MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Impulsive Gilt Sell-Off Extends
Price Signal Summary – Impulsive Gilt Sell-Off Extends
- A sharp sell-off in the S&P E-Minis contract yesterday highlights a possible short-term top. The move down has resulted in a breach of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A continuation lower would open 5811.65, a Fibonacci retracement level. A bull cycle in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact, however, the latest pullback highlights the potential start of a corrective cycle. Price has traded through the 50-day EMA, at 4898.37. A continuation lower would open 4819.33, a Fibonacci retracement.
- USDJPY remains firm and the pair is trading sharply higher today. Price continues to trade above both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The breach of these averages highlighted scope for a continuation of gains, particularly with the break above 156.75. The trend needle in AUDUSD continues to point south and this week’s fresh cycle lows and yesterday’s strong sell-off, reinforce a bear theme. The move down maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.USDCAD bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the pair once again traded sharply higher, yesterday. The recent breach of 1.4178, the Nov 26 high, confirmed resumption of the uptrend and this maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
- Gold traded lower yesterday. The move down undermines a recent bullish theme. A resumption weakness would signal scope for an extension towards the key support at $2536.9, the Nov 14 low. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position highlighting a medium-term uptrend. A bearish threat in WTI futures remains present and recent gains are - for now - considered corrective. A resumption of the bear cycle would open $65.57, the Oct 1 low, and $63.73, the Sep 10 low and key support.
- The current bearish cycle in Bund futures remains in play and the contract has traded lower this week. 133.98, 61.8% of the Nov 6 - Dec 2 bull cycle, has been pierced. A clear break of this price point would signal scope for a move towards 133.22. A strong bearish theme in Gilt futures remains in play and this week’s extension reinforces current conditions. The move down has resulted in a breach of key short-term support at 93.40, the Nov 18 low. The break of this level highlights a stronger reversal.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Bear Trigger Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 1.0937 High Nov 5 / 6 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 1.0825 High Nov 7
- RES 2: 1.0660 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.0524/0630 20-day EMA / High Dec 06
- PRICE: 1.0380 @ 06:00 GMT Dec 19
- SUP 1: 1.0344 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 1.0335 Low Nov 22 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.0311 1.382 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.0258 1.500 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
EURUSD traded sharply lower yesterday, reinforcing a bearish theme. The sell-off paves the way for a move towards key support at 1.0335, the Nov 22 low and bear trigger. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of downtrend and open 1.0311, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Initial firm resistance is at 1.0524, the 20-day EMA.
GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 1.3048 High Nov 6 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 1.2961 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.2811 High Dec 6 and a short-term bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.2729 High Dec 17
- PRICE: 1.2594 @ 06:33 GMT Dec 19
- SUP 1: 1.2563 Low Dec 18
- SUP 2: 1.2487 Low Nov 22 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3. 1.2446 Low May 9
- SUP 4: 1.2367 76.4% retracement of the Oct 4 ‘23 - Sep 26 uptrend
A move lower in GBPUSD yesterday reinforces a bearish theme. The breach of support at 1.2609, the Dec 13 low, paves the way for an extension towards key support and the bear trigger at 1.2487, the Nov 22 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance to monitor is 1.2811, the Dec 6 high.
EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Trend Structure
- RES 4: 0.8448 High Oct 31 and reversal trigger
- RES 3: 0.8376 High Nov 19 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 0.8356 High Nov 27
- RES 1: 0.8287/0.8322 20- and 50-day EMA values
- PRICE: 0.8245 @ 06:49 GMT Dec 19
- SUP 1: 0.8225 Low Dec 11
- SUP 2: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
- SUP 3: 0.8200 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.8188 1.00 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 11 - 19 price swing
EURGBP continues to trade below resistance at 0.8322, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would undermine the bear theme and signal scope for a stronger recovery. The trend direction remains down and a continuation lower would expose 0.8225, the Dec 11 low. Clearance of this level would open the major support at 0.8203, the Mar 7 ‘22 low and the lowest point of a multi-year range.
