MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - JPY Clears All Nearby Resistance

Price Signal Summary – JPY Clears All Nearby Resistance

• S&P E-Minis continue to trade lower and a clear risk-off mood is driving prices lower. The bearish activity has reinforced recent reversal signals - a shooting star candle on Dec 13 followed by a break on Dec 15, of support at 3945.75, the Dec 7 low. EUROSTOXX 50 futures are in a clear bear mode position and today’s move lower has reinforced this theme. The break lower has confirmed a breach of the 50-day EMA - at 3799.60.
• USDJPY has traded sharply lower today and in the process cleared key support and the bear trigger at 133.63, the Dec 2 low. This confirms a resumption of the current downtrend and paves the way for weakness towards 131.74, the Aug 11 low. EURJPY has failed to hold on to recent gains and has traded sharply lower today. A number of short-term support points have been cleared and the cross has traded below 140.77, the Dec 2 low and a bear trigger. A clear break of this level would resume the bear cycle that started on Oct 21 and open 140.00, a Fibonacci retracement. A sharp sell-off in AUDUSD last Thursday signalled a S/T top and today’s move lower has reinforced this turn. The 20-day EMA has been cleared and attention is on the 50-day EMA at 0.6661 - this average has been pierced today.
• Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish despite last Thursday’s sell-off. Pullbacks are considered corrective and key S/T support to watch is $1765.9, Dec 5 low. The yellow metal breached $1810.0 last week, Dec 5 high, to resume the uptrend. Trend conditions in WTI futures remain bearish. Recent gains however, have highlighted a bullish corrective cycle and last week this resulted in a test of the 20-day EMA, at $76.89 today.
• Bund futures traded lower last week to extend the current bear phase that started Dec 7. The contract has also started this week on a softer note. Recent weakness resulted in a break of support at 139.13, Nov 28 low, strengthening a bearish threat. Gilt futures started the week on a softer note, extending the current bearish leg. The move lower Monday resulted in a clear break of support at 103.54, the Nov 21 low. This has strengthened a bearish threat and signals scope for a deeper pullback - towards the 100.00 psychological support.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trading Below Last Week’s Highs

• RES 4: 1.0851 High Apr 25
• RES 3: 1.0787 High May 30 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.0769/74 2.0% 10-dma envelope / High Jun 9
• RES 1: 1.0736 2.382 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - 13 price swing
• PRICE: 1.0601 @ 06:32 GMT Dec 20
• SUP 1: 1.0528 Low Dec 13
• SUP 2: 1.0489 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.0443 Low Dec 7 and a key short-term support
• SUP 4: 1.0299 50-day EMA

EURUSD remains below last week’s highs. The latest pullback is considered corrective - for now. Last week’s break higher confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 1.0736 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support to watch is at 1.0443, the Dec 7 low, where a break would signal a short-term top. Initial support lies at 1.0528, the Dec 13 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 1.2667 High May 27
• RES 3: 1.2599 High Jun 7
• RES 2: 1.2506 1.382 proj of the Sep 26 - Oct 5 - Oct 12 price swing
• RES 1: 1.2446 High Dec 14 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2138 @ 06:43 GMT Dec 20
• SUP 1: 1.2086 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.2054 Low Dec 1
• SUP 3: 1.1901 Low Nov 30 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.1893 50-day EMA

GBPUSD is trading at its recent lows and the short-term outlook appears bearish following last Thursday’s sell-off. Attention is on the first key support at 1.2107, the Dec 7 low. It has been pierced, a clear break would pave the way for a move towards 1.1901, the Nov 30 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.2446, the Dec 14 high. A turn higher and a break of this hurdle, would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

EURGBP TECHS: Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 0.8907 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.8867 High Oct 12
• RES 2: 0.8829 High Nov 09 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8776 High Nov 16
• PRICE: 0.8729 @ 06:54 GMT Dec 20
• SUP 1: 0.8661/8593 50-day EMA / Low Dec 15
• SUP 2: 0.8556/47 200-dma / Low Dec 1 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8522 Low Aug 30
• SUP 4: 0.8471 Low Aug 28

EURGBP is unchanged and the cross is consolidating. Price rallied sharply higher last Thursday and in the process cleared the 50-day EMA at 0.8661. The break higher has improved the short-term outlook for bulls and signals scope for a climb towards resistance at 0.8829, the Nov 9 high and a bull trigger. On the downside, key support has been defined at 0.8547, the Dec 1 low, where a break is required to signal a continuation of the downtrend.

