MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Key Support In Gilts Remains Exposed

Price Signal Summary - Gilts Remain Vulnerable Ahead Of The Bear Trigger

• In the equity space, the S&P E-Minis broader trend direction remains down and attention is on the bear trigger at 3571.75, the Oct 3 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 3558.97, 1.382 projection of the Aug 16 - Sep 7 - 13 price swing. The EUROSTOXX 50 futures trend direction remains down too and a continuation lower would open the key support and bear trigger at 3236.00, the Oct 3 low. For bulls, a break above the 50-day EMA is required to highlight a stronger reversal. The average intersects at 3493.90.
• In FX, EURUSD remains in a bear cycle inside the channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. Indications are that the pair is likely to depreciate further near-term. The focus is on 0.9645, 76.4% of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 bull cycle and further out, 0.9536, the Sep 28 low and key support. At this stage, the recent move lower in GBPUSD appears to be a correction of the rally between Sep 26 - Oct 5. A continuation lower would open 1.0922 and 1.0787, 50.0% and 61.8% of the Sep 26 - Oct 5 bull cycle. Initial resistance is at 1.1241, the 20-day EMA. The USDJPY primary uptrend remains intact and sights are on the bull trigger and key resistance at 145.90, the Sep 22 high. A break would confirm a resumption of the trend and open 146.52, 1.236 projection of the May 24 - Jul 14 - Aug 2 price swing.
• On the commodity front, the strong reversal in Gold signals the end of the recovery between Sep 28 - Oct 4 and note that price has moved below the trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 8 high. A continuation lower would expose the key support at $1615.0, the Sep 28 low. In the Oil space, WTI futures traded higher last week and cleared both the 20- and 50 EMAs, strengthening a bullish theme. Attention is on $96.82, the Aug 30 high. Initial firm support lies at $87.53, the 50-day EMA. The pullback this week is considered corrective - for now.
• In the FI space, the broader bearish theme in Bund futures remains intact. The focus is on 135.52, the Sep 28 low and key support. A break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 135.27, the Mar 2012 low (cont). Gilt futures remain bearish following the reversal from last week’s high. The focus is on 90.99, Sep 28 low and bear trigger - a break would open 90.57, 2.618 projection of the May 12 - Jun 16 - Aug 2 swing (cont).

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Heading South

• RES 4: 1.0198 High Sep 12 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.0051 High Sep 20
• RES 2: 0.9963/9999 Bear channel top from Feb 10 high / High Oct 4
• RES 1: 0.9840 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.9678 @ 05:56 BST Oct 11
• SUP 1: 0.9645 76.4% retracement of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 bull cycle
• SUP 2: 0.9536 Low Sep 28 and key support
• SUP 3: 0.9501 1.382 projection of the Aug 10 - Sep 6 - 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.9424 Bear channel base drawn from the Feb 10 high

EURUSD remains in a bear cycle and is trading inside the channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. Last week’s reversal from 0.9999 marked a failure at the top of the channel and with moving average tools pointing south, indications are that the pair is likely to depreciate further near-term. The focus is on 0.9536, the Sep 28 low. 0.9999 is key resistance. Note that the channel top is just below at 0.9963 and also represents a key hurdle for bulls.

GBPUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 1.1738 High Sep 13 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.1590 High Sep 14
• RES 2: 1.1510 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.1241/1495 20-day EMA / High Oct 5 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.1035 @ 06:08 BST Oct 11
• SUP 1: 1.0922 50.0% retracement of Sep 26 - Oct 5 bull cycle
• SUP 2: 1.0787 61.8% retracement of Sep 26 - Oct 5 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 1.0541/0350 Low Sep 28 / All Time Low
• SUP 4: 1.0203 3.236 proj of the Jun 16 - Jul 14 - Aug 1 price swing

GBPUSD traded lower Monday, extending the pullback from last week’s high of 1.1495 on Oct 5. At this stage, the move lower appears to be a correction of the rally between Sep 26 - Oct 5. A continuation lower would open 1.0922 and 1.0787, Fibonacci retracement levels. Key support and the primary bear trigger is still far-off at 1.0350, the Sep 26 low. Key short-term resistance is at 1.1495, a break would resume recent bullish activity.

EURGBP TECHS: Support At The 50-Day EMA Intact

• RES 4: 0.9292 High Sep 11 2020
• RES 3: 0.9066/9266 High Sep 28 / High Sep 26 and key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8980 High Sep 29
• RES 1: 0.8850 High Sep 30
• PRICE: 0.8776 @ 06:23 BST Oct 11
• SUP 1: 0.8668/49 50-day EMA / Low Oct 4 and a key support zone
• SUP 2: 0.8626 Low Sep 1
• SUP 3: 0.8559 76.4% retracement of the Aug 2 - Sep 26 rally
• SUP 4: 0.8522 Low Aug 30

EURGBP last week bounced off the 50-day EMA. The average intersects at 0.8668 and remains a key support. This level, together with 0.8649, the Oct 4 low, defines an important short-term support zone where a break is required to reinstate recent bearish price action. This would open 0.8559, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance to watch is 0.8850, the Sep 30 high. A break would ease the bearish threat.

