MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - JPY Looks Bullish Ahead of Critical BoJ Meeting

Price Signal Summary – JPY Looks Bullish Ahead of Critical BoJ Meeting

• S&P E-Minis traded higher last week. The contract has cleared resistance at the 50-day EMA and this has strengthened the short-term bullish condition. Price has also traded above the 4000.00 handle to open 4043.00 next. EUROSTOXX 50 futures bullish conditions remain intact and the contract traded to a fresh trend high Monday. Futures have recently cleared resistance at 4043.00, the Dec 13 high and a bull trigger.
• The downtrend in USDJPY remains intact and gains are considered corrective. Last week’s move lower confirmed a resumption of the trend. Moving average studies remain in a bear mode condition and a bearish price sequence highlights a downtrend. EURJPY remains weak despite the latest bounce. The impulsive sell-off last week followed a failure to remain above the 50-day EMA, at 142.19. The move lower leaves key resistance at 142.94, the Dec 28 high, intact. AUDUSD traded higher Monday and a bullish theme remains intact. The pair has cleared 0.6893, the Dec 13 high and this has confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Oct 13. The move higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the yellow metal traded to a fresh trend high Monday. This confirms an extension on the current uptrend and maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. WTI futures traded higher last week and a short-term bull theme remains intact. A continuation higher would signal scope for a test of resistance at $81.50, the Jan 3 high and a bull trigger.
• Bund futures are unchanged but remain in an uptrend and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. Price has recently traded through the 20-day EMA and short-term signals suggest scope for a continuation higher near-term. Gilt futures remain in an uptrend. The contract has cleared resistance at 102.78, the Jan 6 high. The break higher maintains the current bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and attention is on 105.20, the 76.4% retracement of the Nov 24 - Dec 28 bear leg.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 1.1022 3.00 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - Oct 13 price swing
• RES 3: 1.0954 High Apr 11, 2022
• RES 2: 1.0913 2.764 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - Oct 13 price swing
• RES 1: 1.0874 High Jan 16
• PRICE: 1.0824 @ 05:46 GMT Jan 17
• SUP 1: 1.0680 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0634 Low Jan 9
• SUP 3: 1.0512/1.0484 50-day EMA / Low Jan 6
• SUP 4: 1.0402 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band

EURUSD is unchanged and is trading just below its recent highs. The outlook is bullish. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of 1.0787, the May 30 2022 high and a key resistance. The move higher reinforces a bullish theme and note that moving average studies continue to highlight a bullish backdrop. The focus is on 1.0913, a Fibonacci projection. Key support has been defined at 1.0484, the Jan 6 low. Initial firm support lies at 1.0680, the 20-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 1.2506 1.382 proj of the Sep 26 - Oct 5 - Oct 12 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2446 High Dec 14 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.2303 76.4% retracement of the Dec 14 - Jan 6 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.2289 High Jan 16
• PRICE: 1.2200 @ 06:01 GMT Jan 17
• SUP 1: 1.2083 Low Jan 9
• SUP 2: 1.2006/1.1993 50-day EMA / 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 1.1842 Low Jan 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.1779 Low Nov 21

GBPUSD traded higher Monday, reinforcing current bullish conditions. Price has breached resistance at 1.2242, the Dec 19 high and a continuation higher would pave the way for a climb towards 1.2303, a Fibonacci retracement. Further out, this would expose 1.2446, the Dec 14 high and a key resistance. On the downside, initial support is seen at 1.2083, the Jan 9 low. Key support lies at 1.1842, the Jan 6 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver's Seat

• RES 4: 0.8992 61.8% Retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.8980 High Sep 29
• RES 2: 0.8907 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8897 High Jan 13
• PRICE: 0.8878 @ 06:34 GMT Jan 17
• SUP 1: 0.8813/8769 20-day EMA / Low Jan 9
• SUP 2: 0.8755 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.8691 Low Dec 19
• SUP 4: 0.8646 High Dec 8

EURGBP is unchanged and short-term conditions remain bullish. Last week's gains confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle and has maintained a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 0.8907, a Fibonacci retracement point. Moving average studies continue to highlight a bullish backdrop, reinforcing the current trend direction. Initial firm support is seen at 0.8755, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the EMA would be bearish.

