MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - JPY Bears Remain In The Driver's Seat

Price Signal Summary - JPY Downtrend Extends As Bears Remain In The Driver's Seat

• In the equity space, S&P E-Minis traded higher again Thursday. The move confirms a resumption of the uptrend, marking an extension of the bull cycle that started in October 2022. The focus is on a climb towards 4491.19, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Oct 2022 low (cont). Firm support is at 4320.18, the 20-day EMA. Initial support is at 4381.75, the Jun 5 high. EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded are trading higher today. Resistance at 4380.00, the May 29 high, has been cleared this week. This is a bullish development and signals scope for an extension higher towards key resistance at 4434.00, the May 19 high. Clearance of this hurdle would represent an important bullish development and open 4448.00, the Jan 2008 high (cont). Initial support to watch is at 4303.00, the Jun 7 low.
• In FX, EURUSD rallied sharply higher Thursday. A number of important retracement points have been cleared, reinforcing bullish conditions and this signals scope for an extension towards 1.0986, 76.4% of the Apr 26 - May 31 downleg. A break of this level would open 1.1054, the May 8 high. Initial firm support is Thursday’s low of 1.0804. GBPUSD traded sharply higher Thursday. The rally has confirmed a clear break of the 1.2680 former resistance, the May 10. The breach strengthens bullish conditions and opens 1.2849, the 0.618 projection of the Mar 8 - May 10 - May 25 price swing . Initial support is at Thursday’s 1.2630 low. USDJPY traded higher Thursday but failed to hold on to its gains. The trend condition is bullish and attention remains on key resistance at the top of a bull channel drawn from the Jan 16 low, which intersects at 141.45. It has been tested, a clear break of this hurdle would be bullish and open 141.61 next, the Nov 23 2022 high. Support to watch is at 139.16, the 20-day EMA.
• On the commodity front, the bear cycle in Gold remains intact. The yellow metal is trading below trendline support drawn from the Nov 3 2022 low - the trendline intersects at $1966.8. The break of this line reinforces bearish conditions and marks a resumption of the downtrend. The focus is on $1903.5, 61.8% of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle. Initial firm resistance is $1985.3, the May 24 high. Clearance of this resistance would signal a short-term reversal instead. In the oil space, WTI futures continue to trade below resistance at $75.06, the Jun 5 high and the outlook remains bearish, despite the latest recovery. The pullback from $75.06 reinforces a bearish theme. Support at $67.03, May 31 low, has been pierced, a clear break would open $63.90, May 4 low. On the upside, a break of $75.06 is required to signal a reversal. Short-term gains are considered corrective.
• In the FI space, Bund futures maintain a softer tone. Resistance at 134.77, the Jun 12 high, remains intact. A break of this level is required to expose key short-term resistance at 135.85, the Jun 1 high. Support at 132.97, the Jun 8 low, has been cleared and the break opens 132.12, the May 26 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level would strengthen bearish conditions. Gilt futures remain bearish and this week’s move lower reinforces current conditions. The contract has pierced support at 94.21, the May 26 low and bear trigger. A clear break of it would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open the 94.00 handle initially. Initial firm resistance is at 96.63, the Jun 9 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Impulsive Bull Rally

• RES 4: 1.1185 High Mar 31 2022
• RES 3: 1.1095 High Apr 26 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.1054 High May 8
• RES 1: 1.0986 61.8% retracement of the Apr 26 - May 31 downleg
• PRICE: 1.0942 @ 05:28 BST Jun 16
• SUP 1: 1.0864/1.0804 High Jun 14 / Low Jun 15
• SUP 2: 1.0777 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.0733 Low Jun 12
• SUP 4: 1.0667/35 Low Jun 6 / Low May 31 and the bear trigger

EURUSD rallied sharply higher Thursday, extending the bull cycle that started at 1.0635 on May 31. A number of important retracement points have been cleared, reinforcing bullish conditions and this signals scope for an extension towards 1.0986, 76.4% of the Apr 26 - May 31 downleg. A break of this level would open 1.1054, the May 8 high. Initial firm support is Thursday’s low of 1.0804.