USDJPY TECHS: Heading South

• RES 4: 140.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 137.79 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 137.79 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 134.54 Low Dec 14
• PRICE: 132.34 @ 08:41 GMT Dec 20
• SUP 1: 132.10 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 131.74 Low Aug 11 and a key support
• SUP 3: 131.08 1.00 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 15 - 21 price swing
• SUP 4: 130.41 Low Aug 2 and a key support

USDJPY has traded sharply lower today and in the process cleared key support and the bear trigger at 133.63, the Dec 2 low. This confirms a resumption of the current downtrend and paves the way for weakness towards 131.74, the Aug 11 low. Moving averages studies are in a bear-mode position and price remains below the 20-day EMA. This average is a key resistance - it intersects at 137.79.

EURJPY TECHS: Sharp Sell-Off Exposes Key Short-Term Support

• RES 4: 146.73 High Dec 15 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 145.83 Intraday high
• RES 2: 143.50 Low Dec 14 and a recent breakout level
• RES 1: 142.00 ROund number resistance
• PRICE: 140.63 @ 08:42 GMT Dec 20
• SUP 1: 140.16 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 140.00 76.4% retracement of the Sep 26 - Oct 21 bull leg
• SUP 3: 139.44 Low Sep 29
• SUP 4: 138.06 Low Sep 28

EURJPY has failed to hold on to recent gains and has traded sharply lower today. A number of short-term support points have been cleared and the cross has traded below 140.77, the Dec 2 low and a bear trigger. A clear break of this level would resume the bear cycle that started on Oct 21 and open 140.00, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is seen at 143.50, the Dec 14 low and a very recent breakout level.

AUDUSD TECHS: Pierces The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 0.6976 2.00 proj of the Oct 13 - 27 - Nov 3 price swing
• RES 3: 0.6956 High Aug 30
• RES 2: 0.6909 76.4% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 1: 0.6744/6893 Intraday high / High Dec 13 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6663 @ 07:03 GMT Dec 20
• SUP 1: 0.6629 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.6585 Low Nov 21 and a key short-term support
• SUP 3: 0.6531 50.0% retracement of the Oct 13 - Dec 13 climb
• SUP 4: 0.6500 Round number support

A sharp sell-off in AUDUSD last Thursday signalled a S/T top and today’s move lower has reinforced this turn. The 20-day EMA has been cleared and attention is on the 50-day EMA at 0.6661 - this average has been pierced today. A clear break would suggest potential for a deeper retracement towards 0.6585, the Nov 21 low. On the upside, key resistance has been defined at 0.6893, Dec 13 high. A break would resume the recent uptrend.

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 1.3855 High Oct 21 - Nov 16 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.3808 High Nov 3 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3751 High Nov 4
• RES 1: 1.3705 High Dec 16
• PRICE: 1.3660 @ 08:11 GMT Dec 20
• SUP 1: 1.3567/3519 20-day EMA / Low Dec 14
• SUP 2: 1.3436/3385 Former trendline resistance / Low Dec 5
• SUP 3: 1.3317/3226 Low Nov 24/25 / Low Nov 15 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally

USDCAD traded higher last Friday and pierced 1.3700, the Dec 7 high. The outlook remains bullish. The recent break of trendline resistance, drawn from the Oct 13 high, has strengthened bullish conditions and this has opened 1.3751, the Nov 4 high. On the downside, a break below the former trendline resistance - at 1.3436 - would be bearish and expose 1.3385, the Dec 5 low. Initial key support lies at 1.3519, the Dec 14 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H3) Bear Cycle Extension

• RES 4: 140.78 High Dec 15
• RES 3: 139.68 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 138.62 High Dec 16
• RES 1: 137.76 High De 19
• PRICE: 135.92 @ 05:09 GMT Dec 20
• SUP 1: 135.83 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 135.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 134.50 Low Nov 8 and a key support
• SUP 4: 134.02 Low Oct 21 (cont)

Bund futures traded lower last week to extend the current bear phase that started Dec 7. The contract has also started this week on a softer note. Recent weakness resulted in a break of support at 139.13, Nov 28 low, strengthening a bearish threat. Furthermore, a number of additional support points have been cleared. The focus is on 135.00 next. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 139.68, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (H3) Fresh Lows