USDJPY TECHS: Path Of Least Resistance Remains Down

• RES 4: 136.66 200-dma
• RES 3: 134.77/81 High Jan 6 / 23.6% Oct - Jan downleg
• RES 2: 131.31/132.09 Low Jan 9 / 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 129.52 Low Jan 3 and a recent breakout point
• PRICE: 128.73 @ 06:45 GMT Jan 17
• SUP 1: 127.23 Low Jan 16
• SUP 2: 126.81 1.382 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 15 - 21 price swing
• SUP 3: 126.36 Low May 24 and a key support
• SUP 4: 125.49 1.50 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 15 - 21 price swing

The downtrend in USDJPY remains intact and gains are considered corrective. Last week’s move lower confirmed a resumption of the trend. Moving average studies remain in a bear mode condition and a bearish price sequence highlights a downtrend. Furthermore, the 50- and 200-dmas have crossed, highlighting a potential bearish death cross. The focus is on 126.81, a Fibonacci projection. Key resistance is at 134.77, the Jan 6 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 144.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 143.16 61.8% retracement of the Dec 15 - Jan 3 bear leg
• RES 2: 142.86/94 High Jan 11 / High Dec 28 and key resistance
• RES 1: 140.40/141.04 High Jan 13 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 139.50 @ 06:50 GMT Jan 17
• SUP 1: 138.01 Low Jan 13
• SUP 2: 137.39 Low Jan 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 137.03 Low Aug 29
• SUP 4: 136.02 Low Aug 25

EURJPY remains weak despite the latest bounce. The impulsive sell-off last week followed a failure to remain above the 50-day EMA, at 142.19. The move lower leaves key resistance at 142.94, the Dec 28 high, intact. Attention is on 137.39, the Jan 3 low, where a break would resume the 2-month downtrend and open 137.03, the Aug 29 low. Clearance of 142.94 is required to signal a reversal.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Price Action

• RES 4: 0.7200 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 0.7137 High Aug 11
• RES 2: 0.7059 2.236 proj of the Oct 13 - 27 - Nov 3 price swing
• RES 1: 0.7019 High Jan 16
• PRICE: 0.6961 @ 07:56 GMT Jan 17
• SUP 1: 0.6860 Low Jan 9
• SUP 2: 0.6840 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.6753 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.6688 Low Jan 3 and key support

AUDUSD traded higher Monday and a bullish theme remains intact. The pair has cleared 0.6893, the Dec 13 high and this has confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Oct 13. The move higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies are in a bull mode position. The focus is on 0.7059 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key support lies at 0.6688, Jan 3 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Bearish Theme

• RES 4: 1.3751 High Nov 4
• RES 3: 1.3705 Dec 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.3665 High Jan 6
• RES 1: 1.3507 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3404 @ 08:01 GMT Jan 17
• SUP 1: 1.3322 Low Jan 13
• SUP 2: 1.3317 Low Nov 24 / 25
• SUP 3: 1.3226 Low Nov 15 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally

A bearish threat in USDCAD remains present and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. Price has breached a key support at the 1.3385 level - the Dec 5 low. This break strengthens bearish conditions and opens 1.3317, the Nov 24 / 25 low. The bear trigger lies at 1.3226, the Nov 15 low. On the upside, key resistance is at 1.3705, the Dec 16 high. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.3507, the 50-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H3) Bullish Conditions Still Intact

• RES 4: 141.06 High Dec 14
• RES 3: 140.48 76.4% retracement of the Dec 7 - Jan 3 bear leg
• RES 2: 140.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 139.09 High Jan 12 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 138.06 @ 05:04 GMT Jan 17
• SUP 1: 137.00 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 136.04/135.74 Low Jan 10 / 6
• SUP 3: 135.08 Low Jan 4 and a key short-term support
• SUP 4: 133.79 Low Jan 3

Bund futures are unchanged but remain in an uptrend and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. Price has recently traded through the 20-day EMA and short-term signals suggest scope for a continuation higher near-term. Sights are on 138.97, 61.8% of the Dec 7 - Jan 3 bear leg. This level has been pierced, a clear break would open the 140.00 handle. On the downside, initial firm support is at 136.04, the Jan 10 low.