GBPUSD TECHS: Clears Key Resistance

• RES 4: 1.2977 0.764 proj of the Mar 8 - May 10 - May 25 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2877 High Apr 25 2022
• RES 2: 1.2849 0.618 proj of the Mar 8 - May 10 - May 25 price swing
• RES 1: 1.2818 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.2796 @ 09:50 BST Jun 16
• SUP 1: 1.2680/30 High May 10 / Low Jun 15
• SUP 2: 1.2526/2457 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 3: 1.2369 Low Jun 5 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.2308 Low May 25 and the bear trigger

GBPUSD traded sharply higher Thursday. The rally has confirmed a clear break of the 1.2680 former resistance, the May 10. The breach strengthens bullish conditions - 1.2680 was a key medium-term resistance. This opens 1.2849, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode condition reflecting current conditions. Initial support is at Thursday’s 1.2630 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Condition Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 0.8768 High May 5
• RES 3: 0.8719 High May 23
• RES 2: 0.8685 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8617/51 20-day EMA / High May 31
• PRICE: 0.8561 @ 05:57 BST Jun 16
• SUP 1: 0.8541 Low Jun 9 / 12 low
• SUP 2: 0.8522 Low Aug 30 2022
• SUP 3: 0.8497/8468 1.0% 10-dma env / 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band
• SUP 4: 0.8454 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep 2022 bull cycle

The primary trend direction in EURGBP is down and price is trading closer to recent lows. Initial resistance is at 0.8617, the 20-day EMA. MA studies are in a bear-mode condition, highlighting a downtrend and recent fresh lows reinforce bearish conditions. Clearance of 0.8541, Jun 9 and 12 lows, would confirm a resumption of the trend and open 0.8522, the Aug 30 2022 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Tests Bull Channel Resistance

• RES 4: 142.51 61.8% of the Oct 16 2022 - Jan 16 bear leg
• RES 3: 142.25 High Nov 21 2022
• RES 2: 141.61 High Nov 23 2022
• RES 1: 141.45/50 Bull channel top from Jan 16 low / High Jun 15
• PRICE: 140.74@ 06:15 BST Jun 16
• SUP 1: 139.16/138.45 20-day EMA / Low Jun 1
• SUP 2: 137.43 Low May 19
• SUP 3: 137.36 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 136.31 Low May 17

USDJPY traded higher Thursday but failed to hold on to its gains. The trend condition is bullish and attention remains on key resistance at the top of a bull channel drawn from the Jan 16 low, which intersects at 141.45. It has been tested, a clear break of this hurdle would be bullish and open 141.61 next, the Nov 23 2022 high. For bears, a strong reversal lower would instead highlight a potential top. Support to watch is at 139.16, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Continues To Climb

• RES 4: 156.23 2.00 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 3: 155.59 1.382 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 155.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 154.72 Intraday high
• PRICE: 154.41 @ 09:55 BST Jun 16
• SUP 1: 151.61 Low Jun 15
• SUP 2: 150.19 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 148.56 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 147.61 Low May 16

EURJPY traded sharply higher Thursday as this week’s bull run extended and the cross is climbing again today. Price has cleared key resistance at 151.61, the May 2 high and an important bull trigger. This confirms a resumption of the longer-term uptrend. The focus is on 155.59, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 150.19, the 20-day EMA. A break would signal a short-term top.

AUDUSD TECHS: Clears Key Resistance

• RES 4: 0.7029 High Feb 14
• RES 3: 0.6993 76.4% retracement of the Feb - May Downleg
• RES 2: 0.6921 High Feb 20
• RES 1: 0.6900 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.6884 @ 09:57 BST Jun 16
• SUP 1: 0.6818/6768 High May 10 / Low Jun 15
• SUP 2: 0.6727 Low Jun 12
• SUP 3: 0.6691 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.6610 Low Jun 6

A strong rally Thursday in AUDUSD reinforces bullish conditions and confirms an extension of the bull cycle from May 31. The pair has cleared key resistance at 0.6818, the May 10 high. This reinforces bullish conditions and paves the way for a climb towards 0.6921 next, the Feb 20 high. Further out, scope is seen for gains to 0.6993, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm support lies at 0.6768, the Jun 15 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Bear Cycle Extension

• RES 4: 1.3585 High Jun 1
• RES 3: 1.3470 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.3412 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3302/3355 Low Apr 14 / High Jun 15
• PRICE: 1.3225 @ 06:46 BST Jun 16
• SUP 1: 1.3200 Round number support
• SUP 2: 1.3154 Low Sep 15 2022
• SUP 3: 1.3139 Low Sep 14 2022
• SUP 4: 1.2992 50.0% retracement of the Jun - Oct 2022 bull rally

USDCAD traded sharply lower Thursday, confirming a resumption of the downtrend. Support at 1.3262 has been cleared, the Feb 2 low. Price has also breached an important support at 1.3226, the Nov 15 2022 low. This strengthens the bearish condition and signals scope for a move towards 1.3154, the Sep 15 low and 1.3139, the Sep 14 low. On the upside, firm resistance is seen at 1.3412, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U3) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 136.50 High May 11
• RES 3: 135.85 High Jun 1 and key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 134.77/95 / High Jun 12 / 6
• RES 1: 133.89 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 132.65 @ 05:03 BST Jun 16
• SUP 1: 132.20 Low Jun 15
• SUP 2: 132.12 Low May 26 and key support
• SUP 3: 131.89 1.00 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 131.21 1.236 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing

Bund futures maintain a softer tone and the contract traded lower Thursday. Resistance at 134.77, the Jun 12 high, remains intact. A break of this level is required to expose key short-term resistance at 135.85, the Jun 1 high. Support at 132.97, the Jun 8 low, has been cleared and the break opens 132.12, the May 26 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level would strengthen bearish conditions.

