MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold Vulnerable After Clearing Support

Price Signal Summary – Gold Vulnerable After Clearing Support

• S&P E-Minis remain in a downtrend despite the recent recovery from 4136.75, Apr 26 low. This week’s lows reinforced bearish conditions and confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle. This has opened 4129.50, the Mar 15 low. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain in a bear mode and recent gains are considered corrective. A bearish theme follows a reversal from the Apr 21 high of 3883.00. Price remains below the 50-day EMA and Monday’s move lower resulted in a break of support at 3684.00, the Apr 12 low.
• EURUSD remains vulnerable following this week’s selling pressure. The pair has traded below 1.0494, the Feb 22 2017 low. The move to fresh trend lows, confirms an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs, that defines a downtrend. GBPUSD remains soft following this week’s acceleration of the downtrend. The pair has cleared 1.2974, Apr 13 low and 1.2676, last printed in September 2020. The trend remains oversold: the 14d RSI is now at 18 - the lowest point since March 2020 and the initial wave of lockdowns that followed COVID. This week’s pullback in EURJPY is considered corrective. The cross remains above the more important support area around the 50-day EMA. This average intersects at 134.15 and is just below an important support at 134.30, Apr 5 low.
• Gold remains vulnerable despite the recovery from yesterday’s low. The yellow metal has recently cleared support at the 50-day EMA. Furthermore, the pullback from the $1998.4 high (Apr 18), continues to highlight a bearish threat. WTI futures continue to recover from Monday’s low of $95.28. A triangle pattern has appeared on the daily chart. This is a bearish pattern and a break of $95.28 would confirm a resumption of weakness and expose $92.60, Apr 11 low, and $90.37, the Mar 15 low and a key bear trigger.
• Bund futures traded lower Thursday. The recent bounce is considered corrective. A bearish theme dominates and fresh cycle lows recently, reinforce this theme. The move lower confirmed an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The broader trend condition in Gilt futures remains bearish. This week’s breach of the 20-day EMA and a trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 1 high, appeared to be a bullish development.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 1.1076 High Apr 1
• RES 3: 1.0948 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.0790/0936 20-day EMA / High Apr 21
• RES 1: 1.0655/0758 High Apr 27 / Low Apr 14 - recent breakout level
• PRICE: 1.0521 @ 06:09 BST Apr 29
• SUP 1: 1.0472/54 Low Apr 28 / Low Jan 1 2017
• SUP 2: 1.0390 Low Jan 4 2017
• SUP 3: 1.0341 Low Jan 3 2017 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0333 1.236 proj of the Feb 10 - Mar 7 - 31 price swing

EURUSD remains vulnerable following this week’s selling pressure. The pair has traded below 1.0494, the Feb 22 2017 low. The move to fresh trend lows, confirms an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs, that defines a downtrend. Further weakness is likely and the focus is on 1.0454 next, the Feb 22 2017 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.0936, the Apr 21 high. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.0758.

GBPUSD TECHS: Heavy!

• RES 4: 1.3090/3147 High Apr 21 / High Apr 14
• RES 3: 1.2974 Low Apr 13 and a recent breakout level
• RES 2: 1.2772/2896 High Apr 26 / 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.2602 High Apr 27
• PRICE: 1.2507 @ 06:15 BST Apr 29
• SUP 1: 1.2412 Low Apr 28
• SUP 2: 1.2375 2.382 proj of the Mar 23 - Apr 13 - 14 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2252 Low Jun 29 2020
• SUP 4: 1.2162 Low May 22 2020

GBPUSD remains soft following this week’s acceleration of the downtrend. The pair has cleared 1.2974, Apr 13 low and 1.2676, last printed in September 2020. The trend remains oversold: the 14d RSI is now at 18 - the lowest point since March 2020 and the initial wave of lockdowns that followed COVID. A reversal pattern is still required to signal a short-term reversal. The focus is 1.2423 next, a Fibonacci projection.

EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 0.8600 High Dec 8 2021
• RES 3: 0.8553 High Dec 14 2020
• RES 2: 0.8512/28 High Mar 31 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 0.8468 High Apr 27
• PRICE: 0.8416 @ 06:21 BST Apr 29
• SUP 1: 0.8383/8367 Low Apr 28 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8313 Low Apr 22
• SUP 3: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger

EURGBP is trading closer to its recent highs and maintains a firmer tone. The recent rally resulted in a break of resistance at 0.8405, the Apr 11 high and a key short-term resistance. The break of this level still highlights a bullish development and has also resulted in a move above 0.8435, the Apr 4 high. An extension would open 0.8512. Initial firm support to watch lies at 0.8367, the 50-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Bullish Trend Conditions

• RES 4: 133.11 High Apr 4 2002
• RES 3: 132.39 High Apr 15 2002
• RES 2: 131.96 1.00 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 131.25 High Apr 28
• PRICE: 130.46 @ 06:28 BST Apr 29
• SUP 1: 128.34/126.95 Low Apr 28 / Low Apr 27 and a key support
• SUP 2: 126.36 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 125.09 Low Apr 14
• SUP 4: 124.01 Low Apr 11

USDJPY traded higher Thursday to confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. The pair has cleared the recent trend high of 129.40 (Apr 20) and a chart point at 129.44, the 0.764 projection of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing. The psychological 130.00 handle has also been cleared and (briefly) 131.00, strengthening bullish conditions. The focus is on 131.96 next, a Fibonacci projection. 126.95 represents a key short-term support.

EURJPY TECHS: Key Support Zone Intact

• RES 4: 141.63 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 141.06 High Jun 4 2015 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 140.93 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 28 - Apr 8 price swing
• RES 1: 138.00/140.00 High Apr 28 / High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 137.55 @ 06:38 BST Apr 29
• SUP 1: 134.79/75 Low Apr 27 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 2: 134.30 Low Apr 5 and a key support
• SUP 3: 134.15 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 132.95 Low Mar 24

This week’s pullback in EURJPY is considered corrective. The cross remains above the more important support area around the 50-day EMA. This average intersects at 134.15 and is just below an important support at 134.30, Apr 5 low. While this zone holds, the broader uptrend remains intact and yesterday’s climb is a positive development. Initial resistance is at 138.00, Thursday’s high. The bull trigger is at 140.00, Apr 21 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 0.7493 Apr 12 high and key intraday resistance
• RES 3: 0.7458 High Apr 20/21
• RES 2: 0.7331 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.7261 High Apr 25
• PRICE: 0.7150 @ 06:42 BST Apr 29
• SUP 1: 0.7055 Low Apr 28
• SUP 2: 0.6985 Low Jan 31
• SUP 3: 0.6968 Low Jan 28 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6921 Low Jul 14 2020

AUDUSD remains bearish and traded lower again Thursday. The pair recently cleared support at 0.7165, Mar 15 low and a key short-term bear trigger. The break reinforces current bearish conditions and Thursday’s move lower resulted in a breach of 0.7095, the Feb 24 low. This opens 0.7052 next, the Feb 4 low. Initial resistance is seen at Monday’s intraday high of 0.7261. Firmer resistance however is set at 0.7331, the 50-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 1.2964 High Dec 20 2021
• RES 3: 1.2936 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.2901 High Mar 8
• RES 1: 1.2880 High Apr 28
• PRICE: 1.2745 @ 06:56 BST Apr 29
• SUP 1: 1.2648 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2568 Low Apr 22
• SUP 3: 1.2459 Low Apr 21
• SUP 4: 1.2403 Low Apr 5 and a key support

USDCAD remains bullish and added to the week’s gains Thursday. However, the pullback from 1.2880, Thursday’s high, highlights potential for a short-term correction. A key near-term support lies at 1.2648, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this support is required to suggest scope for a deeper pullback. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on 1.2901, the Mar 8 high. This is also the bull trigger.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M2) Remains Below Resistance

• RES 4: 159.06 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 157.87 High Apr 7
• RES 2: 156.17 High Apr 14 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 156.01 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 154.36 @ 05:05 BST Apr 29
• SUP 1: 153.05/153.00 Low Apr 22 / Round number support
• SUP 2: 152.65 Low Sep 1 2015 (cont)
• SUP 3: 151.99 0.618 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 150.15 0.764 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing

Bunds futures traded lower Thursday. The recent bounce is considered corrective. A bearish theme dominates and fresh cycle lows recently, reinforce this theme. The move lower confirmed an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies remain in a bear mode too. The focus is on 153.00 next ahead of 152.65, the Sep 1 2015 low (cont). Firm resistance is at 156.17.