BOBL TECHS: (H3) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 119.086 76.4% retracement of the Dec 7 - Jan 2 downleg
• RES 3: 118.610 Low Dec 12
• RES 2: 118.427 61.8% retracement of the Dec 7 - Jan 2 downleg
• RES 1: 118.250 High Jan 12
• PRICE: 117.850 @ 05:10 GMT Jan 17
• SUP 1: 117.398 20-Day EMA
• SUP 2: 116.950/740 Low Jan 10 / 6
• SUP 3: 116.540 Low Jan 4 and a key short-term support
• SUP 4: 116.030 Low Jan 3

Bobl futures trend conditions remain bullish and last week’s gains reinforce the current positive outlook. Price has recently cleared the 20-day EMA signalling potential for a continuation higher near-term. Attention is on 118.427 next, 61.8% of the Dec 7 - Jan 2 downleg. Initial firm support to watch lies at 116.950, the Jan 10 low. A break of this level would signal a likely reversal.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H3) Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 106.296 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 2 bear leg
• RES 3: 106.118 50.0% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 2 bear leg
• RES 2: 106.000 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 105.945 High Jan 13
• PRICE: 105.825 @ 05:10 GMT Jan 17
• SUP 1: 105.625/560 Low Jan 10 / 6
• SUP 2: 105.480 Low Jan 3
• SUP 3: 105.360 Low Jan 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 105.345 2.618 projection of the Dec 2 - 13 price swing

Schatz futures maintain a positive short-term tone and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Price has breached the 20-day EMA and this reinforces short-term bullish conditions. The focus is on 105.939, 38.2% of the Dec 2 - Jan 2 bear leg. It has been tested, a clear break would open the 106.000 handle. On the downside, the firm support to watch lies at 105.625, the Jan 10 low. A break would signal a reversal.

GILT TECHS: (H3) Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 106.18 High Dec 12
• RES 3: 106.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 105.20 76.4% retracement of the Nov 24 - Dec 28 bear leg
• RES 1: 104.94 High Jan 13
• PRICE: 103.95 @ Close Jan 16
• SUP 1: 103.43/102.78 Low Jan 16 / High Jan 6
• SUP 2: 102.19/101.40 Low Jan 11 / 10
• SUP 3: 99.97 Low Jan 3
• SUP 4: 99.18 Low Dec 28 and the bear trigger

Gilt futures remain in an uptrend. The contract has cleared resistance at 102.78, the Jan 6 high. The break higher maintains the current bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and attention is on 105.20, the 76.4% retracement of the Nov 24 - Dec 28 bear leg. Clearance of this level would signal scope for a climb towards 106.00. Firm and key short-term support has been defined at 101.40, Oct 10 low.

BTP TECHS: (H3) Uptrend Intact

• RES 4: 118.96 High Dec 7 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 117.93 High Dec 13
• RES 2: 117.12 High Dec 14
• RES 1: 116.57 High Jan 12
• PRICE: 115.25 @ Close Jan 16
• SUP 1: 114.46/113.75 Low Jan 16 / High Jan 9
• SUP 2: 111.59/110.77 Low Jan 6 / Low Jan 4
• SUP 3: 109.29 Low Jan 3
• SUP 4: 108.36 Low Dec 30 low and bear trigger

The current bull cycle in BTP futures remains intact and the contract traded higher last week. Price has recently cleared the 20-day EMA and last week’s rally resulted in a break of the 114.00 and 116.00 handles. The acceleration higher signals scope for a climb towards 117.93, the Dec 13 high. On the downside, a key support lies at 111.59, the Jan 6 low. Initial firm support is seen at 113.75, the Jan 9 high.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H3) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 116-04 2.0% 10-dma env
• RES 3: 116-00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 115-26 2.00 proj of the Oct 21 - 27 - Nov 3 low
• RES 1: 115-15+ High Jan 13
• PRICE: 114-21 @ 15:36 GMT Jan 16
• SUP 1: 113-26+/17 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 112-18+/111-28 Low Jan 5 / Low Dec 30 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 111-27+ 61.8% retracement of the Nov 3 - Dec 13 rally
• SUP 4: 111-01 76.4% retracement of the Nov 3 - Dec 13 rally

Treasury futures maintain a bullish tone but have pulled back from last week’s highs - a move lower is considered corrective. Price has recently pierced resistance at 115-11+, high Dec 13. A clear break would strengthen bullish conditions and open 115-26, a Fibonacci projection. Price has recently cleared the 100-dma and this reinforces the bullish theme. On the downside, initial support lies at 113-26+, the 20-day EMA.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H3) Northbound

• RES 4: 4269.50 2.236 proj of the Sep 29 - Oct 4 rise from Dec 20 low
• RES 3: 4230.50 High Feb 10, 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: 4215.00 2.00 proj of the Sep 29 - Oct 4 rise from Dec 20 low
• RES 1: 4191.00 Intraday high
• PRICE: 4153.00 @ 05:55 GMT Jan 17
• SUP 1: 4043.00 High Dec 13
• SUP 2: 3998.70/3893.90 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 3: 3753.00 Low Dec 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 3697.00 Low Nov 10

EUROSTOXX 50 futures bullish conditions remain intact and the contract traded to a fresh trend high Monday. Futures have recently cleared resistance at 4043.00, the Dec 13 high and a bull trigger. The break represents a key short-term positive development and paves the way for gains towards 4215.00 next, a Fibonacci projection. MA studies are in a bull-mode condition, reinforcing the bull theme. Initial firm support is at 3998.70.