• RES 4: 119.230 High Dec 15
• RES 3: 118.649 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 118.260 Low Nov 28 and a recent breakout point
• RES 1: 117.720 High Dec 16
• PRICE: 117.020 @ 05:40 GMT Dec 20
• SUP 1: 116.890 Low Nov 8 and a key support
• SUP 2: 116.773 1.764 proj of the Dec 7 - 12 - 13 price swing
• SUP 3: 116.410 2.00 proj of the Dec 7 - 12 - 13 price swing
• SUP 4: 116.047 2.236 proj of the Dec 7 - 12 - 13 price swing

The sell-off late last week in Bobl futures strengthened the current bearish cycle and support at 118.260, the Dec 13 low, has been cleared. Today’s move lower has reinforced the bearish threat. The break lower signals scope for an extension towards 116.890 next, the Nov 8 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 118.260, the recent breakout level. The 20-day EMA intersects at 118.6492.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H3) Remains Soft

• RES 4: 106.875 High Dec 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 106.680 High Dec 13
• RES 2: 106.570 High Dec 15
• RES 1: 106.005/106.335 High Dec 16 / Low Nov 28
• PRICE: 105.840 @ 05:54 GMT Dec 20
• SUP 1: 105.805 Low Dec 16 and intraday low
• SUP 2: 105.660 2.00 projection of the Dec 2 - 13 price swing
• SUP 3: 105.540 2.236 projection of the Dec 2 - 13 price swing
• SUP 4: 105.465 2.382 projection of the Dec 2 - 13 price swing

Schatz futures remain soft following last week’s sell-off - this resulted in a break of support at 106.335, the Nov 28 low. The break lower, signals potential for a deeper pullback that has opened 105.660 and 105.540, Fibonacci projections. On the upside, 106.335 is a firm resistance. A break of this level is required to suggest a potential reversal. This would open 106.680, the Dec 13 high.

GILT TECHS: (H3) Bear Leg Extends

• RES 4: 106.95 High Dec 2
• RES 3: 106.18 High Dec 12
• RES 2: 105.29 High Dec 15 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 103.67/104.31 High Dec 19 / 16
• PRICE: 101.31 @ 08:20 GMT Dec 20
• SUP 1: 100.00/99.92 Psychological support / Low Nov 8 (cont)
• SUP 2: 98.15 Low Oct 24 (cont)
• SUP 3: 97.33 61.8% retracement of the Oct 12 - Nov 25 bull phase
• SUP 4: 95.82 Low Oct 21 (cont)

Gilt futures started the week on a softer note, extending the current bearish leg. The move lower Monday resulted in a clear break of support at 103.54, the Nov 21 low. This has strengthened a bearish threat and signals scope for a deeper pullback - towards the 100.00 psychological support. A break would open 98.15, the Oct 4 low (cont). Initial firm resistance is seen at 105.29, the Dec 15 high.

BTP TECHS: (H3) Pullback Extends

• RES 4: 119.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 118.96 High Dec 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 117.93 High Dec 13
• RES 1: 113.23/116.43 High Dec 16 / High Dec 15
• PRICE: 110.83 @ 08:18 GMT Dec 20
• SUP 1: 110.55 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 110.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 109.46 Low Nov 8
• SUP 4: 107.51 Low Oct 24

BTP futures remain soft following last week’s bearish price action. The contract has cleared support at 115.01, the Nov 28 low and this signals scope for a deeper pullback. Attention is on the 110.00 handle. On the upside, initial firm resistance is far-off at 117.93, the Dec 13 high. A break would expose key resistance and the bull trigger at 118.96, the Dec 7 high. First resistance is at 113.23, the Dec 16 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H3) Clears The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4132.60 76.4/% of the Nov ‘21 - Oct ‘22 bear leg (cont)
• RES 3: 4049.50 High Feb 23 (cont)
• RES 2: 4043.00 High Dec 13 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 3896.10 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 3759.00 @ 05:47 GMT Dec 20
• SUP 1: 3720.00 Low Nov 10
• SUP 2: 3646.50 50% retracement of the Sep - Dec bull cycle
• SUP 3: 3580.00 Low Nov 3
• SUP 4: 3552.90 61.8% retracement of the Sep - Dec bull cycle

EUROSTOXX 50 futures are in a clear bear mode position and today’s move lower has reinforced this theme. The break lower has confirmed a breach of the 50-day EMA - at 3799.60. The break of this average signals scope for an extension lower near-term and this has opened 3720.00 next, the Nov 10 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at the 20-day EMA - it intersects at 3896.10.