BOBL TECHS: (M2) Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 129.462 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 129.350 High Apr 4 and a reversal point
• RES 2: 128.830 High Apr 7
• RES 1: 128.310 High Apr 8/28 and a key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 127.460 @ 05:12 BST Apr 29
• SUP 1: 126.660 Low Apr 22 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 126.480 Low Jun 5 2014 (cont)
• SUP 3: 126.196 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 126.00 Round number support

The climb this week in Bobl futures is considered corrective and yesterday’s move lower signals the end of the correction. Fresh cycle lows last week reinforce the primary downtrend, maintaining the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving averages continue to point south. A resumption of weakness would open 126.480 next, Jun 5 2014 low (cont). Key S/T trend resistance is at 128.310, the Apr 14/28 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M2) Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 110.935 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 110.855 High Apr 4
• RES 2: 110.660 High Apr 14 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 110.552 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 110.275 @ 04:46 BST Apr 29
• SUP 1: 110.060 Low Apr 22 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 110.000 Round number support
• SUP 3: 109.983 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 30 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 109.777 0.618 proj of the Mar 7 - 30 - Apr 4 price swing

Schatz futures remain in a downtrend and this week’s recovery is likely a correction. The contract traded to fresh cycle lows recently, confirming a resumption of the primary downtrend and an extension of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies remain in a bear mode. The focus is on 109.983 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance at 110.660, the Apr 14 high, remains intact.

GILT TECHS: (M2) Fails To Hold On To Recent Highs

• RES 4: 122.35 High Apr 4
• RES 3: 120.96 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 120.47 High Apr 8
• RES 1: 119.79 High Apr 25 and a bull trigger
• PRICE: 118.85 @ Close Apr 28
• SUP 1: 118.27/117.22 Low Apr 25 / Low Apr 22 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 117.04 0.764 proj of the Mar 1 - 28 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 116.35 Low Dec 30 2015
• SUP 4: 115.40 1.00 proj of the Mar 1 - 28 - Apr 4 price swing

The broader trend condition in Gilt futures remains bearish. This week’s breach of the 20-day EMA and a trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 1 high, appeared to be a bullish development. Price has instead failed to hold on to recent highs, signalling the end of the recent correction. Resistance has been defined at 119.79, the Apr 26 high where a break is required to reinstate a bullish theme. An extension lower would expose the 117.22 bear trigger.

BTP TECHS: (M2) Trend Conditions Remain Bearish

• RES 4: 137.47 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 136.12 High Apr 7
• RES 2: 134.13/135.23 20-day EMA / High Apr 14
• RES 1: 133.53 High Apr 28
• PRICE: 130.82 @ Close Apr 28
• SUP 1: 130.68 Low Apr 28
• SUP 2: 130.24 0.764 proj of the Mar 1 - 29 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 130.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 4: 127.63 1.00 proj of the Mar 1 - 29 - 31 price swing

The trend condition in BTP futures remains bearish and yesterday’s sell-off saw price trade to a fresh cycle. This confirms a continuation of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs, that defines a downtrend. Moving average studies are in a bear mode too. The focus is on the 130.00 handle next and a firm short-term resistance has been defined at yesterday’s high of 133.53.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M2) Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 4132.00 High Feb 10
• RES 3: 4072.00 High Feb 16
• RES 2: 3944.00 High Mar 29 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 3806.70/3883.00 20-day EMA / High Apr 21
• PRICE: 3754.00 @ 05:36 BST Apr 29
• SUP 1: 3608.00 Low Apr 27
• SUP 2: 3551 60 61.8% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally
• SUP 3: 3523.00 Low Mar 11
• SUP 4: 3458.90 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally

EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain in a bear mode and recent gains are considered corrective. A bearish theme follows a reversal from the Apr 21 high of 3883.00. Price remains below the 50-day EMA and Monday’s move lower resulted in a break of support at 3684.00, the Apr 12 low and a bear trigger, reinforcing a bearish condition. A resumption of weakness would open 3551.60, a Fibonacci retracement. Resistance is at 3883.00, Apr 21 high.