USDJPY TECHS: Clears Bull Trigger
- RES 4: 159.45 High Jul 12
- RES 3: 158.86 High Jul 16
- RES 2: 157.86 High Jul 19
- RES 1: 157.71 3.0% 10-dma envelope
- PRICE: 156.88 @ 08:33 GMT Dec 19
- SUP 1: 152.59 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 151.73 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 149.37 Low Dec 06
- SUP 4: 148.65 Low Dec 03 and the bear trigger
USDJPY remains firm and the pair is trading sharply higher today. Price continues to trade above both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The breach of these averages highlighted scope for a continuation of gains, particularly with the break above 156.75, the Nov 15 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this level confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 157.86, the Jul 19 high. Initial firm support to watch is 152.59, the 20-day EMA.
EURJPY TECHS: Clears Tuesday’s High
- RES 4: 166.10 High Nov 6
- RES 3: 165.04 High Nov 15 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 2: 164.21 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Dec 3 bear leg
- RES 1: 162.97 Intraday high
- PRICE: 162.71 @ 07:24 GMT Dec 19
- SUP 1: 159.82 Low Dec 18
- SUP 2: 158.67/157.87 Low Dec 11 / 09
- SUP 3: 156.18 Low Dec 03 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 155.15 Low Sep 16 and a key support
A bull cycle in EURJPY remains intact and today’s strong gains reinforce this theme. The cross has traded through Tuesday’s 162.48 high, to confirm a resumption of the recovery that started on Dec 3. A continuation higher would signal scope for an extension towards 164.21, the 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Dec 3 bear leg. Key short-term support has been defined at 159.82, the Dec 18 low. A break of this level is required to signal a possible reversal.
AUDUSD TECHS: Southbound
- RES 4: 0.6550 High Nov 25
- RES 3: 0.6512 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6429 High Dec 12
- RES 1: 0.6337/6413 Low Dec 11 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6235 @ 08:00 GMT Dec 19
- SUP 1: 0.6199 Intraday low
- SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
The trend needle in AUDUSD continues to point south and this week’s fresh cycle lows and yesterday’s strong sell-off, reinforce a bear theme. The move down maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. The break lower opens 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6413, the 20-day EMA.
USDCAD TECHS: Impulsive Bull Wave Extends
- RES 4: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4499 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 1: 1.4467 Intraday high
- PRICE: 1.4412 @ 08:10 GMT Dec 19
- SUP 1: 1.4301 Low Dec 18
- SUP 2: 1.4151/3998 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 1.3928 Low Nov 25 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.3822 Low Nov 6
USDCAD bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the pair once again traded sharply higher, yesterday. The recent breach of 1.4178, the Nov 26 high, confirmed resumption of the uptrend and this maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The latest rally opens 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.4151, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (H5) Bear Cycle Remains Intact
- RES 4: 137.72 High Oct 1 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 137.28 High Oct 2
- RES 2: 136.52/137.18 High Dec 6 / 2 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 135.23/136.01 20-day EMA / High Dec 12
- PRICE: 133.94 @ 05:39 GMT Dec 19
- SUP 1: 133.79 Intraday low
- SUP 2 133.62 Low Nov 22
- SUP 3: 133.22 76.4% retracement of the Nov 6 - Dec 2 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 132.95 Low Nov 18
The current bearish cycle in Bund futures remains in play and the contract has traded lower this week. 133.98, 61.8% of the Nov 6 - Dec 2 bull cycle, has been pierced. A clear break of this price point would signal scope for a move towards 133.22, the 76.4% retracement level. First key resistance to watch is 135.23, the 20-day EMA. A move above this level would signal a possible reversal.