USDJPY TECHS: Approaching The Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 147.25 3.00 proj of the Aug 2 - 8 - 11 price swing
• RES 3: 146.52 1.236 proj of the May 24 - Jul 14 - Aug 2 price swing
• RES 2: 146.03 2.764 proj of the Aug 2 - 8 - 11 price swing
• RES 1: 145.90 High Sep 22 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 145.83 @ 06:36 BST Oct 11
• SUP 1: 143.87/141.77 20-day EMA / Low Sep 23
• SUP 2: 141.08 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 140.36 Low Sep 22, and key support
• SUP 4: 139.39 High Jul 14 and a former key resistance

USDJPY is holding on to its recent gains and has traded higher today. The primary uptrend remains intact and sights are on the bull trigger and key resistance at 145.90, the Sep 22 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the trend and open 146.03, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, clearance of 140.36 is required to highlight a top. Initial firm support is seen at 143.87, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Support Lies At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 147.76 1.236 proj of the May 12 - Jun 28 - Aug 2 price swing
• RES 3: 145.64 High Sep 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 144.48 High Sep 14
• RES 1: 142.22/144.09 High Oct 7 / 5
• PRICE: 141.18 @ 06:43 BST Oct 11
• SUP 1: 140.58 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 139.44/137.40 Low Sep 29 / 26 and key support
• SUP 3: 136.02 Low Aug 25
• SUP 4: 135.52 Low Aug 24

EURJPY traded lower Monday. The recent pullback has placed prices back below 143.70 - 76.4% of the Sep 12 - 26 downleg. The 50-day EMA, at 140.58, marks the next support. Moving average studies continue to highlight a broader uptrend and a resumption of gains would refocus attention on 144.09, the Oct 5 high. On the downside, a break of the 50-day EMA would instead strengthen a bearish threat.

AUDUSD TECHS: Resumes Its Downtrend

• RES 4: 0.6697 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 0.6656 High Sep 23
• RES 2: 0.6547 High Oct 4 and key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6432 High Oct 7
• PRICE: 0.6259@ 06:50 BST Oct 11
• SUP 1: 0.6248 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.6200 Round number support
• SUP 3: 0.6133 1.382 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6099 76.4% retracement of the 2020 - 2021 bull cycle

AUDUSD is trading lower once again today. The pair has cleared support at 0.6363, the Sep 28 low and bear trigger. The break confirms a resumption of the primary downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This opens the 0.6200 handle next as the downtrend extends. On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at 0.6547, the Oct 4 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Breaches Key Resistance

• RES 4: 1.4000 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 1.3970 3.236 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 7 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 1.3896 3.00 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 7 - 13 price swing
• RES 1: 1.3855 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.3837 @ 06:58 BST Oct 11
• SUP 1: 1.3676 Low Oct 7
• SUP 2: 1.3541/03 20-day EMA / Low Oct 4
• SUP 3: 1.3358 Low Sep 21
• SUP 4: 1.3298 50-day EMA

USDCAD remains in an uptrend and the latest recovery from 1.3503, Oct 10 high, reinforces bullish conditions. This low represents a key short-term support. Moving average studies continue to highlight an uptrend and bullish market sentiment. 1.3838, the Sep 30 high and key resistance has been breached. The break confirms a resumption of the broader uptrend and opens 1.3896, a Fibonacci projection.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z2) Approaching Key Support

• RES 4: 144.56 High Sep 12
• RES 3: 143.68 38.2% retracement of the Aug 2 - Sep 28 bear leg
• RES 2: 142.87 High Oct 4
• RES 1: 140.28 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 136.25 @ 05:15 BST Oct 11
• SUP 1: 135.83 Low Oct 10
• SUP 2: 135.52 Sep 28 low and key support
• SUP 3: 135.27 Low Mar 2012 (cont)
• SUP 4: 134.76 4.382 proj of the Aug 2 - 12 - 15 price swing

Bund futures are trading closer to their recent lows. The reversal from 142.87, Oct 4 high marked the end of the corrective bounce higher between Sep 28 - Oct 4. This reinforces the broader bearish theme and moving average studies remain in a bear mode position. The focus is on 135.52, the Sep 28 low and key support. Price needs to clear resistance at 142.87 to suggest scope for a stronger reversal.