E-MINI S&P (M2): Remains Above Tuesday’s Low

• RES 4: 4631.00 High Mar 29 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4588.75 High Apr 5
• RES 2: 4509.00 High Apr 21 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 4303.50/4355.50 High Apr 26/28 / Low Apr 18
• PRICE: 4269.50 @ 06:53 BST Apr 29
• SUP 1: 4136.75 Low Apr 26
• SUP 2: 4129.50 Low Mar 15 and a key support
• SUP 3: 4094.25 Low Feb 24 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 4063.24 1.618 proj of the Mar 29 - Apr 18 - 21 price swing

S&P E-Minis remain in a downtrend despite the recent recovery from 4136.75, Apr 26 low. This week’s lows reinforced bearish conditions and confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle. This has opened 4129.50, the Mar 15 low. Initial resistance has been defined at 4303.50, Apr 26/28 high. A break of this hurdle would signal scope for a stronger corrective bounce and expose 4355.50, the Apr 18 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M2) Triangle Pattern

• RES 4: $125.40 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 16 downleg
• RES 3: $119.74 - High Mar 24 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: $114.84 - High Apr 18 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: $109.80/112.08 - High Apr 21 / Triangle resistance
• PRICE: $108.50 @ 06:55 BST Apr 29
• SUP 1: $99.48 - Low Apr 25
• SUP 2: $97.57 - Low Apr 11
• SUP 3: $94.61 - Low Mar 16 and a key support
• SUP 4: $90.58 - Low Feb 25

Brent futures are trading higher and remain above the recent low of $99.48 (Apr 25). A bearish threat remains present though despite recent gains. The contract appears to be trading within a triangle, drawn from the Mar 16 low. This is a bearish pattern. A break below $99.48 would highlight a triangle breakout and expose $97.57, Apr 11 low, and $94.61, the Mar 16 low. Triangle resistance intersects at $112.08 today.

WTI TECHS: (M2) Triangle Highlights Bearish Threat

• RES 4: $118.13 - High Mar 9
• RES 3: $113.51/113.90 - High Mar 24 / 76.4% of Mar 7 - 15 downleg
• RES 2: $109.20 - High Apr 18
• RES 1: $106.78 - Triangle resistance drawn from the Mar 15 low
• PRICE: $105.84 @ 07:57 BST Apr 29
• SUP 1: $99.80/95.28 - Low Apr 27Low Apr 25
• SUP 2: $92.60 - Low Apr 11 and a key support
• SUP 3: $90.37 - Low Mar 15 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: $86.67 - Low Feb 25

WTI futures continue to recover from Monday’s low of $95.28. A triangle pattern has appeared on the daily chart. This is a bearish pattern and a break of $95.28 would confirm a resumption of weakness and expose $92.60, Apr 11 low, and $90.37, the Mar 15 low and a key bear trigger. Triangle resistance intersects at $106.78 ahead of a key resistance at $109.20, Apr 18 high. Clearance of these hurdles would be seen as a bullish development.

GOLD TECHS: Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: $2007.9 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - 29 downleg
• RES 3: $2001.6 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 8 - 29 downleg
• RES 2: $1998.4 - High Apr 18 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: $1932.1 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $1908.7 @ 07:17 BST Apr 29
• SUP 1: $1872.2 - Low Apr 28
• SUP 2: $1848.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Jan 28 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 3: $1821.1 - Low Feb 11
• SUP 4: $1780.4 - Low Jan 28

Gold remains vulnerable despite the recovery from yesterday’s low. The yellow metal has recently cleared support at the 50-day EMA. Furthermore, the pullback from the $1998.4 high (Apr 18), continues to highlight a bearish threat. This has been reinforced by the break Wednesday of support at $1890.2, the Mar 29 low. This opens $1848.8, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, $1932.1, the 20-day EMA is seen as a firm short-term resistance.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Theme Still Intact

• RES 4: $27.245 - High Jun 17 2021
• RES 3: $26.943 - High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $26.222 - High Apr 18 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: $24.551 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $23.438 @ 08:11 BST Apr 29
• SUP 1: $22.893 - Low Apr 28
• SUP 2: $22.863 - Low Feb 11
• SUP 3: $22.008 - Low Feb 3 and a key support
• SUP 4: $21.949 - Low Jan 7 2022

Silver remains soft following the reversal last week from the Apr 18 high of $26.222. This week’s continuation lower has reinforced bearish conditions. Support at $23.974, Mar 29 low, has been cleared and $23.173, 76.4% of the Feb 3 - Mar 8 rally, has been probed. A clear break of the latter would open $22.008, the Feb 3 low and a key support. The 50-day EMA, at $24.551, marks resistance.