BOBL TECHS: (H5) Bear Leg Extends
- RES 4: 119.813 2.382 proj of the Nov 6 - 12 - 18 price swing
- RES 3: 119.674 2.236 proj of the Nov 6 - 12 - 18 price swing
- RES 2: 119.280/119.480 High Dec 4 and 5 / High Dec 2
- RES 1: 118.556/119.130 20-day EMA / High Dec 11
- PRICE: 117.940 @ 05:47 GMT Dec 19
- SUP 1: 117.920 Low Dec 18
- SUP 2: 117.723 76.4% retracement of the Nov 6 - Dec 2 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 117.550 Low Nov 18
- SUP 4: 117.350 76.4% retracement of the Nov 6 - Dec 2 bull cycle
The current bear cycle in Bobl futures remains intact. Price has recently cleared the 20-day EMA signalling scope for a continuation near-term. This week’s move lower also reinforces a bear theme. An extension would open 117.723 next, a Fibonacci retracement. The first key resistance to watch is 118.556, the 20-day EMA. A break of it would highlight a possible reversal and open 119.130, the Nov 7 low.
SCHATZ TECHS: (H5) Bear Cycle Intact
- RES 4: 107.592 1.236 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - 26 price swing
- RES 3: 107.505 1.000 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - 26 price swing
- RES 2: 107.480 High Dec 2 / 3 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 107.167/365 20-day EMA / High Dec 12
- PRICE: 106.985 @ 06:28 GMT Dec 19
- SUP 1: 106.975 Low Dec 18
- SUP 2: 106.908 1.236 proj of the Dec 2 - 6 - 12 price swing
- SUP 3: 106.854 1.382 proj of the Dec 2 - 6 - 12 price swing
- SUP 4: 106.810 1.500 proj of the Dec 2 - 6 - 12 price swing
The current bear cycle in Schatz futures remains intact and the latest bear extension reinforces current conditions. The 107.00 handle has been cleared and this highlights potential for a continuation near-term. Sights are on 106.908 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 107.167, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would highlight a potential reversal.
GILT TECHS: (H5) Impulsive Sell-Off Extends
- RES 4: 94.68 20-day EMA
- RES 3: 93.64 High Dec 17
- RES 2: 93.38 High Dec 18
- RES 1: 92.58 Low Dec 18 and a gap high on the daily chart
- PRICE: 92.10 @ 08:15 GMT Dec 19
- SUP 1: 91.87 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 91.73 4.236 proj of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing
- SUP 3: 91.58 4.382 proj of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing
- SUP 4: 91.45 4.500 proj of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing
A strong bearish theme in Gilt futures remains in play and this week’s extension reinforces current conditions. The move down has resulted in a breach of key short-term support at 93.40, the Nov 18 low. The break of this level highlights a stronger reversal. Sights are on 91.73, a 4.236 projection of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing. Initial resistance is at 92.58, the Dec 18 low and a gap high on the daily chart.
BTP TECHS: (H5) Retracement Mode Extends
- RES 4: 123.83 1.764 proj of the Nov 7 - 15 - 18 price swing
- RES 3: 123.43 1.618 proj of the Nov 7 - 15 - 18 price swing
- RES 2: 122.85/123.34 High Dec 12 / 11 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 121.59 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 120.51 @ 08:20 GMT Dec 19
- SUP 1: 120.10 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 119.67 61.8% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 11 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 119.11 Low Nov 18
- SUP 4: 118.80 76.4% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 11 bull cycle
A corrective cycle in BTP futures has resulted in a pullback from its recent highs and today’s gap lower highlights potential for a continuation near-term. The contract has breached the 20-day EMA and today’s move opens 119.67, a Fibonacci retracement point. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 123.34, the Dec 11 high. Initial firm resistance is seen at 121.59, the 20-day EMA.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z4) Corrective Cycle
- RES 4: 5150.00 3.00 proj of the Nov 19 - 25 - 27 price swing
- RES 3: 5106.00 High Sep 30 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 5084.00 High Oct 15
- RES 1: 4974.00/5014.00 High Dec 18 / 9 and key resistance
- PRICE: 4888.00 @ 06:45 GMT Dec 19
- SUP 1: 4882.00 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 4856.50 50.0% retracement of the Nov 19 - Dec 9 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 4819.33 61.8% retracement of the Nov 19 - Dec 9 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 4760.00 Low Dec 2
A bull cycle in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact, however, the latest pullback highlights the potential start of a corrective cycle. Price has traded through the 50-day EMA, at 4898.37. A continuation lower would open 4819.33, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 5014.00, the Dec 9 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the recent uptrend.
