MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Key Support In Gold Remains Exposed

Price Signal Summary - Gold Remains Vulnerable As It Approaches Key Support

• In the equity space, S&P E-Minis remain vulnerable. The sharp sell-off Tuesday, threatens the recent recovery. Attention is on the key short-term support at 3900.00, Sep 7 low and a bear trigger. A break would strengthen a bearish case and signal scope for deeper pullback. Tuesday’s high of 4175.00 represents an important near-term resistance. EUROSTOXX 50 futures faced strong resistance on Tuesday. The sharp move lower threatens the recent short-term recovery and signals the end of what has likely been a corrective cycle. A deeper pullback would refocus attention on a key short-term support at 3429.00, the Sep 5 low. Tuesday’s high of 3685.00 is the short-term bull trigger.
• In FX, EURUSD traded sharply lower Tuesday and remains inside its bear channel, drawn from the Feb 10 high. The channel top intersects at 1.0122 and is a key resistance. A close above this level would highlight a channel breakout. For bears, an extension lower would expose the bear trigger at 0.9864, the Sep 6 low. GBPUSD reversed lower Tuesday, reinforcing bearish conditions and signalling the end of the recent corrective bounce. Key support at 1.1412, Mar 20 2020 low, has recently been pierced. A clear break would strengthen bearish conditions and resume the broader downtrend. Initial resistance is at Tuesday’s high of 1.1738. USDJPY key short-term resistance at 144.99, Sep 7 high, remains intact - for now. The trend outlook is bullish and a break of 144.99 would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. This would open 145.28 and 146.03, the 2.618 and 2.764 projection of the Aug 2 - 8 - 11 price swing. Initial firm support is at 141.51, Sep 9 low. A strong support also lies at the 20-day EMA, at 140.48.
• On the commodity front, Gold remains in a downtrend and has traded lower today. The focus is on $1681.0, the Jul 21 low and a key bear trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend. Initial firm resistance is at $1735.1, Monday’s high. In the Oil space, WTI futures continue to trade closer to recent highs. The latest recovery is considered corrective and a bearish threat remains present following the sharp sell-off between Aug 30 - Sep 8. Firm resistance is seen at $91.71, the 50-day EMA. A reversal lower would refocus attention on $81.20, the Sep 8 low and bear trigger.
• In the FI space, Bund futures remain in a clear downtrend. A bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs remains intact, clearly highlighting current sentiment. The focus is on the 142.00 handle. Gilts remain vulnerable and touched a fresh trend low of 104.47 yesterday. Attention is on 103.87, 2.00 projection of the Aug 22 - 24 - 26 price swing.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 1.0368 High Aug 10 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.0327 High Aug 12
• RES 2: 1.0198/0249 High Sep 12 / 76.4% of Aug 10 - Sep 6 downleg
• RES 1: 1.0122 Bear channel top drawn from the Feb 10 high
• PRICE: 0.9970 @ 05:56 BST Sep 15
• SUP 1: 0.9956 Low Sep 14
• SUP 2: 0.9931/9864 Low Sep 8 / 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.9800 Round number support
• SUP 4: 0.9785 2.00 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing

EURUSD remains vulnerable. The pair traded sharply lower Tuesday and remains inside its bear channel, drawn from the Feb 10 high. The channel top intersects at 1.0122 and this level marks a key resistance point. A close above it is required to highlight a channel breakout. This would signal scope for a stronger recovery towards 1.0249 initially, a Fibonacci retracement. An extension lower would expose the bear trigger at 0.9864, the Sep 6 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.2004 Low Aug 5
• RES 3: 1.1890 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.1783 High Aug 29
• RES 1: 1.1738 High Sep 13
• PRICE: 1.1522 @ 06:02 BST Sep 15
• SUP 1: 1.1480 Low Sep 14
• SUP 2: 1.1412/06 Low Mar 20 2020 and major support / Low Sep 7
• SUP 3: 1.1324 1.50 proj of the Jun 16 - Jul 14 - Aug 1 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1300 Round number support

The reversal lower in GBPUSD on Tuesday reinforces bearish conditions, signalling the end of the recent corrective bounce. A bearish sequence of lower lows and lower highs continues to highlight a broader bear cycle. Attention is on key support at 1.1412, the Mar 20 2020 low, that has recently been pierced. A clear break would strengthen bearish conditions. Initial resistance is at Tuesday’s high of 1.1738.

EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 0.8852 50.0% retracement of the 2020 - 2022 downleg
• RES 3: 0.8840 High Feb 2
• RES 2: 0.8811 1.236 proj of the Apr 14 - Jun 15 - Aug 2 price swing
• RES 1: 0.8721/22 High Jun 15 / High Sep 12
• PRICE: 0.8653 @ 06:20 BST Sep 15
• SUP 1: 0.8593 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8567 Low Sep 6 and a key short-term support
• SUP 3: 0.8536 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.8471 Low Aug 29

The recent pullback in EURGBP is considered corrective. The cross maintains a bullish tone and attention is on key resistance at 0.8721, the Jun 15 high and an important bull trigger. This level was pierced Monday. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the bull cycle that started early March and open 0.8811, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial firm support is unchanged at 0.8567, the Sep 6 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 147.25 3.00 proj of the Aug 2 - 8 - 11 price swing
• RES 3: 146.52 1.236 proj of the May 24 - Jul 14 - Aug 2 price swing
• RES 2: 146.03 2.764 proj of the Aug 2 - 8 - 11 price swing
• RES 1: 144.99/145.28 High Sep 7 / 2.618 proj of Aug 2 - 8 - 11 swing
• PRICE: 143.55 @ 06:30 BST Sep 15
• SUP 1: 141.51 Low Sep 9
• SUP 2: 140.48 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 139.87 Low Sep 2
• SUP 4: 137.65 50-day EMA

USDJPY trend signals remain bullish. Key short-term resistance is at 144.99, Sep 7 high. The uptrend is intact and a breach of 144.99 would confirm a resumption of bullish activity. This would open 145.28 and 146.03, Fibonacci projections. On the downside, initial firm support has been defined at 141.51, the Sep 9 low. A strong support also lies at the 20-day EMA, at 140.48. A break of this 141.51-140.48 zone is required to highlight a short-term top.

EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 147.56 2.50 proj of the Aug 2- 10 - 16 price swing
• RES 3: 146.97 2.382 proj of the Aug 2- 10 - 16 price swing
• RES 2: 146.23 2.236 proj of the Aug 2- 10 - 16 price swing
• RES 1: 145.64 High Sep 9 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 143.10 @ 06:35 BST Sep 15
• SUP 1: 142.30/141.37 Low Sep 14 / 7
• SUP 2: 140.83 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 139.44 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 138.69 Low Sep 5

EURJPY remains below Monday’s high. The outlook is bullish and the latest move lower is likely a correction. The recent break of 144.28, Jun 28 high and a major resistance, reinforced bullish conditions and confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started in March 2022. This has opened 146.23, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is seen at 140.83, the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA lies at 139.44 and also represents an important support.

AUDUSD TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 0.7034 76.4% retracement of the Aug 11 - Sep 7 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.7009 High Aug 26 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 0.6970 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Sep 7 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.6837/6916 20-day EMA / High Sep 13
• PRICE: 0.6749 @ 06:51 BST Sep 15
• SUP 1: 0.6699 Low Sep 7
• SUP 2: 0.6682 Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6647 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6612 Low May 29

A bearish theme in AUDUSD remains intact and the sharp sell-off Tuesday confirmed the end of a recent corrective bounce. Tuesday’s high of 0.6916 marks a key short-term resistance. Attention is on initial support at 0.6699, the Sep 7 low and 0.6682, the Jul 14 low. A break of these two chart points would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend, strengthen bearish conditions and would open 0.6647 initially, a Fibonacci projection.

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Focus

• RES 4: 1.3377 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.3300 High Nov 4 2020
• RES 2: 1.3224 High Jul 14 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.3209 High Sep 7
• PRICE: 1.3179 @ 07:56 BST Sep 15
• SUP 1: 1.3058/2954 20-day EMA / Low Sep 13
• SUP 2: 1.2895 Low Aug 25 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 1.2828 Low Aug 17
• SUP 4: 1.2770 Low Aug 15

A USDCAD bullish theme remains intact and Tuesday's strong rally has reinforced this theme. The bounce signals the end of the recent correction lower. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull mode set-up, highlighting bullish market sentiment. Attention is on key resistance at 1.3324, the Jul 14 high and a bull trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the broader uptrend. Support to watch is at 1.2954, Tuesday’s low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z2) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 148.97 High Aug 25
• RES 3: 148.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 145.82/146.81 High Sep 8 / High Sep 5
• RES 1: 144.56 High Sep 12
• PRICE: 143.47 @ 04:59 BST Sep 15
• SUP 1: 142.46 2.618 proj of the Aug 2 - 12 - 15 price swing
• SUP 2: 142.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 140.90 2.764 proj of the Aug 2 - 12 - 15 price swing
• SUP 4: 140.67 Low Jun 16 2022 and a key support (cont)

Bund futures are consolidating. The contract remains in a bear mode and is trading closer to its recent lows. Futures are retracing the bull leg between Jun 16 - Aug 2 and a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs remains intact. Moving average studies also highlight a bearish theme. The focus is on the 142.00 handle next. Firm resistance is at 146.81, the Sep 5 high. Gains would be considered corrective.