E-MINI S&P (H3): Short-Term Conditions Remain Bullish

• RES 4: 4194.25 High Sep 13
• RES 3: 4180.00 High Dec 13 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 4090.75 High Dec 14
• RES 1: 4043.00 High Dec 15
• PRICE: 4002.50 @ 06:58 GMT Jan 17
• SUP 1: 3891.50 Low Jan 10
• SUP 2: 3788.50/78.45 Low Dec 22 / 61.8% of Oct 13-Dec 13 uptrend
• SUP 3: 3735.00 Low Nov 3
• SUP 4: 3670.00 76.4% retracement of the Oct 13 - Dec 13 uptrend

S&P E-Minis traded higher last week. The contract has cleared resistance at the 50-day EMA and this has strengthened the short-term bullish condition. Price has also traded above the 4000.00 handle to open 4043.00 next, the Dec 15 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 3788.50, the Dec 22 low. A reversal lower and a break of this support would resume bearish activity.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (H3) Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: $90.49 - High Nov 17
• RES 3: $89.18 - High Dec 1
• RES 2: $87.00 - High Jan 3 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $85.59 - High Jan 16
• PRICE: $84.72 @ 06:46 GMT Jan 17
• SUP 1: $82.45/77.61 - 20-day EMA / Low Jan 5
• SUP 2: $75.64 - Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $73.73 - 1.00 proj of the Nov 7 - 28 - Dec 1 price swing
• SUP 4: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)

Brent futures maintain a short-term bullish tone and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. A continuation higher would refocus attention on key short-term resistance at $87.00, the Jan 3 high where a break is required to strengthen bullish conditions. The broader trend direction remains down and a reversal lower would instead highlight a resumption of the trend and this would expose the bear trigger at $75.64, the Dec 9 low.

WTI TECHS: (G3) Corrective Bounce Still In Play

• RES 4: $84.10 - High Nov 17
• RES 3: $83.27 - High Dec 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $81.50 - High Jan 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $80.22 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $79.22 @ 07:04 GMT Jan 16
• SUP 1: $76.96/72.46 - 20-day EMA / Low Jan 5
• SUP 2: $70.31 - Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $68.19 - 1.236 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing
• SUP 4: $65.47 - 1.382 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing

WTI futures traded higher last week and a short-term bull theme remains intact. A continuation higher would signal scope for a test of resistance at $81.50, the Jan 3 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle is required to strengthen a bullish theme. The broader trend outlook still appears bearish. A reversal lower would expose the bear trigger that has been defined at $70.31, the Dec 9 low.

GOLD TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: $1998.4 - High Apr 18, 2022
• RES 3: $1982.0 - High Apr 19, 2022
• RES 2: $1963.0 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep 2022 bear leg
• RES 1: $1934.4 - High Apr 25, 2022
• PRICE: $1908.7 @ 07:16 GMT Jan 17
• SUP 1: $1874.4/50.4 - Low Jan 12 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1825.2 - Low Jan 5 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: $1797.1 - Low Dec 28
• SUP 4: $1774.0 - Low Dec 15

Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the yellow metal traded to a fresh trend high Monday. This confirms an extension on the current uptrend and maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note that moving average studies are in a bull mode position - reflecting the uptrend. The focus is on $1934.4 next, the Apr 25, 2022 high. Support to watch lies at $1850.4, the 20-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: $26.002 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $25.293 - High Apr 20
• RES 2: $24.729 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 1: $24.548 - High Jan 3 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $24.051 @ 07:19 GMT Jan 17
• SUP 1: $22.693 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $22.557 - Low Dec 16 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: $20.872 - Low Nov 28
• SUP 4: $20.585 - Low Nov 21

The uptrend in Silver remains bullish. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position and fresh trend highs in December reinforce the positive theme. Furthermore, the move higher has maintained the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on $24.729, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support has been defined at $22.557, the Dec 16 low.