BOBL TECHS: (Z2) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 122.510 High Sep 12
• RES 3: 121.950 High Oct 4 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 121.330 High Oct 5
• RES 1: 120.365 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 118.800 @ 05:23 BST Oct 11
• SUP 1: 118.630 Low Oct 10
• SUP 2: 118.020 Low Sep 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 117.918 2.382 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 117.630 2.50 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing

Bobl futures remain in a bearish mode and the contract is trading closer to its most recent lows. The reversal from 121.950, the Oct 4 high confirms the end of the corrective cycle between Sep 28 and Oct 4. The focus is on the key support and bear trigger at 118.020, the Sep 28 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the primary downtrend. On the upside, 121.950 marks key resistance.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z2) Bears Remains In The Driver's Seat

• RES 4: 108.010 High Sep 13
• RES 3: 107.770 High Oct 4 and key resistance
• RES 2: 107.610 High Oct 5
• RES 1: 107.288 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 106.875 @ 05:33 BST Oct 10
• SUP 1: 106.775 Low Oct 11
• SUP 2: 106.535 Low Sep 26 and key support
• SUP 3: 106.379 2.382 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 105.800 Low Nov 2008 (cont)

The primary trend direction in Schatz futures remains down and the recent corrective bounce appears to be over. The reversal from 107.770, Oct 4 high signals a resumption of the broader downtrend and attention is on the key support and bear trigger at 106.535, the Sep 26 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the primary downtrend. Key resistance has been defined at 107.770, where a break would highlight a stronger reversal.

GILT TECHS: (Z2) Approaching Key Support

• RES 4: 105.34 High Sep 22
• RES 3: 102.45 High Sep 23
• RES 2: 100.92 High Oct 4 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 95.79/99.22 High Oct 7 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 92.29 @ Close Oct 10
• SUP 1: 91.46 Low Oct 10
• SUP 2: 90.99 Low Sep 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 90.57 2.618 proj of the May 12 - Jun 16 - Aug 2 swing (cont)
• SUP 4: 90.00 Psychological round number

The recent short-term bounce in Gilt futures has reversed and resistance has been defined at 100.92, the Oct 4 high. The reversal from last week’s high means the 20-day EMA capped gains and this average remains a key short-term resistance. The EMA intersects at 99.22 today. Yesterday’s extension reinforces bearish conditions and exposes key support at 90.99. On the upside, 99.22 to 100.92, is the key resistance zone.

BTP TECHS: (Z2) Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 119.06 High Sep 8 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 118.51 High Sep 13
• RES 2: 117.05 High Sep 22
• RES 1: 114.09/116.71 20-day EMA / High Oct 4
• PRICE: 110.59 @ Close Oct 10
• SUP 1: 109.50 Low Oct 11
• SUP 2: 108.13 Low Sep 28 and key support
• SUP 3: 107.27 2.382 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - 8 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.68 2.618 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - 8 price swing

The BTP futures trend condition remains bearish and yesterday’s extension lower reinforces this condition. The reversal last week from 116.71, the Oct 4 high, signals the end of the corrective cycle between Sep 28 - Oct 4. A continuation lower would open the key support and bear trigger at 108.13, the Sep 28 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend. 116.71 marks the key resistance.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z2) Approaching The Bear Trigger

• RES 4: 116-11 50.0% retracement of the Aug 2 - Sep 28 bear leg
• RES 3: 115-09+ 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 114-31+ 38.2% retracement of the Aug 2 - Sep 28 bear leg
• RES 1: 113-11/30 20-day EMA / High Oct 4 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 111-01 @ 19:07 BST Oct 10
• SUP 1: 110-19 Low Sep 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 110-00 Psychological Support
• SUP 3: 109-23+ Low Nov 30 2007 (cont)
• SUP 4: 108.27+ 3.0% 10-dma envelope

Treasuries remain soft and the contract has traded lower once again today. The reversal last week from 113-30, the Oct 4 high, marks the end of the correction between Sep 28 - Oct 4. Moving average studies remain in a bear mode position and attention is on the key support and bear trigger at 110-19, Sep 28 low. A break would confirm a resumption of the primary downtrend. Price needs to break above 113-30 to reinstate a short-term bullish theme.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z2) Remains Below The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 3692.00 High Aug 26
• RES 3: 3678.00 High Sep 13 and bull trigger
• RES 2: 3539.10 Trendline resistance drawn from the Aug 17 high
• RES 1: 3492.00/3493.90 High Oct 6 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 3338.00 @ 09:14 BST Oct 11
• SUP 1: 3314.00 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 3236.00/3229.00 Low Oct 3 / Low Nov 9 2020 (cont)
• SUP 3: 3163.00 Low Nov 6 2020
• SUP 4: 3143.20 1.382 proj of the Aug 17 - Sep 5 - 13 price swing

EUROSTOXX 50 futures faced resistance last week at 3492.00 on Oct 6. This also highlights the fact that the 50-day EMA, at 3493.90, remains intact and continues to provide resistance. The broader trend direction remains down and a continuation lower would open the key support and bear trigger at 3236.00, the Oct 3 low. For bulls, a break above the 50-day EMA is required to highlight a stronger trend reversal.