E-MINI S&P: (H5) Short-Term Reversal
- RES 4: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance
- RES 3: 6163.75 High Dec 16
- RES 2: 6089.68 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 6011.85 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 5944.00 @ 06:06 GMT Dec 19
- SUP 1: 5906.50 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 5876.25 Low Nov 6
- SUP 3: 5811.65 38.2% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
- SUP 4: 5784.00 Low Nov 4
A sharp sell-off in the S&P E-Minis contract yesterday highlights a possible short-term top. The move down has resulted in a breach of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A continuation lower would open 5811.65, a Fibonacci retracement level. Note that support at 5921.00, the Nov 19 low, has been pierced. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat. Initial resistance is at 6011.85, the 50-day EMA.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (G5) Trend Set-Up Still Bearish
- RES 4: $84.32 - High Jul 5 and a key resistance
- RES 3: $81.83 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $79.98/80.44 - High Oct 7 / 76.4% of Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- RES 1: $75.79 - High Nov 5
- PRICE: $73.09 @ 07:04 GMT Dec 19
- SUP 1: $69.95 - Low Oct 29
- SUP 2: $69.52/67.89 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $66.70 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $64.34 - 2.000 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
The outlook in Brent futures remains bearish and moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the bear leg would open $69.52 the Oct 1 low, and $67.89, the Sep 10 low and a key support. For bulls, a clearer reversal higher would instead refocus attention on key resistance at $79.98, the Oct 7 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged at $75.79, the Nov 5 high.
WTI TECHS: (G5) Recent Bounce Appears Corrective
- RES 4: $79.59 - High Jul 5
- RES 3: $77.41 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $74.27/76.41 - High Oct 10 / 8 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $71.97 - High Nov 7
- PRICE: $69.58 @ 07:22 GMT Dec 19
- SUP 1: $66.01 - Low Oct 29
- SUP 2: $65.57/63.73 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $62.85 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 5 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number
A bearish threat in WTI futures remains present and recent gains are - for now - considered corrective. A resumption of the bear cycle would open $65.57, the Oct 1 low, and $63.73, the Sep 10 low and key support. For bulls, a stronger reversal to the upside would instead refocus attention on the key short-term resistance at $76.41, the Oct 8 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged at $71.97, the Nov 7 high.
GOLD TECHS: Monitoring Support
- RES 4: $2790.1 - High Oct 31 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $2750.0 - High Nov 5
- RES 2: $2730.4 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg
- RES 1: $2650.4/2726.2 - 20-day EMA / High Dec 12
- PRICE: $2619.2 @ 07:31 GMT Dec 19
- SUP 1: $2583.6 - Intraday low
- SUP 2: $2564.4 - Low Nov 18
- SUP 3: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support
- SUP 4: $2511.1 - Low Sep 12
Gold traded lower yesterday. The move down undermines a recent bullish theme. A resumption weakness would signal scope for an extension towards the key support at $2536.9, the Nov 14 low. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position highlighting a medium-term uptrend and this suggests that the latest sell-off is likely a correction. Initial pivot resistance is $2650.4, the 20-day EMA. A breach of it would be positive for bulls.
SILVER TECHS: Trades Through Support
- RES 4: $35.226 - 61.8% of the 2011 - 2020 major bear leg
- RES 3: $35.167 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 2: $33.125/34.903 - High Nov 1 / High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $31.079/32.338 - 50-day EMA / High Dec 12
- PRICE: $29.522 @ 08:17 GMT Dec 19
- SUP 1: $29.256 - Intraday low
- SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8
A bear cycle in Silver that started Oct 23 remains in play and yesterday’s move lower reinforces this trend condition. The metal has breached support at $29.642, the Nov 28 low. The break lower opens $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance has been defined at $32.338, the Dec 12 high. A break of this level would signal a reversal.