BOBL TECHS: (Z2) Bear trend Conditions Intact

• RES 4: 124.670 High Aug 25
• RES 3: 124.000 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 123.160/123.730 High Sep 8 / High Sep 6 and key resistance
• RES 1: 122.510 High Sep 12
• PRICE: 121.830 @ 05:09 BST Sep 15
• SUP 1: 121.280/120.990 Low Sep 9 / Low Jun 21 (cont)
• SUP 2: 120.358 1.382 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 3: 119.940 Low Jun 16 and key support (cont)
• SUP 4: 119.782 1.618 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing

Bobl futures are consolidating but the outlook remains bearish and the break lower last week marked a resumption of the downtrend. Attention is on 120.990, the Jun 21 low (cont). The contract continues to retrace the mid-June to early August climb. Scope is also seen for a move to 119.940, the Jun 16 major support (cont). On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 123.730, the Sep 6 high. A break would highlight a short-term base.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z2) Trend Direction Remains Down

• RES 4: 109.280 High Aug 17
• RES 3: 109.000 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 108.845 High Aug 25
• RES 1: 108.045/570 High Sep 9 / 6 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: 107.625 @ 09:54 BST Sep 15
• SUP 1: 107.600 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 107.470 1.00 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 2 price swing
• SUP 3: 107.253 1.236 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 2 price swing
• SUP 4: 107.00 Round number support

The Schatz futures trend direction remains down and the contract has traded to a fresh trend low today, confirming again an extension of the bear cycle. This also maintains the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs with moving average studies in a bear mode position. The focus is on 107.470, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm firm resistance is seen at 108.570, the Sep 6 high.

GILT TECHS: (Z2) Fresh Trend Low

• RES 4: 112.43 High Aug 22
• RES 3: 111.54 High Aug 23
• RES 2: 109.47/110.85 High Aug 31 / 26 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 106.84/107.93 High Sep 8 / High Sep 1
• PRICE: 105.48 @ Close Sep 14
• SUP 1: 104.47 Low Sep 14
• SUP 2: 103.87 2.00 projection of the Aug 22 - 24 - 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 103.05 2.236 projection of the Aug 22 - 24 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 102.54 2.382 projection of the Aug 22 - 24 - 26 price swing

Gilt futures traded to a fresh trend low Wednesday of 104.47. The contract remains vulnerable and the bearish impulsive run that started early August suggests scope for an extension. The breach on Aug 30 of 108.94, Aug 24 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Attention is on 103.87, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 107.93, the Sep 1 high.

BTP TECHS: (Z2) Bears Pause For Breath

• RES 4: 122.59 High Aug 19
• RES 3: 121.32 High Aug 25
• RES 2: 120.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 119.06 High Sep 8
• PRICE: 117.07 @ Close Sep 14
• SUP 1: 115.60 Low Sep 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 115.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 113.78 Low Jun 14 and key support
• SUP 4: 111.62 1.236 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - 5 price swing

BTP futures are consolidating. The trend remains down and short-term gains are considered corrective. A bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs highlights the current bearish theme as the contract continues to retrace the mid-June - early August rally. The focus is on the 115.00 handle next ahead of the major support at 113.78, Jun 14 low (cont). On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 119.06, the Sep 8 high.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z2) Approaching Key Support

• RES 4: 119-01 High Aug 18
• RES 3: 118-00 High Aug 26
• RES 2: 117-28 50 day EMA values
• RES 1: 116-04+/26 High Sep 13 / 2
• PRICE: 114-30 @ 16:56 BST Sep 14
• SUP 1: 114-17 Low Sep 14
• SUP 2: 114-06 Low Jun 14 and a key support
• SUP 3: 114-00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 113-19 Low Sep 19 2019 (cont)

Treasuries remain soft, with prices only undergoing a minor bounce Wednesday. Tuesday’s break confirmed a resumption of the current bear cycle that started Aug 2. Sights are on the key support at 114-06, the Jun 14 low. A break of this level would confirm an important technical break and highlight a resumption of the broader downtrend, exposing the 114-00 handle. Initial firm resistance is at 116-26, the Sep 2 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U2) Reversal Threat Still Present

• RES 4: 3822/40.00 High Aug 17 / High Jun 6 and key resistance zone
• RES 3: 3782.00 High Aug 18
• RES 2: 3705.00 High Aug 26 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 3685.00 High Sep 13
• PRICE: 3570.00 @ 05:24 BST Sep 15
• SUP 1: 3504.00/3429.00 Low Sep 9 / Low Sep 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3386.00 Low Jul 15
• SUP 3: 3362.00 Low Jul 14
• SUP 4: 3343.00 Low Jul 5 and the bear trigger

EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded faced strong resistance Tuesday as equity markets pulled back from recent highs. The sharp move lower threatens the recent short-term recovery and also signals the end of what has likely been a corrective cycle. A deeper pullback would refocus attention on a key short-term support at 3429.00, the Sep 5 low. Tuesday’s high of 3685.00 is the short-term bull trigger.