E-MINI S&P (H3): Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 4250.00 High Aug 26
• RES 3: 4194.25 High Sep 13 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 4043.00/4180.00 High Dec 15 / 13 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 3899.00/3952.05 High Dec 19 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 3813.00 @ 06:10 GMT Dec 20
• SUP 1: 3778.45 61.8% retracement of the Oct 13 - Dec 13 uptrend
• SUP 2: 3735.00 Low Nov 3
• SUP 3: 3670.00 76.4% retracement of the Oct 13 - Dec 13 uptrend
• SUP 4: 3735.00 Low Oct 21

S&P E-Minis continue to trade lower and a clear risk-off mood is driving prices lower. The bearish activity has reinforced recent reversal signals - a shooting star candle on Dec 13 followed by a break on Dec 15, of support at 3945.75, the Dec 7 low. The focus is on 3778.45, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 3952.05, the 50-day EMA. A break of this EMA is required to ease bearish pressure.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (G3) Trading Below The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: $91.63 - High Nov 17
• RES 3: $89.37 - High Dec 1
• RES 2: $85.72 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $82.25/83.18 - 20-day EMA / High Dec 15
• PRICE: $80.13 @ 06:58 GMT Dec 20
• SUP 1: $78.10/75.11 - Low Dec 13 / Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $72.33 - 1.00 proj of the Nov 7 - 28 - Dec 1 price swing
• SUP 3: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $68.31 - 1.236 proj of the Nov 7 - 28 - Dec 1 price swing

Brent futures traded lower Friday. Recent gains have highlighted a bullish corrective cycle. Price has recently tested resistance at $82.25, the 20-day EMA. A break of this level would signal potential for a stronger recovery and open the 50-day EMA, at $85.72. The broader trend outlook is bearish. A stronger reversal lower would signal the end of the correction and refocus attention on the Dec 9 low of $75.11 - the bear trigger.

WTI TECHS: (F3) Trading Below Last Week’s Highs

• RES 4: $89.20 - High Nov 11
• RES 3: $86.90 - High Nov 16
• RES 2: $80.35 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $76.89/77.77 - 20-day EMA / High Dec 15
• PRICE: $75.51 @ 06:30 GMT Dec 20
• SUP 1: $73.21/70.08 - Low Dec 13 / 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $68.86 - 1.236 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing
• SUP 3: $66.06 - 1.382 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing
• SUP 4: $63.80 - 1.50 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing

Trend conditions in WTI futures remain bearish. Recent gains however, have highlighted a bullish corrective cycle and last week this resulted in a test of the 20-day EMA, at $76.89 today. A clear break of this hurdle would signal scope for an extension and open $80.35, the 50-day EMA. On the downside, a stronger reversal lower would refocus attention on the bear trigger which lies at $70.08, the Dec 9 low.

GOLD TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: $1909.8 - High May 5
• RES 3: $1842.7 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 2: $1833.0 - High Jun 29
• RES 1: $1824.5 - High Dec 13 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1794.6 @ 07:20 GMT Dec 20
• SUP 1: $1775.6/65.9 - 20-day EMA / Low Dec 5
• SUP 2: $1745.7 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1729.0 - Low Nov 23 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: $1702.3 - Low Nov 9

Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish despite last Thursday’s sell-off. Pullbacks are considered corrective and key S/T support to watch is $1765.9, Dec 5 low. The yellow metal breached $1810.0 last week, Dec 5 high, to resume the uptrend. This maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and opens $1842.7, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, a break of $1765.9 would signal scope for a deeper pullback.

SILVER TECHS: Recent Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: $26.002 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $25.293 - High Apr 20
• RES 2: $24.729 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 1: $24.129 - High Dec 13
• PRICE: $23.158 @ 08:13 GMT Dec 20
• SUP 1: $22.025 - Low Dec 6 and a key short-term support
• SUP 2: $21.512/20.585 - 50-day EMA / Low Nov 21 and key support
• SUP 3: $19.416 - Low Nov 4
• SUP 4: $18.835 - Low Nov 3

The trend outlook in Silver remains bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The recent break of $23.517, Dec 5 high, highlights a continuation of the bull cycle and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This paves the way for $24.729, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support has been defined at $22.025, the Dec 6 low.