BOBL TECHS: (U3) Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 117.700 High Jun 1 and key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 117.200 High Jun 6
• RES 2: 116.990/117.010 High Jun 12 / 7
• RES 1: 116.390/614 High Jun 14 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 115.610 @ 05:10 BST Jun 16
• SUP 1: 115.380 Low Jun 15
• SUP 2: 115.198 1.236 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 3: 115.986 1.382 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 114.815 1.50 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing

Bobl futures maintain a softer tone and this week’s continuation lower reinforces bearish conditions. Price has moved through support at 116.250, the Jun 8 low and cleared key support at 115.870, the May 26 low. The break of this latter level strengthens bearish conditions and opens 115.198, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, resistance to watch is 116.990, the Jun 12 high. A break would ease bearish pressure.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U3) Southbound

• RES 4: 105.875 High Jun 1 and key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 105.655/815 High Jun 6 / 4
• RES 2: 105.325/550 High Jun 14 / 12 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 105.185 High Jun 15
• PRICE: 105.005 @ 05:12 BST Jun 16
• SUP 1: 104.920 Low Jun 15
• SUP 2: 104.883 1.236 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 3: 104.740 1.50 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 104.695 Low Mar 10 (cont)

Schatz futures traded lower yesterday. This week’s price action resulted in a break of 105.330, the May 26 low and bear trigger. The move confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 104.883, a Fibonacci projection. Note that moving average studies remain in a bear mode condition, highlighting a downtrend. Firm resistance is at 105.550, the Jun 12 high.

GILT TECHS: (U3) Testing Key Support

• RES 4: 97.64 High Jun 1 and the reversal trigger
• RES 3: 96.63/97.06 High Jun 9 / 6
• RES 2: 96.31 High Jun 12
• RES 1: 95.30High Jun 15
• PRICE: 94.85 @ Close Jun 15
• SUP 1: 94.21/08 May 26 and the bear trigger / Low Jun 15
• SUP 2: 94.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 93.45 1.618 proj of the Feb 2 - 28 - Mar 20 price swing (cont)
• SUP 4: 92.19 1.764 proj of the Feb 2 - 28 - Mar 20 price swing (cont)

Gilt futures remain bearish and this week’s move lower reinforces current conditions. The contract has pierced support at 94.21, the May 26 low and bear trigger. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open the 94.00 handle initially. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position reflecting current sentiment. Initial firm resistance is at 96.63, the Jun 9 high.

BTP TECHS: (U3) Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 118.41 1.00 projection of May 26 - Jun 2 - Jun 8 price swing
• RES 3: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 2: 117.33 0.764 projection of May 26 - Jun 2 - Jun 8 price swing
• RES 1: 117.08 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 115.56 @ Close Jun 15
• SUP 1: 114.61 Low Jun 15
• SUP 2: 113.83 Low Jun 8 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 112.48 Low May 29
• SUP 4: 111.78 Low May 26 and a key support

BTP futures traded to a fresh cycle high earlier this week. The contract has cleared resistance at 116.36, the Jun 2 high and a short-term bull trigger. This cancels a recent bearish threat and instead confirms a resumption of the uptrend and signals scope for a climb towards 117.33, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 113.83, the Jun 8 low. A break would be bearish.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U3) Bounce Considered Corrective - For Now

• RES 4: 115-19 High May 18
• RES 3: 115-00 High Jun 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 114-06+ / 114-23 High Jun 6 / 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 114-00 High Jun 13
• PRICE: 113-14+ @ 18:19 BST Jun 15
• SUP 1: 112-12+ Low Jun 14
• SUP 2: 112-00 Low Mar 10
• SUP 3: 111-14+ Low Mar 9
• SUP 4: 110-27+ Low Mar 2 and key support

Treasury futures remain in a downtrend and this week’s move lower confirmed a resumption of the trend. Support at 112-29+, May 26 / 30 low has been cleared. This signals scope for the 112-00 handle, the Mar 10 low. Further out, bearish price action suggests scope for a move towards 110-27+, the Mar 2 low and a key support. Gains are considered corrective - for now. Initial firm resistance is at 114-00, Tuesday’s high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U3) Eyeing Key Resistance

• RES 4: 4489.00 1.50 proj of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 4474.40 1.382 proj of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 4448.00 High Jan 2008 (cont)
• RES 1: 4434 High May 19 and a major resistance
• PRICE: 4396.00 @ 05:54 BST Jun 16
• SUP 1: 4303.00 Low Jun 7
• SUP 2: 4242.00 Low May 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4200.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 4150.00 Low Mar 29