E-MINI S&P (Z2): Reversal Exposes Key Short-Term Support

• RES 4: 4345.75 High Aug 16 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 4313.50 High Aug 18
• RES 2: 4234.25 High Aug 26
• RES 1: 4175.00/47 High Sep 13 / 61.8% of Aug 16 - Sep 7 downleg
• PRICE: 3966.75 @ 07:14 BST Sep 15
• SUP 1: 3900.00 Low Sep 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3851.50 Low Jul 19
• SUP 3: 3741.75 Low Jul 14
• SUP 4: 3657.00 Low Jun 17 and a major support

A strong reversal in S&P E-Minis Tuesday, threatens the recent recovery and the contract remains vulnerable. A continuation lower would expose the key short-term support at 3900.00, Sep 7 low and a bear trigger. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish case and signal scope for deeper pullback. Tuesday’s high of 4175.00 represents an important near-term resistance. A break is required to resume bullish activity.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (X2) Bear Threat Still Present

• RES 4: $107.30 - High Jul 5
• RES 3: $103.86 - High Jul 29 and key resistance
• RES 2: $96.57 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $95.80 - High Sep 14
• PRICE: $94.02 @ 07:48 BST Sep 15
• SUP 1: $87.24 - Low Sep 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $86.54 - Low Mar 9 and a key support
• SUP 3: $82.59 - 1.618 proj of the Jul 29 - Aug 17 - 30 price swing
• SUP 4: $80.71 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 29 - Aug 17 - 30 price swing

Brent futures are holding on to the bulk of recent gains. The outlook remains bearish though following the recent sell-off. This resulted in a break of two important support levels; $90.95, the Aug 17 low and $89.06, the Jul 14 low and bear trigger. The break of $89.06 highlights a resumption of the downtrend that started early August and has opened $86.54, the Mar 9 low. The next firm resistance is seen at the 50-day EMA - it intersects at $96.57.

WTI TECHS: (V2) Bearish Threat Remains Present Despite Bounce

• RES 4: $105.00 - High Jul 5
• RES 3: $99.75 - High Jul 29 and key resistance
• RES 2: $91.71/97.66 - 50-day EMA / High Aug 30
• RES 1: $90.19 - High Sep 14
• PRICE: $88.49 @ 07:53 BST Sep 15
• SUP 1: $81.20 - Low Sep 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $79.83 - Low Feb 18
• SUP 3: $78.54 - Low Feb 1
• SUP 4: $76.47 - Low Jan 24

A bearish threat in WTI futures remains present following last week’s sell-off and break of support at $85.37, the Aug 16 low. The breach confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started Jun 8 and also highlights the end of a broad sideways move that has been in place since mid-July. The focus is on $79.83 next, the Feb 18 low. The next firm resistance is at $91.84, the 50-day EMA. Recent short-term gains are considered corrective.

GOLD TECHS: Approaching Key Support

• RES 4: $1783.2 - High Aug 16
• RES 3: $1765.5 - High Aug 25 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $1749.3 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $1735.1 - High Sep 12
• PRICE: $1687.1 @ 08:07 BST Sep 15
• SUP 1: $1681.0 - Low Jul 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $1676.9 - Low Mar 8 2021
• SUP 3: $1671.0 - Low Jun 5 2020
• SUP 4: $1657.1 - 0.764 proj of the Jun 13 - Jul 21 - Aug 10 swing

Gold remains in a clear downtrend and is trading lower reinforcing a bearish theme. Support at $1727.8, Aug 22 low has recently been breached - this confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle that started Aug 10. Attention is on $1681.0, the Jul 21 low and a key bear trigger. Clearance of this level would resume the broader downtrend that started early March. Initial firm resistance is at $1735.1, Monday’s high.

SILVER TECHS: Holding On To The Bulk Of Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: $21.967 - High Jun 17
• RES 3: $21.540 - High Jun 27
• RES 2: $20.876 - High Aug 15 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $20.014 - High Sep 12
• PRICE: $19.376 @ 08:09 BST Sep 15
• SUP 1: $18.845/17.562 - Low Sep 12 / Low Sep 1 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $16.955 - Low Jun 15 2020
• SUP 3: $16.473 - 1.00 proj of the Jun 6 - Jul 14 - Aug 10 price swing
• SUP 4: $15.998 - 76.4% retracement of the 2020 - 2021 bull leg

Silver traded sharply higher Monday and this has placed a recent bearish theme on hold - for now. The strong recovery has resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50- day EMAs. The climb signals scope for an extension towards a key resistance at 20.876, the Aug 15 high. On the downside, initial support is seen at Monday’s low of $18.845. A break of this level would signal a reversal of recent gains. Note that the broader trend direction remains down.