E-MINI S&P (Z2): Bear Trigger Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 4234.25 High Aug 26
• RES 3: 4175.00 High Sep 13 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 3897.73 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 3820.00 High Oct 5
• PRICE: 3608.25 @ 06:43 BST Oct 11
• SUP 1: 3571.75 Low Oct 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3558.97 1.382 proj of the Aug 16 - Sep 7 - 13 price swing
• SUP 3: 3506.38 1.50 proj of the Aug 16 - Sep 7 - 13 price swing
• SUP 4: 3453.78 1.618 proj of the Aug 16 - Sep 7 - 13 price swing

S&P E-Minis remains below last week’s high of 3820.00 on Oct 5. This level marks a key resistance, where a break is required to reinstate a short-term bullish theme. The broader trend remains down and attention is on the bear trigger at 3571.75, the Oct 3 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend and open 3558.97, a Fibonacci projection.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Z2) Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: $107.41 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 6 - Sep 26 bear leg
• RES 3: $104.62 - High Jul 5
• RES 2: $101.39 - High Aug 30 and key resistance
• RES 1: $98.75 - High Oct 10
• PRICE: $95.93 @ 06:57 BST Oct 11
• SUP 1: $92.60 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $85.00/82.44 - Low Sep 30 / Low Sep 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $81.97 - 1.618 proj of the Jul 29 - Aug 5 - 30 price swing
• SUP 4: $80.22 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 29 - Aug 17 - 30 price swing

Last week's gains in Brent futures resulted in a break of both the 20-day and 50-day EMAs. The clear break and strong weekly close strengthened the short-term bullish condition and highlights a stronger reversal. This has opened $101.39, the Aug 30 high and the next key resistance. A break would further reinforce a bullish theme. Initial firm support to watch lies at $92.60, the 50-day EMA. Short-term pullbacks are considered corrective.

WTI TECHS: (X2) Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: $104.31 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 8 - Sep 26 downleg
• RES 3: $98.95 - 61.8% retracement of the Jun 8 - Sep 26 downleg
• RES 2: $96.82 - High Aug 31 and key resistance
• RES 1: $93.64 - High Aug 10
• PRICE: $90.90 @ 07:02 BST Oct 11
• SUP 1: $87.53 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $79.14/76.25 - Low Sep 30 / Low Sep 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $75.70 - Low Jan 24
• SUP 4: $71.22 - 2.00 proj of the Jul 29 - Aug 16 - 30 price swing

WTI futures traded higher last week and in the process, cleared both the 20- and 50 EMAs. This has strengthened the bullish theme and signals scope for a continuation higher. Attention is on the next key resistance at 96.82, the Aug 30 high. A break would further strengthen a bullish outlook. Initial firm support lies at $87.53, the 50-day EMA. Key support is still far off at $76.25, the Sep 26 low.

GOLD TECHS: Reversal Lower Extends

• RES 4: $1765.5 - High Aug 25
• RES 3: $1745.6 - High Sep 29
• RES 2: $1735.1 - High Sep 12 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $1729.5 - High Oct 4 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1667.3 @ 07:17 BST Oct 11
• SUP 1: $1659.7 - Low Oct 3
• SUP 2: $1615.0 - Low Sep 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $1610.5 - 1.00 proj of the Jun 13 - Jul 21 - Aug 10 swing
• SUP 4: $1569.1 - Low Apr 1 2020

The recent recovery in Gold stalled last week at $1729.5, the Oct 4 high. The strong reversal signals the end of the recovery between Sep 28 - Oct 4 and note that price has moved below the trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 8 high. A continuation lower would expose the key support and bear trigger at $1615.0, the Sep 28 low. On the upside, a break of $1729.5 is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

SILVER TECHS: Breaches The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $22.253 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar 8 - Sep 1 bear cycle
• RES 3: $21.967 - High Jun 17
• RES 2: $21.540 - High Jun 27
• RES 1: $21.242 - High Oct 4 and key resistance
• PRICE: $19.385 @ 08:07 BST Oct 11
• SUP 1: $19.052 - Low Oct 3
• SUP 2: $17.967/562 - Low Sep 28 / Low Sep 1 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: $16.955 - Low Jun 15 2020
• SUP 4: $16.473 - 1.00 proj of the Jun 6 - Jul 14 - Aug 10 price swing

Silver found resistance last week at $21.242 on Oct 4. The reversal has resulted in a print below the 50-day EMA, at $19.561. This suggests potential for a continuation lower and the metal is trading lower today. Attention is on $19.052, the Oct 3 low. A break would expose $17.967, the Sep 28 low. Key resistance is at $21.242, where a break is required to reinstate a bullish theme and a stronger reversal