals potential for a stronger recovery near-term, potentially towards the 50-day EMA at $101.70. On the downside, a resumption of weakness would highlight a resumption of the recent bear leg and open $91.22, Jul 14 low.

WTI TECHS: (U2) Bounce Extends

• RES 4: $111.14 - High Jun 29
• RES 3: $108.28 - High Jul 5
• RES 2: $101.88 - High Jul 29 and key resistance
• RES 1: $95.05/97.97 - High Aug 10 / 50-day EMA values
• PRICE: $94.11 @ 07:11 BST Aug 12
• SUP 1: $87.01 - Low Aug 5
• SUP 2: $85.37 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: $83.51 - 1.50 projection of the Jun 8 - 22 - 29 price swing
• SUP 4: $81.34 - 1.618 projection of the Jun 8 - 22 - 29 price swing

WTI futures traded higher Thursday and price cleared resistance at $92.65, the Aug 9 high. The break cancels a recent bearish doji pattern and suggests scope for a stronger short-term recovery. The 20-day EMA, at $94.40, has also been breached and this has exposed the 50-day EMA at $97.97. On the downside, the bear trigger is at $87.01, the Aug 5 low. A breach would resume bearish activity.

GOLD TECHS: Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: $1875 7 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar 8 - Jul 21 bear leg
• RES 3: $1857.6 - High Jun 16
• RES 2: $1829.8 - 38.2% retracement of the Mar 8 - Jul 21 bear leg
• RES 1: $1807.9 - High Aug 10 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1792.2 @ 07:11 BST Aug 12
• SUP 1: $1754.4 - Low Aug 3 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: $1711.7/1681.0 - Low Jul 27 / 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $1680.5 - 1.764 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 4: $1676.9 - Low Mar 8 2021

Gold maintains a firmer tone and traded higher Wednesday, breaching trendline resistance at $1794.6. The trendline is drawn from the Mar 8 high and the break represents an important technical breach plus highlights a stronger reversal of the 5-month downtrend. However, price has pulled back from Wednesday’s high and any stronger reversal would threaten the bullish theme. Watch support at $1754.4 the Aug 3 low. The bull trigger is $1807.9.

SILVER TECHS: Bull Cycle Intact

• RES 4: $21.540 - High Jun 27
• RES 3: $21.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $21.540 - High Jun 27
• RES 1: $20.844 - High Aug 10
• PRICE: $20.423 @ 08:06 BST Aug 12
• SUP 1: $19.551/062 - Low Aug 5 / Low Jul 28
• SUP 2: $18.146/18.000 - Low Jul 14 / Round number support
• SUP 3: $17.312 - 3.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 4: $16.955 - Low Jun 15 2020

Silver remains bullish. Monday’s rally resulted in a break of resistance at $20.508, the Aug 2 high. This confirmed a resumption of the bull leg that started Jul 14 and the metal has established a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart. The focus is on $21.540, Jun 27 high. On the downside, initial key support has been defined at $19.551, the Aug 5 low.