Eurostoxx 50 futures are trading higher today. Resistance at 4380.00, the May 29 high, has been cleared this week. This is a bullish development and signals scope for an extension higher towards key resistance at 4434.00, the May 19 high. Clearance of this hurdle would represent an important bullish development and open 4448.00, the Jan 2008 high (cont). Initial firm support to watch is at 4303.00, the Jun 7 low.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U3) Northbound

• RES 4: 4532.08 2.236 projection of the May 4 - 19 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: 4492.25 2.00 projection of the May 4 - 19 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 4491.19 Channel top from the Oct ‘22 low (cont)
• RES 1: 4485.50 High Jun 14
• PRICE: 4468.50 @ 07:01 BST Jun 16
• SUP 1: 4381.75/4320.18 Low Jun 5 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4241.84 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4154.75 Low May 24
• SUP 4: 4098.25 Low May 4 and a key support

S&P E-minis traded higher again Thursday. The move confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, marking an extension of the bull cycle that started in October 2022. The focus is on a climb towards 4491.19, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Oct 2022 low (cont). Firm support is at 4320.18, the 20-day EMA. Initial support is at 4381.75, the Jun 5 high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q3) Bounce Considered Corrective

• RES 4: $84.56 - High Apr 18
• RES 3: $82.47 - High Apr 25
• RES 2: $80.08 - High Apr 28
• RES 1: $76.76/78.73 - 50-day EMA / High Jun 5 and a bull trigger
• PRICE: $75.80 @ 07:04 BST Jun 16
• SUP 1: $71.50 - Low May 31
• SUP 2: $71.20 - Low May 4
• SUP 3: $70.06 - Low Mar 20 and a key support
• SUP 4: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)

A bear threat in Brent futures remains present despite yesterday’s gains and the contract continues to trade below $78.73, the Jun 5 high. Scope is seen for a move towards $71.20, the May 4 low, ahead of $70.06, the Mar 20 low. Moving average studies remain in a bear mode position and this highlights a downtrend. On the upside, clearance of $78.73 would alter the picture. Short-term gains are considered corrective - for now.

WTI TECHS: (N3) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: $80.93 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $79.00 - High Apr 24
• RES 2: $76.74 - High Apr 28
• RES 1: $72.67/75.06 - 50-day EMA / High Jun 5 and a key resistance
• PRICE: $70.77 @ 07:08 BST Jun 16
• SUP 1: $66.80 - Low Jun 12
• SUP 2: $63.90 - Low May 4 and key support
• SUP 3: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number

WTI futures continue to trade below resistance at $75.06, the Jun 5 high and the outlook remains bearish, despite the latest recovery. The pullback from $75.06 reinforces a bearish theme. Support at $67.03, May 31 low, has been pierced, a clear break would open $63.90, May 4 low. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position highlighting a downtrend. A break of $75.06 is required to signal a reversal. S/T gains are considered corrective.

GOLD TECHS: Bearish Theme

• RES 4: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: $2063.0 - High May 4
• RES 2: $2022.6 - High May 12
• RES 1: $1985.3 - High May 24 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $1960.9 @ 07:21 BST Jun 16
• SUP 1: $1925.1 - Low Jun 15
• SUP 2: $1903.5 - 61.8% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle
• SUP 3: $1885.8 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: $1865.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle

The bear cycle in Gold remains intact. The yellow metal is trading below trendline support drawn from the Nov 3 2022 low - the trendline intersects at $1966.8. The break of this line reinforces bearish conditions and marks a resumption of the downtrend. The focus is on $1903.5, 61.8% of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle. Initial firm resistance is $1985.3, the May 24 high. Clearance of this resistance would signal a short-term reversal instead.

SILVER TECHS: Resistance At The Double Top Midpoint Remains Intact

• RES 4: $26.771 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $25.477/26.135 - High May 11 / 5 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $24.492/530 - Low Apr 25 and double midpoint / High Jun 12
• PRICE: $23.988 @ 08:04 BST Jun 16
• SUP 1: $22.221/682 - Low Jun 15 / Low May 26 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $22.284 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally
• SUP 3: $22.157 - Low Mar 21
• SUP 4: $21.375 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally

Silver remains below its recent high of $24.5300 on Jun 12. The latest pullback means that resistance at $24.492 stays intact, the midpoint of a double top reversal pattern confirmed on May 11, and signals the end of the recent May 26 - Jun 9 corrective rally. The trend outlook is bearish and the focus is on a move towards key support and the bear trigger at $22.682, the May 26 low. A break of 24.530, Jun 12 high, would alter the picture.